Article: Kicking the Tires on Kikuchi

[Nick Nelson]

For a second consecutive offseason, the Minnesota Twins appear legitimately interested in the top available talent from Japan. And for a second consecutive offseason, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that player will wind up elsewhere.

 

But perhaps Minnesota will be luckier with Yusei Kikuchi than they were a year ago with Shohei Ohtani. If they can find a way to land the prized left-hander, it'd be a game-changer in their efforts to bolster the pitching staff.Back in 2009, Kikuchi was a prep phenom for Hanamaki Higashi HS, touching the mid-90s with his fastball as a teenager. As he nearly became the first Japanese player ever to bypass the NPB draft and enter MLB directly out of high school, one of the teams courting him was the Texas Rangers, reportedly offering $7 million.

 

Thad Levine was assistant general manager for the Rangers as they ardently pursued Kikuchi, who opted to remain in Japan at the time. He was also their assistant GM a few years later when they pulled off the landmark Yu Darvish signing.

 

Levine was Minnesota's GM last offseason when Ohtani – a generational two-way talent out of Japan – became available. At the time, Levine made no secret of his desire to land Ohtani, but his Twins didn't make the final cut. Ohtani ended up having a sensational rookie season for the Angels.

 

Now, we turn our attention to Kikuchi. Let's be clear: Ohtani he is not (though they did attend the high school). Kikuchi's upside doesn't approach that of Ohtani as a pitcher, and hitting isn't even part of the equation. But the 27-year-old lefty offers a quality arm that would fit snugly within Minnesota's long-term strategy.

 

"VERY INTERESTED"

La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune tweeted on Friday that the Twins "like Kikuchi and have done a deep dive on him." A day later, the perpetually plugged in Darren Wolfson of KSTP added that the team is "very interested," and that Kikuchi has been scouted extensively by some of the organization's top evaluators.

 

It isn't hard to see why Kikuchi would be of great interest to the Twins. First of all, they have plenty of money to spend. Secondly, they could use another starter – ideally a younger one who can pair with Jose Berrios as entrenched rotation fixtures.

 

There is much to like about Kikuchi, who owns a 2.81 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in around 1,000 NPB innings. While it's tempting to draw up glitzy Ohtani comparisons, the more plausible comp is right-hander Miles Mikolas.

 

Mikolas was a former seventh-round draft pick of the Padres who headed to Japan to re-establish himself after washing out of affiliated ball in his mid-20s. During his time with the Yomiuri Giants, he posted numbers that were similar in many ways to Kikuchi with the Saitama Seibu Lions – very strong, but not out-of-this-world overpowering or dominant. Last winter, Mikolas sought to return to the majors at age 28.

 

The Cardinals signed him to a two-year deal worth $15.5 million, and boy has that investment paid off. Mikolas was phenomenal in 2018, finishing 18-4 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 200 innings. He finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting.

 

The two aren't mirror images by any means. Mikolas has superior command, which was his calling card during a stellar reintroduction to the majors. But Kikuchi probably has the better repertoire, highlighted by a swing-and-miss slider. And he's a lefty.

 

Mikolas is an encouraging precedent, both in terms of process and results. The Cards were able to add him cheaply, because of the inherent question marks in translating performance from a foreign league, but he was more than up to the task. Kikuchi will require more to sign than Mikolas, but he'll still be far cheaper than, say, Patrick Corbin (who is incidentally a pretty similar pitcher in the FB/SL southpaw mold).

 

UPHILL BATTLE

So the Twins are interested in Kikuchi. Why wouldn't they be? But this brings us to the core issue at hand: so is almost every other team in the majors. And as was the case with Ohtani, the Twins only have so much capacity in their efforts to woo him.

 

Granted, this isn't nearly the same type of scenario that led to Los Angeles committing just $23 million last year to acquire Ohtani, who potential earnings were capped. Changes in the posting system, along with Kikuchi's heightened service time, mean that he'll be an unrestricted free agent in the traditional sense, with the Saitama Seibu Lions receiving a percentage of his eventual contract as a release fee.

 

This actually works to the Twins' benefit. Going against big-market clubs and West Coast teams, they have some built-in disadvantages when it comes to recruiting talent out of Asia, before you even start talking about budget and resources. This ultimately doomed them in their pursuit of Ohtani. But with money being more of a differentiating factor, they have leverage to negotiate. If Minnesota's extensive scouting has created a strong confidence in Kikuchi's outlook, there's no reason the Twins can't hang with any other team in the bidding. They're still about $50 million short of matching their 2018 Opening Day payroll at present.

 

But are they going to be able to outbid and outpitch every other big slugger in this race? The Yankees are known to be interested, and may be motivated after coming up short on Corbin. Kikuchi has been linked to the Padres, Dodgers and Mariners. Giants reporter Henry Schulman reported earlier this month that San Francisco "might be his first choice."

 

 

Here's one wild card in this whole situation: Kikuchi is represented by Scott Boras. In one sense that's scary, since Boras is a notoriously tough negotiator and is known for brokering some of the biggest contracts in MLB history. But on the other hand, Boras also reps two of Minnesota's most integral long-term pieces: Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. Those two would hopefully slot in alongside Kikuchi within the next few years.

