Starting to look like standing pat at the deadline was the right strategy

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I posted the following in the standing pat thread.  The majority of what I stated was spot on.  The 2 biggest things I mentioned in this post and another is that the Pablo Lopez trade will look better and better over time.  That we effectively got a low #1 starter for Arraez and was able to extend him and a reasonable salary was an excellent deal.  The other is the 2023 draft appeared to be a grand slam and would drastically boost the minors.  As the the big league team, the bats are starting to wake up.  It is being led by Polanco and Lewis as right handed bats and the left side continues to be solid.   The relief corps looks like they will be getting some potential depth option as well including Varland who was already called up.  Overall this will be the most talented team we have going into the playoffs since the early to mid 2000 teams.  Strong pitching,  Good closer,  creating a talented bullpen and starting to get a pretty good batting lineup.     Yes we could have found a better bat than Luplow or another reliever.  However the internal moves are as good or better and are not costing anything.    I would say as of now are chances are in the 4-5% range to either get to the WS and or win the WS.  Honestly I think thats pretty good.  Right now I think Houston has the best shot in the AL and I am starting to think we may be close to the #2 to #3 option.   The Orioles have a young team with an injury to closer and poor starting pitching staff.  Tampa has had injuries and removal of their best player.  Really the AL is wide open.   

 

I honestly think the bullpen will be pretty strong the remainder of the year.   Thielbar, Jax and Duran can do the majority of the workload,  Pagan and Floro can do your medium to low leverage.  Add in I do think we will be adding Keuchel.  Whether Keuchel is a bullpen arm,  gives days rest off for starting pitchers or allows Maeda to come to the pen,  it adds another arm to the pitching staff.   

Some stated we should have traded Maeda and or Gray, and I even brought this up as well.  However with the possibility on both (much higher on Gray)  the Twins can offer qualifying offers that get a 1st or 2nd round draft pick back if they reject the offer.   I think both will sign elsewhere and we will get a end of 1st for Sonny and a 2nd round draft pick for Maeda.  You have to consider that value vs anything you would have received plus knowing they can be major cogs to a potential run.  

The theme on this board is this is a flawed team.   I disagree,  I think this is the best constructed overall team in over a decade that is a tad light on right handed batting but not bad.  If Polanco, Correa,  and Buxton turn it on,  that fixes a lot of our right handed woes.  We just need the bats to wake up.   Correa has slowly been improving and Buxton looks like may be turning a corner.  I think as a team and the bats specifically we have significantly underperformed so far this season but we have the bats to compete.  This is by far the strongest starting pitching staff we have had,  and with Jax and Duran (even going through a bit of yips)  you still have a strong end of the bullpen.  That is a team if it comes together can win the WS but we do need the bats to improve.  

This is something I have also said for a while but I will continue to say.  The Pablo Lopez for Arraez deal is going to be very good for the Twins.  I suspect by the end of the year on a WAR basis Lopez will be within 1 point for this year.  Also add in the fact with the extension which it didn't sound like Arraez wanted to do you now get 2 extra years of Lopez because he was willing to sign a team friendly extension.   Losing Arraez hurts, but for the Twins not irreplaceable,  in actuality Julien is a very similar type of player (gets there with more walks than hits) but more power.    Infield bats we have a plethora of and we can continue to fill in any holes that pop up on the infield from internal candidates for the foreseeable future.  

I am fine with standing pat, would have been fine if we added a bullpen arm at the deadline or even had traded a starting pitcher and flipped some prospects for a bat,  however,  this is still a team that has a chance.  How high, maybe 2-4%,  but it is a chance that things can click.  Ultimately you need the starting pitching and this is the first year we can all say we have enough quality starting pitching going into any playoff series.  

[Nine of twelve]

As the old saying goes, many times the best trades are the ones you don’t make. 

[KirbyDome89]

Holy rose-tinted glasses.....

Talented pen? They're 24th in baseball by FIP since the AS break. Floro, Headrick, and Winder are all last guy types. Funderburk has thrown 6 Major League innings. Six. Is Varland going to stop giving up HRs? That's your 5-9 right now. Pagan sucks in high leverage, and with men on base. He has a FIP near 4 over the last month+ since moving up in the pecking order. Jax has been up and down all year, and Duran has looked pretty human in the 2nd half too. Keuchel isn't even worth mentioning. 

