Stealing the Show: Why Twins Should Prioritize Stolen Bases in 2024

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Twins finished 24th overall in the MLB with 86 stolen bases during the 2023 regular season. Though this is an improvement from when they finished last in the MLB with only 38 stolen bases in 2022, their 2023 numbers lagged behind most teams. The Twins are suited to be an effective base-stealing team, and they should increase their stolen base attempts in 2024.

Image courtesy of David Kohl - USA TODAY Sports

A good person is someone who attempts to live a sound moral life in an entirely corrupt world. That means avoiding the temptation of morally corrupt actions like fraud, violence, lying, and theft and instead doing what is right in the name of actively attempting to be a good person. 

Though this is a valuable and essential standard of life to pursue, one of these morally corrupt acts has an entirely different meaning when discussing baseball: theft. Also known as "stealing" in the baseball lexicon, attempting to swipe a base is a perfectly reasonable and even encouraged act to engage and dabble with. 

Unfortunately, the Twins have been one of the more steal-averse teams in baseball since Rocco Baldelli took over as manager in 2019. To add context, here is where the Twins have ranked in stolen bases as a team each season since 2019:

• 2019 - 28 (30th in MLB)
• 2020 - 14 (30th in MLB)
• 2021 - 54 (25th in MLB)
• 2022 - 38 (30th in MLB)
• 2023 - 86 (24th in MLB)

Three out of the last five seasons, the Twins have finished in last place in stolen bases in Major League Baseball. The highest the Twins have finished was in 24th place, which is still in the bottom half of the league. 

Twins utility player Willi Castro led the team with 33 stolen bases (SB), and if it weren't for Castro the Twins would have had 53 stolen bases during the 2023 season, which would have been last in Major League Baseball. 

Of course, this isn't an appropriate way to view the situation because Castro played for the Twins and had 33 steals, the butterfly effect, etc. Nonetheless, Castro, the manufacturer of 38% of the Twins stolen bases, puts their unwillingness to attempt to steal them into a fascinating light. 

Castro was incredibly efficient as a base stealer, stealing 33 bases on 38 attempts (87%), and finished 10th in Major League Baseball in total steals. What is interesting about Castro being a highly efficient base stealer is that he possesses an above-average but non-elite 82nd-percentile sprint speed. An 82nd-percentile sprint speed means Castro can cover 28.6 feet/second, but to be considered a player with an elite sprint speed, one needs to be able to cover 30 feet/second. 

So, Castro could efficiently steal a high volume of bases while being a non-elite base runner sprint speed-wise. Interestingly enough, this is the case with a handful of the nine players who stole more bases than Castro:

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves) - 73 SB, 67th-percentile sprint speed
2. Esteury Ruiz (Athletics) - 67 SB, 97th-percentile sprint speed
3. Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) - 54 SB, 99th-percentile sprint speed
4. Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) - 49 SB, 100th-percentile sprint speed
5. CJ Abrams (Nationals) - 47 SB, 82nd-percentile sprint speed
6. Nico Hoerner (Cubs) - 43 SB, 80th-percentile sprint speed
7. Ha-Seong Kim (Padres) - 38 SB, 79th-percentile sprint speed
8. Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) - 37 SB, 96th-percentile sprint speed
9. Elly De La Cruz (Reds) - 35 SB, 100th-percentile sprint speed
10. Willi Castro (Twins) - 33 SB, 82nd-percentile sprint speed

Now, while this list is populated with 97th-to-100th-percentile sprint speed base-stealers in Carroll, Witt Jr., Rodriguez, and De La Cruz, there are more players with non-elite sprint speeds in Acuña Jr. (the league leader in steals), Abrams, Hoerner, Kim, and Castro. 

Though these respective players all have differentiating sprint speeds, the one thing they have in common regarding stolen bases is a high number of attempts. 

