Looking at the Twins' Most Valuable Contributors Is an Eye-Opening Exercise

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins are in first place and on track to reach the postseason for the first time in three years. In that regard, things are going exactly to plan! In most other regards, they are not.

Looking at the team's top 10 most valuable position players up to this point (per Wins Above Replacement) shows just differently things have shaken out for this team compared to expectations.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

With 140 games in the books, the Minnesota Twins are 73-67. There have been many ups and downs over the course of the season, but as we coast toward the finish line they are on pace to essentially meet their preseason win expectations – they were projected to win 83 games, per BetMGM, and are tracking for 84 this season.

That will likely be enough to win the AL Central handily, because all other teams in the division flopped to varying degrees. 

In this article, we'll use the FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) metric to break down the most 10 valuable contributors on the offense this season. In doing so, we'll find encouraging signs of emerging youth, uplifting tales of redemption, and a few players whose absences from the list speak volumes.

Before listing the top 10 Twins position players by fWAR for 2023, let's take a look back at last year's top finishers, to reset our expectations regarding where the team was planning to receive impact.

Top 10 Twins Position Players in fWAR, 2022

1. Carlos Correa (4.3)
2. Byron Buxton (4.0)
3. Luis Arraez (3.1)
4. Gio Urshela (2.3)
5. Max Kepler (2.0)
6. Jorge Polanco (1.8)
7. Nick Gordon (1.5)
8. Gary Sanchez (1.3)
9. Jose Miranda (1.1)
10. Trevor Larnach (1.1)

In looking at that list, it becomes dauntingly clear just how much offensive value the Twins ultimately would need to backfill this year – from departing players (Arraez, Urshela), massive drop-offs (Correa, Buxton), and complete disappearances (Gordon, Miranda).

Here's how they made it happen.

Top 10 Twins Position Players in fWAR, 2023 (through 140G)

1. Ryan Jeffers (2.0)

Jeffers just missed the top 10 last year, finishing 11th on the team with 0.9 WAR. The fact he was even close to making the cut, in a season where he played 67 games and batted .208, shows how much credit catchers receive for merely being capable. (So does the fact that Sanchez ranked eighth.) 

The Wins Above Replacement metric reflects a basic truth in baseball: good two-way catchers are incredibly hard to come by, and tremendously valuable when you find one.

That's why the breakout from Jeffers this year is so hugely invigorating. His standout bat (.269/.368/.462, 10 HR) combined with steady defense behind the plate enables Jeffers to lead all Twins position players in WAR, despite ranking TWELFTH in plate appearances. 

2. Edouard Julien (2.0)

Julien was viewed as one of the best and most polished bats in the system, a key reason the front office was okay with trading Arraez. Sure enough, the impact Julien has made since being called up for good in May has done much to offset the loss of Minnesota's cherished batting champ.

Julien's OPS+ this year (127) is almost identical to Arraez's from last year (128), and he has fulfilled a very similar functional role as a second baseman, designated hitter, and now first baseman.

3. Max Kepler (1.9)

During the offseason, many people wanted Kepler gone. As the first half of this season unfolded, even more people wanted Kepler gone. The Twins front office held strong through all of it, and their faith has been paid off handsomely.

On June 15th, Kepler's OPS fell to a season-low .625 as he went 0-for-2 with a pair of strikeouts. His WAR had sunken into the negative. At that moment, a switch seemed to flip in Kepler. He got the next day off, then came back and homered three times in his next four games. He's been on a tear ever since, slashing .287/.355/.543 with 14 homers, 15 doubles, and the usual stellar defense in right field. 

As a result, Kepler easily leads all Twins players with 2.0 fWAR during this span. His $10 million team option for next year is suddenly very appealing. The front office insisted that the trade market didn't meet their standard last offseason, and now will surely find a much more favorable one if they choose to shop Kepler this winter. Meanwhile, he's quickly solidified himself as their best left-handed power bat for the postseason.

