"Very strong chance" Twins trade Jorge Polanco This Winter

[Cody Christie]

MLB Network's Jon Morosi thinks there is a "very strong chance" the Twins will trade Jorge Polanco this winter (Video clip below). He said there is industry speculation that Polanco is very much on the market and that he will be traded before next season. Eduoard Julien and Royce Lewis have emerged as infield options for the Twins and that makes Polanco more expendable. 

What is Polanco's value with two years of control at team-friendly prices? Who is more likely to be traded Kepler or Polanco?

 

[Doctor Gast]

I'm willing to move Polanco if we have someone who can come close to replace him. We don't. The shift is gone so we can no longer  hide a bat w/o any range there. Julien can not replace Polanco.

#2 Polanco & Kepler together won't even come close to get a SP that comes close to Gray's level.

#3 Hard to find a team that'd be interested in Polanco. Teams that are rebuilding & want to unload their quality SP salary are looking for prospects or rookieish players not a year or 2 for a veteran. All other teams are looking for high end SPing not to unload. Only team that isn't is MIA & they have their 2B man. 

#4 Because of this year Paparesta's supervision Polanco should finally be 100%. We won't come close to  get what a 100%  Polanco is worth.

[tony&rodney]

The best scenario is that the Twins keep Polanco and his production reaches 2019 or 2021 levels. Alas, Jorge has been down in even years. My personal preference may be to keep Polanco ....

Maybe he can be a part of a deal to return a pitcher from Seattle. Perhaps the Mariners will not consider trading either Kirby or Gilbert, yet there may be a possibility to add a guy like Bryce Miller. Miller could be a good #3 or strong #4 pitcher.

The Twins need to evaluate the future worth of their players and take some positions on the types of players needed to strengthen the roster. Some are already in the system but others might be available from other teams.

[Linus]

I would trade Julien before Polo. He has enough value to be a part of a package that could return a good starter. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I would trade Julien before

Lee? Supposedly Lee has more value and might return a better pitcher. 

Or do you believe that Lee is better than Julien?

[Linus]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Lee? Supposedly Lee has more value and might return a better pitcher. 

Or do you believe that Lee is better than Julien?

I believe Lee will be better than Julien. Switch hitter that should play plus defense. I like Julien but he is a platoon player that may end up a DH. 

[Jocko87]

51 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Lee? Supposedly Lee has more value and might return a better pitcher. 

Or do you believe that Lee is better than Julien?

Lee is in a different stratosphere of value than Polo or even Julien. It's not close, you can't make it a thing.

[SteveLV]

Why can't Lee play 2B?

I like Polanco, but he is a logical piece to move.  With so many teams starved for offense, there should be plenty of interest in his services.  Packaged with Larnach (who does not appear to have a home) might fetch some pitching or, possibly, a RH outfield bat.

[Blyleven2011]

I'll just sit back and wait for the off season to commence ...

Will I be happy if they trade the longest tenured Twins in Polanco  , NO ...

But it could happen ,  the FO is in control  and I am not  ...

I just hope the FO gets it right ...

[Brandon]

The International Class of 2009 is up to 426 career HRs.  It will be hard for them to reach 500 and beyond if Polanco is traded.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am curious as to why everyone thinks the Twins will move Polanco.

He is an upper tier hitter for his position, he can play multiple positions, he is relatively cheap, good clubhouse guy and tenured Twin...

On a team that has issues on offense, you trade one of your better offensive players?  I don't think there is another Lopez-type pitcher out there to be had...

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am curious as to why everyone thinks the Twins will move Polanco.

He is an upper tier hitter for his position, he can play multiple positions, he is relatively cheap, good clubhouse guy and tenured Twin...

On a team that has issues on offense, you trade one of your better offensive players?  I don't think there is another Lopez-type pitcher out there to be had...

They probably will not but right now a lot are trade happy, thinking the unknown is better than the known.

Odd with Polanco and Kepler being the longest term Twins as it seems like just a short time a go they were newbies.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 11/11/2023 at 3:16 PM, Doctor Gast said:

I'm willing to move Polanco if we have someone who can come close to replace him. We don't. The shift is gone so we can no longer  hide a bat w/o any range there. Julien can not replace Polanco.

#2 Polanco & Kepler together won't even come close to get a SP that comes close to Gray's level.

#3 Hard to find a team that'd be interested in Polanco. Teams that are rebuilding & want to unload their quality SP salary are looking for prospects or rookieish players not a year or 2 for a veteran. All other teams are looking for high end SPing not to unload. Only team that isn't is MIA & they have their 2B man. 

#4 Because of this year Paparesta's supervision Polanco should finally be 100%. We won't come close to  get what a 100%  Polanco is worth.

Ahem

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am curious as to why everyone thinks the Twins will move Polanco.

He is an upper tier hitter for his position, he can play multiple positions, he is relatively cheap, good clubhouse guy and tenured Twin...

On a team that has issues on offense, you trade one of your better offensive players?  I don't think there is another Lopez-type pitcher out there to be had...

