October's Dark Horses: Unmasking the Playoff Pathways for Baseball's Mediocre Teams

[Hans Birkeland]

Do middling teams that sneak into October and end up making noise follow a formula? Or is it just a crapshoot? Let's look at the numbers and see if the Twins could be one of those fortunate few.

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are currently dysfunctional, with the offense on life support and requiring consistent player-led interventions to avoid going comatose. But part of what was initially exciting about this roster was its combination of playoff-ready ingredients. 

Like it or not, this team will likely host a playoff series in three months, with a 55.9% chance of winning the division, according to Fangraphs. 

I have long held a theory that teams need at least three good-to-great hitters, at least two good-to-great pitchers, and an elite closer to compete in October. If this current Twins team has its hitters figure it out to any degree, that is possible, given their quality rotation and Jhoan Duran. I wanted to find out if this year's team is the type of mediocre regular season team that can suddenly thrive in the playoffs, so I took a look at the last ten seasons in MLB and singled out the teams with the best regular season records along with the pennant winners, to see if my theory holds any water. 

Methodology: A compiled list of all teams with the best regular season record in their respective league and pennant winners. Teams with the best record that also won the pennant were counted in both data sets and added how many 120 OPS+ or better hitters and 120 ERA+ pitchers each team while also including the WPA of their closer. For hitters, I included anyone with 200 plate appearances or more who were available for the playoffs. I used a minimum of fifteen starts for pitchers while being available for the playoffs. For the closer, I used full season stats for whoever the closer was once the playoffs began. The only exception was for the 2022 Phillies. I added Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez's WPA together because their usage was overly matchup-based when October rolled around.

Factor one: Having a group of good-to-great hitters

The most significant discrepancy between teams with great regular season records and teams with postseason success was their collection of hitters. Pennant winners averaged 4.5 hitters with a 120 OPS+ or higher, while teams with the best record averaged 4.15. Some outliers include the 2014 Royals, who had zero hitters 20% better than the league average while still winning the pennant, and the 2019 Dodgers, who had seven hitters eclipse that mark while losing in the NLDS.

The 2023 Twins have much work to do to assemble a group of plus hitters. Still, based on track record, you can have some hope that Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Jorge Polanco will gravitate to that 120 OPS+ level, with Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien , and Royce Lewis having the potential to join them. If you take an optimistic view, they look similar to the 2015 Mets, who had a decent collection of hitters, including Lucas Duda (who was good for a few years), Curtis Granderson, David Wright, and a rookie Michael Conforto. But the team ascended to another level when they acquired Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline for then-prospect Michael Fulmer. Going from four plus hitters to five made a massive difference for that team as they went 36-19 in August and September and eventually reached the World Series. 

Would someone like Paul Goldschmidt or even Justin Turner have a Cespedes-type impact?

Factor two: Having a couple of good-to-great starting pitchers
It has long been a cliche that elite starting pitching wins in the playoffs, but according to my data, it didn't make much of a difference in separating the regular season champs and the pennant winners. 

The teams with the best season record averaged 2.70 starters of that type, while pennant winners averaged 2.65. Notables include the 2020 and 2022 Dodgers teams that had five pitchers 20% better than the league average, and the 2013 Red Sox, 2014 Angels, 2014 Giants, 2015 Royals, 2018 Brewers, and 2021 Rays with only one starter of that type each. No team has won a pennant or had the best record in its league without a 120 ERA+ starter on its roster.

The 2023 Twins have three such pitchers in Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and Bailey Ober. Pablo Lopez (110 ERA+) could get there with a solid second half, and his peripherals make that possible. Only five teams in my data pool had four starters or more eclipse the threshold: the 2015 Cardinals (4), 2016 Cubs (4), and the aforementioned Dodgers teams as well as their 2019 squad (4).

Factor three: Having a great closer
According to WPA, pennant winners have had better closers than regular season stalwarts, with an average figure of 2.513. 

Teams with the best records averaged 2.438. The best performer was, far and away Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers in 2017, with a 5.70 mark. Second was Koji Uehara at 4.10 in 2013 for the champion Red Sox, and the worst was Sergio Romo's 0.3 mark for the champion 2014 Giants (oddly enough, Jansen's 0.4 in 2019 was the second worst).

Jhoan Duran already has a 1.3 WPA this year after posting an impressive 4.6 in 2022. Being able to deploy him in the playoffs, with all the extra off days, could be a huge advantage for the Twins if they can scrape in.