4. Michael A. Taylor (1.8)

The Twins traded for Taylor in late January, seemingly viewing him as a nice luxury: quality fourth outfielder and Buxton insurance policy. As it turns out, they've needed to cash in that insurance policy in a huge way, and Taylor has answered the call. 

His defense in center field has been phenomenal, often channeling shades of Buxton. At the plate, Taylor has created a lot of outs as usual (.281 OBP) but he's bringing tons of power with a career-high 20 home runs. 

In past years we've seen an injured Buxton give way to guys like Gilberto Celestino and Jake Cave, so the impact of having Taylor play to the level of a solid regular can hardly be overstated.

5. Royce Lewis (1.7)

Recovering from a second consecutive ACL tear, Lewis spent the first two months of the season rehabbing and building up. He joined the Twins at the end of May, played brilliantly for a month, then went down with an oblique injury that cost him six weeks. 

Despite all of these setbacks, which cost him more than half of this season (after missing nearly all of the previous two), Lewis has consistently played at an All-Star and borderline MVP level when on the major-league field. In just 46 games he's produced 1.7 WAR, which equates to a 5.5-WAR full-season pace.

At long last, the former No. 1 overall draft pick is fulfilling his destiny, with the looks of a long-term franchise centerpiece. 

6. Willi Castro (1.5)

Discarded by the Tigers after posting a 0.7 WAR in 112 games last year, Castro was scooped up on a minor-league deal in December. The signing received little fanfare, and few expected him to make the Opening Day roster all the way up until the end of camp. Even then, the speedy utilityman's time appeared limited. A placeholder.

Instead, Castro has turned himself into a mainstay for Rocco Baldelli, filling in all over the field and adding value with his ability to run and switch-hit. Castro has spent time at seven different positions, including pitcher, and is 30-for-34 on stolen bases, adding an element that is otherwise almost completely amiss on the Twins.

Castro's WAR is already a career high and he has likely carved himself out a role as a very handy bench player going forward.

7. Donovan Solano (1.4)

Much like Taylor, Solano felt like a late-offseason afterthought, signing for $2 million with spring camp already underway. The Twins felt he was a worthwhile add given the uncertainty around Alex Kirilloff, their lack of proven right-handed bats, and their extreme swing-and-miss profile. Boy were they right on all counts.

Solano has been an essential force in the Twins offense, avoiding the strikeout-fueled slumps that have consumed other players and consistently producing all year long. Solano has batted .299 against lefties, and slashed .366/.511/.535 with RISP. His presence at first base, where he leads the team in starts, has kept the position from becoming a black hole in Kirilloff's absence.

What a pickup.

8. Jorge Polanco (1.3)

Polanco almost always provides value when on the field; he's just so rarely there nowadays. Twins fans have been reminded lately just how much of a difference-maker a moderately healthy Polanco can be, as he's retaken and revitalized the No. 2 spot in the batting order. Over the past calendar month he's slashing .304/.412/.554 with 21 RBIs in 26 games.

Keeping Polo healthy for October is utterly paramount.

9. Kyle Farmer (1.2)

Acquired via trade from Cincinnati in November, Farmer is one of the few players on this list who's lived up to expectations pretty much exactly. He was worth 1.9 fWAR in 2021 (147 G), 1.5 in 2022 (145 G), and is at 1.2 through 100 games this year, which would equate to a 150-game pace of 1.8.

He's been fine. A mediocre hitter and good infield glove who fits reasonably well in a backup role. Even with that being the case, he has still outperformed the next guy on this list, which is really the story.

10. Carlos Correa (1.1)

In the first year of his new $200 million contract, the biggest free agent signing in Minnesota Twins history has been their 10th-most valuable position player. Considering the methods and means by which they were acquired, the fact that Correa has been significantly outperformed by the likes of Taylor, Solano and Castro is nothing short of stupefying. Correa's been less valuable than the uninspiring placeholder shortstop option he supplanted (Farmer).