That’s why you trade him. He’s a great hitter and cheap, and you already have his replacement with 100 games of experience. There’s no better time than now

[dxpavelka]

26 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

That’s why you trade him. He’s a great hitter and cheap, and you already have his replacement with 100 games of experience. There’s no better time than now

jose miranda

[DocBauer]

Switch hitter, though better from the left side, who is a quality bat to ball hitter for AVG, contact, solid OB%, and 30 double 20HR power. 

Sound like Polanco? It is. But it would also describe Brooks Lee. And that's why Polanco...who remains controllable for 2 more years...might be traded.

I don't bieve the Twins WANT to trade Polanco. But he's got good value. And while Lee might not be quite ready yet, he's pretty close. And in the meantime, Julien and Farmer could provide a quality quasi platoon at 2B, along with Castro, and Farmer can also be a valuable utility INF, along with Castro. 

Moving Polanco also frees up $10M to use at 1B, or a RH OF, or whatever SP is eventually signed or traded for. 

Not saying it's going to happen, but he's a pretty obvious candidate to be in demand, possibly moved, doesn't really weaken the lineup with his absence considering the alternative options, and may help strengthen another area of the club.

I don't see any way Kepler gets moved without hurting the club. I'm banking on 4 months of the "new and improved" Kepler isn't a SSS or mirage. But if he's moved, who takes his spot? Acquiring a replacement via FA or trade replaces him, it doesn't ADD to the team. And I don't see a ready made replacement in the system unless Larnach takes a big step forward, as Rodriguez, Rosario, and others are too far away yet.

 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Ahem

 

The same argument that they compared Polanco & Arraez. I'm not talking about bat, I'm talking about 2B & that's about does he have the range or not. I don't care about the other metrics they come up with. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

That’s why you trade him. He’s a great hitter and cheap, and you already have his replacement with 100 games of experience. There’s no better time than now

I would understand this more if the Twins were rebuilding, but they are competing for a WS.  There is a short window to accomplish this with the current group.

A rebuilding team trades Polanco for prospects.  The Twins should only trade Polanco if they fill a clear cut need (see Arraez).  I don't know what currently looks like as positionally the Twins are probably only heavily shopping for SP (Polanco alone will not do this), a 4th OF (MAT type) and 1B depth (should be Justin Turner).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The same argument that they compared Polanco & Arraez. I'm not talking about bat, I'm talking about 2B & that's about does he have the range or not. I don't care about the other metrics they come up with. 

If all you care about is your eye test, and there’s no room for debate, then why post at all? Keep shouting into the void

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I would understand this more if the Twins were rebuilding, but they are competing for a WS.  There is a short window to accomplish this with the current group.

A rebuilding team trades Polanco for prospects.  The Twins should only trade Polanco if they fill a clear cut need (see Arraez).  I don't know what currently looks like as positionally the Twins are probably only heavily shopping for SP (Polanco alone will not do this), a 4th OF (MAT type) and 1B depth (should be Justin Turner).

Agreed. The Arraez for Lopez trade almost never happens, but that’s what the Twins would likely want to duplicate

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed. The Arraez for Lopez trade almost never happens, but that’s what the Twins would likely want to duplicate

And likely the Marlins. If nothing else, mutually beneficial trades build open and willing relationships.

Julien, Lewis and Polanco are all plus offensive players, but one will be riding pine every game. You don't trade Polanco because he's useless, you trade him because you can swap out production that's only sitting on the bench for equity that can help on the field somewhere else more regularly.

[stringer bell]

11 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

And likely the Marlins. If nothing else, mutually beneficial trades build open and willing relationships.

Julien, Lewis and Polanco are all plus offensive players, but one will be riding pine every game. You don't trade Polanco because he's useless, you trade him because you can swap out production that's only sitting on the bench for equity that can help on the field somewhere else more regularly.

If Buxton is not the DH, there is room for all three. I believe Polanco's productions can be matched by Julien and a platoon partner. The $10M+ is a bargain for a club looking for more punch at second base, but it would give the Twins valuable spending room.

Two other factors--Polanco (IMHO) is only really viable as a second baseman. I thought he was dreadful at third base and the club has really moved him completely away from shortstop. Secondly, I think it is possible Polanco will decline quickly and soon. Players age differently, but I feel like he has slowed noticeably, perhaps due to injury.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am curious as to why everyone thinks the Twins will move Polanco.

He is an upper tier hitter for his position, he can play multiple positions, he is relatively cheap, good clubhouse guy and tenured Twin...

On a team that has issues on offense, you trade one of your better offensive players?  I don't think there is another Lopez-type pitcher out there to be had...

No offense here…………but a Reality check on Polanco:

.235 BA in ‘22 and played 108 games

.256 BA in ‘23 and played 80 games

.270 career hitter

Not available and hitting skills declining & making $10.5M

Farmer makes, or will, $7.25M and played 145 games and 120 games last 2 years & hit .256 & .255………..missed time this year due to pitch to the face. Career .255 BA - no decline & available! Better defensive skills at all 3 positions than Polanco!

