These Free Agents Could Help the Twins Change Their Offensive Identity

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins had a good offense in 2023, but one with some frustrating tendencies that ultimately contributed to the team's postseason downfall.

If Minnesota wants to move away from its extreme swing-and-miss profile, these are a few offseason pickups who could help meaningfully move the needle.

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe you heard: The 2023 Minnesota Twins offense set the all-time record for most strikeouts in a season. Their hitters turned and walked back to the dugout an astonishing 1,654 times, taking the "boom or bust" model to new heights by also tying for the AL lead in home runs. 

It's a style that often worked for them, as the Twins captured a division title and advanced to the second round of the playoffs. But the lineup's unprecedented susceptibility to strikeouts made them highly vulnerable to droughts in run-scoring.

Our worst fears came to fruition in the ALDS. The Twins brought home a 1-1 series and then spiraled into a sea of strikeouts at home, piling up 28 Ks while scoring three runs over 18 innings in Games 3 and 4. Like that, the ride was over.

To some extent, the Twins are strikeout-prone by design, and that's fine. "We're trying to find a way to build the best offense," Derek Falvey said after the season. "That will come with some version of strikeouts, but hopefully some version of getting on base and hitting for power." 

With high-K, high-power player types like Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien and Ryan Jeffers serving as key parts of their lineup, "some version of strikeouts" is going to be a reality. Still, the Twins will benefit from finding ways to dial back the whiffs elsewhere. 

Of the top 12 teams in strikeouts this year, only two (the Twins and Phillies) made the playoffs. Even if the K will inherently be part of Minnesota's offensive DNA going forward, the front office would be wise to counterbalance this trait rather than leaning into it as they did with the Joey Gallo signing.

Swapping out Gallo's presence for one of the following free agent targets, on its own, would make a big impact on the team's overall proneness to strikeouts, helping shift them away from an identity that was overwhelming defined by the whiff in 2023.

Whit Merrifield, LF/2B

Merrifield did strike out 100 times this year, but don't let the triple digits fool you – he compiled strikeouts only because he played so much. As usual, he was very durable and useful to his team, accumulating 592 plate appearances. Merrifield's 17.1 K% was well below the league average, and would have been lowest of any Twins hitter who played 50+ games. He has appeal as a righty bat capable of mixing in at multiple spots.

Jung-hoo Lee, CF

The KBO star is setting his sights on Major League Baseball after a prestigious career in Korea. Contact hitting his Lee's calling card – in 2022 his strikeout rate (5.1%) was the lowest in the league as he batted .349 with a .996 OPS and won MVP. His 2023 season was more of same, albeit cut short by an ankle injury. There's an added element of uncertainty in translating Lee's game from another league to the majors, but it seems fair to say that putting the bat on the ball will be a strength.

Carlos Santana, 1B/DH

Santana is a guy who can hit for power without striking out a ton, which is a combination the Twins would welcome. The veteran switch hitter has long been renowned for his discipline, with a 14.8% career walk rate alongside a 16.8% K-rate. His age (38 next April) means he'll likely be available on a one-year deal, but also increases the concern of steepening decline.

Justin Turner, 1B/3B

Turner's appeal is very similar to Santana's: late-30s veteran who can play first base and hit some home runs without a corresponding avalanche of strikeouts. In fact, Turner's offensive totals with Boston this year (23 homers, 31 doubles, 96 RBIs) were very similar to Santana's (23 homers, 33 doubles, 86 RBIs) and his 17.5% K rate was also nearly identical to Santana's. Turner is a year older but has a more consistently strong offensive track record. Lou Hennessy wrote this morning about Turner's potential for a Nelson Cruz-like impact.

Michael Brantley, LF

One of the best bat-to-ball hitters in the game. Since 2017, Brantley has the fourth-lowest K% (10.8%) among MLB players with 2,000+ PAs. He also has a .305/.364..461 slash line during that span. Brantley is is 36 and has a long history of injuries; he's also not a great fit for the Twins' needs as a LH-hitting corner outfielder. But as a free agent target specifically designed to uproot the team's strikeout-centric culture, few would be better suited.

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[tony&rodney]

I like Brantley quite a bit. He made $12M last season. What can the Twins offer? $7M?

[Parfigliano]

I so wanted them to sign Turner when he left the Mutts for LA.  Strangely I still do.  Unfortunately the reasonable contract offer TC would make will be dwarfed by the crazy offer coming his way from some other team.

[Karbo]

I don't see any of these getting signed by the Twins. With the cut in payroll coming (according to the Athletic), I can only see them signing a backup CF and a 4-5 type starter. I would put Martin in CF to backup Buxton, unless they don't think Buck can play the field anymore .

[CRF]

I don't think any of these guys are a particularly good FA to go after.

[Brett]

Turner would be fun, but as others have stated, do the Twins actually have the financial flexibility to sign any significant free agent?