The only reason Correa even cracks the top 10 on this list is sheerly due to volume of playing time. WAR is a cumulative stat and Correa has played by far more than any other Twins position player, with his 546 plate appearances edging the second-highest (Kepler) by 130. 

To some extent, Correa deserves credit for staying on the field and playing through his plantar fasciitis condition. But this statistic, especially framed against the rest of the team and the rest of his career (he's never finished with a sub-3.4 WAR in a full season), really underscores how much of a toll that injury has taken. 

The Twins have found big value in unexpected places.

What really stands out about this list, especially in contrast to last year, is the names that are NOT on it. No Gordon, no Miranda, no Kirilloff. Most critically: no Buxton. Buck currently ranks 15th on the team with 0.7 WAR, despite managing to make the third-most plate appearances of his career (346). 

The Twins are on track to improve their record from last year by six wins and capture the division despite getting a combined 1.8 WAR from Correa and Buxton, who totaled 8.1 WAR between them in 2023 and are the team's highest-paid, highest-upside players.

Losing six wins from those two could've easily reduced the Twins to Cleveland's current level, putting them in an arduous dogfight for the final month. But instead, they've been able to rise above and separate, thanks in large part to young breakthroughs and sneaky good offseason pickups by the front office.

If Correa and Buxton can bounce back to anything resembling prime form next year (or better yet, in the playoffs) this franchise is going to be in good shape.

View full article

[Trov]

What it shows me is that we have an overall balanced team and have got good runs from several guys throughout the season.  This really is the best way to build a team, having depth and balance, in my opinion, versus the top heavy teams.  Yes, having mega stars are always helpful, but just as Yankees learned, if that mega star gets hurt, your team is not good enough to make up for that.  This year, we have shown even without our top 2 guys carrying the load we can still compete.  We also have a lot better pitching overall too. 

[HokieRif]

Who says we're still not in a dogfight?  As good as the first two games of the Cleveland series felt, this isn't over.

[terrydactyls]

The title of this article is a little deceiving.  This is just a numerical listing of Twins players by WAR.  If it were actually a list of most valuable contributors, I think MAT, Solano, and Castro would be much higher.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

This is an article that none of us could have imagined being written at the beginning of this season. Most of the credit is due to the FO for obtaining professional baseball players who believe in team first and who seem to be really good guys. Much credit is due to Rocco for keeping them playing and team focused. Much of the credit is also due to the players themselves, who are actually the ones in the arena. No one is perfect and we all make mistakes. (New major league record for team strikeouts.) Even so, this has been one of my favorite Twins teams ever. And I have been a Twins/Senators fan since 1954. "The Twins Way" really stands for always playing hard, practicing hard, encouraging each other and respecting the game.  Thanks, Nick, for an interesting article, which reminds me why I will a Twins fan for the rest of my life's journey.  

[ToddlerHarmon]

48 minutes ago, Trov said:

What it shows me is that we have an overall balanced team and have got good runs from several guys throughout the season.  This really is the best way to build a team, having depth and balance, in my opinion, versus the top heavy teams.  Yes, having mega stars are always helpful, but just as Yankees learned, if that mega star gets hurt, your team is not good enough to make up for that.  This year, we have shown even without our top 2 guys carrying the load we can still compete.  We also have a lot better pitching overall too. 

Absolutely true for the regular season. The postseason, where the competition level is higher, might be a different story, and we will need healthy impact players as the role players struggle to keep up. I wish I could believe that CC and BB were getting healthier for the postseason, but it doesn't look that way. Time to found out if the young players are ready to make an impact.

[miller761]

Symbolic of this year's team. No flashy numbers but a lot of good solid numbers.

[Karbo]

they've been able to rise above and separate, thanks in large part to young breakthroughs and sneaky good offseason pickups by the front office.

