What Will The Twins Do in Center Field?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Byron Buxton has been healthy and productive at DH. If he stays there, what could the Twins plan for centerfield in 2024 be?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Since Byron Buxton became the full-time DH for the Minnesota Twins at the beginning of the 2023 MLB season, he has played in 47 of the Twins' first 52 games, translating to him playing in 90% of games or a 146-game pace. The last time Buxton came close to playing 146 games was during the 2017 season when he played 140 games. The next highest number of games played by Buxton in a season was 92, which was last year and ended with Buxton needing arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. 

Buxton is nearly halfway to his games played total from last year, and we are only in late May. Through his first 47 games as full-time DH, Buxton has managed to hit .230/.332/.456 (.797) with  a wOBA of .344, which is outperforming his xwOBA of .322, and an OPS+ of 119. Buxton also has a wRC+ of 131, an fWAR of 1.2, and a team-leading Win Probability Added (WPA) of +1.50. 

To put Buxton's performance into perspective, through the first 50-or-so games of the season, Buxton, according to Fangraphs, ranks fifth in statistics for DH only behind MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez (Astros), second-year-breakout star Nolan Gorman (Cardinals), former Twin and surprise breakout player Brent Rooker (A’s), and the baseball prodigy himself Shohei Ohtani (Angels). 

Buxton is breaking out as an everyday DH and, more importantly, staying in the lineup with a relatively outstanding bill of health as evidenced by his ability to play in 90% of games so far this season. With the Twins being comfortable moving forward with Buxton being the full-time DH, the next step the Twins need to take is finding someone who can take over the role of full-time starting center fielder. 

Although Michael A. Taylor has handled center field for most of the season, it is still being determined whether Taylor, who will be a free agent this upcoming off-season, is in the Twins' intermediate-to-long-term plans at center field. With a looming sense of uncertainty around the position, I will explore three avenues the Twins could pursue while attempting to find a starting center field for 2024 and possibly beyond.

Option 1: Extend Michael A. Taylor
The first avenue the Twins could go down when finding a starting center fielder for 2024 is through extending current starting center fielder Michael A. Taylor. Through the first 52 games of the season, Taylor has played in 47, putting him at a 146-game pace, just like Buxton. Through those first 47 games, Taylor has generated a 0.6 fWAR, which ranks 29th amongst qualified center fielders. 

On the defensive side, Taylor has been superb. He has generated an Expected Catch Percentage of 90% and an Actual Catch Percentage of 92%, which generates a Catch Percentage Added (%) or an Outs Above Average (OAA) of 2. With an OAA of 2, Taylor is ranked 19th out of 92 qualified outfielders and is the highest-ranked Twin, with Nick Gordon being second at 45th with an OAA of 0. 

Although Taylor has been above average defensively, his offensive numbers are cause for concern. Taylor has put up a slash line of just .218/.265/.395 (.660) with an OPS+ of 82 and a wRC+ of 82, all below league average. Taylor's Baseball Savant page numbers confirm his early-season struggles. 

As illustrated in the chart above, Taylor ranks towards the bottom of Major League Baseball in xwOBA, xBA, and BB%. The most concerning aspect of Taylor's performance at the plate this year is his strikeout rate. Taylor ranks towards the bottom of the league in Chase Rate, Whiff%, and K%. These numbers are exemplified in Eno Sarris' most recent piece in The Athletic, where he illustrates that Taylor is currently ranked second in the MLB, only behind Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu, with a K% increase of 9.4%. 

Like most of the Twins lineup, Taylor is struggling, but Taylor's struggles are especially alarming. However, a silver lining, as illustrated in the chart above, is that Taylor ranks towards the top of the league in Barrel% and Max Exit Velocity. If Taylor can find a way to lower his strikeout rate, he should become a more productive offensive player, as evidenced by the fact that when he hits the ball, he hits it hard and on the barrel of the bat.

Taylor, who is 32 years old, signed a two-year/$9 million contract with the Royals in 2021, and is making $4.5 million to play for the Twins this year. I could see an extension with the Twins looking nearly identical, with the only difference being that the second year of the extension is a team option or vesting option, instead of it being fully guaranteed like it was when he signed with the Royals in 2021. 