We all would love to sign a “backup” CF, a relief pitcher and one of these hitters. But we would also love it if Tony O’s Cuban sandwiches didn’t cost $35 next year. Maybe that’s just me…

[chpettit19]

Lee is an interesting option and I'm intrigued to see what his contract ends up being. I'd be really happy with the Twins going after him. The Athletic has him pegged at 4 years, 56 million. Likely too expensive without other payroll cuts being made, and at that point you're just maintaining the talent level instead of improving it. I love Brantley, but again, guessing he's priced out of their range now. If they aren't getting to 140 mil in payroll I don't think any worthwhile FA is an option this year.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I think Turner should be a top priority for the Twins.  He hits all of the checkboxes the Twins need:
- Professional, productive RH hitter
- Plays positions lacking depth for the Twins (Kiriloff and Lewis insurance)
- Veteran guy that creates positive waves wherever he plays

Give him a 1yr/$11m with a team option that guarantees with attainable thresholds.

[Brandon27]

With what money???

[MABB1959]

Why only "old" guys?

[Doctor Gast]

I think the most cost effective & more productive way to change our SO identity is to change our old '19 philosophy of hitting a "moon-shot" with every pitch. Yes this hitter can get lucky &hit a HR w/ nobody on base when the pitcher is not focused & makes a mistake & when it's not important. But when it's a clutch situation, facing a good pitcher that's focused, this hitter most often SO if not then pop-up or FO. That's why preLewis era our hitting w/ RISP was so low especially with the bases loaded.

Normally it's hard to blame anyone because normally everyone is tight lipped. But Falvey gloated after our positive PS. Giving credit to his hitting philosophy. We made it to the PS & advanced not because of this philosophy but inspite of it. I believe we could have advanced further w/o it. So FO wake up & stop drinking your Kool-Aid..

[Tibs]

Outside the obvious concerns of all of these guys being 35+ with the exception of Lee, where would they play exactly?

 

 

[lake_guy]

Please no to any hitters from the Korean or Japan leagues.  Yes there are hitters who have successfully made the jump but we're 0-2 and it wasn't even close.  

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Brandon27 said:

With what money???

I don't think anyone here has actually looked at the payroll situation. Even if it's going to be lower, none of these guys would be an issue. Signing four 10M free agents isn't happening, but they can still afford multiple sizable contracts.

That said, Turner is the only one here I'd have interest in.

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Why only "old" guys?

The ,'young' guys ain't free agents yet.

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I've always liked Merrifield and he killed the Twins while in KC, but he is not a good fit here since he plays positions that we have a log jam at.

In conjunction with a Polanco trade, Merrifield would fit very well IMHO. He hasn’t been as good the last couple of years, but he makes contact and is a reliable fielder at second and in the OF. 
 

Austin Martin might offer similar skills and versatility at a fraction of the price, but he is unproven. 

[Greglw3]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I like Brantley quite a bit. He made $12M last season. What can the Twins offer? $7M?

I’m with you. Brantley would be just what the doctor ordered for the Twins.

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I like Brantley quite a bit. He made $12M last season. What can the Twins offer? $7M?

[RpR]

Merrifield would be hole in the defense at 2nd or in the Out Field.

He still  has a fairly good bat and still can steal bases but his fielding lacking is not an improvement in any way.

[terrydactyls]

17 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

In conjunction with a Polanco trade, Merrifield would fit very well IMHO. He hasn’t been as good the last couple of years, but he makes contact and is a reliable fielder at second and in the OF. 
 

Austin Martin might offer similar skills and versatility at a fraction of the price, but he is unproven. 

And Martin will always remain "unproven" unless he gets a chance to play.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

And Martin will always remain "unproven" unless he gets a chance to play.

The chances will come, I expect, for any player on the 40-man roster. Last year the Twins used all their position players and they dug deep into their system in 2022. 

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Lee is an interesting option and I'm intrigued to see what his contract ends up being. I'd be really happy with the Twins going after him. The Athletic has him pegged at 4 years, 56 million. Likely too expensive without other payroll cuts being made, and at that point you're just maintaining the talent level instead of improving it. I love Brantley, but again, guessing he's priced out of their range now. If they aren't getting to 140 mil in payroll I don't think any worthwhile FA is an option this year.

After reading this several times, I still can't figure out what you meant to say about "just maintaining the talent level instead of improving it." At first, I thought you meant that signing Lee wouldn't improve the Twins and I was going to ask if adding Lee in place of Gallo would only maintain the current talent level?  But several readings later I wondered if your comment was in reference to the budget cutting.  If it's the latter, then I agree.  If it's the former, I would say that Lee might be a significant upgrade over Gallo.

[RpR]

9 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

And Martin will always remain "unproven" unless he gets a chance to play.

IF they are good enough to play in the Majors the Spring Training should show that; so far such has not shown in the Minors regular season.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, terrydactyls said:

After reading this several times, I still can't figure out what you meant to say about "just maintaining the talent level instead of improving it." At first, I thought you meant that signing Lee wouldn't improve the Twins and I was going to ask if adding Lee in place of Gallo would only maintain the current talent level?  But several readings later I wondered if your comment was in reference to the budget cutting.  If it's the latter, then I agree.  If it's the former, I would say that Lee might be a significant upgrade over Gallo.