Comparables (Reached World Series with 93 or fewer regular season wins):
2014 Royals: Zero hitters above 120 OPS+, three pitchers above 120 ERA+, 2.8 Closer WPA
2014 Giants: Three hitters, one pitcher, 0.3 Closer WPA
2015 Mets: Five hitters, two pitchers, 3.7 Closer WPA
2018 Dodgers: Eight hitters, three pitchers, 1.5 Closer WPA
2019 Nationals: Three hitters, three pitchers, 1.8 Closer WPA
2021 Braves: Four hitters, three pitchers, 1.9 Closer WPA
2022 Phillies: Four hitters, two pitchers, 2.0 Closer WPA

2014 was a weird year, with the Yankees missing the playoffs, the Astros still coming out of their rebuild, and the Dodgers weren't yet the Dodgers. The thoroughly unimpressive Giants and Royals duked it out in the World Series, and those two teams did not have at least three hitters above a 120 OPS, two pitchers above 120 ERA+, and/or a closer with over a 1.5 WPA (we'll call these thresholds the test). The next five teams did; what about the regular season stalwarts?

Teams with the best regular season record that failed that test:
2013 Cardinals*
2013 Red Sox*
2014 Angels
2014 Nationals
2015 Royals*
2015 Cardinals
2016 Rangers
2018 Brewers
2019 Dodgers
2020 Dodgers*
2021 Rays

Teams with best regular season record that passed the test:
2016 Cubs*
2017 Guardians
2017 Dodgers*
2018 Red Sox*
2019 Astros*
2020 Rays*
2022 Astros*
2022 Dodgers

*Reached World Series

So of the teams that paced their league in regular season wins, four of eleven (36%) reached the World Series when failing my test, and six of eight (75%) reached the final round while passing my test. Of the teams that didn't post their league's best record but still reached the World Series, seven of ten passed the test.

My most scientific theory is that baseball is a stupid game. 

For all their success, the Tampa Bay Rays have an injury-battered rotation and a closer with a nerve condition in his fingers that flares up in the cold (does it get cold in October?). Further out West, does anyone expect Nathan Eovaldi to stay healthy? If he doesn't, the now-dominant Rangers will have a rotation of Jon Gray, Martin Perez, and Dane Dunning in October. Their closer signed in March for 1.5M.

The Guardians have three rookies, no Triston McKenzie, and the 2023 version of Shane Bieber (who they may trade) pitching in front of one of the worst offenses in the league. The Rangers and Rays have several quality teams trying to chase them down, by contrast. Certainly, the trade deadline could alter some things, but the more balanced schedule looks like a coup for the Twins and Brewers, at least so far.

The point is that the Twins are frustrating and don't seem playoff-worthy. But they are better set for October than the two top teams in the AL regarding their path to the playoffs and the roster they could roll out once there. We saw what happened last year with both the Braves and Dodgers exiting in the NLDS after dominant regular seasons, while the seemingly middling Phillies and Padres rode their good-to-great hitters and pitchers with elite closers to surprising postseason success. Like the 2015 Mets, it might take the addition of one good bat to turn this Twins team into a dark horse contender.

 

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[gunnarthor]

That's a lot of kool-aid, man.

[D.C Twins]

"The most significant discrepancy between teams with great regular season records and teams with postseason success was their collection of hitters."

yikes for this group! To be clear... we have '0' 120+ hitters

"you can have some hope"

Hope is not a plan!

"Like the 2015 Mets, it might take the addition of one good bat to turn this Twins team into a dark horse contender."

Be honest... there is no way that you typed this with a straight face! 

[jorgenswest]

2014 is a good season to consider. Both the Giants and Royals had to win a wild card game which meant they had to win three series to get to the World Series and then win the series. They won 88 and 89 regular season games. It is possible the Twins could get there.

I wonder if the season was unique in its balance. There were no 100 win teams and no 100 loss teams. There were only 6 teams with 90 or more wins and 6 with 90 or more losses. The Giants had the fourth most wins in the NL and 8 games behind the top team. The Royals had the fourth most wins in the AL and 9 games back of the leader. Can the Twins get to that status? It is hard to imagine they will be within 10 of the AL leader or have the fourth most wins in the AL.

I do appreciate how this shows their pitching can be impactful in the playoffs. I think I need to see them dominate these next 5 series against below .500 teams before I would advocate they make trades.