Here is how many stolen bases (SB), caught stealing (CS), and overall successful stolen base percentage (rounded) the previously listed players had during the 2023 regular season:

1. Acuña Jr. - (73 SB, 14 CS, 84% sucess rate)
2. Ruiz - (67 SB, 13 CS, 84% success rate)
3. Carroll - (54 SB, 5 CS, 92% success rate)
4. Witt Jr. - (49 SB, 15 CS, 77% sucess rate)
5. Abrams - (47 SB, 4 CS, 92% success rate)
6. Hoerner - (43 SB, 7 CS, 86% success rate)
7. Kim - (38 SB, 9 CS, 81% success rate)
8. Rodriguez - (37 SB, 10 CS, 79% success rate)
9. De La Cruz - (35 SB, 8 CS, 81% success rate)
10. Castro - (33 SB, 5 CS, 87% success rate)

Every player listed has at least 40 stolen base attempts and a success rate of over 75%. Having this many players steal such a high number of bases at an over 75% success rate is astonishing, and much of this phenomenon likely has to do with the MLB increasing the size of the bases from 15 square inches to 18 square inches and limiting pitchers to two pick-off attempts per plate appearance. 

The MLB and its consultants brainstormed and eventually created and implemented these rules to revitalize what was a dying art of stealing bases, and they have accomplished exactly that.

Teams like the Cincinnati Reds (190 stolen bases in 2023), Arizona Diamondbacks (166 stolen bases in 2023), and divisional foe Kansas City Royals (163 stolen bases in 2023) have taken full advantage of these rule changes, and the Twins should heavily consider doing the same.

Not only did the Red, Diamondbacks, and Royals have three of the best base stealers in the MLB during the 2023 regular season in the previously mentioned De La Cruz, Carroll, and Witt Jr., respectively, but they also had complementary players who similarly stole a high volume of bases.

For example, the Reds had TJ Friedl with 27 stolen bases and a 73rd-percentile sprint speed, the Diamondbacks had Jake McCarthy with 26 stolen bases and a 98th-percentile sprint speed, and the Royals had Dairon Blanco with 24 stolen bases and a 100th-percentile sprint speed.

To complement Castro and his 33 stolen bases, the Twins had Michael A. Taylor with 13 steals and an 85th-percentile sprint speed. An 85th-percentile sprint speed is in no way lackluster, but the drop off in total number of stolen bases from Friedl, McCarthy, and Blanco to Taylor is significant. 

To further emphasize how the Twins didn't adequately attempt to steal bases beyond Castro, here are the Twins who finished in third through fifth place leaders in stolen bases with their sprint speed percentiles:

• 3rd: Byron Buxton - 9 SB, 94th-percentile sprint speed
• 4th: Royce Lewis - 6 SB, 73rd-percentile sprint speed
• 5th: Andrew Stevenson - 4 SB, 93rd-percentile sprint speed

The point of this exercise isn't to be hypercritical of the Twins and their unwillingness to steal bases at the same rate as other teams with fast players but rather to show that they have players with similar above-average and even elite sprint speeds to teams that steal at a high rate like the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Royals. 

Taylor and Stevenson might not be members of the Twins' 2024 Opening Day 26-man roster, but Castro, Buxton, and Lewis will be. The Twins will also have players who can adequately steal bases in Jorge Polanco (55th-percentile sprint speed), Edouard Julien (41st-percentile sprint speed), Max Kepler (52nd-percentile sprint speed), and potentially speedy utility player Austin Martin. Utility player Nick Gordon (49th-percentile sprint speed) is also a capable base stealer, but whether he will make the Twins' 2024 Opening Day roster is in great question.

Castro, Buxton, and potentially Martin are adequate base-stealing options and should be attempting steals at a higher rate. As evidenced by their sprint speeds, Lewis, Polanco, Julien, and Kepler are not elite base-stealing options, but Acuña Jr. just stole 73 bases with a 67th-percentile sprint speed by masterfully mixing an opportunistic mindset with a high baserunning IQ.

It would be a dramatic waste of time to suggest that the Twins begin attempting steal bases at the same rate as the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Royals. Instead, the Twins should aspire to become a middle-of-the-pack base-stealing team and steal 100 or more bases, which they have yet to do since stealing 135 bases in 2012.

Acuña Jr., Abrams, Hoerner, Kim, and current Twins utility player Castro prove that players can be highly effective base stealers despite not having elite sprint speeds. The Twins have capable base stealers, and it would be in their best interest to become a team that attempts to steal more often during the 2024 season.