There was zero reason not to get a solid middle inning arm (or two) at the deadline. None. We're latching onto Varland, or a Paddack post TJ September audition because half of the pen is literally unusable in a postseason game right now. The bullpen was poorly constructed from the jump. Starting pitching going deep into games mitigated or hid that deficiency for quite a while, but the secret is out at this point. 

[RaoulDuke]

I am ok with them not adding anything big at the deadline, but not adding a reliever still looks suspect to me.

Duran is awesome, Theilbar is great vs lefties and decent vs righties, Pagan has had a good year but I still have ptsd from him, Jax has been streaky.  They are putting a lot of weight on Maeda being good, Varland transitioning well quickly, and Stewart getting healthy and right in time.

[USAFChief]

Not adding to the pen was a terrible decision.  

No matter what happens. 

[Linus]

Yea the idea that the pen is sufficient is pretty laughable. They literally have Duran and then cross your fingers. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I cannot see a situation where I end up believing this front office handled this past deadline well.

The Twins may win the World Series on the backs of Varland, Paddack, Stewart, et al being absolute monsters in the postseason. That'd be amazing and great but it doesn't change the deadline inactivity in my eyes.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I cannot see a situation where I end up believing this front office handled this past deadline well.

The Twins may win the World Series on the backs of Varland, Paddack, Stewart, et al being absolute monsters in the postseason. That'd be amazing and great but it doesn't change the deadline inactivity in my eyes.

In fairness you haven't been a believer of this front office for a while.  The issue is what would have the cost been.  Standing pat is going to achieve a couple things :

1. Get to the post season - check

2. Have a fairly balanced team - check

3. You have the pitching horses to give you a chance - check

As to the relievers - yes give me Varland, Jax, Duran, Funderburk and Thielbar.  Throw in Pagan and then 1,2 or 3 of the other options if they look like could help out of Paddack, Maeda, Alcala, Stewart.  That becomes a very deep and solid bullpen very quick.  They had a rough stretch for a while,  but they are beginning to tighten it back up since Funderburk and Varland came up.  I am fine with getting rid of Floro,  I don't see much there.  

[Trov]

16 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Holy rose-tinted glasses.....

Talented pen? They're 24th in baseball by FIP since the AS break. Floro, Headrick, and Winder are all last guy types. Funderburk has thrown 6 Major League innings. Six. Is Varland going to stop giving up HRs? That's your 5-9 right now. Pagan sucks in high leverage, and with men on base. He has a FIP near 4 over the last month+ since moving up in the pecking order. Jax has been up and down all year, and Duran has looked pretty human in the 2nd half too. Keuchel isn't even worth mentioning. 

There was zero reason not to get a solid middle inning arm (or two) at the deadline. None. We're latching onto Varland, or a Paddack post TJ September audition because half of the pen is literally unusable in a postseason game right now. The bullpen was poorly constructed from the jump. Starting pitching going deep into games mitigated or hid that deficiency for quite a while, but the secret is out at this point. 

There is a reason to trade for a solid middle inning arm(or two) at the deadline.  One, you do not know if they would have been any better than what we had, look at some of the moves we have made over the years for guys that either get injured right away (Sam Dyson) or regress right away (Lopez). Sure, it is worth trying sometimes, but our farm system was already considered getting thin, and it would have cost more prospects.  Prospects like Cano who has turned out better than the guy we traded for.  It would could lead to DFA some guys that turn out to be better than who we bring in.  

We do not know what teams were asking for some of the guys.  I did a forum the other day pointing out the guys moved and how only a couple have been that much better than the player they would have stepped in for. I agree the pen is not the best, and doing worse as the season moves on.  But to continue to buy rental pen arms at trade deadline will come back to haunt down the road.  I mean, what if the asking price for one of those arms was Lee, would you do it because we needed the pen arm?  

