You're Wrong to Not Like Max Kepler

[Greggory Masterson]

He may not have lived up to your expectations, he may be blocking your favorite player, and he may bat too far up in the lineup, but he helps teams win games.
 

You’re not alone if you are firmly in the anti-Max Kepler camp, and no Twins Daily article can convince you to love him. Instead, read this as assurance that the Twins can get something of value for him.

The current regime does not part with assets for no return. They may hold on to them for too long, but if they have value, they won’t be salary dumped. Kepler could fit into both groups, depending on your outlook. After a terrific 2019 campaign, in which he smacked 36 home runs with an OPS+ of 123 (23% better than the average hitter) as a 26-year-old, he had suiters. The Twins didn’t bite and retained him on a team-friendly extension.

Since then, the Twins and Kepler have been chasing a high, hoping he can put together another year like 2019. He has shown flashes. In 2022, before a May 28th leg injury, he slashed .247/.353/.425, hitting 26% better than the average player. He trod water until late July when he suffered a fractured toe, which he fought through to a tune of .178/.239/.228, 68% below average. Still, on the year, he was merely a slightly below-average hitter.

A slightly below-average hitter is nothing to be excited about, but that’s who Kepler has been almost his entire career. It’s somewhat befuddling, as he is, by and large, the same hitter in 2023 as a 23-year-old in 2016. It’s part of fans’ frustration with him—he seems to have not developed over his eight-year career.

Why is he valuable, then? His defense, for one. He plays a terrific right field. He’s 8th across MLB in Outs Above Average (OAA) among all outfielders since 2020. That stat is remarkable because scoring well as a corner outfielder is more difficult than a centerfielder. And runs saved are runs saved. He has range and an arm and can cover centerfield in a pinch. He’s a solid centerfielder but prefers to stay in the corner.

He can be considered a solid regular as an almost-average hitter with an elite defense. He’s averaged more than 2.0 WAR over the last three seasons via both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That number is generally taken as meaning solid regular.

Is that what fans had hoped for after his 2019 campaign? Nope. Is it valuable? Yup.

Pair this value with his contract—it pays him $8.5 million this year with a $10 million option for next year. It’s frankly a bargain, given his production. Andrew Benintendi, another corner outfielder worth approximately the same value since 2020, was given a five-year, $75 million contract, good for $15 million a year until 2027.

Nonetheless, the context matters here. Many of the Twins’ most exciting prospects or recently-graduated prospects are left-handed corner outfielders—Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and even Edouard Julien, if you’re feeling frisky. The presence of Kepler blocks those players.

Although it is fun to dream on those young hitters, none are a guarantee. Kirilloff, quite famously, is coming off of his second major wrist surgery to repair an injury that has decimated his performance at the plate and could potentially flare up again. Larnach has also dealt with several injuries and has been a below-average hitter and worse defender than Kepler across 603 MLB plate appearances. Wallner and Julien have been acceptable in their minimal time, but that’s not necessarily indicative of future performance.

It’s very reasonable to look at that information and come to a conclusion that the drop-off, if there is one, between those prospects and Kepler can’t be too drastic, given Kepler’s moderate ceiling. At the same time, there is value in known commodities, which Kepler is at this point in his career. He’s off to a solid start in 2023, despite his early struggles. An average hitter with great corner defense isn’t someone to build your lineup around, but it’s not a weakness.

That statement is said with full knowledge that Kepler has served as the primary leadoff hitter in 2023 against righties. It’s one of the more frustrating parts of the situation. If he were hitting seventh, he probably wouldn’t have more fans, but he would have fewer detractors.

Let’s do a mental exercise. Imagine you were a GM and had never heard of Max Kepler. If he were described as an average hitter with 20 homer pop and an average on-base percentage, a potential Gold Glove right fielder who can play center when needed, and he cost $10 million, would your ears perk up?

Maybe. It depends on your circumstances. He won’t be appetizing for a Padres team with Fernando Tatís Jr. and Juan Soto in their corner spots. On the other hand, a Yankees team that’s running out Willie Calhoun and Franchy Cordero is probably interested to some degree, even when their injured regulars return. Kepler fits the bill of a perfect fourth outfielder.

