What Will The Twins Do in Center Field?

[wsnydes]

30 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Seems to me infielders get hurt on defense way more often than outfielders.

Exactly.  I get that he's more familiar with the infield, but that's hardly a safer place to play defense in my mind.  So much more going on around you.

[chpettit19]

Option 1: Buxton's knees aren't toast, and he can get back to CF in some amount this year, and more next year. I'm starting to think this isn't a real option anymore. It feels like Buxton's knees are shot, and he simply will never be able to hold up to the wear and tear of playing CF anymore. Absolutely a disastrous outcome for everyone involved, including the team who want him in CF more than any of us and would put him there if they thought he could do it.

Option 2: MAT. No thank you.

Option 3: Free Agents/Trades. Not a lot of great options in the open market, but maybe there's a trade that can be found? I can't imagine it'd be cheap to trade for a really good CFer, though. It's what made Buxton so valuable as a plus defender and hitter there.

Option 4: Royce. I've been on this bandwagon since last year, and it's still my preferred move. They have much more depth at 3B (and 2B) than they do in CF. Royce was tremendous in CF in the AFL, and his very brief Twins stint. Even the play he got hurt on showed how good he can be out there. I think this solves a lot of their immediate needs, and I'd have him start taking flyballs out there and have him ready to transition in the 2nd half of this year.

Option 5: Other prospects. I'm not a Celestino believer. So he's nowhere near the top of my list of options. I think ERod is a corner guy, and needs to do a lot before I count on him to even make the majors at this point. Any of the top 4 hitters in the draft feel like they may be an option, but the HS kids would be years away, and Langford doesn't look like he tracks the ball well enough to play CF. Austin Martin may be the best non-Lewis youngster option. I haven't seen any update on him lately, but hopefully they get this elbow thing figured out, and he can come back and look like he did in the AFL. I don't know if they'd use him out there everyday, but he could be the main CFer as part of his likely utility role.

[Cody Schoenmann]

38 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Seems to me infielders get hurt on defense way more often than outfielders.

I'm not sure what the empirical evidence suggests, but based off my own perception I would agree that it seems that infielders get injured more often than outfielders. As it pertains to Lewis' case in specific, I feel as if the preference to play infield, and more specifically 3B and SS, is based off of his familiarity and comfort with the positions rather than doing what is best as it pertains to which positions are best to play when trying to avoid injury. It could be true that centerfielders experience less injuries while playing the field compared to shortstops and third baseman, but if Lewis is nervous and reluctant about playing CF and has vocalized that reluctancy with the Twins and his agent Scott Boras, then there is really nothing the Twins can do. Having a healthy Lewis playing a near-every-day-role for the Twins is something the Twins organization and fans alike should be grateful for no matter what position he is playing out in the field. 

[IndianaTwin]

This seems like a premature conversation. Come October, the front office will know more about…

1. Whether Buxton’s knee held up at DH. 

2. Whether there’s any likelihood of his returning to CF. 

3. Whether/how Lewis has handled several months of full-time play. And whether they want to consider him in CF. 

4. Where Miranda’s bat (and defense) have gone, and whether they are ready to plan on him as a full-timer. 

5. Whether Lee has pushed himself into needing to find playing time in the infield. 

6. The progress of Celestino. 

7. How they like Taylor, though it seems really unlikely they’d resign him.

And a bunch of things I haven’t thought of, but this is at least a starting point. Until October, these discussions feel like vanity, a chasing after the wind,

[weitz41]

Assuming 2024 is another fulltime DH season for Buxton.

I'm guessing 2024 will see Celestino in CF in MAT place. With Gordon and Celestino switching in and out depending on matchups. Maybe Martin could be in the mix if he makes it to AAA this year.

The whole outfield could be new/different starting player's next season. I don't expect the FO to spend much if anything on CF. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Option 1: Buxton's knees aren't toast, and he can get back to CF in some amount this year, and more next year. I'm starting to think this isn't a real option anymore. It feels like Buxton's knees are shot, and he simply will never be able to hold up to the wear and tear of playing CF anymore. Absolutely a disastrous outcome for everyone involved, including the team who want him in CF more than any of us and would put him there if they thought he could do it.