[Nine of twelve]

In a way this thread is beating a dead horse. (BTW that’s a really horrible metaphor, isn’t it?) The thing is we don’t know the specifics of any trade that may have actually been discussed. I’d be very glad to have a more reliable bullpen. What if it would have cost us Edouard Julien or someone similar or more? Deadline buying requires overpayment. Always. I strongly suspect that deals were discussed and declined by our FO because the return didn’t justify the cost. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

In a way this thread is beating a dead horse. (BTW that’s a really horrible metaphor, isn’t it?) The thing is we don’t know the specifics of any trade that may have actually been discussed. I’d be very glad to have a more reliable bullpen. What if it would have cost us Edouard Julien or someone similar or more? Deadline buying requires overpayment. Always. I strongly suspect that deals were discussed and declined by our FO because the return didn’t justify the cost. 

This thread was meant to show a couple things.  #1 the massive overaction of adding a singular player or two at a trade deadline  is not going to drastically move the needle and could decrease it.  FYI I am fairly certain Floro has been one of our worst bullpen arms at a 6.5 ERA.   It is also to show this front office is doing a pretty decent job at consistently trying to put a good product on the field for us.  No the bullpen will not be perfect, but the bullpen we will put out in the postseason will have a good collection of arms.   

Those thread had massive hyperbole.  What has occurred is the minors continue to get stronger with some high level prospects progressing very well and the big league team,  at least holding serve and is going to give us a shot in the postseason.   

Lastly,  I love the Lopez trade and extension.   Overall that may end up being the best move this front office has made other than trading for Ryan.  

[Woof Bronzer]

37 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

In fairness you haven't been a believer of this front office for a while.  The issue is what would have the cost been.  Standing pat is going to achieve a couple things :

1. Get to the post season - check

2. Have a fairly balanced team - check

3. You have the pitching horses to give you a chance - check

1.  Are you saying they would not have made the post season if they added, say, a bullpen guy or a bat?  

2.  Starting pitching is much better than the bullpen - not balanced at all

3.  Bullpens are an important aspect of pitching.  There isn't a horse in there except the ghost of Duran.  

This is a fairly astonishing take.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

42 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

In fairness you haven't been a believer of this front office for a while.  The issue is what would have the cost been.  Standing pat is going to achieve a couple things :

1. Get to the post season - check

2. Have a fairly balanced team - check

3. You have the pitching horses to give you a chance - check

As to the relievers - yes give me Varland, Jax, Duran, Funderburk and Thielbar.  Throw in Pagan and then 1,2 or 3 of the other options if they look like could help out of Paddack, Maeda, Alcala, Stewart.  That becomes a very deep and solid bullpen very quick.  They had a rough stretch for a while,  but they are beginning to tighten it back up since Funderburk and Varland came up.  I am fine with getting rid of Floro,  I don't see much there.  

Fair enough. I actually didn't want a big, splashy move at the deadline. I was pretty conservative, I just wanted a good reliever and a functional RHB. My disappointment that they didn't clear that incredibly low bar is very high.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

23 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Fair enough. I actually didn't want a big, splashy move at the deadline. I was pretty conservative, I just wanted a good reliever and a functional RHB. My disappointment that they didn't clear that incredibly low bar is very high.

I can fully agree with this,  we just don't know what that low bar would cost and if any of those low bar options were available.  

[Battle ur tail off]

16 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Not adding to the pen was a terrible decision.  

No matter what happens. 

If there wasn't a hammer available I was fine with it. Before the season started was the time to add guys and they failed at it the last 2 years now. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

25 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

1.  Are you saying they would not have made the post season if they added, say, a bullpen guy or a bat?  

2.  Starting pitching is much better than the bullpen - not balanced at all

3.  Bullpens are an important aspect of pitching.  There isn't a horse in there except the ghost of Duran.  

This is a fairly astonishing take.  

1.  Not at all, the hyperbole was that the Twins would not make the post season due to the poor management.  My stance was this was actually a fairly strong constructed teams that needed the bats to improve. 

2. I said balanced team not pitching staff.  The bats are beginning to drastically improve.  

3. Bullpens are important and here is the potential Bullpen we will bring into the playoffs.   

Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Funderburk, Stewart, Varland, Pagan, and 2 of Maeda, Paddack, Alcala and Winder and Keuchel.   

That is a deep bullpen, and some talented arms.   My concern is some of those pitchers may not be well tested going into the first series. The theory is we just have a crap bullpen.  The reality is we have some injuries to the bullpen, we have not focused on the bullpen and the front office's plan is to supplement the bullpen with starter arms.  I am not sure it will work or not but can acknowledge that it is a decent plan and could work.    

