The Change Driving Max Kepler's Heater

[Matt Braun]

Max Kepler has stung the ball since the All-Star break, and it’s apparent that an altered approach is the key.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Kepler has always been an enigmatic player. He walks a lot, doesn’t strike out much, hits the ball hard… and consistently finishes with a wRC+ somewhere in the 90s. Outside of the Happy Rabbit Fun-Time ball of 2019, there isn’t much offensive success for Kepler to hang his hat on. I’ve argued that his defensive value still makes him a useful player on the Twins, but I get why people would be frustrated with him; a guy that athletic with his batting peripherals should not be so average.

That’s why his 2023 looks fascinating. He sucked to start the year. He would probably admit that. But he made an adjustment to his profile this season, and it’s starting to pay off in a big way.

Since the All-Star break, Kepler is slashing .299/.346/.581 for a 153 wRC+. That’s a very un-Keplerian batting line. His old approach—wait around, stare at some pitches, spit a few times in the dirt before tepidly hitting a ball somewhere—was swapped with a new, aggressive mindset. 

He’s swinging like mad—over 50%, to be specific. That halfway mark is usually saved for the Bo Bichettes and Eddie Rosarios of the world, players with tremendous bat-to-ball skills who can hit any pitch thrown anywhere near the plate. Again, that hasn’t been Kepler’s game. He’s never been above 50% in a full season since he started his MLB career. But, it’s working.

The dividends are especially apparent on the first pitch. While the league has hit for a .399 xwOBA on the first pitch since the All-Star break, Kepler is at an astonishing .898 xwOBA, meaning he’s taking full advantage of unsuspecting pitchers perhaps getting a little lazy with their opening offering. Dating back to 2016, Kepler only owns a .354 xwOBA when the count is 0-0. Here’s him punishing Luis Castillo for placing a changeup higher than he would have liked:

Admittedly, much of his production is buoyed by four homers—three of them alone from the Diamondbacks series. He’s not going to carry a .898 xwOBA on the first pitch the full season—no one can—but he’s at a .632 xwOBA overall in that count in 2023, perhaps revealing that this is a legitimate adjustment only now seeing its full riches come to fruition. Six of his 20 homers are off the first pitch.

He’ll probably cool off a little once pitchers realize just laying it in there to start the at-bat is only going to cause them trouble. I think this trade-off, though, is a valuable addition for Kepler overall, given that his excellent discipline can help swing the count back in his favor if he starts waving at bad first pitches too often. The gaping hole in his profile used to be what happens to him when he gets a strike or two on the board against him. It’s not all his fault; most hitters stink when behind in the count. Making sure you never reach that count in the first place helps eliminate those 0-1 or 1-2 outs made while trying to protect the plate. 

Overall, I find this a fascinating example of how to interpret good hitting; I think the analytic dogma of favoring deep counts and walks swayed a bit too far for some hitters as it ignored the downsides of such an approach. Not everyone can be Juan Soto, after all. More pitches usually means more strikes. More strikes means swinging defensively, not aggressively. It’s the same sickness that plagues Daniel Vogelbach, who always seems to hit a little worse than the collective baseball community expects. 

Ultimately, the end goal of each at-bat is to get a good pitch and hit it. If that pitch is the first one you see, so be it. It may not result in aesthetically great baseball all the time, but that’s the deal a batter makes when having to handle the toughest pitching man can create. And, anyways, it sure seems to be working for Kepler right now.

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[JD-TWINS]

Not studying the stats but with every success he’s had with a first pitch, it seems to me, he’s had an at bat where he’s fought off pitches - come from behind in count - and just grinded out a great at bat for solid contact somewhere or a walk. Just looks so much more like a competitive hitter over last 6-7 weeks well past first pitch hunting.

Seldom seeing the pop outs to Shortstop nor rollers to second baseman.

Hope he keeps things rolling!

[Karbo]

He sure seems to have turned a corner. I hope he can continue as the Twins need him. Now, if they can get some of these guys hitting lefties they might have a chance. With these starters, aplyoff victory is possible, if they make it.

[Trov]

I remember early in 2019 it was pointed out the aggressive swinging of the team early in counts. Kepler has been doing that.  I have always said if you go up looking for a particular pitch swing no matter the count.  What I have liked about Kepler right now is he is willing to drive outside pitches to LC gap, where he used take those pitches more often looking for the inside pitch.  

[HrbieFan]

Healthy, confident and a lil lucky, Kepler is on a roll right now. Nobody pinch him 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Hit 'em where they ain't. 

[saviking]

Ah, the ol see the ball hit the ball approach..

[CRF]

I don't care if it's because he's eating Fruit Loops for breakfast instead of Lucky Charms...just keep it up. He was nearly an automatic out in the first half of this season, and except for the juiced ball year, he hasn't really done much at the plate. He's always been very solid defensively. If this turns out to be his last season here, let it be a good one. 

