Tommy John Surgery for Tyler Mahle: What Does it Mean for the Twins?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins announced on Thursday morning that Tyler Mahle will undergo Tommy John surgery. Here’s what that means for the Twins and his future.

Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

Tyler Mahle was arguably the team’s biggest trade deadline acquisition last season, and now his Twins tenure is likely finished after only nine appearances. The Twins announced on Thursday that Mahle will have Tommy John surgery which will sideline him for the remainder of 2023 and a significant portion of 2024. For Mahle, a pending free agent, it’s a horrible development. The Twins also must look back with regret on the trade that brought him to Minnesota.

Last August, the Twins sent a trio of prospects to the Cincinnati Reds for Mahle. He was under team control for the 2023 season via arbitration. It was a big swing by the front office to acquire a front-line starting pitcher for infielders Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and left-handed pitcher Steven Hajjar. Steer has been the Reds starting third baseman in 2023 while Encarnacion-Strand has hit well at Triple-A. Hajjar was traded to the Guardians organization earlier this season and has yet to appear in a game in 2023.

If healthy, Mahle was likely headed toward a big pay day in free agency. The Twins could have offered him the qualifying offer to get draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere. Unfortunately, both the team and the player miss out with an injury of this caliber. However, it doesn’t have to mean that Mahle’s time in a Twins uniform has come to an end.

Previously, the current Twins regime signed Michael Pineda to a two-year deal while he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Earlier this year, the Twins agreed to a contract extension with Chris Paddack while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Minnesota signed him to a three-year extension to cover his final two arbitration seasons and his first free agent year. He is on track to return to the mound later this season. 

There is a chance the Twins could approach Mahle with a similar deal so he can rehab in the Twins organization. However, the club would likely want to buy one or two years of free agency. 

In hindsight, there is little  question the Twins must regret making the initial trade for Mahle. The club knew about his injury history when they traded for him, but they were still willing to trade multiple prospects that ranked highly in the organization. His shoulder issues were frustrating last season because the team wasn’t able to specify the cause of the injury. Even Mahle himself became an unreliable source because he told the media that he felt fine and that he wouldn’t miss time after leaving starts early with diminished velocity. Some players will always say that they are fine, but Mahle hasn’t been healthy for much of the last two seasons.

Now, the Twins are going to need to decide if they want Mahle for future seasons. The team has Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland and Chris Paddack available for next year’s rotation. There are also young pitchers like  Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick, Jordan Balazovic, and David Festa that might be ready for a starting rotation spot. The Twins can move on from Mahle if they are worried about his long-term health.

Do you think the Twins should sign Mahle beyond this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Craig Arko]

Basically it means Ober, and probably Varland, have an opportunity to seize.

[CoasterProductions]

While I am bummed about Mahle I am also excited that Ober will be in the rotation for the rest of the year most likely. Now we need to get the bats to start hitting well.

[jmlease1]

It's a shame. I think the Twins were willing to take the risk on the shoulder because there hadn't been signs of real structural issues, plus they were trading from areas of strength. Until this year, to my knowledge, there wasn't any indicators of a elbow problem; doubtful they would have made anywhere near the same kind of investment in prospects if that was on the table. I thought it was a fair trade at the time (you have to give to get) and Mahle could have stabilized the rotation last season and positioned the Twins well for this year. CES was the only prospect I was really missing from whom we sent over (while Steer is playing for Cincy, I think his upside is limited. CES is a butcher on defense basically everywhere, but the bat might be special. Hajjar was interesting, but hasn't even pitched this season). Reasonable risk, especially considering where the Twins were in the standings and the needs in the rotation, but it didn't pan out.

I'd be willing to consider a "rehab contract" for Mahle, but let's see where the 40-man shakes out. Is saving him for a last 2024 return/2025 option going to be worth it? It really depends on how many guys we need to protect next year, I think and who knows where we'll be by then. We do have some guys that are for sure moving off the roster this off-season: Castro, Solano, Gray (seems likely), Maeda (seems likely), Garlick, maybe Kepler or Polanco, possibly Gallo depending on how the year goes, or guys like Pagan, Henriquez, or maybe Celestino...but there will also be prospects that need to be protected too.

You can never have too many starting pitchers, but Mahle's not an option that can be counted on.

