Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?

[Major League Ready]

29 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Where would Spencer Steer and CES be playing? What position would either of them even threaten to overtake?

 

Hard to compare the Twins situation to Baltimore's because they drafted several stars at the very top of the draft. It's not like the Twins would be trading away all their talent either considering over half their starting lineup is homegrown.

Are you kidding?  We would be in much better shape had they not invested so heavily in a team that was not even close to being a real contender.

CES would be the starting 1B.  He started off a little slow but he was already a beast the last 6 weeks of the season.  He could be an elite hitter.  Kirilloff would play both OF and 1B.  CES would play 1B/DH and could also cover 3B when Lewis is out, has a day-off or covers SS when Correa is out.  CES would look great on this roster.  Steer takes Farmer's spot or even Polanco's spot.  He is a much better hitter than Farmer and he can play in the OF,  Farmer's 6.6M or Polanco's $10.5M goes toward a RP or part of the investment in a SP.  The two of them would fit here exceptionally well right now.

[Craig Arko]

They may have to. They need a quality starter and they don’t come cheap.

[Brett]

We’re asking a lot of Lewis, Correa and Julien to stay both healthy and effective for a whole year. Polanco and Farmer are an effective veteran mitigation plan, but there’s no guarantee one or both of them isn’t traded in order to save money.

I can imagine a future without Lee, but it looks a lot like this year’s offense (without Gallo, but still). The future I would like to see is Lee starting in St. Paul and stepping onto the grass at Target Field.

So yes, go get us a starter. But not at the cost of Brooks Lee.

[Hunter McCall]

14 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I’m not saying he is ready in April but I do think in the next year, he will be on the varsity because he forces his way there. 
we traded Arraez because Julien and Lee we’re waiting behind him so if you go apples to apples. Its Polo and Farmer that you trade. You also have to identify the player and a team willing to do a trade. Good luck getting a Pablo for a miner leaguer vs. a batting champ

I'm not sure you understand how trading works in MLB. As the 18th ranked prospect on MLBPipeline, Brooks Lee is more than valuable enough to acquire a guy comparable to Lopez. Also neither Farmer nor Polanco hold enough value to do the same.

[Dman]

18 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Again though that's assuming he's an elite hitter. I also doubt he'll ever play much shortstop.

He doesn't have to play much shortstop but he can if needed.  If your shortstop is injured for significant period that can be a big deal.  Can't assume anything but not many and I can't think of any Twins prospect that made it to AAA in their first pro full season.  His Dad is a hitting coach odds are he is going to figure it out and IMO more likely on the elite side than average or below.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Who is the pitcher you trade Lee for? It had better be someone with more than 3 years team control who would immediately step ahead of pre-injury Joe Ryan of 2023. The list of guys is pretty short right?

George Kirby

Brandon Pfaadt

Kyle Bradish

Hunter Greene

Eury Perez

Grayson Rodriguez

Paul Skenes

Mick Abel

Reid Detmers

Spencer Strider

Tanner Bibee

Bobby Miller

It's the list of pitchers nobody is going to trade.

[Hunter McCall]

16 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t understand the desperation for pitching. I agree with trying to supplement the current staff but the Twins were 15-19 in Sonny Gray’s starts in ‘23…….it doesn’t matter how high quality of performance he had in games they didn’t win ……..an odd thinking but realistic. Obviously, the better the pitcher throws the better chance for a win! However, we have 3 guys that project, maybe 4 if Ryan quits giving up so many HR, to have ERA under 4.00. Do we think that there is no way Louie Varland can go .500 as our 5th starter?

We do need depth!

Gray pitched well in one playoff game (with a pick-off at 2B to get out of a jam) & not very good at all in another.

The other issue I don’t understand is our willingness to only trade for pitching but an affinity to go out & sign a 1B or OF via FA.

There are guys out there that can be signed for a year or two at $11 -$14M per year for one or two years. Not too expensive!

Keep Lee - play him at 3B - move Lewis to LF or 1B where he can hit & stay healthy. Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B & trade Polanco to afford pitching. If Wallner’s hitting we could move Kepler in July & shift Lewis to LF. Buxton doesn’t allow Twins to have DH options.

