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How did your preseason win prediction go?


wsnydes
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How did your preseason win prediction go?  

44 members have voted

  1. 1. How did your preseason win prediction go?

    • They did worse than I expected.
      27
    • About as I expected.
      15
    • Better than I expected.
      2


Community Leader

Throughout the season, there has been a lot of talk about expectations and where everyone thought this team would go.  Now that the season is over, I'm curious to know how everyone's expectations panned out.

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Before the season, I figured that this team would have a win total in the upper 70s.  That's where they ended up.  

That said, they got there in a much different manner than what I expected.  I thought they'd start slow and gradually improve.  The exact opposite occurred.  They were playing well enough early that I actually raised my prediction about 10 wins.  That's also about the time they started their long slide.  And even then, it took a pitiful last month to get there.

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The other big thing that struck me about this season is that I was quite concerned about the pitching, particularly the depth.  I wasn't worried about the bats at all.  Turns out that the bats are really the biggest reason this team ended up where it did.  The pitching, by and large, did it's part fairly well.

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27 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

The other big thing that struck me about this season is that I was quite concerned about the pitching, particularly the depth.  I wasn't worried about the bats at all.  Turns out that the bats are really the biggest reason this team ended up where it did.  The pitching, by and large, did it's part fairly well.

Me too.

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If I remember right, I thought they would get to around 85 wins, so they were worse than I expected. It was a very disappointing, frustrating, season. I hope things get better next year, but I think a lot has to happen for them to improve. With the FO returning along with Baldelli, I wouldn't make any bets on it. This will be an interesting off season. If things remain pretty much as they are, I think a house cleaning is in order. 

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I thought .500 was their ceiling. I am also a pessimist by nature. Usually this is not helpful in life generally. But as a Twins fan, it has certain advantages. Then came April/May, Hope flickered in the depths. Could it really be wondered I. And against my better judgment, I caved, allowing the lyin' eyes of Mr Optimism to speak of dreams and visions of great things to come. How could it be though, I thought, you know how this will end. Still, I allowed the kindling to burn, and so I adjusted my earlier pessimism, taking on the demeanor of the True Fan who sees through only the misty rose of cheerleader glasses.

Then came everything that followed, and like a rusted out jalopy that once was loved but must be junked,  that false hope was crushed without mercy in the compactor that is a MLB season. There were no mythical fates involved, no baseball Gods pulling strings....just the reality of 162 games showing forth a teams true colors. So color me beige along with the 2022 Twins, a monochrome of mediocrity once again.

FWIW: As for the rest of the division, in the interest of full disclosure to the TD community, I was way off, except for KC. I just did not see the CWS/Detroit suckfest coming, at all. I thought one or the other was winning division. Cleveland I thought was sleepy good with pitching potential, but I thought their ceiling was #3, there to battle with Twins, maybe, maybe reaching 81 wins.....an epic struggle for 3rd in the AL Central. Hey, at least we won that, sort of, so Mr. Optimism gets the last word on this pessimists 2022 season! There is hope after all..................

 

 

 

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I originally was at the 80-85 mark but was "fooled"  by the great early start and revised to 90+ because they were at a point where playing .500 ball would easily get them to 90 wins. I remember a series close to the All Star break when they lost 4 of 5 to Detroit and they were never the same after that. Won't be fooled in 2023.

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I had them at 79 wins so they ended pretty close to that.     Of course they had to tank the last 2 months to get there.   Kind of the reverse of last year when the first 2 months were bad.  I guess that means in 2023 they will stink in June/July.    I had the White Sox winning the division at 96 wins so that was a big miss - I had Cleveland finishing even with the Twins.    

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I had three waves of prediction: 1) Pre-Correa signing 2) Post-Correa signing and 3) Opening Day, Post-Rogers/Paddock Trade. I think I ultimately settled on the predictive line: "A lot of things changed, but their record will stay the same - 73-89."

I was a lot closer than I wanted to be, and a lot closer than I thought I would be in May. By June, I thought I had let preseason pessimism sway me too far, and that I had ignored the promise in the pipeline and the overall impact of Correa. I should have remembered that pessimism can't sway a person too far with this team. Whether it's the late innings, the playoffs or even a mid-season series against a top team, it almost seems like the mission of this Twins team is to disappoint.

But I also though Detroit was going to have a very competitive year and that Baddoo was on the cusp of being an all-star, so clearly I'm more Nostradummy than Nostradamus.

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Considering we had mostly a AAA team for a significant part of the season, I actually think as a group - we overperformed.

IF all our starters had remained healthy (like Cleveland did for the most part), expert projection programs pegged us for what - 85 wins?  To have the rotation, and the outfield we did for significant parts of the seasons, I really feel we won more games than we should have.  Had we had the same opening day roster as we did for game 162 - I would expect a replacement level season.  We exceeded that.

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As best as I recall I predicted .500, they did worse. Although for the first time in my life, and I have been a Twins fan since day one here, I called the whole division right. Had the East winners right also since I pick the Yankees every year. Picked the Astros also, of course both those picks were no brainers. I had Red Sox, Toronto, and Chicago in playoffs. No way did I think Rays or Seattle would have the years they had..

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I had two predictions Pre Gray and Correa and Post Gray and Correa.

Pre- They couldn't be worse than 2021 but wasn't sure they were going to be that much better. But five games should have been easily enough to do without Colome  between 78 - 80 wins.

Post - Both guys should be able to add 3 wins. So 84 - 86 wins and maybe a few more by adding at the deadline.

So the ended about where I originally thought minus spending 35 million, trading away a first round pick, Steer (3rd round), Hajjar (2nd round), Povich (3rd round) , CES (4th round) and Gipson-Long (6th round pick).

That seems like a huge price to pay for just adding 5 wins from the horrible previous year. 

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I had them predicted for 78 wins and third place. I just didn't expect them to fall down to get there. Last spring I wasn't sure if they could climb past both Detroit and Kansas City.

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I had them pegged for low 80s wins. It's hard to say whether they underperformed that or not. I think a fully healthy Twins team would've ended up with low 80s wins in 2022, but the AAA Twins of September dropped them below. I agree with others who have said this is not how they expected the team to end up with their current record. I expected a slower start that picked up as Miranda, Lewis, Martin, and some arms started taking jobs from the lesser spot holding vets of the roster. That is not exactly how things went down.

If you told me before the season that the IL would end up looking how it did for the end of the season I don't think I would've expected them to have a record any better than this. But, technically, their record was worse than I'd predicted so I voted "they did worse than I expected."

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I didn't put a W/L on my thoughts. But, I was very optimistic because I felt we had finally achieved decent Starting pitching depth. 

Just did not expect the offense to crater like it did down the stretch run. It's a lot to be needing Cave, Celestino, Kepler to bring you home. I did not see that coming. 

I will be optimistic once again next year. I've already decided. 

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4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

While there were scenarios where things could break right and we could win the Central, I figured the lack of pitching would doom us and we'd finish below .500 again. 

Well, you were right. The pitching was indeed bad. 

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