[arby58]

35 minutes ago, CRF said:

If this turns out to be his last season here, let it be a good one. 

I'm pretty confident the Twins will pick up his option. Even with a slow start, he has 20 HRs, a .775 OPS and 1.3 WAR. If he maintains that level of production the rest of the season, picking him up will be a no-brainer.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree, the Twins most certainly will pick up his option.  They will say goodbye to Joey Gallo and probably trade Larnach with the emergence of Matt Wallner.   That will go a long way toward relaxing the log jam of LH hitting corner OF.  The F.O. has a lot more work to do, but those moves seem quite logical and quite probable once the season ends.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I do think you have to be more willing to swing at the first pitch.  It is often the best pitch you will see the entire at bat.  The spray chart isn't much different than last year,  other than there are less outs at 2nd base area due to less shifts giving him some benefit.    That is obviously helping some.   When his OBP is around .340 and his slugging is in the .500 range or better,  he is an excellent player.    

[Mike Sixel]

Good article!

[jimbo92107]

A couple hundred years ago, Twins catcher Bryan Harper seemed to thrive on 2-strike counts. But Harper was one of the best bat-to-barrel guys I've ever seen. It's rare for a guy to thrive on 2 strikes. Mauer was good, Harper was good, but it's rare.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Great analysis, thanks for that. I think his more aggressive approach is also true of some of the other Twins hitters. I wonder if that's the approach change that is helping the offense - more of a "look for a pitch in a particular zone and swing early in the count" mindset. I see the same approach with Julien, Jeffers, Polanco, and Lewis. Now it doesn't work for a guy like Gallo, but for the better hitters it is the best approach.  Good to see. 

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I sure love what I am seeing post-ASB and definitely hope it continues.  I was one that was calling for him to play less time to open up at bats for Wallner and Larnach.  What I am confused about is why did it take him half of this year (and one could say 3 and one-half years) to figure this out?  Was he being stubborn and not listening to the batting instructors or were they not doing their jobs by changing his approach?  With all the video and analytics how was him not being aggressive missed all this time and what triggered this change (him or the hitting coaches)?

It's probably a combination of a lot of factors. I'm sure Kepler was trying to get himself back to where he was in 2019 (and he wasn't bad in 2020 either) and it's going to take time and failure to move off of that approach (which was spectacular...with the superball they were using that season). And I'm sure it took some time to build up a data set where they could show, "hey, you're getting a pitch you can really do damage on early in the count and being more aggressive will help". but also even when Kepler was struggling to get hit and show the power that had made a difference for him, he was having an impact with being patient and taking walks, so it was probably a little difficult for him to risk lowering one of the things where he was still being successful.

We'll see if this is a true change or a statistical blip. Being more aggressive early in the count has worked to help twins hitters in the past: Sano made this move in 2021 (before people panic too much, it was the injuries that ruined him not the change in approach) and it helped him do damage again.

[KBJ1]

Happy for Kep. Always seen flashes from him that show promise. Hope he keeps spraying the ball where pitched.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I sure love what I am seeing post-ASB and definitely hope it continues.  I was one that was calling for him to play less time to open up at bats for Wallner and Larnach.  What I am confused about is why did it take him half of this year (and one could say 3 and one-half years) to figure this out?  Was he being stubborn and not listening to the batting instructors or were they not doing their jobs by changing his approach?  With all the video and analytics how was him not being aggressive missed all this time and what triggered this change (him or the hitting coaches)?

It was really April and May that he was bad.   June 6th was the day it started turning around.  He had a wRC+of 122 for the rest of June and he just got better from that point forward.   Ther league knows what he is doing now.  It will be interesting if he can lay-off the 1st pitch out of the zone as the league adjusts to him punishing the 1st pitch.  It's very sustainable if he can incorporate that kind of plate discipline. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

Healthy, confident and a lil lucky, Kepler is on a roll right now. Nobody pinch him 

He went 0 for ? one game 8-10 days ago and hit 3 balls to the wall, 2 in center and 1 in left center gap……..not all good luck.

[gman]

In 2019 as a lead off batter, he often battered that first pitch. I believe he hit 8-9 lead off homers if not on the first pitch, early in the count. Then he stopped doing it. As far as walks go this is his worst year for drawing walks, probably because he is not taking so many pitches. His BABIP is also higher this year than it has been in 6 years, fewer shifts probably.

Pitchers got used to him hitting a certain way, let's hope they don't figure it out.

[Guest]

If he keeps this up, picking up his option is a no-brainer.  Wasn't long ago that I thought Max ought to change his jersey number to 4-3....