Lets not forget the fact that for the 1st time in years we have a very good starting rotation! That and the fact of rookies coming along is a huge reason anybody is talking post season.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

The title of this article is a little deceiving.  This is just a numerical listing of Twins players by WAR.  If it were actually a list of most valuable contributors, I think MAT, Solano, and Castro would be much higher.

WAR is an objective measurement of player value? 

[roger]

Considering this is about numbers, took a different look.  Our top 10 last year had a total fWAR of 22.5.  With a few weeks remaining to this season, the top 10  total 15.9.  That will go up a bit, but the real story here is how badly Twins hitters have compared to last year.  Yes, if Correa and Buxton had accumulated anything near their 8.3 from last year, the difference would be wiped out.  

The other point Nick may have been making is who the contributors of that other 14+ fWAR from last year have been.  Agreed, the front office did an excellent job of identifying talent as they built out the depth of this team.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

The title of this article is a little deceiving.  This is just a numerical listing of Twins players by WAR.  If it were actually a list of most valuable contributors, I think MAT, Solano, and Castro would be much higher.

And Lewis would be number 1  

[mikelink45]

I like to see a BR WAR comparison.  Correa is number 11 on their list. And Matt Wallner slips into the top 10.  Lucky for us the team stepped up, but what a year it could have been if the big contracts had produced.

Name	Age	G	PA	Rbat	Rbaser	Rdp	Rfield	Rpos	RAA	WAA	Rrep	RAR	WAR ▼	waaWL%	162WL%	oWAR	dWAR	oRAR	Salary	Acquired	Pos Summary
Team Total	28.6	1542	5357	17	3	0	7	-2	26	2.9	182	208	20.3	.502	.501	19.4	0.7	201	$104,499,590
Ryan Jeffers	26	83	281	9	-1	-1	0	4	12	1.2	10	21	2.1	.514	.507	2.1	0.5	21	$741,650	Amateur Draft	2/HD
Michael A. Taylor (10-day IL)	32	120	354	-2	1	0	5	3	8	0.8	12	20	1.9	.506	.505	1.4	0.8	15	$4,500,000	Traded	*8H
Max Kepler*	30	111	413	7	-1	0	3	-3	5	0.6	14	20	1.9	.505	.503	1.6	0.0	17	$8,500,000	Amateur Free Agent	*9H/D
Edouard Julien*	24	89	323	10	1	1	-4	0	8	0.8	11	19	1.9	.509	.505	2.3	-0.4	23		Amateur Draft	4DH/3
Royce Lewis	24	46	188	10	-1	0	3	1	13	1.3	6	19	1.9	.527	.508	1.6	0.4	16		Amateur Draft	5/DH6
Donovan Solano	35	119	391	9	-1	-1	1	-4	4	0.4	13	17	1.7	.503	.502	1.6	-0.3	16	$2,000,000	Free Agency	3H45D
Jorge Polanco#	29	66	281	6	0	0	0	1	7	0.8	10	17	1.7	.511	.505	1.7	0.1	17	$7,500,000	Amateur Free Agent	45D/H
Willi Castro#	26	105	329	-2	4	1	3	0	6	0.6	11	17	1.6	.505	.504	1.3	0.3	14	$1,800,000	Free Agency	758H/469D1
Matt Wallner*	25	56	187	8	0	1	2	-3	9	0.9	6	15	1.5	.516	.505	1.3	0.0	13		Amateur Draft	79/DH
Kyle Farmer	32	100	292	0	1	0	0	3	4	0.4	10	14	1.4	.504	.503	1.4	0.3	14	$5,585,000	Traded	456H/73D
Carlos Correa	28	126	546	-6	-3	-4	0	7	-5	-0.5	18	13	1.3	.496	.497	1.2	0.8	13	$33,333,333	Free Agency	*6
Byron Buxton (10-day IL)	29	85	347	-2	3	1	0	-7	-4	-0.4	12	8	0.7	.495	.497	0.7	-0.7	7	$15,142,857	Amateur Draft	D/H
Alex Kirilloff (10-day IL)*	25	69	258	5	-1	1	-5	-4	-3	-0.3	9	6	0.5	.495	.498	1.0	-0.9	11		Amateur Draft	397/HD
Joey Gallo*	29	111	332	0	1	-1	-1	-5	-6	-0.6	11	5	0.5	.494	.496	0.6	-0.6	6	$11,000,000	Free Agency	37H89/D
Jordan Luplow	29	21	51	0	1	0	1	-1	1	0.1	2	2	0.2	.503	.500	0.1	0.0	1		Waivers	7/HD8319
Andrew Stevenson*	29	6	17	-1	0	0	1	0	1	0.1	1	1	0.1	.511	.500	0.0	0.1	0		Free Agency	/8H7
Jovani Moran (7-day IL)*	26	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0.0	.500	.500	0.0	0.0	0	$726,200	Amateur Draft	1
Cole Sands (40-man)	25	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0.0	.500	.500	0.0	0.0	0	$723,650	Amateur Draft	1
Trevor Larnach (40-man)*	26	50	188	-1	-1	0	-3	-2	-7	-0.7	6	0	-0.1	.487	.496	0.3	-0.5	3	$733,650	Amateur Draft	79/HD
Kyle Garlick	31	14	30	-1	0	0	0	-1	-2	-0.2	1	-1	-0.1	.485	.499	-0.1	-0.1	-1	$750,000	Waivers	/9H7D
Jose Miranda (60-day IL)	25	40	152	-8	1	-1	1	1	-6	-0.6	5	-1	-0.1	.484	.496	-0.2	0.2	-2	$727,850	Amateur Draft	5/D3H
Christian Vázquez	32	88	304	-14	-1	-1	-1	5	-11	-1.1	10	-1	-0.1	.487	.493	-0.1	0.5	0	$10,000,000	Free Agency	2/3H4
Nick Gordon (60-day IL)*	27	34	93	-8	0	1	1	0	-6	-0.6	3	-2	-0.3	.483	.496	-0.4	0.1	-3	$735,400	Amateur Draft	874H/6
José De León (60-day IL)	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0						0		Free Agency	1