Option 2: Test the trade or free-agent market
The third avenue the Twins could go down this upcoming off-season is the one they took this past off-season when they went outside the organization for a starting center fielder. When the Twins traded minor-league relievers Steven Cruz and Evan Sisk to the Royals for Taylor in January, many in the organization still believed that Buxton would start a majority of games at center fielder as long as he was healthy, and Taylor would take on the role as the Twins fourth outfielder behind Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, and Buxton. This off-season, the Twins could be more aggressive. 

This offseason, there may be four desirable center field free agent options. Cody Bellinger can opt out of his mutual option with the Chicago Cubs. Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, and, if the Twins don't end up extending him, Michael A. Taylor, are the others. 

Bellinger, Kiermaier, and Bader all appear to be more appealing options than the soon-to-be 33-year-old Taylor, but they will likely carry heavier price tags. This year, Bellinger is making $12.5 million (with the potential for a $5 million buyout if he decides to leave the Cubs), Kiermaier is making $9 million with the Blue Jays, and Bader is making $5.2 million with the Yankees. If Bellinger continues to perform well with the Cubs, the former NL MVP is expected to sign a multi-year contract worth north of $20 million a year. If Bader performs well, he is expected to get a pay raise, and it is fair to assume that Kiermaier will once again sign a deal within the $9 million range this upcoming off-season. 

Although Bellinger, Bader, and Kiermaier are possibly better options than Taylor, I find it improbable that the Twins will want to invest over $10 million a year into a starting center fielder. Not because the Pohlads are cheap or any tropes like that, but because Falvey and the current Twins regime likely feel they could get similar production from potentially Taylor and younger internal options at a much lower price.

The Twins could also go down the following route: trading for a starting center fielder. This route feels more likely than the Twins signing Bellinger, Bader, or Kiermaier, and that is because this front office tends to favor trading for veteran players over signing them. 

Some starting center field options the Twins could trade for include Mike Yastrzemski, Trent Grisham, Lars Nootbaar , Manuel Margot, Victor Robles, and, if they want to swing big, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Although some of these options are more enticing than others, the more realistic options are likely Yastrzemski and Grisham. If the Twins did pursue Yastrzemski or Grisham, it could be considered redundant, as the Twins already have so many left-handed outfield options in Max Kepler (if they exercise his option), Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, and potentially Joey Gallo under team control for 2024. Besides Nick Gordon, who was platooning with Taylor earlier this season before fracturing his tibia, none of these outfield options play center fielder, but adding another left-handed outfielder to an already packed left-handed hitting outfield could be considered redundant by the Twins front office. If the Twins decide to give Martin more of a role, as I suggested in option #2, trading for a left-handed bat, such as Yastrzemski or Grisham, would make more sense as the two would take on platoon roles. 

Option 3: Royce Lewis?
Ideally, Twins fans would love to witness a seamless transition of Buxton handing over center-field duties to 2017 first-overall pick Royce Lewis, but it, unfortunately, won’t be that simple. On May 29th of last year, Lewis tore his ACL for the second time in two years while making an incredible catch in which he collided with the outfield wall while playing center field.

During Lewis’ rehab, there has been an inkling from those plugged in with the Twins that playing center field is not an option for Lewis, at least when he first returns. With Jose Miranda getting demoted earlier this year and Kyle Farmer having more value as a infield utility player, Lewis will transition into playing almost exclusively at third base once he returns from the 60-day IL. Also, even though Carlos Correa played against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 27th after being diagnosed with plantar fasciitis just days before, it is reasonable to assume that Lewis could spend time at shortstop to give Correa some days off to rest his ailing left heel and foot. 

If Lewis can stay healthy for the rest of the 2023 season while playing third base and shortstop, the door for adding center field into his defensive repertoire could open again. If that door opened and Lewis was comfortable with playing center field, then Lewis taking over fulltime in center field seems logical, of perhaps splitting time with a healthy Nick Gordon and potentially the recently surging Willi Castro.

Which of these options intrigues you the most? Are there any options or players that I didn't list that you think would make sense as the starting center fielder for 2024? Comment below with your answers.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Buxton playing defense and offense and not getting hurt would be the best case scenario for all concerned. However. Buck playing CF obviously increases his chances of getting hurt. To quote that great philosopher, Newman the postman, "Quite the conundrum."

[wsnydes]

Ideally, Buxton is the guy roaming CF.  But if not him, my vote would be Lewis.  The Twins have the luxury of having a guy that could play SS and CF plus another guy that looks like he could stick at SS too.  That doesn't even account for the guy currently residing at SS that's here for a while longer.  