[jorgenswest]

Retaining Kepler and Pagán was the right decision against the wishes of many. Some were trading Polanco also. Those three are much more help than they would have received at the deadline. They were their first gamble and it looks like it will get them to the post season.

The second gamble is that in house options like Varland, Funderburk, Stewart, Alcala, Paddock and perhaps Maeda will be more valauble to the pen than what they may have acquired. That is yet to be seen but many of the relief options moved at the deadline have struggled with their new teams. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Fair enough. I actually didn't want a big, splashy move at the deadline. I was pretty conservative, I just wanted a good reliever and a functional RHB. My disappointment that they didn't clear that incredibly low bar is very high.

I'll agree with you on the reliever. Especially when Alcala went down early you could see that there was going to be need for a RH reliever in this bullpen and while I generally agree with the FO's belief that you shouldn't be allocating significant resources to fungible relievers on a regular basis, there was a real need here that isn't fixed purely by moving more starters into relief roles.

I was less enthusiastic about acquiring a RH bat; we should have enough gas to handle a LH starting pitcher with Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Jeffers, Farmer, Solano, and Lewis (even with Buxton going down again) plus Taylor and Castro. Frankly, I don't think there's room on the roster for a Garlick/Luplow type that's generally only of any use against LHP and the options that could have provided more would have meant either pushing one of the young guys back down and/or costing substantially more than I would be interested in paying for a rental/ancient one. (I mean, how much difference would Tommy Pham have made? has he actually been better than Luplow?)

I would have thought that they could have gotten a serviceable reliever for an A-ball lottery ticket guy, not a significant prospect. But I could be wrong: I don't know what the asking prices really were, and it's possible in attempts to pry a higher quality prospect out of the Twins other teams poisoned the well (and then were unwilling to drop their own price for the team that stood up to them). Weird stuff happens.

 

[Aggies7]

Gosh I wish I could be as optimistic about anything in my life as the OP is about the 2023 twins 😂 

[Brandon]

We didn’t need to do much at the trade deadline to begin with.  All we as fans were asking for was a competent RH hitting OF and a reliever.  We are probably fine without the reliever but you can never have too much pitching and we can still use a good RH hitting OF.  
I’m not too disappointed because the asks were small but we should have done something.  
Also Baltimore’s rotation is shaping up nicely going into the playoffs.  They got their top pitcher back from TJ today.  He is a solid 2-3 starter.  Grayson has a 2.95 ERA his last 10 starts after a forgettable first 10 starts.  Bradish has been solid all season with a sub 4 ERA.  Not quite as good as our but our offense is not as good as theirs either.  

[Woof Bronzer]

21 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Gosh I wish I could be as optimistic about anything in my life as the OP is about the 2023 twins 😂 

World Series here we come baby!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

24 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Gosh I wish I could be as optimistic about anything in my life as the OP is about the 2023 twins 😂 

I am more optimistic about the long term projections of the organization.  I am stating they have a 4-5% chance of doing some damage in the Playoffs.  That isn't exactly going out on a limb 😁.  

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I cannot see a situation where I end up believing this front office handled this past deadline well.

The Twins may win the World Series on the backs of Varland, Paddack, Stewart, et al being absolute monsters in the postseason. That'd be amazing and great but it doesn't change the deadline inactivity in my eyes.

Had that been the obvious plan all along I’d be ok with it. That it looks like the last resort and would be a lucky break if it happens makes it a problem for me.  They don’t really have a history of bringing up starters to get a taste as relievers so it would be hard to believe this was a long term plan. 

I have long been calling for some young starters to get innings in the pen and they have been seemingly reluctant to do so despite claiming the bullpen is relatively easy to fill.  It’s true that the bullpen is the easiest hole to plug but if you aren’t going to do it with your most talented young pitchers a move at the deadline is required.

I’m otherwise pretty comfortable with the deadline but man, one nice reliever would be a world of difference.