 

Is this advantageous in any way? I have no clue. But it's at least interesting to note.

 

THE CLOCK IS TICKING

Kikuchi was posted by the Seibu Lions on December 4th, and his 30-day window for open negotiations will end on January 2nd, so we'll have clarity on the lefty's future within 10 days. La Velle noted, in his tweet on the team's interest, that the Twins "think they won’t be one of the favorites to land him," which is unsurprising. But by all accounts, it looks like they are earnestly trying.

 

If the money is there, and Kikuchi buys into Minnesota's vision of a perennial contender at Target Field fueled by fellow Boras clients Lewis and Kirilloff? Who knows. One thing's for sure: It'd be the kind of splashy addition this fan base could use.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

My second most coveted FA this year, but he's going to the Dodgers, Giants, or Mariners, I'd bet. 

[TheLeviathan]

For wise reasons, these players don't consider teams other than the West Coast.

 

But, hey!  We're kicking tires!

[USAFChief]

"Strong interest?"

 

Heh.

[Mike Sixel]

 

"Strong interest?"

Heh.

 

I have strong interest in winning the lottery......

[Vanimal46]

I bet he won't take a 1 year deal, so the Twins are out.

[mikelink45]

This is where the Twins can turn the off season around.  But why are we at December 23 before the interest is demonstrated.  Why didn't we jump in quick and get their attention?  The West Coast and New York are better known in Japan than Minnesota, but remember that Vice President Mondale has also been an ambassador to Japan.  

 

I would like to think we were really in on this player, but my instinct is the same as the others who have posted here.  Interest does not match action.

[ChrisKnutson]

I’d rather we sign Keuchel, another Boras client, who actually has a (solid) track record in the MLB (unlike Kikuchi), plus WS experience (and a ring to show for it). Besides, building a relationship (sucking up) with Mr. Boras wouldn’t be such a bad thing considering Lewis and Kirilloff are represented by him as well, could really help us out in the long term when the time comes for extensions for those two. Unfortunately, the FO is deciding to be cheap this offseason, despite all the quality options available, so the likelihood of us signing either are extremely low.

[ashbury]

I have strong interest in winning the lottery......

/thread

[DocBauer]

For reasons that seem obvious based on past history, I doubt the Twins are in play here, which is unfortunate. Especially considering Levine's past history in regard to Asian players.

 

To me, it's a shame, because the Midwestern lifestyle could appeal to an individual player who maybe doesn't need, want or seek all the bright lights and would love to play half his games in one of the best ballparks in all of MLB.

 

I'm still glad the Twins at least took a shot at Ohtani. I'm glad they took a real shot at Darvish, and I don't blame them for forgoing a 6th year, though I have mixed feelings about the opt out option. (I still believe it was the 6th year that sealed the deal there for the Cubs). I believe the Twins should try however, and keep trying. Whether it be Kukichi or the next guy up, you will get one of these guys eventually.

[bird]

Ten comments in and no one has yet mentioned the incontrovertible fact that the Twins lowballed him.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ten comments in and no one has yet mentioned the incontrovertible fact that the Twins lowballed him.

What do you think a fair price would be?

[bird]

 

What do you think a fair price would be?

 

 

$17.00 per hour.

[Rosterman]

Well, since Royce and Alex are still Twins for the next 7-9 years more of less. Would you go 4 with an option, or 5 years. Would you spend $100 million to tie him to the Twins (what can you give as an upfront bonus compared to yearly payouts)?

[Riverbrian]

[Blake]

 

I thought we agreed never to let that picture out in public.

 

I'm telling mom!

[Aerodeliria]

I have seen Kikuchi pitch this year (he had some shoulder issues at the start of the year, which may have contributed to his less-than-stellar numbers by his own standards). The one game I watched he was basically unhittable (he gave up a scratch single in the 7th or 8th inning as I recall). The other game he seemed a bit off. Like most Japanese pitchers, he uses junk (i.e., splitter) to offset his fastball.

 

His ERA was up this year from previous years, but in 2017, I thought he was the best pitcher in the league even though he didn't win the Eiji Sawamura Award (the Japanese equivalent to the Cy Young). If he returned to 2017 form, he would be a very good catch. Another benefit is that he (like most Japanese starters) is used to putting in a lot of innings.  He gives up less than one home run per nine innings; that number would likely be elevated in the US, but not significantly IMHO (Japanese parks are more favorable to hitters).

 

IMHO, his demeanor seems more like Matsuzaka than Tanaka or Ohtani--neither that kind of smoldering fire that Tanaka shows nor that happy go lucky attitude of Ohtani--somewhere between the two, but very, very competitive.

 

Of course, I want the Twins to have a Japanese player and Kikuchi is another chance for that to happen (partly because of my own self-interest--here in Japan, the Twins only appear on TV when they are facing Japanese pitchers like Ohtani or Tanaka). In 2018, I watched maybe a dozen Angels' games and probably two or three Yankees' games and I think one Cubs' game, essentially meaning that I watched three Twins' games.