[Woof Bronzer]

28 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

WAR is an objective measurement of player value? 

Is bWAR or fWAR more objective?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If WAR were truly objective, we would not have different WARs to choose from. 

By the way, how’s the Kepler-Arraez OPS contest doing? Haven’t had an update in a while 🙂

[IndianaTwin]

37 minutes ago, roger said:

Considering this is about numbers, took a different look.  Our top 10 last year had a total fWAR of 22.5.  With a few weeks remaining to this season, the top 10  total 15.9.  That will go up a bit, but the real story here is how badly Twins hitters have compared to last year.  Yes, if Correa and Buxton had accumulated anything near their 8.3 from last year, the difference would be wiped out.  

The other point Nick may have been making is who the contributors of that other 14+ fWAR from last year have been.  Agreed, the front office did an excellent job of identifying talent as they built out the depth of this team.

Speaking of depth, Nos. 11-17 on this year’s team already have 2 more fWAR than last year’s 11-17 did.

Add 15 percent across the board to this year’s numbers for the remaining 22 games, and they come out fairly close on the hitting side. Which leads to a discussion on the significant additional depth on the pitching side compared to a year ago…

 

[Trov]

1 hour ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Absolutely true for the regular season. The postseason, where the competition level is higher, might be a different story, and we will need healthy impact players as the role players struggle to keep up. I wish I could believe that CC and BB were getting healthier for the postseason, but it doesn't look that way. Time to found out if the young players are ready to make an impact.