[A_Null_Entry]

Best moment of the game Monday vs. the Astros was Bremmer saying/realizing for Buxton to pinch run in the 9th, he would have to play the field.  What a scary proposition for him to have to play in the field for an inning or 2.

[mikelink45]

Buxton only play half the game - DH, not defense means to me he should only get credit for 1/2 game each time he plays.  I know that is unpopular, but look at the total package.  Taylor and Buxton - one can't hit, one isn't playing defense but that is two players for one position and the options for lineup are substantially weakened.  

[Vanimal46]

We all know the correct answer… The lengths we have gone to keep Buxton off the field for even a single inning is absurd. 

[Possumlad]

Even if we assume he's much more likely to miss time playing in CF, Buck's more valuable to the Twins playing 70-90 games in CF than he is playing 140 @ DH.

Buck @ DH means Taylor's (or a Taylor-equivelent's) bat in the line-up. 140 games of guaranteed below average production from one of your line-up spots is not worth the reduced injury risk to Buxton. The math just doesn't work out. Buck's not a good offensive player to be hidden at DH the way he is.

Play him in CF at least 2-3 games a week, with a match-up based platoon at DH. DH him in another 1-2 w/ Taylor in Center. Worst-case scenario, Buck gets hurt. In that case, you're back to Taylor in CF and a platoon at DH. 

But in the games he plays, you get Taylor-level defense in Center without the corresponding hole in the line-up. Buck's worth what he is because he plays a premium defensive position. As with Mauer's move from C to 1B, he loses a ton of value once he's out of CF.

 

[farmerguychris]

I would bet the Twins are hoping Celestino is ready to take over CF next season.

[pierre75275]

Nice, well thought out article.

If Buxton is simply not an option, I would love to see Celistino (sp?) step up offensively. He may have another gear there, and is second time seeing AAA pitching he put up some nice numbers, maybe that could happen at the major leagues with a second prolonged look

🤷

[gman]

The Twins need to plan on having another player next year who can hit, field and hopefully stay healthy. I hope Martin gets back on the field soon and can be that player. Although again, that's a player with some health issues. Maybe ERod at the end of next year or 2025. Or as a reach maybe start playing Jose Salas in center some this year, although his 150 average doesn't look too promising. He does seem to have the speed to play out there.

[nicksaviking]

I don't like the idea that CF is too dangerous of a position for the team's best offensive players. I don't want this organization to just put Michael Taylor types out there because they're offensively expendable. Building a formidable lineup includes having a centerfielder who can hit. Will we ever be able to have a top bat play CF? Or is it just Buxton and Lewis?

[Marcos]

Lewis must STAY far away from CF. I don’t want to see his ridiculous talent on the IL again from banging into walls. Let’s be grateful he can play both SS and 3rd. Also, 4th option. I think it’s quite possible we have future CF in either Jenkins or Clark.

[wsnydes]

6 minutes ago, Marcos said:

Lewis must STAY far away from CF. I don’t want to see his ridiculous talent on the IL again from banging into walls. Let’s be grateful he can play both SS and 3rd. Also, 4th option. I think it’s quite possible we have future CF in either Jenkins or Clark.

Lewis can get hurt just as easily at SS or 3B.  There are walls to deal with around the infield too.  Plus other infielders, baserunners, dugouts and tarps.  I don't see how the infield is any safer.

[Verified Member]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Buxton only play half the game - DH, not defense means to me he should only get credit for 1/2 game each time he plays.  I know that is unpopular, but look at the total package.  Taylor and Buxton - one can't hit, one isn't playing defense but that is two players for one position and the options for lineup are substantially weakened.  

I will agree with you on this only if you hold all other DHs to this standard. Personally, I think the days of Buxton playing CF for anything other than an inning or two are over.

[Chris Spencer]

DHing Buxton full time seems like the kind of overly safe move a middle tier team that does not expect to win a championship makes. You have the best center fielder in baseball. Let him play center. DH him against lefties and get another right handed bat in the lineup and rest. Otherwise they could get another good bat in the lineup by letting him play center. 

[mikelink45]

14 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

I will agree with you on this only if you hold all other DHs to this standard. Personally, I think the days of Buxton playing CF for anything other than an inning or two are over.

I have been against the DH in the HOF since the beginning. Just as I am reluctant to put in RP.  That standard is easy for me to support. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Buxton playing defense and offense and not getting hurt would be the best case scenario for all concerned. However. Buck playing CF obviously increases his chances of getting hurt. To quote that great philosopher, Newman the postman, "Quite the conundrum."

