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With 140 games in the books, the Minnesota Twins are 73-67. There have been many ups and downs over the course of the season, but as we coast toward the finish line they are on pace to essentially meet their preseason win expectations – they were projected to win 83 games, per BetMGM, and are tracking for 84 this season.
That will likely be enough to win the AL Central handily, because all other teams in the division flopped to varying degrees.
In this article, we'll use the FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) metric to break down the most 10 valuable contributors on the offense this season. In doing so, we'll find encouraging signs of emerging youth, uplifting tales of redemption, and a few players whose absences from the list speak volumes.
Before listing the top 10 Twins position players by fWAR for 2023, let's take a look back at last year's top finishers, to reset our expectations regarding where the team was planning to receive impact.
Top 10 Twins Position Players in fWAR, 2022
- Carlos Correa (4.3)
- Byron Buxton (4.0)
- Luis Arraez (3.1)
- Gio Urshela (2.3)
- Max Kepler (2.0)
- Jorge Polanco (1.8)
- Nick Gordon (1.5)
- Gary Sanchez (1.3)
- Jose Miranda (1.1)
- Trevor Larnach (1.1)
In looking at that list, it becomes dauntingly clear just how much offensive value the Twins ultimately would need to backfill this year – from departing players (Arraez, Urshela), massive drop-offs (Correa, Buxton), and complete disappearances (Gordon, Miranda).
Here's how they made it happen.
Top 10 Twins Position Players in fWAR, 2023 (through 140G)
1. Ryan Jeffers (2.0)
Jeffers just missed the top 10 last year, finishing 11th on the team with 0.9 WAR. The fact he was even close to making the cut, in a season where he played 67 games and batted .208, shows how much credit catchers receive for merely being capable. (So does the fact that Sanchez ranked eighth.)
The Wins Above Replacement metric reflects a basic truth in baseball: good two-way catchers are incredibly hard to come by, and tremendously valuable when you find one.
That's why the breakout from Jeffers this year is so hugely invigorating. His standout bat (.269/.368/.462, 10 HR) combined with steady defense behind the plate enables Jeffers to lead all Twins position players in WAR, despite ranking TWELFTH in plate appearances.
2. Edouard Julien (2.0)
Julien was viewed as one of the best and most polished bats in the system, a key reason the front office was okay with trading Arraez. Sure enough, the impact Julien has made since being called up for good in May has done much to offset the loss of Minnesota's cherished batting champ.
Julien's OPS+ this year (127) is almost identical to Arraez's from last year (128), and he has fulfilled a very similar functional role as a second baseman, designated hitter, and now first baseman.
3. Max Kepler (1.9)
During the offseason, many people wanted Kepler gone. As the first half of this season unfolded, even more people wanted Kepler gone. The Twins front office held strong through all of it, and their faith has been paid off handsomely.
On June 15th, Kepler's OPS fell to a season-low .625 as he went 0-for-2 with a pair of strikeouts. His WAR had sunken into the negative. At that moment, a switch seemed to flip in Kepler. He got the next day off, then came back and homered three times in his next four games. He's been on a tear ever since, slashing .287/.355/.543 with 14 homers, 15 doubles, and the usual stellar defense in right field.
As a result, Kepler easily leads all Twins players with 2.0 fWAR during this span. His $10 million team option for next year is suddenly very appealing. The front office insisted that the trade market didn't meet their standard last offseason, and now will surely find a much more favorable one if they choose to shop Kepler this winter. Meanwhile, he's quickly solidified himself as their best left-handed power bat for the postseason.
4. Michael A. Taylor (1.8)
The Twins traded for Taylor in late January, seemingly viewing him as a nice luxury: quality fourth outfielder and Buxton insurance policy. As it turns out, they've needed to cash in that insurance policy in a huge way, and Taylor has answered the call.
His defense in center field has been phenomenal, often channeling shades of Buxton. At the plate, Taylor has created a lot of outs as usual (.281 OBP) but he's bringing tons of power with a career-high 20 home runs.
In past years we've seen an injured Buxton give way to guys like Gilberto Celestino and Jake Cave, so the impact of having Taylor play to the level of a solid regular can hardly be overstated.
5. Royce Lewis (1.7)
Recovering from a second consecutive ACL tear, Lewis spent the first two months of the season rehabbing and building up. He joined the Twins at the end of May, played brilliantly for a month, then went down with an oblique injury that cost him six weeks.