 

I think it highly unlikely that the Twins could land him, but why not try?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I wonder if the extensive scouting was done by any of the same scouts who scouted Nishi?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I wonder if the extensive scouting was done by any of the same scouts who scouted Nishi?

please tell me they went the same way as Bill Smith

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I have seen Kikuchi pitch this year (he had some shoulder issues at the start of the year, which may have contributed to his less-than-stellar numbers by his own standards). The one game I watched he was basically unhittable (he gave up a scratch single in the 7th or 8th inning as I recall). The other game he seemed a bit off. Like most Japanese pitchers, he uses junk (i.e., splitter) to offset his fastball.

 

His ERA was up this year from previous years, but in 2017, I thought he was the best pitcher in the league even though he didn't win the Eiji Sawamura Award (the Japanese equivalent to the Cy Young). If he returned to 2017 form, he would be a very good catch. Another benefit is that he (like most Japanese starters) is used to putting in a lot of innings.  He gives up less than one home run per nine innings; that number would likely be elevated in the US, but not significantly IMHO (Japanese parks are more favorable to hitters).

 

IMHO, his demeanor seems more like Matsuzaka than Tanaka or Ohtani--neither that kind of smoldering fire that Tanaka shows nor that happy go lucky attitude of Ohtani--somewhere between the two, but very, very competitive.

 

Of course, I want the Twins to have a Japanese player and Kikuchi is another chance for that to happen (partly because of my own self-interest--here in Japan, the Twins only appear on TV when they are facing Japanese pitchers like Ohtani or Tanaka). In 2018, I watched maybe a dozen Angels' games and probably two or three Yankees' games and I think one Cubs' game, essentially meaning that I watched three Twins' games.

 

I think it highly unlikely that the Twins could land him, but why not try?

Great post. Wish it would have been higher in the thread.

 

Reading Dice K's wiki page said the baseballs in Japan are a little smaller. That might concern me if Kikuchi is unable to find the grip on the MLB baseball. Eventually he would but at what cost.

[Aerodeliria]

 

I wonder if the extensive scouting was done by any of the same scouts who scouted Nishi?

The problem with Nishi is that they based everything on one year. He was a mediocre hitter except for the one outlier. Kikuchi has a track record.

[Don Walcott]

We have money to spend. Kikuchi is in his prime, and likely wants to maximize his value. I say we go for it.

[Dantes929]

 

I bet he won't take a 1 year deal, so the Twins are out.

Good news is he will take a one year deal with the Twins.   Bad news is the one year will be 2029.

[Minny505]

MSP is one of the few non-west coast airports to have daily direct flights to and from Tokyo. That should eliminate that hurdle.

 

Now to convince him that the weather really isn't THAT rough April, May September and October...

[Mr. Brooks]

I wonder if the extensive scouting was done by any of the same scouts who scouted Nishi?

The guy who scouted Nishioka is currently suing the Twins for age discrimination.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

The guy who scouted Nishioka is currently suing the Twins for age discrimination.

The signing of Nishi is the Twins' defense to the law suit.

[Doctor Wu]

 

Good news is he will take a one year deal with the Twins.   Bad news is the one year will be 2029.

Sad to say, but this could be the most accurate post on this subject thus far.

[howieramone2]

 

I’d rather we sign Keuchel, another Boras client, who actually has a (solid) track record in the MLB (unlike Kikuchi), plus WS experience (and a ring to show for it). Besides, building a relationship (sucking up) with Mr. Boras wouldn’t be such a bad thing considering Lewis and Kirilloff are represented by him as well, could really help us out in the long term when the time comes for extensions for those two. Unfortunately, the FO is deciding to be cheap this offseason, despite all the quality options available, so the likelihood of us signing either are extremely low.

I see very few quality options. Too many still confuse free agency with Christmas, which it hasn't been for years. Free agency is the market of last resort for most teams.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I see very few quality options. Too many still confuse free agency with Christmas, which it hasn't been for years. Free agency is the market of last resort for most teams.

Kikuchi would be a quality option.

[jmlease1]

I think it's great for the Twins to see what they can do on Kikuchi. What do we think the contract would have to look like to get him here (not seeing a lot of numbers here).

 

You have to assume it'd be north of what Mikolas got, right? Is he going to want to go a shorter term to a) see if he likes it in the US, and set himself up for a really big, Darvish-style deal? or is it going to be longer out the gate? (bigger risk for everyone: the teams takes on risk not being certain how he'll translate to MLB, he takes risk on being underpaid not knowing how he'll translate to MLB...)

 

3 years, $42M?  2 years, $30M? More? less?

 

I'm definitely interested: LHP who should be hitting his prime and could fit in well with Berrios and could easily be better than Gibson. (that's what I want for starting pitching for the Twins: better than Gibson) Rotation of Berrios, Kikuchi, Gibson, Pineda, and Odorizzi seems pretty solid. Maybe Romero goes to the 'pen this season to work on his offerings and be a power arms who can go 2-3 innings? Gonsalves and Stewart are the next dudes up for the inevitable injury?

 

He could be a great fit. Let's take a run at it.