I agree that Buxton playing CF and being able to stay in the lineup would be the best case scenario, but it sadly has only happened once and that was roughly six years ago when he, as I noted in my article, played 140 games in 2017. I think we need to start getting used to seeing Buxton as the DH for the rest of this season and seasons to come whether we like it or not.

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, wsnydes said:

Ideally, Buxton is the guy roaming CF.  But if not him, my vote would be Lewis.  The Twins have the luxury of having a guy that could play SS and CF plus another guy that looks like he could stick at SS too.  That doesn't even account for the guy currently residing at SS that's here for a while longer.  

In an ideal world, I would pick Lewis as Buxton's long term replacement in CF as well. Unfortunately, I think with Lewis tearing his ACL at Target Field last year, he, and his agent Scott Boras, would prefer if he stayed at a defensive position that he was more familiar with like SS, 3B, or 2B. Hypothetically, I would love if in 2026 the Twins were able to trot out Lewis at CF, Correa at 3B, Brooks Lee at 2B, and say, Jacob Gonzalez from Ole Miss, who the Twins are reportedly interested in with the #5 pick in this year's draft, at SS, but I don't see Lewis wanting to take over at CF full time, at least not in the near future. Only time will tell. 

[wsnydes]

3 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

In an ideal world, I would pick Lewis as Buxton's long term replacement in CF as well. Unfortunately, I think with Lewis tearing his ACL at Target Field last year, he, and his agent Scott Boras, would prefer if he stayed at a defensive position that he was more familiar with like SS, 3B, or 2B. Hypothetically, I would love if in 2026 the Twins were able to trot out Lewis at CF, Correa at 3B, Brooks Lee at 2B, and say, Jacob Gonzalez from Ole Miss, who the Twins are reportedly interested in with the #5 pick in this year's draft, at SS, but I don't see Lewis wanting to take over at CF full time, at least not in the near future. Only time will tell. 

Valid points.  I just don't see the infield being any safer, whether he's more comfortable with it or not.  He's athletic enough to learn a position and that versatility is a selling point for Boras.  You may be right in the end, but in my view, I don't really see it mattering much.  Regardless, it's a good talker and a good problem to have.

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

I would bet the Twins are hoping Celestino is ready to take over CF next season.

I forgot to mention Celestino in my piece, so I thank you for bringing him up. I don't think the Twins see Celestino as an every-day center field option. Once Celestino is able to return from this year the UCL tear he suffered in his thumb during the beginning of Spring Training, I think he will initially slot in as the starting center fielder for the Triple-A St. Paul Saints. If a healthy Celestino is able to add more consistent power as well as the ability to drive the ball to left field more, which is an odd request to have for a right-handed hitter, I do think he could eventually join the mix and compete for a platoon role in CF with players such as Nick Gordon and Willi Castro, but for now I think the Twins and Celestino want him to heal from his injury and perform well in Triple-A before anyone begins to think about his potential role with the Twins at the Major League level. 

[OvertheHill]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

I would bet the Twins are hoping Celestino is ready to take over CF next season.

Hoping maybe but not relying. Fair or not, he was rushed to majors and now a big part of his 2023 at AAA seems wiped out. I don't see a scenario where he's in position to take over CF in 2024.

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, Marcos said:

Lewis must STAY far away from CF. I don’t want to see his ridiculous talent on the IL again from banging into walls. Let’s be grateful he can play both SS and 3rd. Also, 4th option. I think it’s quite possible we have future CF in either Jenkins or Clark.

Personally, I too would welcome the idea of Max Clark or Walker Jenkins as being the future center fielder of the Minnesota Twins, but I don't see that happening. As noted in Keith Law's recent The Athletic piece, the Twins front office is reluctant to the idea of drafting a high schooler, which is interesting since their first ever selection as a regime was Royce Lewis, who was drafted first overall out of JSerra Catholic High School in San Juan Capistrano, California. Whether it be the selection of Keoni Cavaco putting a sour taste in their mouth or the want to draft someone out of high school who can contribute for the Twins sooner than a high school player could (which is what I personally think is their thought process), I don't see the Twins drafting either Clark or Jenkins in this year's draft. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Option 1: Buxton. No chance.