Despite all of these setbacks, which cost him more than half of this season (after missing nearly all of the previous two), Lewis has consistently played at an All-Star and borderline MVP level when on the major-league field. In just 46 games he's produced 1.7 WAR, which equates to a 5.5-WAR full-season pace.
At long last, the former No. 1 overall draft pick is fulfilling his destiny, with the looks of a long-term franchise centerpiece.
6. Willi Castro (1.5)
Discarded by the Tigers after posting a 0.7 WAR in 112 games last year, Castro was scooped up on a minor-league deal in December. The signing received little fanfare, and few expected him to make the Opening Day roster all the way up until the end of camp. Even then, the speedy utilityman's time appeared limited. A placeholder.
Instead, Castro has turned himself into a mainstay for Rocco Baldelli, filling in all over the field and adding value with his ability to run and switch-hit. Castro has spent time at seven different positions, including pitcher, and is 30-for-34 on stolen bases, adding an element that is otherwise almost completely amiss on the Twins.
Castro's WAR is already a career high and he has likely carved himself out a role as a very handy bench player going forward.
7. Donovan Solano (1.4)
Much like Taylor, Solano felt like a late-offseason afterthought, signing for $2 million with spring camp already underway. The Twins felt he was a worthwhile add given the uncertainty around Alex Kirilloff, their lack of proven right-handed bats, and their extreme swing-and-miss profile. Boy were they right on all counts.
Solano has been an essential force in the Twins offense, avoiding the strikeout-fueled slumps that have consumed other players and consistently producing all year long. Solano has batted .299 against lefties, and slashed .366/.511/.535 with RISP. His presence at first base, where he leads the team in starts, has kept the position from becoming a black hole in Kirilloff's absence.
What a pickup.
8. Jorge Polanco (1.3)
Polanco almost always provides value when on the field; he's just so rarely there nowadays. Twins fans have been reminded lately just how much of a difference-maker a moderately healthy Polanco can be, as he's retaken and revitalized the No. 2 spot in the batting order. Over the past calendar month he's slashing .304/.412/.554 with 21 RBIs in 26 games.
Keeping Polo healthy for October is utterly paramount.
9. Kyle Farmer (1.2)
Acquired via trade from Cincinnati in November, Farmer is one of the few players on this list who's lived up to expectations pretty much exactly. He was worth 1.9 fWAR in 2021 (147 G), 1.5 in 2022 (145 G), and is at 1.2 through 100 games this year, which would equate to a 150-game pace of 1.8.
He's been fine. A mediocre hitter and good infield glove who fits reasonably well in a backup role. Even with that being the case, he has still outperformed the next guy on this list, which is really the story.
10. Carlos Correa (1.1)
In the first year of his new $200 million contract, the biggest free agent signing in Minnesota Twins history has been their 10th-most valuable position player. Considering the methods and means by which they were acquired, the fact that Correa has been significantly outperformed by the likes of Taylor, Solano and Castro is nothing short of stupefying. Correa's been less valuable than the uninspiring placeholder shortstop option he supplanted (Farmer).
The only reason Correa even cracks the top 10 on this list is sheerly due to volume of playing time. WAR is a cumulative stat and Correa has played by far more than any other Twins position player, with his 546 plate appearances edging the second-highest (Kepler) by 130.
To some extent, Correa deserves credit for staying on the field and playing through his plantar fasciitis condition. But this statistic, especially framed against the rest of the team and the rest of his career (he's never finished with a sub-3.4 WAR in a full season), really underscores how much of a toll that injury has taken.
The Twins have found big value in unexpected places.
What really stands out about this list, especially in contrast to last year, is the names that are NOT on it. No Gordon, no Miranda, no Kirilloff. Most critically: no Buxton. Buck currently ranks 15th on the team with 0.7 WAR, despite managing to make the third-most plate appearances of his career (346).
The Twins are on track to improve their record from last year by six wins and capture the division despite getting a combined 1.8 WAR from Correa and Buxton, who totaled 8.1 WAR between them in 2023 and are the team's highest-paid, highest-upside players.
Losing six wins from those two could've easily reduced the Twins to Cleveland's current level, putting them in an arduous dogfight for the final month. But instead, they've been able to rise above and separate, thanks in large part to young breakthroughs and sneaky good offseason pickups by the front office.
If Correa and Buxton can bounce back to anything resembling prime form next year (or better yet, in the playoffs) this franchise is going to be in good shape.
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