I actually think in postseason balanced team is even more important.  Yes, if you impact players are hot great, but with a balanced line up, any of them could help get hot.  We have a line up that for any stretch someone could get a hot series to help out.  When you have top heavy guys if they struggle if you do not have others that can step up you will lose.  In past years, if the top of our lineup did not produce we had no chance, but this year, we do not have any 1 guy that we have counted on.  There were weeks where AK/Lewis carried us, then got hurt.  We had Kepler carry us, Julien and Wallner had great stretches.  CC despite being not great, did have a few weeks where he was helping out.  Then some guys would have a run of a few games stepping up.  

Yes, if any of the guys have a hot series it will help, but unlike some past teams, we could get a good series from any number of guys, and we do not need to count on just a couple. 

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Absolutely true for the regular season. The postseason, where the competition level is higher, might be a different story, and we will need healthy impact players as the role players struggle to keep up. I wish I could believe that CC and BB were getting healthier for the postseason, but it doesn't look that way. Time to found out if the young players are ready to make an impact.

Incredibly SSS, but Correa has looked better at the plate since being moved to the 5 hole. Might be a hot streak, but it might be, and looks like, a change in approach.

Some players are strange about lineup spot. Back in May, future HOFer Juan Soto commented that he takes an approach in the 2 hole that has the purpose of moving runners over, and his numbers certainly were that of a good, but not legendary, baseball player while batting 2nd. A couple games later he got moved to 3rd in the lineup and has been on a tear ever since. 

It may not make sense to us, but perhaps putting Correa in a lineup spot that better suits him is just what he needs.

[Minny505]

22 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Is bWAR or fWAR more objective?

They essentially value offense the same. The difference, for the most part, is due to the metrics they use for defense. Regardless, they are generally quite close.

On the pitching side, they are vastly different. fWAR tries to capture how the pitcher performed, independent of their defense or sequencing of events. Meanwhile, bWAR attempts to calculate the actual value of the true outcomes of that performance.

Does that make sense?

[old nurse]

WPA/Li would order it

Jullian

solano

Polanco

Jeffers

Wallner

Castro

Kirillloff

Taylor

Lewis

Buxton

Most valuable depends on what you want to count

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Absolutely true for the regular season. The postseason, where the competition level is higher, might be a different story, and we will need healthy impact players as the role players struggle to keep up. I wish I could believe that CC and BB were getting healthier for the postseason, but it doesn't look that way. Time to found out if the young players are ready to make an impact.

I agree here. A team needs players who step up and shine in big moments to be successful in post season play. My best "pick to click" in that role is Lewis. He seems to thrive in big moments and you could see Cleveland pitching around him in the last series. That's the ultimate sign of respect from a really good manager in Francona. I also think that Kepler, Wallner, Jeffers, Julien and Solano have the talent and make up to have great moments or even a great series. I just don't see them carrying the team through a longer playoff run if we're lucky enough to get there and have that run. 

To me the big wildcards are Polanco and Correa. They both need to come up big. If they do, this team has the starting pitching to go places and might have the bullpen with the addition of Maeda, Varland, and Stewart's return to really compete. If they don't, I just don't see that we have the offense to do much more than maybe win one series, if that.  

[Blyleven2011]

What took the plan so long  to evolve  ....

Adding youth to this lineup has helped us towards a better second half than the first half ...

If we were to play all the veterans for the whole season  where would we be  , it was not exciting  baseball  ...

Lewis started late got injured , kiriloff  started a month late  then a shoulder injury  ...

Miranda never got started and was demoted after a month of misery ...

Wallner  got a chance while Kepler had a injury and was sent back to the minors when Kepler got healthy  , Kepler has definitely had a better second half and wallner is on the roster and playing fairly well ...

Julien  was called up and then demoted  , then  recalled and he was a spark  replacing Polanco  , Polanco seems finally healthy and is the only veteran that is producing down the stretch .... 

MAT , Farmer and Solano are over thirty  but Solano is having a good season with the Twins  , MAT and farmer have been average ...