I wasn't clear in my rantings?! Impossible! 🤪

Definitely was in regards to the payroll cut. If you have to remove Kepler to add Lee I don't think that's a significant upgrade in the overall talent of the team, but I would do it to get the younger player in there who I think will be better for longer. He may even be significantly better this year than Kepler, but the overall talent of the team won't go up if you're not replacing the CFer and are seeing a downgrade there.

I would bet a lot that Lee is a significant upgrade on Gallo, but when it comes to the current roster and improving it I don't like the idea of switching out Kepler or Polanco (the 2 most likely guys due to their contracts) for someone else as you're taking from the top of the Twins talent pool instead of the bottom. I want to add to the top while replacing guys at the bottom, not guys at the top, or even the middle (maybe that's where Polanco and Kepler are now?). CF is a hole right now. If you bring in Lee to play CF while keeping Kepler I think that's an actual talent upgrade (I'm counting on 0 games in CF from Buxton).

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think anyone here has actually looked at the payroll situation. Even if it's going to be lower, none of these guys would be an issue. Signing four 10M free agents isn't happening, but they can still afford multiple sizable contracts.

That said, Turner is the only one here I'd have interest in.

Is the payroll not at roughly 120 mil right now? Are the reports not that the Twins are looking at a 125-140 payroll? What's the definition of "sizable contracts" that they can fit multiple of with between 5 and 20 mil to spend?

[DocBauer]

Lee would be of great interest. Third time's the charm, right? But if the Twins had $14M to spend, they would look to a rotation arm first, IMO, though it will probably come via trade. And would they then want to add Lee at $14M as a second major addition while they still have Buxton, (in at least a hopeful part time role), and Martin SEEMINGLY ready? Or would they want to go with a less expensive 1yr option?

Merrifield hasn't been good in 2yrs, IMO. Not sure I'm expecting a turn around in 2024.

Absolutely love the idea of Turner or Santana and 1yr deal for something relatively inexpensive.  ($12M ???) Both provide a veteran presence and help at 1B with Kirilloff. Turner could probably handle 3B here and there. But roster construction wise, what's more important, a 1B/DH RH bat or a corner OF? Not sure there's room for both.

A healthy Brantley is a nice ballplayer. And he's probably got some life left. At least one good season I'd wager. But where does he play? We don't want or necessarily need a full time DH unless he's pretty special, and we don't need another LH corner OF since we already have two there. 

Just not sure I see any fits here. Turner or Santana on the cheap for 1yr. MAYBE Merrifield on a 1yr for depth and options if Polanco was moved. That's about it.

[PatPfund]

Lee looks interesting as someone playing a position of need (we don't need a backup CF, we need a starter and I'm not even believing the real backup is Buxton until he can actually play a full game there without immediately going on the IL again). But I expect the Twins to do very little before the end of the year, and then focus resources on pitching (unless they create a new need through trading bat(s) for arm(s)). There are in-house/inexpensive options on the hitting side if resources are slender.

[rv78]

I'm not in favor of bringing in any old guys to block the young players from getting their chance. They did that last year bringing in Gallo instead of just going with Wallner right out of the gate. If Buxton can't be counted on, which he can't, then you've got to look for a long-term solution, not a 1 year fix. Yes Jung-hoo Lee would be a possible answer but with no major league experience is he really any better of a choice than giving Martin a shot? And then at what cost? On the flip side to that thought, I guess if you can throw $11M away on a Joey Gallo then a few million more than that, if that is what it takes, to Jung-hoo might be worth the risk. 

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Is the payroll not at roughly 120 mil right now? Are the reports not that the Twins are looking at a 125-140 payroll? What's the definition of "sizable contracts" that they can fit multiple of with between 5 and 20 mil to spend?

If you’re pushing to put the band back together with Kepler, Polanco and Farmer, you have roster space for about one free agent. So 15-20M per year is a pretty sizable contract. 

Add 7-10M to that for any of those you’re willing to set free. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If you’re pushing to put the band back together with Kepler, Polanco and Farmer, you have roster space for about one free agent. So 15-20M per year is a pretty sizable contract. 

Add 7-10M to that for any of those you’re willing to set free. 

You said you didn't think people had looked at the payroll situation and there was space for multiple sizeable contracts. No need for us to rehash the "replacing Kepler and/or Polanco with similar players doesn't improve the team" debate here. Was just curious if you were seeing a different payroll situation that allowed for multiple contracts with the current team.

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You said you didn't think people had looked at the payroll situation and there was space for multiple sizeable contracts. No need for us to rehash the "replacing Kepler and/or Polanco with similar players doesn't improve the team" debate here. Was just curious if you were seeing a different payroll situation that allowed for multiple contracts with the current team.

No need to rehash? Because you won't try to reconcile your desire to cling to the ghosts of the fading vets AND wanting multiple big ticket free agents? You can't have both and it's not about payroll, there just isn't roster space. Larnach gets bumped, but there's no other reasonable offensive players to shuffle off other than the three guys at the end of their productive careers. You can sign ONE big ticket free agent, or let the past go and sign multiple. Your prerogative, but whichever path you go, the payroll will accommodate within reason.