Should the Twins attempt to steal more often in 2024? Who do you think should attempt to steal bases besides Castro? Comment below.

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[Riverbrian]

The Twins needs to take advantage of the adjustments made to the game like other teams have. 

Find a little more balance. 

Subtract K's

Add Speed

 

[DJL44]

I don't think they will get more steals out of the players who haven't stolen bases in the past but adding Lewis and Martin will help.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

The Twins needs to take advantage of the adjustments made to the game like other teams have. 

Find a little more balance. 

Subtract K's

Add Speed

 

Subtract Ks.  Bingo.  Weird how a players chance to score goes up when they get on base.  Weird how a players chance to get on base goes up when they dont K.

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Subtract Ks.  Bingo.  Weird how a players chance to score goes up when they get on base.  Weird how a players chance to get on base goes up when they dont K.

I 100% agree they need to cut down on Ks, but they were actually 12th in baseball in OBP. Not bad considering their K numbers. Cleveland and Washington had the lowest K% in baseball and 22nd and 23rd in OBP. 

[chpettit19]

I don't know that it's prioritizing stolen bases that is needed, but prioritizing athleticism. Stealing bases can be a huge boost, but I'd be happy if they could just start with going from 1st to 3rd more often. The teams that took advantage of the new bases and disengagement rules were the ones that have spent the last few years trying to build athletic lineups. That put them in a position to take advantage of the new rules. Slugging is still going to be a vital part of an offense, but finding guys who can still run while slugging is what the Twins need to work on. Lewis and Julien are a good start. Lee isn't fast, but he's a more well rounded player than their typical slugger profile. Jenkins and ERod are good athletes. I think they're heading in the right direction, but they've got more work to do.

[DocBauer]

A little disingenuous to comment at all on Buxton, Lewis, and Stevenson in regard to any aversion the Twins have to stealing bases. Buxton was never good enough physically to play even an inning in CF, was basically shut down thr last half of the season, and still stole 9 bases in 9 tries despite practically needing help to his feet every time. Royce was 6 and 1 in 7 attempts while playing in less than 60 games at the ML level, and coming off surgery. Stevenson was only up a few weeks, saw limited playing time, and went 4 and 1 in 5 attempts in his very limited time.

While elite speed isn't the only requisite to being successful at stealing bases, better than average speed sure helps. A good jump helps. The ability to read a pitcher to get that jump, or go on the right pitch, also helps. Very few successful SB percentage players...I'm not talking 5 or 6 over a full seasos...don't have at least slightly above average speed. 

The Twins have been more focused on SB in the minors the past few seasons, via draft and signings. I didn't expect Taylor to hit as many HR as he did, but I expected more SB. However, some back and hamstring issues undoubtedly held hum back. Were he back as CF depth in 2024, I think you'd see the HR total drop some and his SB attempts rise. Martin is the next guy up to add speed and a SB threat. Julien has shown before he can steal double digits. Depending on how the 40 man and St Paul roster shake out, guys like Helman, Keirsey, and Stevesnon might all be around/available and offer speed and SB possibilities. I'd also expect a few more opportunities from Lewis over a full season...do we dare dream about an even slightly more healthy Buxton..l

I embrace the idea of having more speed, overall, and swiping some more bags. But stealing a bunch at 60-70% success rate is NOT successful. More is a good idea. But more while maintaining a 80% ish successful rate is where a difference can be made.

The Twins ran much more in 2023. I think that trend will continue, and I think there's more speed on the way. But I don't think they have been reluctant to attempt steals at all. I think they've begun running more when they have guys who can, have picked good spots to do so, and have been adding speed where they can over the past couple of years.

 

[terrydactyls]

If the bases were really 18 square feet (as the article says), I think I could steal bases.  18 square feet is roughly 51 inches by 51 inches.  The bases are actually 18 inches by 18 inches.

[Craig Arko]

This is why you keep Castro.