[DJL44]

They don't have to dominate to win in the playoffs, just play slightly above .500 baseball for a month.

[Doctor Gast]

Great article Hans. The team that does well in the post season & wins the WS is the team where their  hitters & pitchers get hot towards the end . As I've been saying the Twins have the players that can compete & advance in the PS. The biggest point is that Correa has to get hot that sparks this offense which he usually does in the 2nd half. And the rotation needs to maintain their effiency which they normally don't because of a failing BP. 

We could use more depth in the end of the BP (keep Pagan out of there) & try to to keep the rotation from being burnt out. If we can do this, I'm all in. '21 Braves barely made the play offs & end up winning everything. IMO we have the same path. Last year LAD had by far the best record & went home early.

[Hans Birkeland]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

"The most significant discrepancy between teams with great regular season records and teams with postseason success was their collection of hitters."

yikes for this group! To be clear... we have '0' 120+ hitters

"you can have some hope"

Hope is not a plan!

"Like the 2015 Mets, it might take the addition of one good bat to turn this Twins team into a dark horse contender."

Be honest... there is no way that you typed this with a straight face! 

Whether you think this team deserves to get there or not, they probably will. It's not fair and it's hard to picture anything going right with this offense, but being able to use Duran every game following a legitimate starter could change a lot.

Here's what the New York Post had to say of the Mets on June 30th, 2015 https://nypost.com/2015/06/30/mets-need-lucas-dudas-power-to-avoid-july-burial/

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

'91 Braves barely made the play offs & end up winning everything. 

The Braves lost the 1991 World Series 4 games to 3 to the World Champion Minnesota Twins. 

[mikelink45]

It is always good to begin the season and again after the all-star break with hope and wishes and crossed fingers and toes.  The record does not show that they are worthy, but they have a really weak schedule - much to our joy!  So maybe the baseball gods are being good to us and we will win a playoff game, but then there is Tito Francona!

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Braves lost the 1991 World Series 4 games to 3 to the World Champion Minnesota Twins. 

Hey!  Don't let facts interfere with his argument!  😁

[terrydactyls]

29 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It is always good to begin the season and again after the all-star break with hope and wishes and crossed fingers and toes.  The record does not show that they are worthy, but they have a really weak schedule - much to our joy!  So maybe the baseball gods are being good to us and we will win a playoff game, but then there is Tito Francona!

It is a weak schedule but the Twins are a combined sub .500 team against everyone not named Kansas City or Oakland.

[rv78]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

It is always good to begin the season and again after the all-star break with hope and wishes and crossed fingers and toes.  The record does not show that they are worthy, but they have a really weak schedule - much to our joy!  So maybe the baseball gods are being good to us and we will win a playoff game, but then there is Tito Francona!

Those darn Francona's. It's bad enough that Terry will outmanage Rocco again down the stretch and lead Cleveland to another division title but now Tito is going to jinx the Twins from the grave. LOL!

[Minny505]

7 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

"The most significant discrepancy between teams with great regular season records and teams with postseason success was their collection of hitters."

yikes for this group! To be clear... we have '0' 120+ hitters

This is not entirely true. The team does not have any 120+ hitters that qualify for the batting title, in fact only Correa and Buxton clear that requisit.

But they do have 3 regulars that clear that number: Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Ryan Jeffers. 

Your overarching point is valid still. Hoping that those three can maintain and/or Polanco, Buxton, Correa turn it around, is a lot of hope.

[Danchat]

The Rays need a starter, hm? How about we offer them Sonny Gray for the next Joe Ryan and change?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

That's a lot of kool-aid, man.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

 '91 Braves barely made the play offs & end up winning everything. 

And you call yourself a Twins fan?!
how did you pass the quiz in order to get your TD login credentials?

[jkcarew]

“Still, based on track record, you can have some hope that Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Jorge Polanco will gravitate to that 120 OPS+ level,”

Polanco has a 111 career OPS+. Buxton 106. They’re 29 and apparently not fully healthy.

The Mets got to 90 wins and played a team with 92 wins in the first round…and played the 3rd place team in the NLC for the pennant (the Cubs when they were still the Cubs).

Could a bunch of veterans suddenly over perform? Could a bunch of rookies suddenly get it? Could the Twins do a once-in-a-decade tap dance through the AL playoffs?

Yes to all. Highly unlikely…and not something you should spend a legit prospect on. 
 

