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Kepler has always been an enigmatic player. He walks a lot, doesn’t strike out much, hits the ball hard… and consistently finishes with a wRC+ somewhere in the 90s. Outside of the Happy Rabbit Fun-Time ball of 2019, there isn’t much offensive success for Kepler to hang his hat on. I’ve argued that his defensive value still makes him a useful player on the Twins, but I get why people would be frustrated with him; a guy that athletic with his batting peripherals should not be so average.
That’s why his 2023 looks fascinating. He sucked to start the year. He would probably admit that. But he made an adjustment to his profile this season, and it’s starting to pay off in a big way.
Since the All-Star break, Kepler is slashing .299/.346/.581 for a 153 wRC+. That’s a very un-Keplerian batting line. His old approach—wait around, stare at some pitches, spit a few times in the dirt before tepidly hitting a ball somewhere—was swapped with a new, aggressive mindset.
He’s swinging like mad—over 50%, to be specific. That halfway mark is usually saved for the Bo Bichettes and Eddie Rosarios of the world, players with tremendous bat-to-ball skills who can hit any pitch thrown anywhere near the plate. Again, that hasn’t been Kepler’s game. He’s never been above 50% in a full season since he started his MLB career. But, it’s working.
The dividends are especially apparent on the first pitch. While the league has hit for a .399 xwOBA on the first pitch since the All-Star break, Kepler is at an astonishing .898 xwOBA, meaning he’s taking full advantage of unsuspecting pitchers perhaps getting a little lazy with their opening offering. Dating back to 2016, Kepler only owns a .354 xwOBA when the count is 0-0. Here’s him punishing Luis Castillo for placing a changeup higher than he would have liked:
Admittedly, much of his production is buoyed by four homers—three of them alone from the Diamondbacks series. He’s not going to carry a .898 xwOBA on the first pitch the full season—no one can—but he’s at a .632 xwOBA overall in that count in 2023, perhaps revealing that this is a legitimate adjustment only now seeing its full riches come to fruition. Six of his 20 homers are off the first pitch.
He’ll probably cool off a little once pitchers realize just laying it in there to start the at-bat is only going to cause them trouble. I think this trade-off, though, is a valuable addition for Kepler overall, given that his excellent discipline can help swing the count back in his favor if he starts waving at bad first pitches too often. The gaping hole in his profile used to be what happens to him when he gets a strike or two on the board against him. It’s not all his fault; most hitters stink when behind in the count. Making sure you never reach that count in the first place helps eliminate those 0-1 or 1-2 outs made while trying to protect the plate.
Overall, I find this a fascinating example of how to interpret good hitting; I think the analytic dogma of favoring deep counts and walks swayed a bit too far for some hitters as it ignored the downsides of such an approach. Not everyone can be Juan Soto, after all. More pitches usually means more strikes. More strikes means swinging defensively, not aggressively. It’s the same sickness that plagues Daniel Vogelbach, who always seems to hit a little worse than the collective baseball community expects.
Ultimately, the end goal of each at-bat is to get a good pitch and hit it. If that pitch is the first one you see, so be it. It may not result in aesthetically great baseball all the time, but that’s the deal a batter makes when having to handle the toughest pitching man can create. And, anyways, it sure seems to be working for Kepler right now.
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