[TwinsDr2021]

Of course standing pat is the correct strategy because it would be horrible to have basically given up little to nothing to one of these Keynan Middleton, Sam Moll, Jose Cuas, Chris Stratton, Kendall Graveman, or Reynaldo López . I mean why have one of them when you can have an injured Stewart, when has he last pitched?, a not very good pitcher in Pagan, an injured Alcala, a soft throwing non strike out pitcher in Keuchel, a guy coming off of ACL in Paddack, a update down pitcher in Winder and a guy with an ERA over 6 since mid August in Maeda.

The idea that not trying to upgrade your not very good bullpen for a playoff team at a low cost is not a strategy, I don't care what anybody says.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

34 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Of course standing pat is the correct strategy because it would be horrible to have basically given up little to nothing to one of these Keynan Middleton, Sam Moll, Jose Cuas, Chris Stratton, Kendall Graveman, or Reynaldo López . I mean why have one of them when you can have an injured Stewart, when has he last pitched?, a not very good pitcher in Pagan, an injured Alcala, a soft throwing non strike out pitcher in Keuchel, a guy coming off of ACL in Paddack, a update down pitcher in Winder and a guy with an ERA over 6 since mid August in Maeda.

The idea that not trying to upgrade your not very good bullpen for a playoff team at a low cost is not a strategy, I don't care what anybody says.

The relievers have had varying levels of success.  I am ok with not giving up prospects in AAA, AA or even a lower level player.  What reliever would have made a drastic change in the W/L of this team?  There isn't 1 and even if you did change out 1 reliever we are only affecting 2-3 losses to wins.  Those won't result in any change in getting to the playoffs and may or may not affect  success in the playoffs.  FYI Stewart has been pitching going to rehab assignment shortly.  I am not saying this is a perfect strategy.  However for the costs associated with trades,  the standing pat strategy and trying to put some pitchers in relievers roles does appear to be getting better talent.  Pagan has actually done very well,  however if he can't pitch strikes he becomes ineffective very quick.  You can disagree, But in order to have a good bullpen we are talking about sending out 8-10 prospects to achieve a good to elite bullpen with proven bullpen arms.  No offense, I consider that idiocy.  No one would suggest building a bullpen of the names you suggested above at the trade deadline with many of those pitchers in the mid 4 ERA before the deadline.  As to many of your relievers their stats were not great before the trades.  We can all look at things after the fact and say hey that trade was a good one - while we just as easily could have had a Lopez situation from last year.   

34 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

 

[TwinsDr2021]

31 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The relievers have had varying levels of success.  I am ok with not giving up prospects in AAA, AA or even a lower level player.  What reliever would have made a drastic change in the W/L of this team?  There isn't 1 and even if you did change out 1 reliever we are only affecting 2-3 losses to wins.  Those won't result in any change in getting to the playoffs and may or may not affect  success in the playoffs.  FYI Stewart has been pitching going to rehab assignment shortly.  I am not saying this is a perfect strategy.  However for the costs associated with trades,  the standing pat strategy and trying to put some pitchers in relievers roles does appear to be getting better talent.  Pagan has actually done very well,  however if he can't pitch strikes he becomes ineffective very quick.  You can disagree, But in order to have a good bullpen we are talking about sending out 8-10 prospects to achieve a good to elite bullpen with proven bullpen arms.  No offense, I consider that idiocy.  No one would suggest building a bullpen of the names you suggested above at the trade deadline with many of those pitchers in the mid 4 ERA before the deadline.  As to many of your relievers their stats were not great before the trades.  We can all look at things after the fact and say hey that trade was a good one - while we just as easily could have had a Lopez situation from last year.   

I guess you completely missed where I said ONE of them and where do you come up with giving 8-10 prospects? No one ever said sell the farm for relief pitchers, probably NO one ever, but many like me said getting one would greatly help the bullpen in the season and playoffs.

Hey if the guys you listed do really well in the playoffs I am a big enough man to say I was wrong, but if they don't will you?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Retaining Kepler and Pagán was the right decision against the wishes of many. Some were trading Polanco also. Those three are much more help than they would have received at the deadline. They were their first gamble and it looks like it will get them to the post season.

The second gamble is that in house options like Varland, Funderburk, Stewart, Alcala, Paddock and perhaps Maeda will be more valauble to the pen than what they may have acquired. That is yet to be seen but many of the relief options moved at the deadline have struggled with their new teams. 

