Dan Engebretson

If Jackson makes it through waivers and Jeffers accepts a QO (if made), the Twins could trade Caratini and roll with Jeffers/Jackson in 2027. This would effectively reduce Jeffers’ contract by $7M (I think this is what Caratini is owed next year). That may be more palatable.

If I recall correctly, the ESPN folks give the Orioles about a 50% chance of making the postseason. That tells me the Orioles are a good team. The Twins lost to a good team at home 2-1. While you never want to lose, losses happen and this was not a terrible loss, the wheels did not fall off any stage of the game. Ryan pitched wonderfully, and it would have been great if Funderburk and Topa had pitched as well, but they did not. It is entirely unreasonable to demand pitchers be perfect. They did ok. More (most?) troubling to me is the 1-12 RISP. The upside, of course, is the 12 opportunities, the downside, is they failed in all of them. If my memory is correct, the one hit was with a runner on second base and the hit was a dribbler that could not advance the runner. As already mentioned, this is a trend carrying over for several years. What I saw as an upside and definitely different from the beginning of last year, but carrying over from where last year finished is better base-stealing. Martin’s aggressive theft of second, prevented a double-play that almost certainly would have resulted when Buxton dribbled an easy double-play. I am looking forward to more baseball, and frankly hope that the Twins continue to play like they did yesterday (though, I suspect they will not).

Vazquez’ fWAR has always been above zero and the last two years have been 0.8 and 0.9. He is consistently above replacement level (and if he were “full time” catcher, his fWAR would likely be higher because it is a counting stat). This is in contrast with catchers like Sandy Leon, who rarely had fWAR above zero. While I agree (and the stats support) that Vazquez is a bit overpaid for his output, he is not a scrap-heap catcher. He brings real value that cannot be easily replaced and I don’t believe the Twins should just throw him by the wayside for nothing. (Though I would not have a problem with a rational trade that improved the team for next year).

Kepler got a ball 4 gift.

Haven’t said this for years. Good baserunning Twins!

Silver lining — the Twins have not missed any opportunities with runners in scoring position.

It looks like Martin might be the only one whose batting average exceeds their weight, and this is only because Martin is a pretty small guy.

I'm not sure fun is the f-word you're looking for there.

Here are some Fangraphs data I posted earlier this year comparing Kepler's first halves versus second halve throughout his career. With the exception of 2018, Kepler has been an above average hitter (by Fangraph's wRC+ stat), whereas he has been below average in the second half with the exceptions of 2018 and 2019. On his career, he has had more first-half plate appearances and is an 11% above average hitter. In my original post from January (I cannot figure out how to include it here), I speculated that Kepler may be worn down or injured in the second half (we know this was the case last year, but my memory fails me for earlier years) and I hoped that the new training staff will help either maintain his strength or better recover from injury. Both may be helped by the Twins depth of corner outfielders allowing Kepler more time to recover while there is an adequate replacement. Last year, with injuries to Larnach and Kirilof and a pretty bare cupboard, Kepler played when frankly, he should have been on the IL (at least in my opinion) recovering from a broken toe. While I don't think Kepler will ever achieve the lofty goals set by his 2019 performance, I wholeheartedly agree that his performance is worthy of "regular starter" status. Given the shear number of young, inexpensive corner outfield options the Twins have, I do expect them to shop Kepler at the trade deadline, and I expect they will get good value (assuming he continues to produce), because a 2 fWAR player at $10M is a good deal. Similarly, I will not be at all disappointed if the Twins keep Kepler, because his contract is still a good value for a very good player.

Data from Fangraphs (below) shows that Kepler's first half numbers are solid, but routinely (and sometimes catastrophically) fall off in the second half. I know last year he broke a toe in June and struggled after that. I wonder if Kepler wears down or plays through/with injury and it hurts his offensive productivity. Perhaps changes in the training staff will help. First Half numbers: Second Half:

I would add "player development" as a weakness. Examples of poor player development that are too frequently seen include poor baserunning. Grabbing a recent example, in Sunday's 10th inning loss, Kepler should have stayed near the bag on the Miranda's ball hit to the center field so Kepler could tag and advance to third. Rather, he went half-way on contact and had to retreat to second and lost the chance to advance to third. Gordon's groundout could have scored a smart baserunning Kepler from third, instead the poor baserunning Kepler could only get to third. In an earlier post in this thread, tarheeltwinsfan nicely articulated differences between "good clutch hitters" and "poor clutch hitters." The last few weeks not withstanding, most of the Twins hitters are really quite good; focusing on pre-All Star numbers, the Twins had the fifth highest OPS in MLB and 3rd highest in the AL. That's a team that knows how to hit a baseball (they have the talent). However, those numbers tank with RISP and particularly RISP with two out. I think well-developed hitters are aware of the situtation and rather than swinging for the fences in those situations, htey focus on advancing the runner, not getting out, and particularly not striking out (particularly with two out).

