BREAKING: Twins Finalizing an Extension with Star Pitcher Pablo Lopez

[JD-TWINS]

BTW: Granted, all through 16 games……

Solano - a plus

Taylor - a plus

P. Lopez - BIG plus

Farmer - a plus

Gallo……not a complete failure, w/risk taken

Bullpen construction - looking good

Let’s take a few breaths before asking for the FO to get fired or resign. Awfully lot of things falling into place!

[JD-TWINS]

9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed and love this move. A 4 year contract for a quality MLB starting pitcher that can fill the #1 or #2 spot in a contending team rotation for less than $20m a year? Very well done. Injury could derail this of course, but even 3 good years out of the 4 year deal would be an awesome return. 

Who's next? I would love to see them work out something with Gray - maybe 3 years, $40-50m? He's 33 so there's risk there but that lowers the AAV. Mahle? Not so sure about him. Let's not overrate him just because we may have given up too much to get him. 

It's great to see that they are trying to maximize the 6 year competitive window of the Correa and Buxton contracts. We might be in for a longish run of competitive teams. Wow, wouldn't have said that 6 months ago....  

Mahle doesn’t have mental make-up to be a quality MLB arm. He pitches away from contact to a fault. Throws too many pitches & gives up too many HR. I watched him here in Cinti for 3 plus years - still same guy. 4.25ERA guy….Ober, even as a health risk, is a better option.

I hope Mahle proves me wrong but I just don’t think he has the IT!

[ashbury]

$20M per year seems market correct, and the years seem a bit short, so the risk versus reward is favorable to both sides I suppose.

[Puckett34]

[Major League Ready]

Does this mean they are buying his final arbitration year plus 3 years?

[USAFChief]

When's the last time the Twins did an extension in-season?

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Does this mean they are buying his final arbitration year plus 3 years?

Yes.

[2wins87]

I originally assumed that the deal was including this year, but if it's true that it starts next year it seems like an even better deal.

He probably would have been due a bit over $10M next year, so they guarantee 3 more years for an additional $60M or so from Lopez's perspective.  Probably it's spread out evenly so it's about $18M per year for the team.

It's early but it really looks like he's taken the next step forward to being a true #1 starter, which would be a fantastic deal if he stays healthy.

I guess we finally found the monetary price that this front office is willing to pay for pitching, and of course it seems like somewhere between a solid bargain and a steal.

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, DFlow said:

A few notes:

1) Great deal- everyone wins here

2) Right now we are allocating about 30 million to the starting pitchers. Next year with this deal, we will still be well under. It will be interesting to see if we still maintain or acquire another rotational arm.

3) will a new tv deal lead to more payroll? Is this move in response to this? I ask because Falvey has been very risk averse to signing pitching but an influx of funds could mean future payroll increases making this an easier move.

I think probably they pencil in Lopez, Ryan, Paddack, and Ober next year.  The last two maybe aren't guaranteed based on performance, but would seem good bets right now.

For the last spot they would seem to have depth options, including Varland, Woods-Richardson, and Festa.  But based on past years I think they would keep those guys as depth and try to find another veteran for the last spot.

This could certainly be Gray, Mahle, or Maeda.  I would think they will at least make a pass at each of them in that order.  If not one of them, they might be more likely to go the trade route vs free agency.

I don't think they can necessarily count on a big new influx of cash, but it's not like TV and streaming revenue are going to reverse their upward climb, so hopefully they find a little more payroll room each year too.

[hitterscount]

As much as I was down on the front office in December, they have done an incredible job of building a quality team for the foreseeable future.  

Consistent winning begins with starting pitching... this was a great signing that will anchor the staff, along with Ryan, for the next 4-5 years.  The future is looking bright!

[Doctor Gast]

WOW! I was hoping for this since we 1st traded for him. Lopez is on the cusp of something great! Great job, FO & Co. 

[Doctor Gast]

29 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

When's the last time the Twins did an extension in-season?

Yeah. I was about to give up hope.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

As much as I've railed on the front office over the past couple of years, they've been doing a hell of a lot right for the past six months, even if the way they get there is... unexpected.

I clicked "like," though I don't think this is unexpected at all.

By that, I mean that this move fits the pattern of this FO:

• They tend to make moves that fly below the radar in terms of public expectations. If it follows through to fruition, it's a move that comes without a long drawn-out public negotiation.
• They generally seek to move the needle forward incrementally, rather than going whole-hog with the big splash move. They bide their time and move patiently on free agent/extension offers.
• They offer contracts that won't substantially back themselves into a corner.
• They are often sneaking in a little bit more than expected, whether that's getting a couple extra prospects in what's generally been described as an Arraez-for-Lopez trade or tacking on an option year to a free agent contract or extension.
• They make trades for folks that weren't on the radar (Odorizzi, Maeda, etc.).
• They hedge their bets, trading for a guy like Farmer who could be their fallback guy, while also serving as an excellent depth piece when Correa goes down for a bit.

Perhaps most importantly, they recognize that no transaction/decision is made in a vacuum, so they are always looking at the big picture. That means sometimes they will make a move that seems a little odd on the surface, but ends up making considerable sense when looked at in the big picture. 