[High heat]

I think a personnel change coming up will lead them that way .  Deshawn Kersey, Austin Martin, Castro, a full season of Julien, a healthier Lewis (maybe a healthier Buxton) All have good speed and a history Atleast in the minors of stealing bases.

 

 

[RpR]

In 2021, Kepler was 10-0, Gordon was 10-1 and Polanco was 11-6 in stealing bases. (the top three)

In 2022 no Twins player had more than 6 stolen bases.

I am skeptical that Baldelli will encourage more players to steal bases next year.

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

If the bases were really 18 square feet (as the article says), I think I could steal bases.  18 square feet is roughly 51 inches by 51 inches.  The bases are actually 18 inches by 18 inches.

yeah, that was a rough mess up on my end lol. I fixed it, thanks for letting me know.

[jmlease1]

I do think there's more opportunity for stolen bases with the Twins, now that they have players capable of swiping more bags.

Buxton will still probably limited in how often they want him running early next season; he's had too many issues with his knees and hip for them to be enthusiastic about letting him go. Julien in where I expect to see him running more: he was a good base-stealer in AA, but an excellent one in A-ball, so I would think with the rule changes he could do quite well in MLB. If Martin joins the team, I would expect to see him running as well, but he might not get the early nod; if Michael A. Taylor comes back (or they sign someone similar) I'm not sure there will be a place for him. Taylor can certainly swipe the occasional bag of course.

I do think the Twins will explore this space more with Julien being more established, but more because they're getting more players that have actual ability at it.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Subtract Ks.  Bingo.  Weird how a players chance to score goes up when they get on base.  Weird how a players chance to get on base goes up when they dont K.

Julien had the highest OBP on the team and struck out 31.4% of the time.  I am all for cutting down the K rate but the discipline to take walks is also important.  We have quite a few guys that swing at anything remotely close with 2 strikes and that's noit a recipe for success either.

[Craig Arko]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

Julien had the highest OBP on the team and struck out 31.4% of the time.  I am all for cutting down the K rate but the discipline to take walks is also important.  We have quite a few guys that swing at anything remotely close with 2 strikes and that's noit a recipe for success either.

Yes, although I recall plenty of called third strikes as well. Learning how to advance base runners is something this team needs to figure out, however it’s done.

[old nurse]

There was a time when am opinion piece like this would have contained the percent success rate needed to improve the team’s chance of winning.  That seems so long ago

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Julien had the highest OBP on the team and struck out 31.4% of the time.  I am all for cutting down the K rate but the discipline to take walks is also important.  We have quite a few guys that swing at anything remotely close with 2 strikes and that's noit a recipe for success either.

On Juien called strikes.  Real srikes?  The imps fat fingered him.

[darin617]

I have always wanted more speed on this team. I'm so tired of everyone trying to hit a home run. 

I would take a team of piranhas  any day over a team of players without power trying to hit a home run every time. 

[FlyingFinn]

Castro, Lewis and Martin would be my main base stealers. Julien is on first so much and stole bases in the minors and will get his share. Gordon has never been a great base stealer and I don't think he will be on the roster come spring training. Taylor was such a HR/SO guy so he had less chances to steal than other guys who are on the team the full year.

[specialiststeve]

Going to need to flip a bunch of the roster in order to increase the speed. At this point not likely. 

Buxton... he is done running.. period. 

Lewis... run? He also has injury history... maybe a couple extra but nothing crazy. 

Martin would be fine but where is he going to play.. at this point is a longshot to make the show unless we move some OF players. Which we could.... 

Othewise... Status quo boys.. status quo. 

[terrydactyls]

7 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Julien had the highest OBP on the team and struck out 31.4% of the time.  I am all for cutting down the K rate but the discipline to take walks is also important.  We have quite a few guys that swing at anything remotely close with 2 strikes and that's noit a recipe for success either.

Julien came up through the system with robo umps.  He hasn't adjusted to the terrible umpiring in the major leagues.i

[tony&rodney]

Running should be used more often as situations present themselves. The Twins definitely rn more this season. Of course, a more athletic and faster team will be more likely to run. The team also needs to consider the occasional sacrifice bunt. There are times this is a sound plan for scoring runs. Finally, scoring runs by shortening the swing when a runner is on third base with less than two outs adds wins. Sacrifice flies, ground outs, or via a safety squeeze, the Twins can still find ways to improve their offense. Stealing bases is just one way.