To build on Old Twins Cap a bit, I think we look too much at the shortcomings of the Twins pitching staff and not enough at the shortcomings of the Twins offense and mistake-prone play. To grab a recent example -- June 29th's 10th inning loss. At the end of 9 innings the Twins were 1-8 w/RISP and had left six on base. The Twins ranks near the bottom of MLB of OPS w/RISP *(particularly with 2-outs); you cannot expect to consistently win games when you routinely leave baserunners on the bags. Additionally, the Twins seem to make lots mistakes -- not necessarily errors -- think wild pitches, passed balls, dropped fly balls in foul territory, poor baserunning, etc. Specific examples from game #2 of the doubleheader include Jeffers sloppy early-home-run-that-wan't trot that resulted in an out at second, which was immediately followed by the Celestino/Miranda confusion of suicide vs. safety squeeze that eliminated a runner a third. Granted, the Twins won 6-0 so the lost runs are moot, but sloppy play is sloppy play. Also in that game, the Twins were 1-9 w/RISP (so you can win with poor performances w/RISP). In terms of problems, I think the pitching problems are more solvable than the clutch hitting and mistake-prone play. You can buy your way out of the pitching problems (I don't know the Twins appetite for spending more or trading assets), but poor clutch hitting and mistake-prone play seems like a development problem that likely starts early in the minors and will take years to fix. To summarize, I agree that Twins have pitching problems, but I think the bigger, and more difficult to solve problems are poor clutch hitting and generally sloppy play. I think these problems have plagued the Twins for years and are at the heart of the 0-`18 playoff streak. Until these problems are resolved, I don't think the Twins can be an elite team.

So, I go to preview today's game and see Astudillo listed among Twins batters? I don't see any roster move. Any insight?

Simmons is on the restricted list because he cannot travel to Canada (more accurately, cannot travel outside the US) without resetting the progress he has made in becoming a permanent US resident.

Thank you for poor baserunning.

To clarify, if the Twins do take 4 from the Sox the Twins would be 6.5 games behind the Sox, not necessarily 6.5 games out of first. If Cleveland has a synchronous 4 game win streak with the Twins, then the Twins would be 9 games behind Cleveland (9 games is the current deficit between Cleveland and the Twins) and Cleveland would be the division leader (nobody could overtake them). But, your point is spot on; to have any chance the Twins must win the games they play. How many games you must win gets murky when there are multiple teams between you and first place.

The silver lining: No inherited runners scored and Sano only struck out once!

In 2002, the Twins were Division Champs. In 2003, the Twins were 7.5 games out of first in the Central at the All Star Break with a sub .500 record of 44-49. They traded Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewart and the combination of them playing (reasonably) well and KC stumbling resulted in the Twins winning the division and heading to the playoffs (and actually winning a game!). The 2003 team underperformed expectations but still reached the playoffs. Coming in to the 2021 season, most thought the Twins were a flawed, but solid team (not unlike the 2003 Twins) that many expected to make it to the playoffs. There is no doubt this team has underpeformed, but I believe if they're within 10 games (in 2003, the Twins won the Division by 4 games, so they gained 11.5 games from the All Star Break), they should add some good relief pitching and give it a run.

It looks like the bullpen is unlikely to allow any inherited runners to score tonight.

I think the Twins should add a quality defensive short stop via free agency. Jose Iglesias is available as a free agent and has consistently put up good defensive numbers. His offense is not god-awful (OBP is alright and not much power), but I believe the Twins can sacrifice some offense in exchange for what I believe will be significant overall improvement in defense. Putting a good defender next to Sano will make Sano appear better so he can stay put at 3B. I would also add a good glove at 1B (perhaps one of the Twins minor leaguers could fit in here, I don't know much about their defensive prowess); a good 1B receiver will also help Sano's defense. I would prefer to keep Polanco and slide him to 2B. Polanco would be flanked by good defenders at SS and 1B and also helped by a good glove at 1B. I really like Arraez, but with this plan, he will likely get traded or stashed in the minors.