Meanwhile, winning the division doesn’t require anything beyond marginal improvement.

[Eris]

Does good to great hitters equal not striking out a lot. I would be interested in knowing if there is a correlation between SO and making it to the World Series. 

[ashbury]

Good things can happen to good people. Why not us?  You don't have to accept the sunniest outlook offered in this article to at least accept that weird shtuff happens all the time in baseball.

I'm not willing to slap the casual fan base in the face, with a depleted roster entering the post-season.  I am at odds on principle with those who favor tanking, and/or who dismiss being around .500 inherently.  Yes, most years .500 is a Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Season if you thought you were a contender.  Not 2023.  So, unless the team drops out of contention in the coming two weeks, I'm against trading Sonny Gray.  He starts Game 1 if we make it there, and either way the compensation draft pick is a hedge against trying to have a chance.

A team with a good starting rotation has a puncher's chance.

I think it's unfair to say I'm partaking in some corporate flavored-drink mix powder with this moderate approach, but it's already been hurled at someone.

[jkcarew]

I see a lot of “but the 87 Twins” or “but the 91 Braves”….not just in this thread, but everywhere.

But, anything before the format change really isn’t analogous. Aside from the fact that you had to win one of only two divisions (more likely that you have at least one legit team to outpace)…but more importantly, you only had to win one series to get to the WS.

It’s now basically twice as hard to get to the WS…and that’s if you’re NOT the underdog. For the 2023 Twins, that’d be beating two teams back-to-back that are around 10 games better than you…actually probably more adjusted for strength of schedule. (The schedules are still unbalanced, just not as much as in past).

More recently, the Phillies won ‘only’ 87 games. But they played in a great division…38 games against 100-win teams in their own division. 87 was a strong number. 87 in the 2023 ALC, isn’t at all similar.

Agree that the 2015 Mets are probably as good an analogy as any. A once-in-a-decade occurrence, that relied on a lot of luck in term of match-ups. But they were 43-30 in the second half…even in a relatively week division, decent momentum.

So…I’d trade Gray, depending upon the get…it wouldn’t necessarily cost us this division. There’s about a zero chance that’s going to happen. So, I’ll live with keeping him and doing the QO (if he stays good/healthy). Just please don’t go nuts on rentals with anything more than lottery tickets. This is not the year. Twins should be focusing on the happy opportunity to compete for a division while simultaneously moving to a new core…or at least not further delaying that move.

[dxpavelka]

Just win games

 

[jkcarew]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Good things can happen to good people. Why not us?

I fear there’s an implied assumption here that may not hold up for all of ‘us’.

On behalf of THAT ‘us’, I’d like to say that we sincerely apologize. We didn’t realize the harmful impact we could have on the AL postseason (and…um…loved ones, or whatever). And if not for it being way too late to matter, we would do whatever we could to make it right.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Good things can happen to good people.

 

4 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

I fear there’s an implied assumption here that may not hold up for all of ‘us’.

I see your point.  Fortunately, good things can happen to you and me, too.

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

And you call yourself a Twins fan?!
how did you pass the quiz in order to get your TD login credentials?

WOW! how did I make such a mistake! This is probally the biggest brain fart I've ever made! I meant '21

[Riverbrian]

The Astros had 5 hitters last year

Alvarez 187

Altuve 160

Bregman 133

Tucker 128

Brantley 125

In the playoffs

Jose Altuve had an OPS of .483 over 58 playoff at-bats. 

 

It was Jeremy Pena who had a 1.005 OPS over 58 playoff at-bats who led the way to a title. 

Pena Regular Season OPS+ was 101. 

It was Yuli Gurriel who had an OPS of .850 during the playoff run over 49 AB's. which followed a regular season with an OPS+ of 84. 

I'll let others keep looking at regular season performance and think it matters come playoff time. 

[KBJ1]

This 2019 mentality of lofting the ball & swinging for the fences has to go! 

Rocco said as much when he recently lamented that they just can't string hits together.  When will the players wake up and start tracking the pitch and barreling up line drives?? 

The starting pitching is definitely there.

The bullpen, when healthy, is solid, but Pagan & Sands have to go.

The hitters?? 2022 April & May, Buxton looked other worldly, since then injuries and swinging for the fences have turned him into Joey Gallo.

Correa should know better.

Polanco needs to get healthy.