[stringer bell]

Adding faster, more athletic players will add more stolen bases. Unfortunately, that also means subtracting slower, less athletic guys like Solano and Farmer. I’d also add that Julien seem limited by leg issues most of his season with the Twins. His history is that of a pretty good base stealers i would expect more from him next year. 

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, High heat said:

I think a personnel change coming up will lead them that way .  Deshawn Kersey, Austin Martin, Castro, a full season of Julien, a healthier Lewis (maybe a healthier Buxton) All have good speed and a history Atleast in the minors of stealing bases.

 

 

Does Julien really have the speed to be a stolen base threat? I honestly have no idea, just wondering out loud. 

[Doctor Wu]

7 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Running should be used more often as situations present themselves. The Twins definitely rn more this season. Of course, a more athletic and faster team will be more likely to run. The team also needs to consider the occasional sacrifice bunt. There are times this is a sound plan for scoring runs. Finally, scoring runs by shortening the swing when a runner is on third base with less than two outs adds wins. Sacrifice flies, ground outs, or via a safety squeeze, the Twins can still find ways to improve their offense. Stealing bases is just one way.

I love to see players stealing bases (at least Twins players stealing bases!), but you are right, things like sac flies, hit and run, and safety squeezes can also be utilized more often. I'm an old school fan, so I love that sort of small ball. 

[Doctor Gast]

Totally agree that the Twins should SO less, get on base & take advantage of the new rule. I think most players won't steal unless the coach sends them. Maybe they have to school the coaches to send them more often when the situation presents itself.  

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think they should prioritize roster changes to increase stolen bases. They should utilize the talents they have on the roster but I am not sure they have much more that can squeeze out an 80% success rate.

They can be situationally smarter. If their right handed hitters that tend towards contact are coming up it would be wise to start the runner more often to stay out of the double play. Correa makes hard contact, bats right handed and doesn’t strike out as often. Those all lead to double plays. They need to take more risks with Julien, Polanco or Lewis on base in front of him.

[Trov]

Stealing bases can always be helpful, and in years past it fell off after Moneyball because the numbers said it was not normally worth the risk.  Really, it depends to me on the situation if it is worth the risk.  If you are facing a tough pitcher that getting any hits is rare, then stealing bases will be helpful, of course the situation needs to warrant it.  For example, if you are down 2 runs late in game, the risk may not be worth it, but in a tie game and a non-HR hitter up, getting that extra base will be helpful. There was times with Gallo up and it was pointed out, why risk stealing because he will either walk, get out or hit an extra base hit.  The odds of him hitting a single was never worth the risk of an out.

Also, base stealing is more than just being fast.  Yes, being fast helps, but it is about quickness and getting to top speed, and picking your spots.  One of the best base stealers of all time, and I say this not because of total numbers but his overall rate compared to his speed, is Paul Molitor.  He was never a speed guy, but stole over 500 bases in his career at a 79% rate.  His last 2 seasons he stole 20 bases and he was over 40.  Rickey Henderson, the all time leader in stolen bases had about 80% rate.  So if you go by pure rate Molitor was about as good, the main difference, was Molitor picked his spots where Rickey would run all the time. 

Point is, you do not need to be the fastest in the game to steal.  Molitor would get great jumps, figure when to run in the best counts.  It was a skill that has gone away, but hopefully is coming back. Teach the guys to figure out when best to steal and trust they can do it. Teach them how to steal as well. 

[gil4]

19 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If the bases were really 18 square feet (as the article says), I think I could steal bases.  

I would only be thrown out by 35 feet instead of 40

[Otaknam]

Rocco has shown some growth in two areas: more base stealing and letting starters go deeper. They even had a complete game! In past years they relied on power, not speed, even when a fast runner was on base. So it’s good to see some movement towards adding speed to the game plan. That said, they seldom did hit and run, aspect of adding speed to the game plan. Let’s hope the speed trend continues, and they can start that by signing the super sub Castro.