Option 2: Taylor.  Ugh. Should be better options

Option 3: FA.  Ok, but only if a big upgrade over internal options.  Trade Buxton to help pay for it.

Option 4: Lewis. Best choice if we want to maximize our lineup in 2024 (and beyond), particularly if we keep Buxton as DH.  Lee at 3B, Correa at SS, Julien at 2B, Kiriloff at 1B, Lewis in CF, Wallner in RF, Larnach in LF. This lineup gets our best players in the field/ABs and cheaply too.  Miranda, Gordon, Farmer on the bench.

Option 5: Other internal options. Celestino? Gordon?, someone else?  Not exciting enough - offensively or defensively - for such a key position.

Option 4 is best.

[davidborton]

2 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I would bet the Twins are hoping Celestino is ready to take over CF next season.

Buxton? Had the knee scoped in September. Twins have never said if it was medial or lateral. He is 8 mos out and the Twins are holding him back. I firmly believe the Twins are fibbing a bit and we will never see Buxton in CF again. After scoping, a second scope or knee replacement is all there is. He might get scoped again Sept/Oct? (I only play doctor on forums based on my own knee drama).

Keep Lewis at 3rd. Don't screw around with someone who has had ACL fixed twice. 

Spend the dime and get a CF.

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, gman said:

The Twins need to plan on having another player next year who can hit, field and hopefully stay healthy. I hope Martin gets back on the field soon and can be that player. Although again, that's a player with some health issues. Maybe ERod at the end of next year or 2025. Or as a reach maybe start playing Jose Salas in center some this year, although his 150 average doesn't look too promising. He does seem to have the speed to play out there.

If Austin Martin is able to recover from the UCL sprain in his right elbow that he sustained during Spring Training this year, I hope that he is able to show glimpses of the player he was at Vanderbilt that led to him being drafted 5th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2020 MLB draft. If Martin is able to mix his plus contact and on-base tools with some element of power, I think he could play a key role for the Twins in 2024 and potentially become a mainstay in centerfield, which I personally think is his best defensive position. Sadly, this is all wishful thinking for now and we won't know what Martin is until he can get healthy and start playing once again. 

Personally, I don't think Salas profiles as a CF, and I think ERod profiles better as a corner outfielder, but either way these two players, as you noted, aren't going to options for the 2024 Twins. Nonetheless, they are still fun to think about.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Ideally, as everyone has said, Buxton would be playing CF almost every day and the question would be answered for at least the next few years.  Barring that happening, I would like to see them sign one of the better free agents to play CF.  Free agents only cost money, not prospects.  A fall back for me would be to get Austin Martin back on the field ASAP and have him become a CF.  He's athletic enough and if he can get hit anywhere near how he did in the AFL, the problem could be solved. 

It cannot be said enough that Buxton at DH is not a good play overall for the team.  Yes, he might be a top 5 DH.  However, that combines with a #29 CF, offensively speaking.  A young player like Julian, Wallner, or Larnach (assuming all are healthy) would likely be a top 10 or 15 DH, which when combined with a CF Buxton who would likely still be top 5 in CF, is a much better overall result.  CF is a position that Buxton has played all of his life. He may now have old man bad knees, but he would certainly still be able to play at a good level (maybe not gold glove, but still solid).  He is a player that needs to learn to play the position within reasonable parameters and not like superman.  The results would be just fine and the team would benefit. It's called maturity.

[shabbos1]

Buxton in CF is obviously ideal, but I don't think he'll play a single game there this season.  If he can't leg out ground balls or aggressively go from first to third without almost landing on the IL, there's just no way he survives any kind of action roaming CF.

[Eris]

The problem for the Twins becomes one of value. Buxton accumulated 4 fWAR last year. Prorated to 162 games, at his current rate, Buxton will not match last years WAR (because DH is assigned a negative defensive value). 
 

I don’t really understand the logic behind not having Buxton in CF. First, he injured his knee sliding into second last year. Second, Buxton is a difference maker playing CF.  The best solution would seem to be to train Buxton not to crash into outfield walls with his team up by 8 runs. 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, wsnydes said:

Lewis can get hurt just as easily at SS or 3B.  There are walls to deal with around the infield too.  Plus other infielders, baserunners, dugouts and tarps.  I don't see how the infield is any safer.

Seems to me infielders get hurt on defense way more often than outfielders.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I’m hoping for Austin Martin so we can also get somebody with contact skills and a tablesetter  in the lineup.  No more 3 outcome players.