Pitching is certainly a must but we can’t afford to trade 1st round picks (bats) that are evolving and have a reasonable ceiling! Other ways to get arms via trade, if desired, w/o giving up Lee……….Rodriguez - Festa - Miranda - Gordon - Larnach - Polanco ……….younger prospects, etc.

Seems with Martin coming & capable in CF & Jenkins destined there in 2-3 years, Rodriguez could be our most viable carrot in a trade.

The pitching staff will take a step back in 2024 if they don't find someone who can win games at the top of the rotation. I think Varland should stay in the bullpen.

I don't think moving Lewis to first base is a good idea.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, DJL44 said:

George Kirby Agreed, they aren't trading him

Brandon Pfaadt I seriously doubt they discuss him

Kyle Bradish I agree, they wouldn't trade him, and I wouldn't trade Lee for him either.

Hunter Greene I agree, he isn't going anywhere.

Eury Perez Nope, Marlins aren't moving him for anything.

Grayson Rodriguez Nope, Baltimore isn't moving him.

Paul Skenes I don't see Pittsburgh moving him for anything at this point.

Mick Abel As of 12/1/23, I would not trade Lee for Abel. Too unproven. I want someone who can step in now as a playoff starter.

Reid Detmers I can absolutely see the Angels making moves. I wouldn't trade Lee for Detmers though, that's too expensive.

Spencer Strider Nope, Atlanta isn't moving him.

Tanner Bibee Cleveland wouldn't trade him in division, but this is interesting as a thought.

Bobby Miller This is a fun one too. Could I see the Dodgers listening on him? Sure. I don't know if I see this as a team for a fit though.

It's the list of pitchers nobody is going to trade.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

The pitching staff will take a step back in 2024 if they don't find someone who can win games at the top of the rotation. I think Varland should stay in the bullpen.

I don't think moving Lewis to first base is a good idea.

I do think, eventually, Lee will be the 3b and Lewis at 2b. Brock Beauchamp mentioned that a bit ago, and it makes a world of sense to me.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

LOL,  this thread reminds me,  we need to switch to decaf 😁.  We seem to be getting worried about details and possibilities that should be figured out in the offseason.  I am glad we have Lee and Julien, I am also glad we have Pablo.  I trust management will do its best to put a quality team on the field next year,  just like they have done since they got here.   The pitching staff is night and day better than 2018 to 2020 and we are finally starting to establish a bit of a pipeline in the minors.   

[mnfireman]

9 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

But you can't really say he was down in the minors for three years because he wasn't lol

I never said that, but yes he was.... '21 A, A+, '22 AA, '23 AAA, He also made it to MLB in '23, but all or parts of 3 seasons in the minors. This will be Lee's third minor league season and he will also be starting it in AAA. If he not called up early, it will be because no one got injured, but I imagine by summer he is pushing hard for a roster spot. Lee is also 2 years younger and most likely will have played fewer games in the minors. 

 

[Blyleven2011]

55 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

I feel like saying he hasn't dominated the minors and using the fact he hasn't hit higher than an .850 OPS at any level is disingenuous.  He was drafted in 2022, so 2023 was his first full year in the minors, which means he's been pushed very quickly up the ladder.  In 2022 he had 4 games in Rookie ball, then only 25 games in A+, and then 2 games in AA.  He had an OPS of .848 in A+ that season.  He then started in AA in 2023 and in his first 47 games had an OPS of .757, however in his last 40 games he had an OPS of .934. So, it clearly took him some time to adjust to AA and then he dominated. 

He was promoted to AAA and struggled the first 21 games with an OPS of .658, however over the last 17 games he had an OPS of .829.  So, again he clearly took some time to adjust to AAA and then hit well.

 

Overall, he's only played 156 minor league games and 38 of those are at AAA.  If he's given enough time at a certain level he will likely hit well above .850 OPS.

Good analysis  ...

[SF Twins Fan]

34 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Again, I've said it from the beginning, I think Lee will be good, I just don't think he's some untouchable Hall of Fame prospect that the Twins shouldn't consider trading. I think it would be what's best for the Minnesota Twins at this moment to trade Brooks Lee for assets to help win right now.

