Trading Dozier Redux

[Lonestar]

Brian Dozier's slash stats are up to .261/.344/.467.  His OPS is .811, up from .741 when we discontinued the Will Brian Dozier's Contract Turn Into An Asset? thread.  Brian just might be our All-Star representative.  What would be a fair trade  -- that is, one both teams would make and you wouldn't complain about?

 

FWIW, the Blue Jays and Royals appear to be the two buyers this year. 

Last year the Royals gave up Sean Manaea and Aaron Brooks for 2+ months of Ben Zobrist.

There appears to be no ace on the market this year.

[Vanimal46]

A 2-3 prospect package works for me. All I would ask is one of them is a top 100 prospect, preferably a C or SP. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would expect BD to bring home a nice haul, especially given his resurgence.  I've waffled back and forth on this, but a 2B with a >.800 OPS and above average defense is worth a lot, especially with 2+ years of cheap control.  I'd think a top 100 prospect would be the starting point here.  I might have been willing to negotiate down a few weeks ago, but he's hitting quite well and I'd want value for him.  Given the team's situation and long term outlook, he really doesn't fit going forward, so a trade makes sense... but no t a dump just to make room for Polanco.

[Rosterman]

You do have the luxury of NOT trading him for the heck of it. So he is one on the players the Twins (at least today) could get more for rather than less. If he stays at his current output, he will be a valuable off-season tradechip, still, with his two years of control.

 

But longterm, you really don't want to go into next season and see a dip in production. If he doesn't dip and does elsewhere, more power to Brian.

 

But I don't see him being the second baseman of 2019 and beyond. So now you look for trading him for players that MIGHT be able to contribute to the Twins in 2018 and beyond. Possibly 2-3 strong prospects.

[howieramone2]

Very unlikely TR will trade anyone in position to help win in 2016, with the exception of Plouffe. Any return in a trade will need to help us in 2016, or the very latest 2017.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Dozier's value is at it's peak so if we want to trade him do it now before he falls back to earth with his numbers. Also if the Twins could throw Rickey Nolasco in too that would be great (so Jose Berrios can take his spot in the rotation).

[Lonestar]

 

Very unlikely TR will trade anyone in position to help win in 2016, with the exception of Plouffe. Any return in a trade will need to help us in 2016, or the very latest 2017.

I did not ask what would Terry Ryan do?

[Lonestar]

 

Dozier's value is at it's peak so if we want to trade him do it now before he falls back to earth with his numbers. Also if the Twins could throw Rickey Nolasco in too that would be great (so Jose Berrios can take his spot in the rotation).

It would be better to eat Nolasco's contract than to throw it in.   A better return

[Vanimal46]

Very unlikely TR will trade anyone in position to help win in 2016, with the exception of Plouffe. Any return in a trade will need to help us in 2016, or the very latest 2017.

Why would the return need to help the team in 2016? This is a lost season.

[howieramone2]

 

Why would the return need to help the team in 2016? This is a lost season.

The fan board threw in the towel, at One Twins Way they are looking to get back to the success they had in 2015. They will not embark on a young movement, they will not attempt to trade all the board scapegoats, nor do they want the youngest team in baseball. I listen to Inside Twins every Sunday morning.

[Mike Sixel]

First, thanks for a thread about what we would do, and not the FO, there are plenty of those......

 

I flip flop on what to do with Dozier. 

 

Keep him:

He could be part of a competitive team in 2-4 years.

They need some veterans at that time, maybe.

He's kind of good

No idea if Polanco is good or not

tired of watching a bad team

 

Trade him:

Not SUPER likely to be good when the team is

He bunts, bizarrely

He can return 1-3 legit prospects, that could be good when the team is good

I find his streakiness annoying

 

[TheLeviathan]

Trade him!

[Everyday Eddy]

 

The fan board threw in the towel, at One Twins Way they are looking to get back to the success they had in 2015. They will not embark on a young movement, they will not attempt to trade all the board scapegoats, nor do they want the youngest team in baseball. I listen to Inside Twins every Sunday morning.

 

Since Inside Twins on Sunday mornings provides anything.    It's Terry saying the same stuff he's said for years

[howieramone2]

 

Since Inside Twins on Sunday mornings provides anything.    It's Terry saying the same stuff he's said for years

You can get your information from the fan board, or from Terry Ryan. Let each member make their own decision.

[jorgenswest]

Players don't ride the roller coaster of value.

 

His value hasn't suddenly changed. He is a slightly above average 2B in the prime of his career. If a team has a bottom quartile 2B, he is a significant upgrade. Reyes is of the Market. Gourriel can play 2B. He won't have a prospect cost but will have a contract commitment greater than Dozier's.

 

His return will really depend on the market. What other potential 2Bs are available? Which teams don't have a reasonable in house alternative? I suspect the Jays are content with the return of Travis. The Mets are going to give Reyes a shot. The Royals have Merrifield playing well right now. Gourriel hasn't signed yet.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

You can get your information from the fan board, or from Terry Ryan. Let each member make their own decision.