Option 2: MAT. No thank you.

Option 3: Free Agents/Trades. Not a lot of great options in the open market, but maybe there's a trade that can be found? I can't imagine it'd be cheap to trade for a really good CFer, though. It's what made Buxton so valuable as a plus defender and hitter there.

Option 4: Royce. I've been on this bandwagon since last year, and it's still my preferred move. They have much more depth at 3B (and 2B) than they do in CF. Royce was tremendous in CF in the AFL, and his very brief Twins stint. Even the play he got hurt on showed how good he can be out there. I think this solves a lot of their immediate needs, and I'd have him start taking flyballs out there and have him ready to transition in the 2nd half of this year.

Option 5: Other prospects. I'm not a Celestino believer. So he's nowhere near the top of my list of options. I think ERod is a corner guy, and needs to do a lot before I count on him to even make the majors at this point. Any of the top 4 hitters in the draft feel like they may be an option, but the HS kids would be years away, and Langford doesn't look like he tracks the ball well enough to play CF. Austin Martin may be the best non-Lewis youngster option. I haven't seen any update on him lately, but hopefully they get this elbow thing figured out, and he can come back and look like he did in the AFL. I don't know if they'd use him out there everyday, but he could be the main CFer as part of his likely utility role.

I like your idea of having Martin play centerfield while being a super utility player. Also, when it comes to trade options, I think my number one choice would be Mike Yastrzemski from the Giants, but, as I noted in my article, the Twins might see trading for a left-handed outfielder as redundant considering they will likely have Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, and, if he signs another contract with the Twins, Joey Gallo as left-handed hitting outfield options for next year. Now, only Gordon and Gallo are seen as feasible centerfielders, but I think the point still stands. Personally, if the Twins were to go down the free agent or trade route in acquiring a starting centerfielder for 2024, I think my number one choice would be Cody Bellinger. He is performing at an all-star level for the Cubs at the moment, and if he keeps performing well, I think he will get $20+ million a year, which is a price tag I don't think the Twins would be willing to pay. As I stated in my article, I don't think the Twins wouldn't pursue Bellinger at a $20+ million/year price because the Pohlad family is cheap or any trope like that, but rather because the Twins would likely allocate those fund elsewhere as they feel that they could find similar production to what Bellinger could provide through more affordable internal and external options. 

[Eris]

Dugas et al.⁴⁴ reviewed baseball players who had undergone surgical ACL reconstruction across all levels of competitive play, finding a majority of ACL tears to occur during fielding (68%), or base running (29%), with outfielders at the greatest positional risk. 
From. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20503121221076369#:~:text=Dugas et al.&text=reviewed baseball players who had,at the greatest positional risk.

Several notes  study mentions that there are a limited number of ACL tears in baseball, which may have an affect on data analysis.  Players with ACL reconstruction play on average 20% less than non injured equivalent  

Also, the FDA approved in 2021 a new procedure for ACL repair. Google “BEAR ACL repair” and you will plenty of information.  

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Would there be less risk if we played Buxton in LF? IF so, who wins and loses in that scenario? it would open up the DH spot which might allow us to get more ABs out of Polanco, and keep Julien, Wallner  or Larnach on the roster and give them 4 days a week in the lineup. It means Gallo plays RF and Kepler sits, with MAT and Castro playing in CF. Kepler loses out but he isn't hitting and hasn't hit since 2019.  Something that should be considered?

[MGM4706]

Not sure about next year but RIGHT NOW but Kepler in CF. Taylor is automatic out. Bring Wallner back for RF (8 Straight on base) and send Julien down and put Farmer or Lewis at 2nd. That gets all the bats and some new blood into the lineup.

[MABB1959]

Just asking….could the Twins get anything for Buxton?  Would another team take him and let him play?  The article says he has been productive.   To me his simple stats look bad.   He seems limited in running and stealing bases.  His average looks sad.  Should he have more HR’s and RBI’s as a DH?   His salary/contract seem to call for greatness.   Love him but very torn/perplexed.  