I don't believe any prospect, other than Jenkins, should be untouchable but the Twins would have to be blown away to trade a player like Lee.  I'm talking a pitcher with more upside than Lopez and more years under team control.  He's going to be a multiple time all-star.  He'll likely be an above average defender and hitter that has intangibles like situational awareness you get by growing up with a coach as a father.  His value should be a lot higher than Arreaz since he's younger, much healthier, faster, better arm, and should hit for both average and power.  

[SoDakTwinsFan]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

how 'bout NO.. no consideration whatsoever.. Twins need a superstar..ALL Star caliber player  ...and this kid could be it. You dont trade this caliber of player....move along

I'm sure you thought that about Buxton and Sano too, right?

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, Hunter McCall said:

The pitching staff will take a step back in 2024 if they don't find someone who can win games at the top of the rotation. I think Varland should stay in the bullpen.

I don't think moving Lewis to first base is a good idea.

I don’t think moving Lewis is optimal but we need to fit hitters into the line-up. He has injury concerns and is physically big enough to play 1B. Don’t see Lee moving there & Julien has his hands full at any position ……would like him to elevate in one spot, 2B. Open to anything that gets maximum offensive threats into a game.

Lewis could play LF with Kirilloff at 1B.

I too like Varland in the Pen but honestly think organization committed last August when moving him to Pen, to give him an opportunity to be a starter in ‘24. I get that he’s an employee & needs to play for betterment of the Team but it may be sticky.

As we all know, 3 runs in 6 innings is a quality start & I think we can get that or better routinely from a few of the FA guys, Lugo - Wacha - Miley & even Varland……..that’s an ERA of 4.50 maybe down to 4.00. This is a guy that allows for wins v. any of the other Team’s starters, #1-#5. 

IMO…….Paddack - Lopez - Ryan are reasonable trio of playoff starters and if Ober improves at all he’s right there. Sure, George Kirby would be great!!! Seth Lugo is there waiting to be signed - veteran with low career innings - 3.53 ERA last year…..$13M.

I trade Polanco & his salary for whatever prospects. Sign Lugo for 2 years at $13M/yr. I trade a package (Polanco’s prospect gain plus Gordon for 2B & Rodriguez & Festa - gotta be enough!) to Milwaukee for Devin Williams to solidify Pen at a level of excellence for next 2 years - $6.25M/year salary. Trade Polanco’s $10.5M away and take on $19.25M in 2 pitchers……….very affordable - plausible!

[AlGoreRythm]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I see a clear path for Lee to be a starter in the next year. Farmer and Polo will likely be gone. Julien will likely be a DH heavy 2nd base platoon guy. Lee, Lewis and C4  slot in anywhere You want to put them in the IF. AK and hopefully Miranda round out the infield. It will arguably be the best in MLB for years to come. You think payroll is an issue now. How will you be paying all this guys when they get to arbitration and beyond.  There is plenty of other talent to package together to get another 1/2 ace like Pablo. 3 yrs from now, we may be WS champs and Miller will be knocking down the door to start at SS. C4 may very well have been traded for that ace.  In the mean time, don’t trade away your future allstars. 

I'm pretty sure C4 had a full no trade clause in his contract...

[Hunter McCall]

37 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

I never said that, but yes he was.... '21 A, A+, '22 AA, '23 AAA, He also made it to MLB in '23, but all or parts of 3 seasons in the minors. This will be Lee's third minor league season and he will also be starting it in AAA. If he not called up early, it will be because no one got injured, but I imagine by summer he is pushing hard for a roster spot. Lee is also 2 years younger and most likely will have played fewer games in the minors. 

 

The original post I was replying to that you replied to me on said that. However you want to look at it, Julien played two seasons in the minors and about a month total in the minors in 2023. However you prefer to classify that is up to you I suppose.

[wavedog]

Given the team's payroll limitations the pool of players Lee would be traded for should be very limited to a similar top pitching prospect with several years of team control remaining and a deal that would have to really blow us away.   So doubtful such a deal would present itself and I think it highly unlikely but would not 100% rule it out.   Many of our top players - Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Kiriiloff have a significant history of injuries.   Knock on wood - Lee has not yet plus he has value as a switch-hitter.   Even Arraez has issues with his knees but he also had played a couple of years and is Arb 3 eligible in 2024 with an estimated salary of $12M if we had kept him.  We still have several cheap years of Lee ahead of us.      