Your opinion on his fit with the Twins probably lies in whether you see some combination of Nick Gordon, Joey Gallo, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, and maybe Julien, Royce Lewis, and Kyle Garlick as being closer to Tatis-Soto or to Calhoun-Cordero.

It’s really not as fun to say, “he’s an asset that a winning team can make use of,” as it is to say, “he’s a bum,” or “he’s a misunderstood genius,” but that’s where this lands.

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[dxpavelka]

Wouldn't be the first guy to have Twins fans long for his departure and take years to adequately replace.  STILL waiting for Larnach & Kiriloff to reach the level Rosario was at before he left.

 

[Major League Ready]

19 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Wouldn't be the first guy to have Twins fans long for his departure and take years to adequately replace.  STILL waiting for Larnach & Kiriloff to reach the level Rosario was at before he left.

 

Rosario produced 1.1 fWAR in 2019 and .9 on 2021.  He produced .7 fWAR the year he left.  After leaving he produced a negative 1.1 fWAR and he is replacement level this year.   Kepler has been a more valuable player for the last several years.  Extending Rosario would have been an enormous mistake.  He is literally one of the worst corner OFers in the league.  He has not been good since the first half of 2018.  He was really great for half of a season in 2018 and a half season in 2017.

[mickster]

27 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Wouldn't be the first guy to have Twins fans long for his departure and take years to adequately replace.  STILL waiting for Larnach & Kiriloff to reach the level Rosario was at before he left.

 

Rosario had the one shining moment in the postseason.   We are better off with our current rotation of Larnach and Kiriloff

[PatPfund]

I really like Max; have a Kepler jersey. And I think he has been awful offensively for years. I also hate the shift ban as giving in to limited skill players  too stupid to learn to hit the other way (or even lay down a freakin' bunt if you are a lefty; looking at you, Max). But...

The early going makes it appear the shift ban is doing two things. 1. Kepler is getting some hits that last year would have been outs. 2. (Maybe) the extra hits seem to have him more relaxed at the plate instead of mentally fighting (and losing) the mental game against the shift.

Coming into the year, I wanted the Twins to serve the teams needs and not let Kepler stand in the way of a better younger player. Kepler hitting more like .240/.250 with pop (instead of a weak .210/.220) IS the better player until the kids prove better. Which is the way it should be on a good team.

 

[Dan Engebretson]

Here are some Fangraphs data I posted earlier this year comparing Kepler's first halves versus second halve throughout his career.  With the exception of 2018, Kepler has been an above average hitter (by Fangraph's wRC+ stat), whereas he has been below average in the second half with the exceptions of 2018 and 2019.  On his career, he has had more first-half plate appearances and is an 11% above average hitter.  In my original post from January (I cannot figure out how to include it here), I speculated that Kepler may be worn down or injured in the second half (we know this was the case last year, but my memory fails me for earlier years) and I hoped that the new training staff will help either maintain his strength or better recover from injury.  Both may be helped by the Twins depth of corner outfielders allowing Kepler more time to recover while there is an adequate replacement.  Last year, with injuries to Larnach and Kirilof and a pretty bare cupboard, Kepler played when frankly, he should have been on the IL (at least in my opinion) recovering from a broken toe.

While I don't think Kepler will ever achieve the lofty goals set by his 2019 performance, I wholeheartedly agree that his performance is worthy of "regular starter" status.  Given the shear number of young, inexpensive corner outfield options the Twins have, I do expect them to shop Kepler at the trade deadline, and I expect they will get good value (assuming he continues to produce), because a 2 fWAR player at $10M is a good deal.  Similarly, I will not be at all disappointed if the Twins keep Kepler, because his contract is still a good value for a very good player.

 

Quote

 

 

[roger]

Have been a huge fan of Max since he came up.  So count me among those that hope like heck he is still a Twin in 2024.  Beyond that, just don't know.

So unlike many of you I like him, a lot.  But then I also appreciate pitching, running the bases AND defense more than most.  

[John Belinski]

I like Max. He may not be a star, but he is certainly not a bum. He doesn't swing at a lot of bad pitches and he is good in the outfield. Good teams need a few star players, but also need players like Max. I do think he should not be batting in the leadoff spot, but the Twins do not really have a good leadoff batter and that has hurt the Twins this year.