Jeffers is younger than Vasquez  and Jeffers is hitting  and having a career year  ,  Vasquez  has been better defensively  in my opinion  ...

Correa , Buxton and Gallo   , correas defense is outstanding  for someone playing with plantar  , why has his hitting suffered if his defense is above average  , buxton is injury prone and has not been much of a contributor since injury in Boston of 2022 , Gallo has been washed up for some years and is a lefthander hitting sano  ....

Need I say more ,,,,

What takes this FO  so long to make the necessary changes to the plan , have alittle faith in the youngsters and play them ...

Lewis is our energizing leader now  ...

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

I think you had stretches were different players have carried the team for a period of time

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

They essentially value offense the same. The difference, for the most part, is due to the metrics they use for defense. Regardless, they are generally quite close.

On the pitching side, they are vastly different. fWAR tries to capture how the pitcher performed, independent of their defense or sequencing of events. Meanwhile, bWAR attempts to calculate the actual value of the true outcomes of that performance.

Does that make sense?

Yes, thank you!  So in other words, WAR is the opposite of objective.

[Minny505]

7 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Yes, thank you!  So in other words, WAR is the opposite of objective.

WAR is a mathematical equation that treats all players and their inputs equally. In that way it is objective.

How each of those inputs are weighted against each other is completely subjective though, which is how you end up with 2 (really 3 if you include Baseball Prospectus) different results for WAR.

That said, each different WAR equation for individual players come to roughly the same value about 98% of the time for hitters.

As @mikelink45 posted above, fWAR and bWAR are in near lockstep all the way down the list of Twins hitters.

On the pitching side, it is quite different. The two most prominent WAR models agree on Sonny Gray. Then they diverge rather wildly.

fWAR values Ryan and Lopez more than bWAR. fWAR also values Duran and Jax as having provided roughly equal value, while bWAR values Duran=Ryan and Jax=Mahle. As you can see, those pitcher values are incredibly different. According to fWAR, Jax is the most valuable RP the Twins have, while bWAR regards him as a fungible reliever. 

[joefish]

Solano has been huge for us this year.  Fan favorite. My MVP.

[DocBauer]

Jeffers came in to this season with a little over a full season of AB's. Same with Kirilloff. Then you look at what Julien, Lewis, Wallner, and the still only 26yo (I believe) Castro have contributed and the future looks pretty bright. 

Then you factor in Lee and Martin sometime in 2024, possibly Larnach still, and the pretty impressive past couple of seasons from Severino, and you almost have to put on sunglasses.

Oh, and how about a healthy Correa getting back to his "normal" self next year?

I'm not going to go down the whole "Kepler looked really bad before suddenly improving and UGH Gallo should have been gone" road. I'm just tired of those discussions. But I do have to wonder at the FO taking so long to make some of the promotions.

[RpR]

26 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

. But I do have to wonder at the FO taking so long to make some of the promotions.

They have not earned their way up yet; there is no room/need for them; not enough players have been injured.

[DocBauer]

21 minutes ago, RpR said:

They have not earned their way up yet; there is no room/need for them; not enough players have been injured.

I get it. We all get it. You like veterans and dislike prospects until they have an OPS of 1.000. And even then, they should never be brought up unless someone else gets hurts. And even then, they'd better look like a future All Star right away or they should be sent down.

By that logic, who EVER deserves a shot? Puckett should have never been brought up in the early 80's to replace the Hosken Powells of the world. Hrbek shouldn't have been up to replace Ron Washington back in the day. Mauer should have been held back until Pierzinski got hurt. Morneau should have sat until Dougie baseball was hurt.

I like veterans as well. Solano has been way more than I expected. As a fan, I was ready to move on from Kepler based on his previous 3yrs, but the FO was right to stick with him. But prospects NEVER get a chance to show what they can do unless given a chance. And when someone isn't doing their job, and you have a talented young prospect, you have to offer opportunity. 

