October's Dark Horses: Unmasking the Playoff Pathways for Baseball's Mediocre Teams

"The most significant discrepancy between teams with great regular season records and teams with postseason success was their collection of hitters."

yikes for this group! To be clear... we have '0' 120+ hitters

"you can have some hope"

Hope is not a plan!

"Like the 2015 Mets, it might take the addition of one good bat to turn this Twins team into a dark horse contender."

Be honest... there is no way that you typed this with a straight face! 

2014 is a good season to consider. Both the Giants and Royals had to win a wild card game which meant they had to win three series to get to the World Series and then win the series. They won 88 and 89 regular season games. It is possible the Twins could get there.

I wonder if the season was unique in its balance. There were no 100 win teams and no 100 loss teams. There were only 6 teams with 90 or more wins and 6 with 90 or more losses. The Giants had the fourth most wins in the NL and 8 games behind the top team. The Royals had the fourth most wins in the AL and 9 games back of the leader. Can the Twins get to that status? It is hard to imagine they will be within 10 of the AL leader or have the fourth most wins in the AL.

I do appreciate how this shows their pitching can be impactful in the playoffs. I think I need to see them dominate these next 5 series against below .500 teams before I would advocate they make trades.

They don't have to dominate to win in the playoffs, just play slightly above .500 baseball for a month.

Great article Hans. The team that does well in the post season & wins the WS is the team where their  hitters & pitchers get hot towards the end . As I've been saying the Twins have the players that can compete & advance in the PS. The biggest point is that Correa has to get hot that sparks this offense which he usually does in the 2nd half. And the rotation needs to maintain their effiency which they normally don't because of a failing BP. 

We could use more depth in the end of the BP (keep Pagan out of there) & try to to keep the rotation from being burnt out. If we can do this, I'm all in. '21 Braves barely made the play offs & end up winning everything. IMO we have the same path. Last year LAD had by far the best record & went home early.

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

It is always good to begin the season and again after the all-star break with hope and wishes and crossed fingers and toes.  The record does not show that they are worthy, but they have a really weak schedule - much to our joy!  So maybe the baseball gods are being good to us and we will win a playoff game, but then there is Tito Francona!

Those darn Francona's. It's bad enough that Terry will outmanage Rocco again down the stretch and lead Cleveland to another division title but now Tito is going to jinx the Twins from the grave. LOL!

7 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

"The most significant discrepancy between teams with great regular season records and teams with postseason success was their collection of hitters."

yikes for this group! To be clear... we have '0' 120+ hitters

This is not entirely true. The team does not have any 120+ hitters that qualify for the batting title, in fact only Correa and Buxton clear that requisit.

But they do have 3 regulars that clear that number: Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Ryan Jeffers. 

Your overarching point is valid still. Hoping that those three can maintain and/or Polanco, Buxton, Correa turn it around, is a lot of hope.

“Still, based on track record, you can have some hope that Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Jorge Polanco will gravitate to that 120 OPS+ level,”

Polanco has a 111 career OPS+. Buxton 106. They’re 29 and apparently not fully healthy.

The Mets got to 90 wins and played a team with 92 wins in the first round…and played the 3rd place team in the NLC for the pennant (the Cubs when they were still the Cubs).

Could a bunch of veterans suddenly over perform? Could a bunch of rookies suddenly get it? Could the Twins do a once-in-a-decade tap dance through the AL playoffs?

Yes to all. Highly unlikely…and not something you should spend a legit prospect on. 
 

Meanwhile, winning the division doesn’t require anything beyond marginal improvement.

I see a lot of “but the 87 Twins” or “but the 91 Braves”….not just in this thread, but everywhere.

But, anything before the format change really isn’t analogous. Aside from the fact that you had to win one of only two divisions (more likely that you have at least one legit team to outpace)…but more importantly, you only had to win one series to get to the WS.

It’s now basically twice as hard to get to the WS…and that’s if you’re NOT the underdog. For the 2023 Twins, that’d be beating two teams back-to-back that are around 10 games better than you…actually probably more adjusted for strength of schedule. (The schedules are still unbalanced, just not as much as in past).

More recently, the Phillies won ‘only’ 87 games. But they played in a great division…38 games against 100-win teams in their own division. 87 was a strong number. 87 in the 2023 ALC, isn’t at all similar.

Agree that the 2015 Mets are probably as good an analogy as any. A once-in-a-decade occurrence, that relied on a lot of luck in term of match-ups. But they were 43-30 in the second half…even in a relatively week division, decent momentum.

So…I’d trade Gray, depending upon the get…it wouldn’t necessarily cost us this division. There’s about a zero chance that’s going to happen. So, I’ll live with keeping him and doing the QO (if he stays good/healthy). Just please don’t go nuts on rentals with anything more than lottery tickets. This is not the year. Twins should be focusing on the happy opportunity to compete for a division while simultaneously moving to a new core…or at least not further delaying that move.

Just win games

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Good things can happen to good people. Why not us?

I fear there’s an implied assumption here that may not hold up for all of ‘us’.