[Aerodeliria]

I've been sort of 'meh' on Kepler for quite a while. I remember in 2019, the hitting coaches were trying to get Kepler to hit to center and somewhat to the left side. It appeared to be working. At some point after that, this idea was trashed for some reason and he reverted to dead pull hitting once again. It's a pity because I thought he would eventually be a about a .270 hitter and hit about 25 home runs each year. His defending has also dropped off a bit as well, but he's much better than the alternatives.

[Beast]

The “surplus” has evaporated pretty quickly.  Kirilloff is done as an outfielder.  Larnach can’t hit the broad side of a barn right now.  Gordon, despite some good ABs recently has been one of the worst players in the MLB.  Taylor started off great, but is back to earth.  Buxton has been relegated to DH duty.

Remember when about 75% of the people here thought the Gallo signing was awful and we absolutely had to move Kepler for a bag of peanuts?  We might be looking at the worst hitting outfields in the history of the game right now.  Pretty good moves by the FO despite the public backlash.
 

[USNMCPO]

Larnach demoted for lack of consistency; Walter in St Paul and has similar traits as Larnach; Martin on IL for who knows how long; Lewis and Lee should stay in the infield. Max may be finally settling into a consistent above average player His age and cost will have a big say in what his future is with the Twins. i want him to succeed and stay (but I must admit he is my wife's favorite player which would bring harmony to my household)

[Thebigalguy]

Max won yesterday's game with a two-run homer, the only runs scored in the game by either side. It's true that he seems rigid at the plate, without the resilience or flexibility we hoped he'd develop after his big year. Even so, Max earns his keep, given the ridiculous inflationary salaries in MLB. What you see with him is what you get, a pull hitter better off without the infield shifts who screws up his swing when he tries to hit to the opposite field. He has power. Also, injuries affected his capabilities in ways that even he himself perhaps refused to acknowledge. Let's see, now that he's healthy (if not wise) how he does in 2023, a year when many of us think the Twins have a shot at getting to the postseason and actually winning a series for a change. 

[rwilfong86]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Wouldn't be the first guy to have Twins fans long for his departure and take years to adequately replace.  STILL waiting for Larnach & Kiriloff to reach the level Rosario was at before he left.

 

Agreed. I hated that they let him walk for nothing in return.

[jkcarew]

He’s currently our best hitting outfielder.

And that’s part of the problem.

Max is being Max…he’s fine. Even seems like he’s edging his OBP with the walks closer to what you’d want in a lead off hitter.

But neither him being the best hitter in the outfield…or him being the lead off hitter are his fault. He’s not one of the clubs current problems.

[tony&rodney]

Kepler gets his name in pen in the lineup until there is someone who is clearly an upgrade. If you were picking teams, he remains the name that is called first among our present outfielders (BB is a DH). The defense and base running, despite a horrible gaff earlier this season, are still ahead of the others and his bat doesn't trail either.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Aerodeliria said:

I've been sort of 'meh' on Kepler for quite a while. I remember in 2019, the hitting coaches were trying to get Kepler to hit to center and somewhat to the left side. It appeared to be working. At some point after that, this idea was trashed for some reason and he reverted to dead pull hitting once again. It's a pity because I thought he would eventually be a about a .270 hitter and hit about 25 home runs each year. His defending has also dropped off a bit as well, but he's much better than the alternatives.

Kepler had a pull percentage of 50.8 in 2019. Highest of his career. He was at 42.6, 41.9, and 41.7 the last 3 seasons. 

[Dave Borton]

Quote

If you were picking teams...

The image which immediately popped into my head was hands on the tossed bat, topping one another to the knob to determine who got first pick of our motley, non-uniformed assembled group.

"Those were the days my friend, we thought they'd never end..." Where did they go?

[2wins87]

The reaction against Kepler is definitely overblown. I've heard takes that make it sound like he's been useless outside of his one All-star season, when in reality he's been a steadily solid starting caliber player every year. I feel like most guys who who are solid regulars with one good year *cough* Rosario *cough* tend to be remembered more fondly for whatever reason.  So much of his value being tied to his defense rather than offense is probably a big part of it.