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

Just asking….could the Twins get anything for Buxton?  Would another team take him and let him play?  The article says he has been productive.   To me his simple stats look bad.   He seems limited in running and stealing bases.  His average looks sad.  Should he have more HR’s and RBI’s as a DH?   His salary/contract seem to call for greatness.   Love him but very torn/perplexed.  

This is the current version of Byron Buxton. He's going to have these slumps and he's going to hit a lot of homers in a short time. I think he could be more and better, but this is what we're getting for what he got in his contract. 

I don't think he'll play in the outfield until he insists and I don't know if he'll insist. I don't think any of us fans know exactly how bad his knee is. 

[tony&rodney]

Celestino.

[Aerodeliria]

I don't understand the question...

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, Eris said:

The problem for the Twins becomes one of value. Buxton accumulated 4 fWAR last year. Prorated to 162 games, at his current rate, Buxton will not match last years WAR (because DH is assigned a negative defensive value). 
 

I don’t really understand the logic behind not having Buxton in CF. First, he injured his knee sliding into second last year. Second, Buxton is a difference maker playing CF.  The best solution would seem to be to train Buxton not to crash into outfield walls with his team up by 8 runs. 

I wish someone would have thought to tell him not to run into walls years ago.  Sorry-too easy.

I can summarize all this discussion with the following statement.  If MAT had an OPS that was about 100-150 points higher our problems would be solved.  No?  I think that would be a fantastic outcome.  The problem is that player is a unicorn, like a Buxton-but healthy.  I just spent some time sorting through various leaders in center field and it would be a good exercise for everyone in the thread.  Some Trouts and J-Rods, lotta Ruiz and MAT.  Sorry.

That said, Lewis may be the best option we have to maximize the roster.  I do believe that much of the Lewis to center field talk and action was based on Miranda locking down 3rd base.  Where do we play all these studs?  I've shifted to Miranda in the outfield and Lewis at 3rd just to maximize the value of Royce.  He doesn't need fooled with at this point in his career.  Having little or no minor league experience means he will be doing a ton of adjustments with the big club.  Lets not add to the curve with defensive changes too. 

I wouldn't mind if they made the change in the off-season.  Give him time to adjust and make it permanent.  I don't think anyone will play him off 3rd base though.  Miranda would have to come around hard plus Lee and Julien pressing.  It would signal the end of Buxton in the outfield sadly.

[twinstalker]

13 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I would bet the Twins are hoping Celestino is ready to take over CF next season.

This should have been the case.  He needs to put it all together this year, and I think he was on the right track prior to the Twins getting all needy with him and all.  But sometimes it just doesn't work out for a guy the way it should, and he seems a candidate for that.  2023 is his prep year, and he's hurt the first half at least.  Whether he's the solution or not, I don't see the Twins counting on him, and they'll likely bring another in.

BTW, you can say Buxton is the fifth best DH right now, but his stock is almost nil in the simulation leagues I play in where defense is just about as important as in MLB.  Owners won't be able to play him in CF next year,  Nobody sees all that much value in him as their DH relative to alternative.  So we can talk him up all we want, but this is a really bad situation for the Twins.

[William K Johnson]

Is there anyone who thinks Buxton's role as a DH has been successful?   Put him in CF where he is an asset to the team which would also allow the Twins to use a real DH, like Solano.   Essentially replacing Taylor's bat in the lineup with Solano's, a huge upgrade.

[nclahammer]

To say Buxton has been productive at DH, is setting the bar pretty low for that spot.  He needs to be in centerfield...period.   His defense is what excels him into an elite category...remember when he was  a platinum defender?   He needs to be in the CF mix, playing at least 2-3 times per week, where his defense can make a difference because it certainly isn't happening much offensively.

[Doctor Wu]

Like most everyone here, in an ideal/healthy world, we'd have Buxton back in CF full-time. As far the DH role, I appreciate the deep dive the article did on the stats. To my eye test, Buxton has been less than stellar at DH, striking out too much and/or hitting into double plays. The second coming of Nelson Cruz he is not. All that said, I sure wish he would use his world-class speed at lot more. We've seen him running the bases, and in the past in the field. Why can't he bunt for a few hits? Or steal more bases? With speed like he has, it can be VERY disruptive to the opposing team. But hey, if he still IS having knees issues, I understand the reluctance not to go sliding into bases (albeit bigger ones this year!).