[Jeff K]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I sure love what I am seeing post-ASB and definitely hope it continues.  I was one that was calling for him to play less time to open up at bats for Wallner and Larnach.  What I am confused about is why did it take him half of this year (and one could say 3 and one-half years) to figure this out?  Was he being stubborn and not listening to the batting instructors or were they not doing their jobs by changing his approach?  With all the video and analytics how was him not being aggressive missed all this time and what triggered this change (him or the hitting coaches)?

Like most, I've been frustrated with Kepler.  I am more curious as to whether it was the Twins hitting philosophy which harmed him.

[Blyleven2011]

Kepler has always been a streaky hitter ...

Hope he keeps it going and would like to see Gallo gone by playoffs , he can't help us there  ... 

[Riverbrian]

I won't use the popular phrase "Too Little Too Late". 

In this case... I'll have to modify it to "Quite a Bit Too Late". 

It took him 2.5 years to figure this out... if he has indeed figured it out.  

I love watching him play right now but for 2.5 years... I didn't.  

[bird]

9 hours ago, CRF said:

I don't care if it's because he's eating Fruit Loops for breakfast instead of Lucky Charms...just keep it up. He was nearly an automatic out in the first half of this season, and except for the juiced ball year, he hasn't really done much at the plate. He's always been very solid defensively. If this turns out to be his last season here, let it be a good one. 

First half: Fruit Loops

Second half (so far): Lucky Charms

Count me as a hoper, but not yet a believer.

[bird]

9 hours ago, arby58 said:

I'm pretty confident the Twins will pick up his option. Even with a slow start, he has 20 HRs, a .775 OPS and 1.3 WAR. If he maintains that level of production the rest of the season, picking him up will be a no-brainer.

I'm not as confident about that. I would imagine their decision might be influenced by: 1) the performance and their perception about how viable Wallner,'s and perhaps even Larnach's futures are; 2) what kind of trade value, interest, and offers for Kepler are in evidence; and 3) their confidence that a free agent or trade candidate RH OF, one better than those available at the '23 trade deadline, are an achievable goal.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, bird said:

I'm not as confident about that. I would imagine their decision might be influenced by: 1) the performance and their perception about how viable Wallner,'s and perhaps even Larnach's futures are; 2) what kind of trade value, interest, and offers for Kepler are in evidence; and 3) their confidence that a free agent or trade candidate RH OF, one better than those available at the '23 trade deadline, are an achievable goal.

Given that (if they pick up his option) he is a free agent at the end of the year, I doubt his trade value will be particularly high. He will also be 31 before the start of the 2024 season. As for a free agent, I highly doubt they will find a RF with similar stats for $9 million or less (he will make $10 million, but if they buy him out it will cost them $1 million, which nets to $9 million available for a similar/better player). While Wallner looks promising, Larnach has done nothing of note this year that would cause the front office to part ways with Kepler when they have a team friendly contract for a proven MLB player.

[bird]

5 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Given that (if they pick up his option) he is a free agent at the end of the year, I doubt his trade value will be particularly high. He will also be 31 before the start of the 2024 season. As for a free agent, I highly doubt they will find a RF with similar stats for $9 million or less (he will make $10 million, but if they buy him out it will cost them $1 million, which nets to $9 million available for a similar/better player). While Wallner looks promising, Larnach has done nothing of note this year that would cause the front office to part ways with Kepler when they have a team friendly contract for a proven MLB player.

Yeah, I think you're probably right.

[LA Vikes Fan]

14 hours ago, arby58 said:

Given that (if they pick up his option) he is a free agent at the end of the year, I doubt his trade value will be particularly high. He will also be 31 before the start of the 2024 season. As for a free agent, I highly doubt they will find a RF with similar stats for $9 million or less (he will make $10 million, but if they buy him out it will cost them $1 million, which nets to $9 million available for a similar/better player). While Wallner looks promising, Larnach has done nothing of note this year that would cause the front office to part ways with Kepler when they have a team friendly contract for a proven MLB player.

Agreed. At $10m for 2024, Kepler is a bargain if he's the post June 6 version, overpaid if he's the 2022 version, and about right in the most likely event that he's a combination of those two versions. There also isn't likely to be anyone better at that price point for 2024, especially when adding in his defensive value.  Also, there isn't anyone pushing for his spot unless Larnach or Gordon is mor than they've shown so far.  Martin may be in the mix and pushing for a spot by mid 2024 but probably not out of the gate, Castro is a 4th or 5th OF/UTL, Gordon is probably on another team next year, and Prato is intriguing but also most likely a mid 2024 guy. I think Kepler stays on the option in part because he's been worth it since June of this year, and also in part because we don't have anyone knocking hard enough on the door to replace him. I think the Martin and/or Prato may give the FO the confidence it needs to trade Larnach and/or Gordon, but not enough to lose Kepler.