Julien needs to play 2B v. RH pitching……..Lee is coming by the All-Star break to play somewhere. No reason not to trade Polanco if we can couple him with Miranda - Larnach - Moran - Sands - etc.to get back some decent value.

[JD-TWINS]

10 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

If Buxton is not the DH, there is room for all three. I believe Polanco's productions can be matched by Julien and a platoon partner. The $10M+ is a bargain for a club looking for more punch at second base, but it would give the Twins valuable spending room.

Two other factors--Polanco (IMHO) is only really viable as a second baseman. I thought he was dreadful at third base and the club has really moved him completely away from shortstop. Secondly, I think it is possible Polanco will decline quickly and soon. Players age differently, but I feel like he has slowed noticeably, perhaps due to injury.

has already declined! - you’re right on with his defensive limitations on left side of infield!

Julien v. RH pitching at 2B with Farmer at $7.25M to supplement time there - Farmer another 20 games at SS & 30 games at 3B. Late inning D as well as pinch hitter.

[FlyingFinn]

22 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

If Buxton is not the DH, there is room for all three. I believe Polanco's productions can be matched by Julien and a platoon partner. The $10M+ is a bargain for a club looking for more punch at second base, but it would give the Twins valuable spending room.

Two other factors--Polanco (IMHO) is only really viable as a second baseman. I thought he was dreadful at third base and the club has really moved him completely away from shortstop. Secondly, I think it is possible Polanco will decline quickly and soon. Players age differently, but I feel like he has slowed noticeably, perhaps due to injury.

Lewis in Cf would do it as well but I agree with you, Polanco was dreadful at 3B.

I think Polanco has been a great player for the Twins. You tell me he can play 140 games in 2024 and I'm not trading him. I said he had too many miles on his body at the end of 2022 and would continue to have injuries and most people thought I was nuts. He played................. 80 games in 2023. My guess is his injuries will continue. This combined with Julien's play and Lee coming makes this time to trade Polanco to a team that thinks he will play 140 games, and get a good return for him.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

That’s why you trade him. He’s a great hitter and cheap, and you already have his replacement with 100 games of experience. There’s no better time than now

You don't trade him because he's a great clutch hitter & cheap, that's why you keep him. You trade him because you can get good trade value. Right now his trade value is about as low as it's ever been.

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

If all you care about is your eye test, and there’s no room for debate, then why post at all? Keep shouting into the void

Stats can be spun, can be bias & don't tell the whole story. Your eyes don't lie. That's where the debate should be. You are probably one who shouts stats,stats, stats but yell bloody murder when a pitcher is lifted the 3rd time around the order. Stats are very clear that's what should be done. So don't tell me I'm shouting into the void.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

No offense here…………but a Reality check on Polanco:

.235 BA in ‘22 and played 108 games

.256 BA in ‘23 and played 80 games

.270 career hitter

Not available and hitting skills declining & making $10.5M

Farmer makes, or will, $7.25M and played 145 games and 120 games last 2 years & hit .256 & .255………..missed time this year due to pitch to the face. Career .255 BA - no decline & available! Better defensive skills at all 3 positions than Polanco!

Julien needs to play 2B v. RH pitching……..Lee is coming by the All-Star break to play somewhere. No reason not to trade Polanco if we can couple him with Miranda - Larnach - Moran - Sands - etc.to get back some decent value.

Apologies, but using BA as the argument against Polanco is fairly weak:

2022 OPS+ 115  3.0 WAR
2023 OPS+ 115  2.0 WAR

He will be 30 in 2024.  He plays positions the the Twins need depth at (2B and 3B). Health is a concern, but even at 80-100 games he is still a bargain at $10m.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

You don't trade him because he's a great clutch hitter & cheap, that's why you keep him. You trade him because you can get good trade value. Right now his trade value is about as low as it's ever been.

You keep him for the same reason you trade him. 
 

Give value to get value.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Stats can be spun, can be bias & don't tell the whole story. Your eyes don't lie. That's where the debate should be. You are probably one who shouts stats,stats, stats but yell bloody murder when a pitcher is lifted the 3rd time around the order. Stats are very clear that's what should be done. So don't tell me I'm shouting into the void.

Arguing that stats that compare the same thing for every player in baseball with the same criteria are biased while the human eye that can't possibly see every player in baseball, and are attached to a fan of a certain team are unbiased is a real bold claim. Our eyes do lie. All the time. Humans are nothing if not biased. Defensive stats have a long way to go still, but our eyes absolutely lie. And, if you want to get into the tall weeds on things, some of the defensive stats are based on human eyes. Eyes that watch far more games of far more teams than the typical Twins fan so the eye test is actually baked into some of those stats already. The eye test is almost never as effective as the stats, especially with the high speed cameras that are now used to produce some of the stats. Those cameras are so much better than the eye test it's not even worth discussing.