On behalf of THAT ‘us’, I’d like to say that we sincerely apologize. We didn’t realize the harmful impact we could have on the AL postseason (and…um…loved ones, or whatever). And if not for it being way too late to matter, we would do whatever we could to make it right.

9 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

And you call yourself a Twins fan?!
how did you pass the quiz in order to get your TD login credentials?

WOW! how did I make such a mistake! This is probally the biggest brain fart I've ever made! I meant '21

This 2019 mentality of lofting the ball & swinging for the fences has to go! 

Rocco said as much when he recently lamented that they just can't string hits together.  When will the players wake up and start tracking the pitch and barreling up line drives?? 

The starting pitching is definitely there.

The bullpen, when healthy, is solid, but Pagan & Sands have to go.

The hitters?? 2022 April & May, Buxton looked other worldly, since then injuries and swinging for the fences have turned him into Joey Gallo.

Correa should know better.

Polanco needs to get healthy.

That pins our hopes on Lewis, Kirrilof, Lanarch, Walner, Kepler doing what Solano is doing.

Our 3 utility players group of Solano, Farmer & Castro is one of the best in baseball. 

But that is what they are supposed to be.

It's the starters that Suck!

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

WOW! how did I make such a mistake! This is probally the biggest brain fart I've ever made! I meant '21

The 21 Braves are a good example. They were not buyers at the deadline. They did buy low on three veteran outfielders in Soler, Rosario and Duvall. Soler and Rosario were having particularly poor seasons. They get them they traded Pablo Sandoval, Alex Jackson (failed prospect out of options) and minor league reliever Kasey Kalich. They also added reliever Rich Rodriguez for Bryse Wilson who was also going to be out of options with a 5.88 ERA.

The Braves wisely identified two outfielders they could fix and turn around their seasons. It cost virtually nothing. In fact they received cash with Rosario in the Sandoval deal.

Can the Twins identify those buy low turn around candidates to acquire? It does seem like they have a few of those candidates already on the roster.

10 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Agree that the 2015 Mets are probably as good an analogy as any. A once-in-a-decade occurrence, that relied on a lot of luck in term of match-ups. But they were 43-30 in the second half…even in a relatively week division, decent momentum.

It's been almost a decade.....

Doc Gast, it was just a typo!  You know your Twins.  But it's reasonable to expect a good amount of teasing anyway!

Anytime a team can pitch like the Twins they have a chance.  Go look at the lineup the 1973 Mets had that made the World Series! They were starting an 80 year old Willie Mays in CF!!  There is no doubt that ONE bat will not "fix" the Twins moribund offense.  But guys like Bellinger and Pham would be "cheap" acquisitions.  Pham has that "Shannon Stewart" vibe and would be a half season rental.  Bellinger is appealing because of the Gold Glove defense in CF but would necessitate moving Gallo AND Kepler, as well as blocking opportunities for Larnach and Wallner (if Gallo and Kepler could be sent packing).   

And of course if Correa and Buxton could show some sort of improvement that would be huge.  

But there is a potential blockbuster deal that COULD transform the lineup and take a little pressure off everybody else that could enable improvement by other key contributors.  It all depends on the St. Louis Cardinals.  Are they willing to trade away key pieces in the hopes of a major reset for 2024?  Or would the fanbase of baseball's best city rebel over the reset?  Using BBTV's numbers.

Twins Get:   3B Nolan Arenado -11.6  32 y/o, 1B Paul Goldschmidt +21.1 value 35 y/o and cash to offset some of Arenado's cost.

Cards Get:  1B/3B Jose Miranda +8.9 value.  SP Louis Varland +10.3 value and RHP Josh Winder 5.8 value.  The money the Cards would send over would be significant in order to acquire players the value the Twins are sending.  Arenado's negative value enables a deal of this magnitude. 

The Twins would have Arenado through 2027.  They would have Goldy through 2024.  If the Pohlad's are willing to move the Twins budget up a bit from MLB middle of the pack the Twins could either extend Sonny Gray or sign a FA SP to go with a 2024 rotation that would include Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober.  Chris Paddock's health and performance after getting a look at him before the end of this season would also be in the mix.  But a lineup that would feature Goldy and Arenado would be significantly stronger.  Especially when you consider the defense they would provide and if the Twins could devise a lineup and defensive alignment that kept Lewis, Kirilloff and Julien as regular contributors...both for the remainder of this season, but for 2024 as well.  

9 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll let others keep looking at regular season performance and think it matters come playoff time.

But team-wise doesn’t 0 - 18 suggest to you that teams that are clearly weaker than the playoff opponent almost never win one series…let alone two?

Never once were the Twins on par with the opponent going in…way weaker…not really close, including 2019 where the substandard ALC allowed them to win 100+ games, while still somehow being 5 games under 500 against winning teams.

You don’t have to be dominant, you don’t even have to be as good…but you better be within shouting distance. This club can win the division, with or without help, IMO. But, I don’t see them being within shouting distance…even with a rental or two…of any of the prospective opponents.