[big dog]

15 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

I agree that Buxton playing CF and being able to stay in the lineup would be the best case scenario, but it sadly has only happened once and that was roughly six years ago when he, as I noted in my article, played 140 games in 2017. I think we need to start getting used to seeing Buxton as the DH for the rest of this season and seasons to come whether we like it or not.

In 2022, Buxton hit better as a CF than as a DH, but was still very good as DH- OPS .829, wRC+ 138.

His OPS in April this year was .864. wRC+ was 139, like last year when he was somewhat healthy early in the year.

In May, Buxton's line is .179/,324/.645. wRC+ this month is 87.

He's apparently hurting more, and right now he's nowhere near the DH you are claiming.

If he can't play CF, we need to replace him at both positions until he's better.

[umterp23]

Buxton is breaking out as an everyday DH and, more importantly, staying in the lineup with a relatively outstanding bill of health as evidenced by his ability to play in 90% of games so far this season.

One of the funniest parts of the article, comparing Buxton to full time DH's and saying he is breaking out!  Breaking out the K stick is more like it.  FO didn't sign him long term to be a full time DH. He has better chance of getting hurt at DH as he does playing in the field.  Playing in the field, running, throwing the ball and mentally staying in the game keeps your body loose and muscles engaged.  Walking to the plate and 45 seconds later coming back to dugout is not influencing the game.  On pace for 90% of the games this year is so false of a statistically measure of his importance.  

4 at bats that may last 5 minutes if he never touches first base and 150 minute ballgame and he influences the game 0.0333% of his appearances.  Game changer of a player, absolutely not day in and day out.  He is doing his best Sano impersonation.  So let's say he rips a double down the line in his last at bat of the game after sitting the bench for 2 hours, good chance he can pull a hammy and break a finger with his ugly sliding techniques.  DH is tougher than playing the field due to lack of concentration by watching the game vs playing a full game.  

90% pace is a kids participation trophy at best

[PopRiveter]

The Twins OPS at DH ranks 8th of 15 teams in the AL. Exactly middle of the pack.

The Twins OPS at CF ranks 14th of 15 teams. Thank God for KC.

If Buxton is hobbled, this might be the best compromise, but if it is a strategy, it is failing. 

When he’s limited to DH, he’s a moderately valuable asset-similar to a Joey Gallo. What a shame it will be if that’s his career going forward.

[Doctor Gast]

15 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I’m hoping for Austin Martin so we can also get somebody with contact skills and a tablesetter  in the lineup.  No more 3 outcome players.

Bingo! Martin should be our #1 option of backing up Buxton. They wasted all last season playing him at SS & tinkering with his swing. He could be our best lead off hitter at least against LHPs. Of course the best solution is having Buxton there now.

Until last year Cave was our choice & everybody thought he was great. Taylor, Gordon, Celestino, Martin are a far cry better choice than Cave. So we are in a far better situation than years past.

I'd say Lewis would be our best solution at CF before his ACL issues, now he shouldn't be even considered as an option. And he shouldn't even need to be with our other inhouse options.

[wabene]

After scanning the medical paper @Eris linked, it says 5% of all surgeries for injured baseball players are knee surgeries. That is all knee surgeries not just the ACL. It does state that knee injuries are more common for outfielders, but I couldn't find any stats on that. The paper categorized knee injuries as relatively rare in baseball it being a non-contact sport.

After mulling this over, it doesn't seem to matter whether Lewis plays infield or outfield. I do think if he is more comfortable in the infield, then I would leave him there for now as he makes his way back post surgery. As suggested above, later this year he should start getting practice reps in the outfield for future positional flexibility. Then later this year as things play out with Buxton, Celestino, MAT and Martin, you chart your coarse forward.