I think I blame Gleeman partly who probably has a lot of influence over the opinions of very online fans like myself. To be fair to him, I think his point has more been that there has never been any evidence that Kepler was poised for a breakout, despite that common narrative, since his contact quality has always been weak overall. He is right about that point, but harping on it over and over again over the years probably helps to feed the negative narratives around Kepler.

Anyway, if I had one knock on Kepler it would be that he seems to have been resistant to playing center in the past when he could have been very useful there with his defensive skillset in Buxton's many absences. It seems he never really got comfortable there but I still think he could have if he allowed himself, and instead the team seemed to have given up on forcing the issue and settled for lesser defensive options.

[CRF]

It's not that I don't like him, but I'm honestly not a real big fan. It's kind of an I could take him or leave him feeling. It sure wouldn't bother me if he was gone. The thing is...just when I'm about to scream at the tv because he'll probably hit another weak grounder or pop up, he crushes one like last night and wins a game for us. Rocco must love him though, because he plays just about every game. 

[Greggory Masterson]

12 minutes ago, CRF said:

It's not that I don't like him, but I'm honestly not a real big fan. It's kind of an I could take him or leave him feeling. It sure wouldn't bother me if he was gone. The thing is...just when I'm about to scream at the tv because he'll probably hit another weak grounder or pop up, he crushes one like last night and wins a game for us. Rocco must love him though, because he plays just about every game. 

To be frank, I'm in the same position. I've been hoping that the youth would come up to replace him for three years now, but until then, I don't see them moving him, nor does it make sense for him to be moved.

[ashbury]

I can't see Kepler being of interest to a team with no post-season aspirations.  So can we come up with another team besides the Yankees who have a need for an average player in a non-key defensive spot, and who see getting him as the difference between success and failure?  Because if not, the Yanks will offer a lottery-ticket player and say "take it or leave it, we're doing enough by taking the remainder of his salary off your books. We'll give you a little more for one of your young guys, though."

And if we keep him, can we envision him being the guy who gets hot and helps carry the team to a playoff series win, a la Eddie Rosario?

He's barely worth discussing, almost.  And I don't hate him.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Rosario produced 1.1 fWAR in 2019 and .9 on 2021.  He produced .7 fWAR then year he left.  After leaving he produced a negative 1.1 fWAR and he is replacement level this year.   Kepler has been a more valuable player for the last several years.  Extending Rosario would have been an enormous mistake.  He is literally one of the worst corner OFers in the league.  He has not been good since the first half of 2018.  He was really great for half of a season in 2018 and a half season in 2017.

All of that and Larnach & Kiriloff have still not produced. 

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, mickster said:

Rosario had the one shining moment in the postseason.   We are better off with our current rotation of Larnach and Kiriloff

Especially with Larnach in St. Paul.

 

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, mickster said:

Rosario had the one shining moment in the postseason.   We are better off with our current rotation of Larnach and Kiriloff

What's a shining moment in the post-season?

[Greggory Masterson]

16 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I can't see Kepler being of interest to a team with no post-season aspirations.  So can we come up with another team besides the Yankees who have a need for an average player in a non-key defensive spot?  Because if not, the Yanks will offer a lottery-ticket player and say "take it or leave it, we're doing enough by taking his salary off your books."

I just went through the rosters of every team with a winning record. I may be forgetting about some injured players, but based on the current rosters, their performance, and my quick judgement, Kepler would reasonably have a valuable spot on the following teams:

Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Brewers
Angels*
Astros
Jays*
Rays*

*probably better suited as a platoon 4th outfielder

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

I just went through the rosters of every team with a winning record. I may be forgetting about some injured players, but based on the current rosters, their performance, and my quick analysis, Kepler would reasonably have a valuable spot on the following teams:

Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Brewers

Thanks for the research I was too lazy to provide.

Memo to Thad Levine: you're on the clock now, make something good happen between now and the trading deadline. 

(Not gonna get much from a team looking for a 4th outfielder though.)

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I like Max Kepler.  However. . .