From my perspective, they've been doing a lot right for way more than the past six months. Have they all worked out? Of course not. But I think we're better off with the collection of moves they've made than we would be if they had completed many of the moves that many on TD have clamored for over the years. 

 

[IndianaTwin]

49 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

BTW: Granted, all through 16 games……

Solano - a plus

Taylor - a plus

P. Lopez - BIG plus

Farmer - a plus

Gallo……not a complete failure, w/risk taken

Bullpen construction - looking good

Let’s take a few breaths before asking for the FO to get fired or resign. Awfully lot of things falling into place!

I suspect I'm going to hammered on this, so I'll say it quietly, but I'll add...

Not dumping Pagan for nothing. -- so far, looking good.

[StormJH1]

Love the deal, and while he probably is out-pacing his long-term performance currently, it seems like it has a reasonable chance of looking like a bargain.  As much as I loved Arraez, I was in favor of this trade from day one, and I think the early performance has shown that he is a legit talent.  Injuries happen to almost every pitcher, so if you could find a position player and SP of like talent, the team getting the position player is going to "win" in a lot of cases just because of injury.  To me, that doesn't matter.  This was the right thing to do, as was the Mahle trade, and the general decision to stockpile competent SP arms.  I probably feel better about our SP depth now than I have since...when?  2010?  2006?

[Brock Beauchamp]

24 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I clicked "like," though I don't think this is unexpected at all.

By that, I mean that this move fits the pattern of this FO:

• They tend to make moves that fly below the radar in terms of public expectations. If it follows through to fruition, it's a move that comes without a long drawn-out public negotiation.
• They generally seek to move the needle forward incrementally, rather than going whole-hog with the big splash move. They bide their time and move patiently on free agent/extension offers.
• They offer contracts that won't substantially back themselves into a corner.
• They are often sneaking in a little bit more than expected, whether that's getting a couple extra prospects in what's generally been described as an Arraez-for-Lopez trade or tacking on an option year to a free agent contract or extension.
• They make trades for folks that weren't on the radar (Odorizzi, Maeda, etc.).
• They hedge their bets, trading for a guy like Farmer who could be their fallback guy, while also serving as an excellent depth piece when Correa goes down for a bit.

Perhaps most importantly, they recognize that no transaction/decision is made in a vacuum, so they are always looking at the big picture. That means sometimes they will make a move that seems a little odd on the surface, but ends up making considerable sense when looked at in the big picture. 

From my perspective, they've been doing a lot right for way more than the past six months. Have they all worked out? Of course not. But I think we're better off with the collection of moves they've made than we would be if they had completed many of the moves that many on TD have clamored for over the years. 

 

Oh, all of this is true but they almost fell into the Correa deal through the weirdest situation I've seen in free agency. It definitely worked out for them but I also can't give them full credit for it.

And the entire offseason really hinged around that move that was half patience, half dumb luck.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This is a terrific move by the Twins.  He had an excellent year last year and so far this year seems to be even better.  Undoubtedly his ERA is going to come back down to Earth and he's going to have a few rough outings also, but Lopez appears to be the best pitcher we've had on the team since J. Santana.  Also, unquestionably, when he has a bad game here or there, he will become the latest target for those fans who believe that a bigger contract must carry with it perfection in all things. 

Welcome Pablo Lopez!  Glad you can stay awhile!

[DJL44]

49 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

For the last spot they would seem to have depth options, including Varland, Woods-Richardson, and Festa.  But based on past years I think they would keep those guys as depth and try to find another veteran for the last spot.

Varland already looks like one of the 5 best options for the rotation. I don't see a reason to stash him in AAA another season.

[Jocko87]

35 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I clicked "like," though I don't think this is unexpected at all.

By that, I mean that this move fits the pattern of this FO:

• They tend to make moves that fly below the radar in terms of public expectations. If it follows through to fruition, it's a move that comes without a long drawn-out public negotiation.
• They generally seek to move the needle forward incrementally, rather than going whole-hog with the big splash move. They bide their time and move patiently on free agent/extension offers.
• They offer contracts that won't substantially back themselves into a corner.
• They are often sneaking in a little bit more than expected, whether that's getting a couple extra prospects in what's generally been described as an Arraez-for-Lopez trade or tacking on an option year to a free agent contract or extension.
• They make trades for folks that weren't on the radar (Odorizzi, Maeda, etc.).
• They hedge their bets, trading for a guy like Farmer who could be their fallback guy, while also serving as an excellent depth piece when Correa goes down for a bit.

Perhaps most importantly, they recognize that no transaction/decision is made in a vacuum, so they are always looking at the big picture. That means sometimes they will make a move that seems a little odd on the surface, but ends up making considerable sense when looked at in the big picture. 

From my perspective, they've been doing a lot right for way more than the past six months. Have they all worked out? Of course not. But I think we're better off with the collection of moves they've made than we would be if they had completed many of the moves that many on TD have clamored for over the years. 