[minman1982]

This is why I am glad that the Twins started 2023 with six or seven good options at starting pitcher. Before they offer Mahle a contract, it would be worth seeing how Ober and Varland do, how Paddack's rehab is going, and/or if someone else in St. Paul really step up. As we are seeing now, depth at this position is never a bad thing.

[beckmt]

He is young enough to take the risk, but I would want 3 FA years to make it work, maybe 3/27 to 3/33 would be the range. I think 2 years would be more risk and better for him.  He will have to take at least a 2 year pillow, so I would want three.  You can never have too much pitching. Also protects us against many of the youngsters failing,. Only other way would be Gray for 2 years, but he is going to want 3 - 4. 

[darwin22]

Count me in the camp of a resounding NO on signing Mahle back.  

Forecasting Lopez and Ryan as "locks" for the rotation in 24, I'm still of the belief that Gray's departure is not a foregone conclusion.  Should he return, then the development of Ober and Varland will dictate what direction the FO goes in the offseason.  SWR "could" be a viable option.  Same is true for Balazovich.  Investing major $$ for Mahle, who won't pitch until 2025 is not worth it.

 

[Craig Arko]

Already rolling the dice with Paddack. All things considered, I’d prefer the QO to Gray.

[dex8425]

I guess he'd be on the IL all of this year and most/all of next, so it wouldn't really create a 40 man crunch. We KNOW Mahle can be successful at the MLB level, and we don't know that about SWR, Enlow, Balazovic, etc. 

Better to have depth at the starting pitcher position. I like Mahle's stuff. 

[h2oface]

People tried to sell the trade hard, and support the trade full steam. Me? Loudly hated it from jump. Horrible trade now with final confirmation. Hurt when they traded for him. And a 4ish career ERA to boot. What a total failure.

[adjacent]

8 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Already rolling the dice with Paddack. All things considered, I’d prefer the QO to Gray.

But if you do the Q. offer he says yes, and you pay 18 million for nothing. If you still want him it has to be a 2 or 3 yr. deal to make it work. And it is still a risk.

[Florida Flash]

What does it mean you ask. It means that the Twins FO has been bamboozled yet again.

[Craig Arko]

8 minutes ago, adjacent said:

But if you do the Q. offer he says yes, and you pay 18 million for nothing. If you still want him it has to be a 2 or 3 yr. deal to make it work. And it is still a risk.

Gray is nothing?

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't see how you regret making a deal like this. You always have to give up something to get something, and arguably Steer and CES don't have a place on this roster, maybe at any point now or in the future arguably. 

Sometimes trades work out amazing. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran et al certainly are wins here, along with (arguably) Odorizzi for when he was healthy. So, you do this trade every time it comes up, and then see it play out.

Wish him the best of luck in rehab, and I'd love to extend him still if possible.

[adjacent]

Just now, Craig Arko said:

Gray is nothing?

I am sorry. I thought you were talking about Mahle

[SteveLV]

Offer him 3 years, $15M.  If he balks, he walks.  Tough to get a good contract at his age and his injury history, now undergoing TJS.  Not trying to be harsh, but that would be a fair sharing of risk for both parties.

 

Turns out to be a HORRIBLE trade by the FO.  10 starts over 2 seasons for 3 legit, good prospects/players. Yikes.

[h2oface]

50 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't see how you regret making a deal like this. You always have to give up something to get something, and arguably Steer and CES don't have a place on this roster, maybe at any point now or in the future arguably. 

Sometimes trades work out amazing. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran et al certainly are wins here, along with (arguably) Odorizzi for when he was healthy. So, you do this trade every time it comes up, and then see it play out.

Wish him the best of luck in rehab, and I'd love to extend him still if possible.

Because he was already hurt, and you only had him for a year and a half, just about all of which he spent not pitching for you. This was give up something for nothing.

[mikelink45]

Move on.  We have a lot of lessons to learn about players that cannot be on the field.  Would Steer now be at 3B? 

[Nashvilletwin]

Sad news for sure.  But not completely unpredictable (the TJ was obviously not predictable, but the unavailability is not surprising). In my heart, I think the FO understood the risks of Mahle and Maeda as the season drew closer and that is one reason they were aggressive in acquiring Lopez.