[saviking]

A small market teams strapped for cash needs all the Lee's they can find. His high ability, low salary for the foreseeable future is worth it's weight in gold. 

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, Hunter McCall said:

Saying Lee has more upside than Lewis is wild.

But... not wrong, or out of the realm of possibilities.  If anything, I'm more likely to view both of them in equal light (potential wise).

[Cory Engelhardt]

Hunter, let's say hypothetically the Twins were talking to the Royals regarding Brady Singer. He is starting to get a bit more expensive with arbitration, and I think (hat tip to Brandon Warne) Singer could be an option for a guy that 1) Has years of control, 2) Is young, and 3) probably has another gear to achieve at the mlb level, either by tweaking his pitch mix or working with Maki and company (TM) to clean up his fastball.

I don't think he would cost Brooks Lee, but I would very much be interested if someone like Singer could be a target too.

 

Thoughts? Do you hate this idea? Would the Royals even trade him in division? I don't see him becoming a playoff level starter where he is, but an arm like him COULD get there with the Twins. 

[Major League Ready]

I sure hope it does not cost Lee even though I am not as high on him as some.  My hope is that Seattle really likes Polanco or Kepler or both.  IDK what else we would have to add but it's not a Lee level prospect.

[TopGunn#22]

This is an interesting proposition.  I'm in the camp that says "Keep Lee."  I think he'll be very good.  But let me play devils advocate here for a moment.

This post rightfully points out that while Lee has been "solid" at every level of the minors he's been in he has not had a season where he just "popped."  A Miranda type St. Paul season as an example.  This is a valid point.

As always it depends what's coming back in the deal.  So let's look at a possible deal I just posted on BBTV.  The trade site just updated all their rankings and it's interesting.  There was one rating that blew me away:  The Marlins saw the value for their 28 y/o former Cy Young Ace Sandy Alcantara fall from 15.3 to a NEGATIVE 39.1.  I'm stunned.  It has to be due to his poor performance in 2023 after his Cy Young 2022.  His contract is also $56 million for the next 5 years with 2024 being $9.3 million.  Luzardo, Perez and Braxton Garrett each rocketed past him in the Marlins rotation pecking order and they still have Trevor Rogers, Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera under contract for peanuts.  Not to mention Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers.  

But the trade I proposed on BBTV is this:

Twins

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Bryce Miller	25	Majors	SP			6	56.5	30.5	25.9	20.7	25.9	31.1
Bryan Woo	23	Majors	SP			6	53.4	25.1	28.2	22.6	28.2	33.9

Total Value:

54.10

Mariners

00

NAME	AGE	LEVEL	P1	P2	AVAILABILITY	YEARS	AFV	SALARY	SURPLUS	LOW	MEDIAN	HIGH
Trevor Larnach	27	Majors	OF		Low	4	9.2	5.6	3.6	2.9	3.6	4.3
Caleb Thielbar	36	Majors	RP		Medium	1	6.6	3	3.6	2.8	3.6	4.3
Brooks Lee	22	Minors	SS			0	0	0	48.1	38.5	48.1	57.7

Total Value:

55.30

 

In this trade Lee is the centerpiece with a couple of extra pieces of value to a team like the Mariners.  The Mariners have enough depth in their rotation to give up BOTH of these young pitchers.  They would install Lee at 2B right away.  The other option is you include Polanco and keep Larnach and Thielbar.  But the Twins, in a deal like this ride with Julien at 2B and have a rotation that now boasts:  Lopez, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Joe Ryan, Ober, Paddack.  Varland is now the master of the 8th inning and the Twins have ZERO rotation worries for the next 5-years which is their window.  

This illustrates what the Twins could accomplish with a bold trade where they sell high on an asset but get 2 outstanding, young pitchers back.  the Values of Woo and Miller actually ticked up from the last time I was on BBTV.  

 

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Twins & Mariners: Baseball Trade Values

 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah but you are forgetting something.  Lee made it all the way to AAA in first full pro season it took Julien three years to get there.  Lee doesn't quite have Julien's patience but his bat to ball skills are excellent and Lee hits from both sides of the plate.  It is really hard to find good switch hitters which makes him even more valuable IMO.  I still see All Star upside and a versatile player who can play all three spots if needed.  That is not the right player to trade IMO he is a unicorn.