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

 

I like veterans as well. Solano has been way more than I expected. As a fan, I was ready to move on from Kepler based on his previous 3yrs, but the FO was right to stick with him. But prospects NEVER get a chance to show what they can do unless given a chance. And when someone isn't doing their job, and you have a talented young prospect, you have to offer opportunity. 

I get it, you are a bit infatuated with rookies in AAA; if they show they belong in the Big Show they will be in the Big Show.

Years back , I read an article how some very talented rookies never really make it out of AAA for more than a hit miss; it said if a team has very good gents in AAA they are not going to send them to another team and remove the talent that can be called up if needed, until they have a place for them, until then, some one as good  , or better, if already in the Majors  wil stay .

Next spring, if they are as good as you hope , they can show their stuff and the FO will decide where they end up.

 

 

[DocBauer]

25 minutes ago, RpR said:

I get it, you are a bit infatuated with rookies in AAA; if they show they belong in the Big Show they will be in the Big Show.

Years back , I read an article how some very talented rookies never really make it out of AAA for more than a hit miss; it said if a team has very good gents in AAA they are not going to send them to another team and remove the talent that can be called up if needed, until they have a place for them, until then, some one as good  , or better, if already in the Majors  wil stay .

Next spring, if they are as good as you hope , they can show their stuff and the FO will decide where they end up.

 

 

You aren't wrong about promotions, in general, from the post you just made. And NO, I'm not infatuated with prospects...at any level...other than the usual hope and expectations you place on prospects. (It's the same with Vikings rookies, or college recruits you hope turn out). 

Nobody promotes some prospect in baseball "just because". You draft, sign, develop, and then promote because you have a top prospect that you like and believe in. This is the vitality of not only the sport, or any sport, but maybe more so for mid and lower market teams. While it's decades now as a comparison, the Twins traded Viola to the Mets for some damn fine pitchers. They didn't all turn out, but Aguilera and Tapani sure did, and West even helped. And then they replaced the likes of Freddy Manrique and and Chip Hale, and utility player Al Newman with AA prospect Chuck Knoblach to help win the 1991 WS. 

But they shouldn't have given him a shot as a top prospect because other veterans were available? Nonsense!

That's as misguided as saying Ober shouldn't have gotten a chance in 2022 over Bundy and Archer because he wasn't "proven enough" and only had to be brought up due to an injury.

If you want to discuss top prospects who didn't turn out, I could, unfortunately, give you a long list of Twins prospects going back to the late 70's and early 80's. One of the most famous failures was in the early 90's the A's had Todd Van Poppel, the next Nolan Ryan, and a few others. And there were others.

So yeah, top prospects don't always turn out. Agreed.

But how do you build a team if you don't trust in your prospects and give them a chance? By your criteria, Arraez was never a TOP  prospect but got his shot. And he wouldn't have if Gordon hadn't had an injury just before the Twins had a need and promoted Arraez instead as Gordon was having his very best season to that point.

Yes, prospects don't always turn out.

But when you have good ones, you have to give them a shot. 

Kepler, and even Pagan, have defied all odds of actual production previously, to be mainstays for 2023, and maybe beyond. I give credit to the FO and the coaching staff, as well as the individuals, to make that happen.

But you simply can't look at someone like Gallo with any honest lense and believe he's still a viable, and valuable player. He might be a good guy, and an OK defensive player, but he literally can't hit. His BA is around .150 since the break with a 50% SO rate. Take away his one game against the Phillies and he's gotten something like 1 hit a week since the break. But he's still valuable for what reason? As a reserve 3rd alternative at a position if we have nobody else? 

If you want to championship veterans, then you should be talking about someone like Solano, who is long in the tooth, but having a great year. But you should be watching the games, if you can, and just look at the actual numbers of production. And you should just realize that articles about WHO DOESN’T MAKE IT is very different from those WHO DO.