Having said that, besides feeling devastated for Mahle, this is not devastating news for the Twins. Ober and Varland are better as a pair than Mahle and Maeda.  Sure, we lose depth, but we gain better starts on average going forward and the upside of a faster learning curve for the young hurlers.

The Mahle trade didn’t work - hey, some do, some don’t.  You pay your money and you take your chance. Many of us wannabe GMs would have done it, some of us (I’m in this camp) would not have. No matter - water under the bridge now. Only course of action is to move forward. And I personally like who have to do that.

[tony&rodney]

Mahle out of the picture means the rotation will feature guys we hoped would develop, particularly Ober and Varland. We may see a trade for a pitcher in late July but the pitching has been impressive thus far. Mahle was a stretch as a #3 and us fans hoped he would be healthy and prove himself a decent #3. He is a part of the past now. So it goes.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins lost on this trade. I would take the same risk this July.

My guess it might take something like 5 and then 15 in a two year contract to Mahle. I don’t think I would do that deal but it isn’t a clear “no” to me.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, dex8425 said:

I guess he'd be on the IL all of this year and most/all of next, so it wouldn't really create a 40 man crunch.

I believe they have to carry him on the 40 all during the offseason.  That could be at the expense of one more prospect subject to the Rule 5 draft - or, not taking one such player ourselves - as two examples.

[USAFChief]

Bad trade, in retrospect, but I can't really hold it against the front office. 

However, throwing good money after bad by extending him? 

I'd consider that really poor management, and I'd be shocked if it happened.

 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Would Steer now be at 3B? 

No, Farmer would be (and is) at 3rd, with Lewis, Lee and Miranda (not necessarily in that order) behind him, and an expectation that Correa moves over there (arm!) later in his contract.

[BD57]

Do what's necessary (within reason) to get Gray back, let Mahle go unless he's willing to sign a discounted deal - And maybe even "if he'd be willing to sign a discounted deal."

He's had "health" issues, what, three years in a row now?   And it's not a case of "Well, they got the diagnosis wrong before."

A rotation starter who can't answer the bell is a liability.  Mahle's recent history provides NO reason to be confident he'd be any more available after TJ than he was before.

[HerbieFan]

I know with the offense struggling, people lament the loss of Arraez, but how's the Pablo Lopez trade looking now?  A top 3 of Lopez, Gray and Ryan is still good enough to lead the staff to a division championship.

[Alex Wilde]

8 hours ago, h2oface said:

People tried to sell the trade hard, and support the trade full steam. Me? Loudly hated it from jump. Horrible trade now with final confirmation. Hurt when they traded for him. And a 4ish career ERA to boot. What a total failure.

I’m glad you had a crystal ball to see into the future. The vast majority of folks praised this trade at the time because they were clamoring for starting pitching.  Hurt when they traded for him? He had shoulder soreness and everything pointed to fatigue after not having a spring training just like the majority of major league pitchers last year (Sonny Gray perfect example). They gave up an average at best 3B (no spot on this team), a bat only DH (plenty of other options on this team), and a High A pitcher who may never see above AAA. PLEASE go find something else to complain about.

[twinstalker]

Who could have foreseen this?  Certainly not Falvey!  And which struggling team would give anything at all of value for CES?  I've got to believe those teams are more excited about any average players under their control.  And how in the world could the Twins even use someone like Steer?  It would be impossible to come up with a scenario where the Twins would need him.

Clearly, the trade was a force majeure, and nothing could changed this outcome.  Boy, are we cursed.  Gee.

[NotAboutWinning]

7 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

I know with the offense struggling, people lament the loss of Arraez, but how's the Pablo Lopez trade looking now?  A top 3 of Lopez, Gray and Ryan is still good enough to lead the staff to a division championship.

I agree. A phenomenal pitching staff is what is keeping the Twins in 1st place at this point. I miss Arraez. But, honestly, his on-base skills would be wasted when there isn’t anyone hitting behind him.

[mikelink45]

9 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

No, Farmer would be (and is) at 3rd, with Lewis, Lee and Miranda (not necessarily in that order) behind him, and an expectation that Correa moves over there (arm!) later in his contract.

That depends on the sequence of events related to the Reds if we were not after Mahle..  With him you might be right.