I looked at the fielding stats over at Fangraphs. On the year, the Twins had 10 position players (not inlcuding catchers) that played 300+ innings at a position in the field. Only three had positive UZR/150 -- Max Kepler 20.6 in RF, Byron Buxton 15.7 in CF, and Max Kepler 9.5 in CF (yes, Max was two of the Twins 3 players with positive UZR/150). Marwin Gonzalez only played 291.2 innings at 3B, but had an 18.9 UZR/150. Contrast that with the Yankees; they have 8 players with positive UZR/150 (including Brett Gardner counted twice like Max Kepler) and 5 that are negative. The Astros (whom I believe are the most complete team in baseball) have 8 players with positive UZR/150 (Springer counted twice) and 4 that are negative. The Twins have demonstrated that they are a true offensive force, however, they've also demonstrated that they are incredbily weak defensively. While it is probably difficult to determine how much the weak defense negatively impacts pitching, it certainly makes our pitchers work harder each game. I think the Twins gain nothing by rearranging the deck chairs (moving Sano to first....), they must make meaningful personnel changes (particularly in the infield, where every one of our starters with more than 300 defense innings played, has a negative UZR/150) to improve the defense. That might start with keeping Marwin at 3B, but Sano is not a good answer at 1B (223 career innings and negative 5.3 UZR/150), and at least for this upcoming year, there is no way (barring injury to Cruz) that Sano gets many ABs at DH. I think the Twins need to get a great glove/good bat 1B (could very well be one of the minor leaguers stepping up). Work hard to acquire Jose Iglesias (free agent) for SS. Move Polanco to 2B. Keep Sano at 3B (his defense improves by having a better SS next to him and a better receiver at 1B). Trade Arraez; an alternative would be to keep Arraez at 2B and trade Polanco. I suspect that with Polanco's excellent bat and good contract that many teams would give a solid return.

One error on what should have been a double play (two outs), and one additional error (one out) means that the Twins gave the Brewers an extra inning of offense. It's really tough to win when the other team gets to play an additional inning.

Before play today (Monday, August 5), the Twins have the third best record in the AL at 69-42. If the playoffs started today, they would be an AL playoff team along with the Astros, Yankees, Indians, and Rays with the Athletics just a half game out of the wildcard picture. The Twins record agains the AL playoff teams (not including the Athletics) is 16-13, which trails only the Yankees (20-13). The Astros are next with a sub-500 12-13, and they are trailed by the Indians and Rays at 10-13, and 13-19 respectively. Obviously, the teams have changed (particularly the Astros with the addition of Greinke) since many of these games were played, but the bottom line is that the Twins have a winning record agains the AL playoff teams. If you throw games against the Athletics into the mix (not unreasonable since they are barely out of the playoff picture), the situation changes a bit, with the Twins sliding to the third best record (19-17) trailing the Yankees and Astros that are 20-13 and 16-13. The Twins are leading the Athletics, Rays, and Indians, with records of 15-16, 16-23, and 11-18 respectively. It is interesting that the Yankees have beat up on the Rays (12-5), and the Astros have beat up on the Athletics (9-2), while the Twins have been competitive with the Indians (5-4) so far this season. The Twins worst performance is against the (surprise!) Yankees where the Twins fell 2-4; all other series are either +1 or -1. So the bottom line is that the Twins have been competitive against the AL playoff teams.

Who are the Fox Sports TV announcers for tonight's game?

In quite a few threads there are lamentations about Buxton's poor performance. Folks frequently had similar lamentations about Aaron Hicks during his tenure with the Twins. I decided to pull some numbers on each of the players (note, this is not nearly as sophisticated an analysis as many of the regulars on TD accomplish): Buxton Year PA wRC+ OPS 2015 138 53 576 2016 331 86 714 2017 511 90 728 980 Plate Appearances As a Twin Hicks Year PA wRC+ OPS 2013 313 62 597 2014 225 83 615 2015 390 96 721 928 Plate Appearances As a Twin 2016 361 64 617 2017 361 127 847 For each player, their number of plate appearances are similar for their first three "full" years as a Twin and showed general year-over-year improvement. Hicks's fourth year (with Yankees) was a significant regression from his third year (though not nearly as bad as Buxton's 2018 has been; couldn't even force myself to type those horrific numbers!), but Hicks' fifth year (except for shortened by injury) was great (offensively) and his sixth year (2018 and not in the information above) is even better. At the time Hicks was traded many were not unhappy to see him go (let's not let hindsight and the John Ryan Murphy fiasco cloud our memories of the past). My take home message with this post is that while Buxton has certainly been terrible this year there is precedent for players requiring more than the magical 1000 PAs to achieve success as a Major Leaguer. Allow yourself to imagine Buxton following a similar offensive trajectory as Hicks, a wRC+ of 127 with Buxton's defensive capability? That's good stuff right there.