The thought that Kepler and Pagan would come around this season is mind boggling and yet it happened. The thought that Correa and Buxton wouldn’t really hit this season is also mind boggling and again it happened (although Correa has been a little better and is exceedingly valuable defensively.  
 

With all of the potential additions to the pen going into the playoffs, it doesn’t make me unhappy at all that we failed to add relief pitchers at the deadline.  This may not work, but these are definitely quality arms so I think it is a reasonable play.  Plus we didn’t have to trade away any more young talent.   

[Beast]

I couldn’t disagree more.  This bullpen stinks.

Duran has proven to be mortal.  Still very good, but it’s no longer a 7-8 inning game when he’s available.  That changes the whole complexion of the pitching staff.  Even if he were still dominant, you have to get the ball in his hands with the lead.  Looking at the following makes that seem nearly impossible.

Theilbar may be our only trustworthy set-up caliber guy.  He’s been great.  But, I’m still a bit apprehensive on him.  He’s nearly 37, had some fairly significant injury issues this year, and is essentially a junk baller (he’s a hanging breaking ball waiting to happen).  I don’t feel great about him being our best option against, say, George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vlad Guerrero if we play the Blue Jays.  But, at the end of the day, he’s been very good.

Jax has 9 losses, 7 blown saves, a WHIP over 1.2, an ERA over 4.  He’s just not that good.  It’s not a small sample size anymore.  He’s a mediocre middle reliever.

We all know Emilio Pagan.  I don’t trust him with runners on base in a high leverage spot.  Never will.  He’s one of the worst relievers in the history of baseball.  He just walked 3 guys and blew the save and took an L against Cleveland in back to back appearances.  He hasn’t had an ERA under 4.5 since 2019.  He still walks way too many people, and doesn’t strike out nearly enough to sustain it.

Floro and Headrick are absolutely awful.  Floro has a 6.60 ERA since coming here.  He’s giving up nearly 12 hits and 4 walks per 9 innings. Headrick’s numbers are nearly identical.  

Keuchel throwing 86 mph and nibbling at spots isn’t conducive to a bullpen role.  It’s absurd that he’s even in the conversation for a roster spot.  They pulled him off the street and he had an ERA of 9.20 and a WHIP over 2 in 60 innings last year.  He had a 5.28 ERA and WHIP over 1.5 the year before.  He strikes out half a batter per inning.  You cannot use this guy in a playoff game. 

Winder has been OK of late, but no way you’re giving that guy the ball in the 7th-8th inning of a tied playoff game.

We have no idea what we have in Varland.  He’s given up 19 ER over 18.3 innings in his last 5 major league appearances.  He just got shelled in garbage time against the Mets.  He gave up 2 absolute bombs.

Why would we be excited about Maeda at this point?  He’s given up 17 ERs in 23 innings over his last  5 appearances.  The Twins have lost 3 of those games, and scored 10 runs and 8 runs in the other two games to make up for him giving up 8 runs in 9 innings.  It’s not 2020 anymore.  He gets all of this credit for being a great postseason bullpen guy.  Was this in an alternate timeline?  He had a 6.75 ERA in the playoffs in 2016, a 4.05 ERA in 2018, and only 4 innings in 2019.  He was great in 2017, which might as well be 100 years ago.

This does not even remotely resemble a good bullpen.  Not even an average one.  I don’t like trading prospects for relievers.  But, they put themselves in that position by the awful decision making around the bullpen in the off-season.  Opting to not shore up this ‘pen was the opposite of the right decision.

It will play a major factor in the playoffs.  No doubt in my mind.  This bullpen is a powder keg waiting for a match in a big game.  Especially when you have a starter like Gray who can’t make it past 5 innings.  We’ll need to get extremely lucky to weather something like that.