 

Or you can use multiple mediums to come to conclusions about what is actual reality instead of taking the GM of a bad team's word as gospel

[Craig Arko]

 

Or you can use multiple mediums to come to conclusions about what is actual reality instead of taking the GM of a bad team's word as gospel

That's a lot of seances.

[DocBauer]

I'm kind of with Mike on this one.

 

Keep him: He's good enough and young enough to be part of the rebuild and provide a veteran presence.

 

Keep him 2: Play Polanco as much as you can the second half and trade Dozier during the offseason if you're feeling good about Polanco.

 

Trade him: Find a team in a race that needs him, values him, and sees the friendly contract. I agree a top 100 prospect and at least one more solid addition. A catcher and SP would be ideal.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I really believe the best thing for the team would be to trade him now, while he is in on one of his hot streaks. I don't believe he is really that good defensively, and will get worse with age. His bat is good now, but still goes on big slumps, but pull hitters die fast and he is the just barely over the fence kind of pull hitter. So, he might stay hot for a while, but his ceiling keeps lowering and so does his floor. 

 

However, if you look at the standings, almost all of the teams in the race are sitting pretty good at 2B. Its the teams out of the race with 2B needs. That doesn't look good for us, so we might just have to keep him. He's a pretty good player right now, but likely to continue to decline until its over, but if there is no market for 2b then just keep him.

[Brandon]

I think the tradeables would be Plouffe, Nunez, either Nolasco or Santana.  you want to keep one starter who is capable of pitching 200 innings.  Santana seems to have more value on the trade market and we can get rid of Nolasco at the end of next season so I would probably trade Santana over Nolasco. 

 

I would keep dozier as we do need some veterans to hang around and he seems to be one they can market around.  Though I would listen for a good deal since we do have Polanco who I think is a future big leaguer. 

[d-mac]

 

Very unlikely TR will trade anyone in position to help win in 2016, with the exception of Plouffe. Any return in a trade will need to help us in 2016, or the very latest 2017.

 

Hi Terry!

[Blackjack]

 

You can get your information from the fan board, or from Terry Ryan. Let each member make their own decision.

I agree, I like to listen to Inside Twins every Sunday, its definitely worth a listen to. You get a lot of good info about why something was done, for example why they demoted Berrios so fast. Of course he's going to be tight lipped about future moves but its more informative than the idle chatter on the internet.

 

Does anybody know, is there a podcast of the show if you miss it??

 

On a related note, I like listening to Paul Molitor's show on Sunday morning too. Its an easy listen and pretty informative.

[Everyday Eddy]

 

That's a lot of seances.

 

Was quite challenging to figure out my own wording

[d-mac]

 

The fan board threw in the towel, at One Twins Way they are looking to get back to the success they had in 2015. They will not embark on a young movement, they will not attempt to trade all the board scapegoats, nor do they want the youngest team in baseball. I listen to Inside Twins every Sunday morning.

 

Well isn't that special! *Church Lady Voice*

[S.]

 

The fan board threw in the towel, at One Twins Way they are looking to get back to the success they had in 2015. 

Ah, yes, the great success of missing the playoffs. Lucky for them, we'll be just as successful on that front this year.

[scottz]

I think they should trade Dozier if we get a sweet deal offered, but I don't know if they want to trade him. He has seemingly righted himself, is a general fan favorite (my mom and sisters love him, for example), and has a good contract for his production, assuming it continues like it has since they sat him for 2 days.

Assuming they aren't trading him, they should be actively packaging Polanco right now. It won't be long before Polanco out of options and we will find ourselves in a situation where he will be traded for $45,000 or a PTBNL, because if we don't trade him, the situation will dictate that we would otherwise lose Danny Santana.

 

Edit - Author note: I like Polanco as much as I liked Arcia. I don't want him traded.

[jimmer]

 

Ah, yes, the great success of missing the playoffs. Lucky for them, we'll be just as successful on that front this year.

If not making the playoffs is a success, we've been very successful this decade. Wouldn't surprise me if we go the whole decade succeeding :-)

 

In any event, 83-79 season, heck it was great success.  They won about 10 more games than the talent on the team should have produced. And it's not like the stats didn't show this to be the case (and that this season kind of cements that), but success was had.  Two games over .500 missing the second wild card by 3 games! :-)

[Winston Smith]

I see only 2 teams that could really need help at 2B the Blue Jays and the Cards. Maybe the Yankees but they have Castro with a bad contract for a few more years. The Blue Jays would seem like the best fit but I'm not sure what they have in the minors worth Dozier.

[Dr. Evil]

Hmmmm, 5 month slump followed by short hot streak. Yea, I think I trade him. It's not like he went cold for a few weeks. What we get in return + Polanco = net gain.

[Thrylos]

 

You do have the luxury of NOT trading him for the heck of it.

 

No you don't.  He is blocking Polanco who is better right now, and you got to sell when he is hot.  Get max value, before it drops.

 

Same with Suzuki and his axe, btw