 

Very good summation.  I posted a while back that they are on the cusp of the good luck/good work multiplier and coming on something really good.  They have made a lot of the situations for the good luck as well with the patterns you described. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Does this mean they are buying his final arbitration year plus 3 years?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

When's the last time the Twins did an extension in-season?

This morning..

[Jocko87]

18 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Nice move.  So it appears the starting pitching strategy is to not go for FA pitchers, rather trade prospects/MLB talent for starters that have at least 2-years of control (e.g. Maeda, Gray, Paddack, Mahle, Lopez), monitor them for awhile, then extend them or let the go for a sandwich pick.

Is it cheaper to trade assets and get a MLB starter for 20MM per season than pay no prospects and go the FA route at 30MM per season?  This FO obviously prefers the former strategy rather than the latter.

This was also Falvey's pattern in Cleveland for the most part. 

[2wins87]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Varland already looks like one of the 5 best options for the rotation. I don't see a reason to stash him in AAA another season.

I don't think they need to but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he started next year as the 6th starter like Ober did this year

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

When's the last time the Twins did an extension in-season?

Dobnak? 🙂

[rv78]

All things considered, it is a good move if they can close the deal as it stands. Agree with many that he seems to be the best pitcher the Twins have had in years. Locking him up for the prime years of his career would be a smart move at this point. Unfortunately a contract can never be determined on it's value until the end of it. Also, before we start applauding the FO for their wonderful job of building this team let's see if they can produce a playoff caliber team that actually does something in the playoffs. They have played 1/10th of the 2023 season so far and while some of the players they have brought in have produced some haven't. The last signing of the off-season, Solano has been the biggest surprise. Was it a planned move or just dumb luck he's in a Twins uniform like Correa. I would venture to say had Kirilloff been ready to go Game 1, Solano wouldn't be on the team.

[Jocko87]

16 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, all of this is true but they almost fell into the Correa deal through the weirdest situation I've seen in free agency. It definitely worked out for them but I also can't give them full credit for it.

And the entire offseason really hinged around that move that was half patience, half dumb luck.

I firmly believe that down the road we will get more of the Mets story and it will make the front office look like geniuses.  I would love to have a beer with Falvey and ask him when they figured out what the Mets were actually doing.

Short version, Cohen is a hedge fund/asset guy who likes nothing more than a distressed asset that he can get value on.  He understands you never negotiate with a distressed asset against the open market.  The $315m could have been $400m and it never would have mattered.  They were always going to renegotiate in the due diligence process based on the ankle.  The poison pills we saw in their offers prove it to me.

Plenty of luck involved to be sure but they already deserve a heck of a lot of credit for staying tuned and working it through the holidays.  Nobody would have blamed them if they tuned out and took a long Christmas.  It makes me think they knew something.  There is also plenty that can't be said about the negotiations for quite a while.  Lets just say I'll be watching the Mets and Boras clients closely going forward. 

[StormJH1]

22 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, all of this is true but they almost fell into the Correa deal through the weirdest situation I've seen in free agency. It definitely worked out for them but I also can't give them full credit for it.

And the entire offseason really hinged around that move that was half patience, half dumb luck.

Fair, but I guess you could argue that you earn "luck" by putting yourself in the position in the first place for something to work out.  Like the Mahle thing last year - what if he ripped off 4 or 5 starts like Lopez has had to start this season after he was acquired, and then gotten shut down?  I think that is an entirely plausible thing that could have happened, and fans would have viewed it differently.  He's also back pitching reasonable well now, so time will tell on that move.  But you have try a bunch of stuff, like trading for Mahle AND Pablo Lopez, AND committing $200 million+ to a guy whose ankle may fall off, in order for some of it to work.  (I agree that lost Correa like 10 different ways this offseason before getting him back in the most absurd way imaginable, but he is a Boras client, and our initial offer to him him before the Giants signed him was very competitive and kept us in the discussion).

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, StormJH1 said:

Fair, but I guess you could argue that you earn "luck" by putting yourself in the position in the first place for something to work out.

Absolutely. They deserve credit for staying firm and not wavering but outside forces played a significant role, too.

[Trov]

33 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Nice move.  So it appears the starting pitching strategy is to not go for FA pitchers, rather trade prospects/MLB talent for starters that have at least 2-years of control (e.g. Maeda, Gray, Paddack, Mahle, Lopez), monitor them for awhile, then extend them or let the go for a sandwich pick.

Is it cheaper to trade assets and get a MLB starter for 20MM per season than pay no prospects and go the FA route at 30MM per season?  This FO obviously prefers the former strategy rather than the latter.

Well, the FO has offered FA pitchers deals, but the FA have gone elsewhere.  What we offered only the team and player will truly know.  However, very few FA pitchers really live up to their deals, most after like 2nd year start regressing, injured, or both.  I think getting a guy with control, and in your team you can better look at them and see what you really have in them and if worth extending.  Also, they can get to know you and how they like the organization and if would be willing to take maybe less than what another team might offer.  

What FA pitchers last couple of years would have wished we offered big years and money to?  

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Does this mean they are buying his final arbitration year plus 3 years?

Yes. New money for him starting in ‘24 - his motivation, along with the guaranteed $.