[Beast]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The relievers have had varying levels of success.  I am ok with not giving up prospects in AAA, AA or even a lower level player.  What reliever would have made a drastic change in the W/L of this team?  There isn't 1 and even if you did change out 1 reliever we are only affecting 2-3 losses to wins.  Those won't result in any change in getting to the playoffs and may or may not affect  success in the playoffs.  FYI Stewart has been pitching going to rehab assignment shortly.  I am not saying this is a perfect strategy.  However for the costs associated with trades,  the standing pat strategy and trying to put some pitchers in relievers roles does appear to be getting better talent.  Pagan has actually done very well,  however if he can't pitch strikes he becomes ineffective very quick.  You can disagree, But in order to have a good bullpen we are talking about sending out 8-10 prospects to achieve a good to elite bullpen with proven bullpen arms.  No offense, I consider that idiocy.  No one would suggest building a bullpen of the names you suggested above at the trade deadline with many of those pitchers in the mid 4 ERA before the deadline.  As to many of your relievers their stats were not great before the trades.  We can all look at things after the fact and say hey that trade was a good one - while we just as easily could have had a Lopez situation from last year.   

I agree on not trading prospects for relievers.  That’s why you sign them to cheap deals.  They’re dime-a-dozen.

You could say “what difference would it make” about any player if you don’t think 2-3 wins is significant.  Really strange take.  It’s extremely significant.  A 2-3 WAR player has value.  Especially when comparing them to a negative WAR player (like Floro, for example).

There isn’t one single reliever we could had on this team that would’ve made a difference?  We could have signed free agents Chris Martin (1.17 ERA in 50 games), Matt Straham (3.29 ERA in 82 innings), Adam Ottavino (3.05 ERA in 60 games), Carlos Estevez (3.41 ERA in 58 games - 30 saves), Luke Jackson (3.14 ERA in 29 games), Tommy Kahnle (2.43 ERA in 39 games), Craig Kimbrel (3.39 ERA in 63 games), David Robertson (3.10 ERA in 54 games), Matt Moore (2.83 ERA in 45 games), Trevor May (3.70 ERA in 44 games), Aroldis Chapman (2.72 ERA in 55 games).

Every single one of those guys signed 1 or 2 year contracts with less AAV than Joey Gallo.

I can’t disagree more with the take that it “doesn’t matter.”  Take even one of those guys and insert them into the ‘pen and things look much more promising going into the playoffs.

Also, up until the recent mini-skid, we were within 4-5 games of getting the #2 seed and getting a first round bye and home field in the second round.  Crossing that threshold would be a pretty big deal for this team.

Really strange take to say the bullpen doesn’t matter.  No offense, but I consider it idiocy.

Again, I agree that trading prospects for relievers isn’t good.  Well, then don’t be incompetent in free agency and you can avoid it.  They made their bed, they should’ve slept in it to give this team a punchers chance in the playoffs.  This team has no shot if they’re running out some of these guys, and they can’t only use 2 or 3 relievers.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

41 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I guess you completely missed where I said ONE of them and where do you come up with giving 8-10 prospects? No one ever said sell the farm for relief pitchers, probably NO one ever, but many like me said getting one would greatly help the bullpen in the season and playoffs.

Hey if the guys you listed do really well in the playoffs I am a big enough man to say I was wrong, but if they don't will you?

1 wouldn't have made a difference.  I said in order to remake the bullpen into a strength of reliable relievers, it would have been costly.  A single reliever would not have moved the needle and actually supports the Twins strategy of standing pat.    None of the relievers you named look like a pitcher that could carry a team in the playoffs.  Right now we have 1 in Duran, if we can avoid the soft contact hits and walks - he is affectively unbeatable.   

I don't have to admit to anything 😄.  My stance was this was a good enough strategy to get to the playoffs and give you a chip and chair situation and allow the team to catch lightning in a bottle.  Now if we tank the remainder of the season yes I will own up.  That would be an epic collapse at this point.  For me the long term prognosis of the Twins is more interesting than this team which is why i think trading prospects for a semi flawed team this year or last year were ill advised.  I think we have a pretty big window opening here in the next year or two where the Twins could be a top tier organization.  This would be elevated if Correa can regain his prior form.  However with Lee, Lewis, Martin, Jenkins, and Julien  you have the potential of a very strong core of batters with some contact and power.  There are enough other depth batters in the organization to fill in with upside in Kiriloff, Wallner and Larnach and Miranda let alone all the over performers in AA and AAA.   We also look like we will get an additional draft pick from Sonny Gray as well, making that trade very favorable for the Twins.  Now we just need to continue to add to the pitching side, and I hope sooner or later they address the bullpen in the offseason.