That pins our hopes on Lewis, Kirrilof, Lanarch, Walner, Kepler doing what Solano is doing.

Our 3 utility players group of Solano, Farmer & Castro is one of the best in baseball. 

But that is what they are supposed to be.

It's the starters that Suck!

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

WOW! how did I make such a mistake! This is probally the biggest brain fart I've ever made! I meant '21

The 21 Braves are a good example. They were not buyers at the deadline. They did buy low on three veteran outfielders in Soler, Rosario and Duvall. Soler and Rosario were having particularly poor seasons. They get them they traded Pablo Sandoval, Alex Jackson (failed prospect out of options) and minor league reliever Kasey Kalich. They also added reliever Rich Rodriguez for Bryse Wilson who was also going to be out of options with a 5.88 ERA.

The Braves wisely identified two outfielders they could fix and turn around their seasons. It cost virtually nothing. In fact they received cash with Rosario in the Sandoval deal.

Can the Twins identify those buy low turn around candidates to acquire? It does seem like they have a few of those candidates already on the roster.

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Agree that the 2015 Mets are probably as good an analogy as any. A once-in-a-decade occurrence, that relied on a lot of luck in term of match-ups. But they were 43-30 in the second half…even in a relatively week division, decent momentum.

It's been almost a decade.....

[TopGunn#22]

Doc Gast, it was just a typo!  You know your Twins.  But it's reasonable to expect a good amount of teasing anyway!

Anytime a team can pitch like the Twins they have a chance.  Go look at the lineup the 1973 Mets had that made the World Series! They were starting an 80 year old Willie Mays in CF!!  There is no doubt that ONE bat will not "fix" the Twins moribund offense.  But guys like Bellinger and Pham would be "cheap" acquisitions.  Pham has that "Shannon Stewart" vibe and would be a half season rental.  Bellinger is appealing because of the Gold Glove defense in CF but would necessitate moving Gallo AND Kepler, as well as blocking opportunities for Larnach and Wallner (if Gallo and Kepler could be sent packing).   

And of course if Correa and Buxton could show some sort of improvement that would be huge.  

But there is a potential blockbuster deal that COULD transform the lineup and take a little pressure off everybody else that could enable improvement by other key contributors.  It all depends on the St. Louis Cardinals.  Are they willing to trade away key pieces in the hopes of a major reset for 2024?  Or would the fanbase of baseball's best city rebel over the reset?  Using BBTV's numbers.

Twins Get:   3B Nolan Arenado -11.6  32 y/o, 1B Paul Goldschmidt +21.1 value 35 y/o and cash to offset some of Arenado's cost.

Cards Get:  1B/3B Jose Miranda +8.9 value.  SP Louis Varland +10.3 value and RHP Josh Winder 5.8 value.  The money the Cards would send over would be significant in order to acquire players the value the Twins are sending.  Arenado's negative value enables a deal of this magnitude. 

The Twins would have Arenado through 2027.  They would have Goldy through 2024.  If the Pohlad's are willing to move the Twins budget up a bit from MLB middle of the pack the Twins could either extend Sonny Gray or sign a FA SP to go with a 2024 rotation that would include Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober.  Chris Paddock's health and performance after getting a look at him before the end of this season would also be in the mix.  But a lineup that would feature Goldy and Arenado would be significantly stronger.  Especially when you consider the defense they would provide and if the Twins could devise a lineup and defensive alignment that kept Lewis, Kirilloff and Julien as regular contributors...both for the remainder of this season, but for 2024 as well.  

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The 21 Braves are a good example. They were not buyers at the deadline. They did buy low on three veteran outfielders in Soler, Rosario and Duvall. Soler and Rosario were having particularly poor seasons. They get them they traded Pablo Sandoval, Alex Jackson (failed prospect out of options) and minor league reliever Kasey Kalich. They also added reliever Rich Rodriguez for Bryse Wilson who was also going to be out of options with a 5.88 ERA.

The Braves wisely identified two outfielders they could fix and turn around their seasons. It cost virtually nothing. In fact they received cash with Rosario in the Sandoval deal.

Can the Twins identify those buy low turn around candidates to acquire? It does seem like they have a few of those candidates already on the roster.

Yep... great post. 

We don't have to trade Brooks Lee to improve THIS offense. 

Basically... this offense can improve through simple subtraction. If we acquire a .230 hitter we have improved the offense... not by leaps and bounds but improvement nonetheless.