Lee really does not hit well enough from the right side for his switch hitting to matter much.  The guy who can hit from both sides is Severino but he gets no love.  Lee had a wRC+ of 100 at aa and 78 at AAA.  Severino was 139 at AA and 100 at AAA.  Of course, there is no comparison defensively.  Just saying Lee's bat has not screamed elite.  I also wonder if Severino is not a better trade chip than we think.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you kidding?  We would be in much better shape had they not invested so heavily in a team that was not even close to being a real contender.

CES would be the starting 1B.  He started off a little slow but he was already a beast the last 6 weeks of the season.  He could be an elite hitter.  Kirilloff would play both OF and 1B.  CES would play 1B/DH and could also cover 3B when Lewis is out, has a day-off or covers SS when Correa is out.  CES would look great on this roster.  Steer takes Farmer's spot or even Polanco's spot.  He is a much better hitter than Farmer and he can play in the OF,  Farmer's 6.6M or Polanco's $10.5M goes toward a RP or part of the investment in a SP.  The two of them would fit here exceptionally well right now.

Agree to disagree here. Miranda (when healthy) is better than CES, he just is. And if you think CES's best defensive home isn't dh, I don't know what to tell you. Thinking he could play 3b at all is similar to me thinking I can win the powerball, even when not buying a ticket.

Steer, he is a mlb caliber player. He isn't starting over Julien/Lewis/Correa/Lee or a healthy Miranda. 

[mnfireman]

Alcantara's value has fallen because he had TJ surgery and will miss 2024....

[Cris E]

I keep Lee because of his high floor, not his high ceiling. But I think his thicker body projects better at 3B and he'll need to hit a lot more to have top value there, so I would totally move him for the right big deal.  Think Lee for Arozarena AND Glasnow. It solves Tampa's SS problem and two of our problems with the real risk being Glasnow's ability to throw more than 120 innings and the lesser risk of our embaressment if Lee becomes awesome or Correa breaks down and Castro or Lewis has to take over at SS long term.

[Major League Ready]

17 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Agree to disagree here. Miranda (when healthy) is better than CES, he just is. And if you think CES's best defensive home isn't dh, I don't know what to tell you. Thinking he could play 3b at all is similar to me thinking I can win the powerball, even when not buying a ticket.

Steer, he is a mlb caliber player. He isn't starting over Julien/Lewis/Correa/Lee or a healthy Miranda. 

Steer does not have to start to be valuable.  He is definitely better than Farmer for $6M less and he is more versatile than Polanco with a similar bat and he has 5 more years of control.  Regardless, he would be great trade bait right so there is no scenario where we would not have been much better off passing on Mahle.

CES crushed Milb pitching and had a 112 wRC+ to begin his career.  He struggled for a month or so but posted a wRC+ of 155 for his last 100 ABs.   I have heard him discussed on some of the national radio shows and he is viewd as great potential to be an elite bat.  Nobody is talking about Miranda and even if they were, dismissing the value of having CES as an asset make absolutely no sense.  Steer and CES or Polanco and CES would get us one of Seattle's young pitchers so that is the cost of the Mahle trade at this moment.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Steer does not have to start to be valuable.  He is definitely better than Farmer for $6M less and he is more versatile than Polanco with a similar bat and he has 5 more years of control.  Regardless, he would be great trade bait right so there is no scenario where we would not have been much better off passing on Mahle.

CES crushed Milb pitching and had a 112 wRC+ to begin his career.  He struggled for a month or so but posted a wRC+ of 155 for his last 100 ABs.   I have heard him discussed on some of the national radio shows and he is viewd as great potential to be an elite bat.  Nobody is talking about Miranda and even if they were, dismissing the value of having CES as an asset make absolutely no sense.  Steer and CES or Polanco and CES would get us one of Seattle's young pitchers so that is the cost of the Mahle trade at this moment.

Imagine saying/thinking that Steer has a similar bat to Polanco. Ugh

 

And no, in no reality does Polanco and CES or Steer and CES get you ANYWHERE in the ballpark of one of Seattle's young pitchers. Sorry

[DJL44]

59 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Lee really does not hit well enough from the right side for his switch hitting to matter much. 

I'd give him 100 plate appearances before I believe that is true.