I think that many people's (like mine) negative feelings about Kepler are that he looked to be a player on his way to a big career in 2019 at age 26 -- an age that seems much too early to peak.  However, that was it.  He has never been close to that player since and seems to have stagnated offensively.  Is he worthless, useless, and without merit?  No, he's not, but what seemed like the potential for greatness has certainly never been realized.  He doesn't strike out a lot, which is great, I guess, but it isn't like he is hitting powerful line drives all over the field either.  He won a game for us yesterday with a home run.  That's great, but lots of players have hit a home run (or a double, like Nick Gordon) to win a game.  That doesn't necessarily make him a world beater.

He's a very good defensive outfielder.  However, I'm a bit tired of hearing him referred to as a "centerfielder".  He doesn't like to play centerfield, doesn't want to play centerfield, and has really only played centerfield on an emergency basis.  He's a rightfielder.  That isn't nothing, but a good rightfielder isn't as valuable as a good centerfielder (or catcher, or shortstop). 

I know that some of the prospects haven't developed into world beaters (yet), but I would prefer to have someone in rightfield that has potential to be something better (or at least as good as) than he has been before - someone on his way up. Kiriloff/Walner/Larnach might be that or they might not.  I have no faith that Kepler will become a 3.0 or 4.0 WAR player (in 2019 it sure looked like he would do that consistently) after being barely a 2.0 WAR player the past three years, so I would rather see someone there who just might someday, particularly if Kepler has enough trade value to bring back something positive for this season. 

[Twodogs]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Rosario produced 1.1 fWAR in 2019 and .9 on 2021.  He produced .7 fWAR then year he left.  After leaving he produced a negative 1.1 fWAR and he is replacement level this year.   Kepler has been a more valuable player for the last several years.  Extending Rosario would have been an enormous mistake.  He is literally one of the worst corner OFers in the league.  He has not been good since the first half of 2018.  He was really great for half of a season in 2018 and a half season in 2017.

Wasn't he the MVP of the NLCS? 

[DocBauer]

I'm a Max fan,and have been so, since the day he was signed. HR ball or not, I thought he turned a corner in 2019 and was finally reaching the ceiling that tantalized so many of us. And I could have dealt with some regression. But his past 3 seasons all show declining OPS season by season.

To be fair, I had briefly forgotten he was hitting better in 2022 until his foot injury seemed to derail his year. Also, to be fair, after a horrendous early start this year, and a brief IL stint, he is again performing at least average, if not a touch better.

While I have been rather critical of Max in recent posts...deservedly so IMO...I've always done so reluctantly, and have stated as much. And with enough questions to begin the season as there were optional answers, it was probably smart to have him back.

But even with Gallo probably gone next year, Max available on the inexpensive side, and still 5 LH bats unproven for the OF corners and 1B, at some point you have to allow those players to succeed or fail. I usually don't agree with simply handing out roster/lineup spots without them being earned. And I'm OK swapping Larnach right now for AK as a re-set for the one, and opportunity for the other. But at some point, doesn't it make sense to remove the 30yo, average hitter for younger, cheaper, higher ceiling players? Or do they all have to hit .300 immediately when they reach the Twins in their 15 day audition before being sent down again with no room for failure or growth?

I like Max. I've never been a hater. The fact he never became what I hoped he would be doesn't make me dislike him one bit. I'm not even angry he's still around. But you don't have to dislike him to recognize his limitations or the number of younger, talented hitters available to turn to, roll with, and roll through as necessary, until the right combination is found amongst those talented, younger players.

[jmlease1]

I like Max Kepler just fine, but he is who he is at this point: a quality defender and around league average on offense. It's not particularly exciting for a corner OF, and there's not much upside left. At the same time the floor is pretty solid. I might have moved on from him in the offseason if the deal was decent, but I get keeping him considering all the injuries we've had.

The Rosario stuff is pretty much nonsense: he wasn't worth another raise, and proved it after leaving. He wasn't starter-quality in 2021, and Atlanta overreacted to a great series by giving him a terrible contract that they've immediately regretted. Neither Larnach nor Kirilloff have performed as hoped over the past 2+ seasons and they've still added more value than Rosario over that period.

Kepler isn't Rosario: even when he's struggling at the plate, he's adding value, but at a certain point there's going to be a question on whether or not he's producing enough at the plate to justify the roster spot and the contract, especially with other hitters in the minors pushing for a chance.