Any athlete in any sport has to learn how to protect themselves during play. Some are better than others. Lewis still can get there and be healthy going forward. The big question is, is it too late for Buxton? Has he already done too much damage earlier in his career? 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

17 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

In an ideal world, I would pick Lewis as Buxton's long term replacement in CF as well. Unfortunately, I think with Lewis tearing his ACL at Target Field last year, he, and his agent Scott Boras, would prefer if he stayed at a defensive position that he was more familiar with like SS, 3B, or 2B. Hypothetically, I would love if in 2026 the Twins were able to trot out Lewis at CF, Correa at 3B, Brooks Lee at 2B, and say, Jacob Gonzalez from Ole Miss, who the Twins are reportedly interested in with the #5 pick in this year's draft, at SS, but I don't see Lewis wanting to take over at CF full time, at least not in the near future. Only time will tell. 

In an ideal world the Twins would draft Paul Skenes, who probably will not be available when the number five draft pick is ready to be made. I'd rather have Lewis at SS, Correa at 3B, Lee at 2B and Willie Mays in CF. I know Mays is 92, but he was so good when he was playing CF. 

[TopGunn#22]

Amen to that tarheeltwinsfan!!!  I liked the idea of a trade with the A's for Estury Ruiz.  Have no idea what the cost would be but maybe I'll go on BBTV's and see what it would take.  Unfortunately, I'm getting more and more pessimistic that Buxton is ever going to be a factor in CF going forward.  

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I would bet the Twins are hoping Celestino is ready to take over CF next season.

That’s never happening.

[JD-TWINS]

Taylor was never intended to start more than 50 games in ‘23. 35-40 of them v. LH pitching & then plugging some holes another 10-15 starts. Pinch hitter - pinch runner - late inning Defense.

Polanco was hurt - Gordon had to play 2B for most of a month. He had a terrible start but was coming around & starting many games in CF v. RH starters.

’24 Outfield:

Larnach - Gordon - Walner v. RH pitching

Castro - Taylor - Kirilloff v. LH pitching

’24 Infield:

Lewis - CC - Polanco - Kirilloff v. RH pitching

Lewis - CC - Lee - Farmer v. LH pitching 

Buxton primarily at DH

Catchers: Vazquez & Jeffers

 

 

[TopGunn#22]

BBTV's puts Estury Ruiz's value at 16.6.  He's 24 years old.  It puts Larnach's value at 18.4.  Larnach is 26 years old.  I'd make it a one-for-one swap.  Larnach is a corner OF'er with power and RBI potential.  He's expendable due to the glut of LH hitting corner OF'ers we have.  Ruiz gives the Twins a CF'er with speed.  You could also do the trade for Winder and Salas but I prefer Larnach straight up due to the surplus of LH hitting corner OF'ers.  I'd call the A's up and see what they think.  

[Larry Janisewski]

22 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Ideally, as everyone has said, Buxton would be playing CF almost every day and the question would be answered for at least the next few years.  Barring that happening, I would like to see them sign one of the better free agents to play CF.  Free agents only cost money, not prospects.  A fall back for me would be to get Austin Martin back on the field ASAP and have him become a CF.  He's athletic enough and if he can get hit anywhere near how he did in the AFL, the problem could be solved. 

It cannot be said enough that Buxton at DH is not a good play overall for the team.  Yes, he might be a top 5 DH.  However, that combines with a #29 CF, offensively speaking.  A young player like Julian, Wallner, or Larnach (assuming all are healthy) would likely be a top 10 or 15 DH, which when combined with a CF Buxton who would likely still be top 5 in CF, is a much better overall result.  CF is a position that Buxton has played all of his life. He may now have old man bad knees, but he would certainly still be able to play at a good level (maybe not gold glove, but still solid).  He is a player that needs to learn to play the position within reasonable parameters and not like superman.  The results would be just fine and the team would benefit. It's called maturity.

The offense needs Buxton in CF with someone else DH'ing (Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, ???). If Buxton gets hurt Twins just move on without him. Wasting a big part of his talents by sitting on the bench except for 4 AB's while he hits .230 or below.

[umterp23]

simulated of course... Miranda may be one hit wonder and he really has no defensive position.  Celestino isn't a full time CF.  Pagan isn't a good sweetener but can't hurt. If they want lanarch, would do that as well.  Just don't buy that he is a good fit for us long term.