Trading Dozier Redux

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I agree, I like to listen to Inside Twins every Sunday, its definitely worth a listen to. You get a lot of good info about why something was done, for example why they demoted Berrios so fast. Of course he's going to be tight lipped about future moves but its more informative than the idle chatter on the internet.

 

Does anybody know, is there a podcast of the show if you miss it??

 

On a related note, I like listening to Paul Molitor's show on Sunday morning too. Its an easy listen and pretty informative.

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/fan_forum/inside_twins_show.jsp

[Blackjack]

 

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/fan_forum/inside_twins_show.jsp

Thanks!!! I book marked it!!

[SwainZag]

 

No you don't.  He is blocking Polanco who is better right now, and you got to sell when he is hot.  Get max value, before it drops.

 

Same with Suzuki and his axe, btw

 

Polanco is better than who right now?  Even with Dozier's early season slump he is still 7th in WAR for all 2nd basemen since the beginning of the 2015 season.  I like Polanco and would like to see what he can do, but is he not better than Brian Dozier.  

 

 

[jorgenswest]

I see only 2 teams that could really need help at 2B the Blue Jays and the Cards. Maybe the Yankees but they have Castro with a bad contract for a few more years. The Blue Jays would seem like the best fit but I'm not sure what they have in the minors worth Dozier.

I don't think the Blue Jays would trade their current 2B straight up for Dozier. Travis is 25. He has a career OPS of .835. He is a better defensive player. He isn't even up for arbitration until 2018.

 

With the return of Peralta, the Cardinals are playing Carpenter and his .999 OPS at 2B. Behind Carpenter, Peralta and Diaz, they have Garcia, Wong and Gyorko. The Cardinals have greater needs.

 

I don't think either of these teams would be motivated to go after Dozier and give up a significant return.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I see only 2 teams that could really need help at 2B the Blue Jays and the Cards. Maybe the Yankees but they have Castro with a bad contract for a few more years. The Blue Jays would seem like the best fit but I'm not sure what they have in the minors worth Dozier.

I think the Cards are committed to Carpenter back at 2B, and he'd be considered a top tier player, and better than Dozier. Blue Jays might be convinced to go all-in, but D. Travis is young and talented, so I think they are probably not too concerned at 2B...unless they didn't have to give up much.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Also, BD hitting in the #4 spot is perfect with his OBP/HR ability...he either gets to bat with someone on base in the 1st inning, or, leadoff the second inning. He is a great fit there. 

[blindeke]

Trading Dozier this summer would be the kind of thing a smart team would do.

 

Which is to say, they probably won't do it.

[wsnydes]

 

No you don't.  He is blocking Polanco who is better right now, and you got to sell when he is hot.  Get max value, before it drops.

 

Same with Suzuki and his axe, btw

I'd definitely rather see them do that, but they aren't in a position where they should give him away.  If they get a decent offer, then sure, pull the trigger.

[Brandon Warne]

I'm iffy on moving him. Do you move him AND Nunez? Do you move one or the other? Because I can't envision a scenario where you move both.

 

That leaves you with an infield of Polanco-Escobar-Sano, and a backup plan of.....Danny Santana? Engelb Vielma? James Beresford? 

 

That won't work. 

[wsnydes]

 

I'm iffy on moving him. Do you move him AND Nunez? Do you move one or the other? Because I can't envision a scenario where you move both.

 

That leaves you with an infield of Polanco-Escobar-Sano, and a backup plan of.....Danny Santana? Engelb Vielma? James Beresford? 

 

That won't work. 

I'd move both if I could.  The backup plan in my view would be Beresford unless they got a mIF in one of the deals (which I would find doubtful).  I'm more concerned about winning starting next year than this year so I wouldn't even be opposed to Santana.  I'd agree that it would suck, but it's not like this team is going anywhere anyway.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I'd move both if I could.  The backup plan in my view would be Beresford unless they got a mIF in one of the deals (which I would find doubtful).  I'm more concerned about winning starting next year than this year so I wouldn't even be opposed to Santana.  I'd agree that it would suck, but it's not like this team is going anywhere anyway.

 

That's sort of my point though, how does moving Dozier and Nunez make you more likely to win next year? I ask that as someone who really, really likes Polanco and frequently advocates for Escobar as well. 

[Brandon Warne]

I should say how does that middle infield arrangement make you more likely to win next year? I mean, if it brings back a really good catcher for next year -- can't imagine so but willing to be wrong -- or a good starting pitcher, well, you might be onto something then. 

[wsnydes]

 

That's sort of my point though, how does moving Dozier and Nunez make you more likely to win next year? I ask that as someone who really, really likes Polanco and frequently advocates for Escobar as well. 

It may not, and that's a fair point.  It's not as though this team is likely to compete next year either, so signing a cheap veteran or a waiver wire guy as a backup in the offseason would be fine too.  This is assuming that Plouffe is also dealt of course.  Best case scenario, that guy plays well enough that he could be dealt as well.

 

Perhaps the better wording would be "down the road" as opposed to next year.  I don't see Dozier as a piece of the puzzle by the time this team should be a legitimate contender.  Giving that playing time to Polanco instead, IMO, is the wiser move long term.  I'm less concerned about the near term.

[Brandon Warne]

 

It may not, and that's a fair point.  It's not as though this team is likely to compete next year either, so signing a cheap veteran or a waiver wire guy as a backup in the offseason would be fine too.  This is assuming that Plouffe is also dealt of course.  Best case scenario, that guy plays well enough that he could be dealt as well.

 

Dang though, that's some kind of turnover. Trading your starting 2B-3B and SS in the same month? I'm not saying it's wrong or right. It'd just be....unprecedented?

[wsnydes]

 

Dang though, that's some kind of turnover. Trading your starting 2B-3B and SS in the same month? I'm not saying it's wrong or right. It'd just be....unprecedented?

I know, but I'm at the point where getting Polanco PT is a priority.  Since he's out of options, I need to see what I have in him.  If someone will give me pieces that I can use to get better faster and free up that playing time, I do it.  Nunez and Plouffe are "expendable" in that regard.  Escobar plays solid enough SS that i'm not overly worried about it.  He's not a SS on a contending team, but this team isn't contending now so that's moot.  

 

You are correct though.  It's extreme.  Considering where this team is and has been, it's definitely something needs to be considered IMHO.

[Brandon Warne]

I have no issue with extreme. I just think Polanco is a guy I want to force my hand rather than vice versa. I love his approach though. He'll play in the league for a long time. 

[awinter]

 

No you don't.  He is blocking Polanco who is better right now, and you got to sell when he is hot.  Get max value, before it drops.

I agree that the Twins should try trading Dozier when his value is at his peak. His recent performance certainly has hit a peak, but I don't think his trade value has actually gone up. Dozier has proven to be a streaky hitter and every other team should recognize that. With his history, he needs to put together a solid 4 month (or more) stretch. That might get him past his previous peak value, which was last year's all-star break.

 

That said, I would start shopping him with the understanding that he's not at peak market value, but a team could get desperate and offer an above market return.

[Brandon Warne]

Jorge Polanco is not -- by any stretch of the imagination -- "better" than Brian Dozier right now. No way.

[wsnydes]

 

I have no issue with extreme. I just think Polanco is a guy I want to force my hand rather than vice versa. I love his approach though. He'll play in the league for a long time. 

I think I'm with you there.  It still bothers me that he got so little field time when he was up here and when Dozier couldn't hit a beach ball.  I wish we had more to go from at the MLB level since the team exhausted his options while learning nothing.  There is definitely risk there.  I'm not sure he has anything really left to prove at AAA though.

 

I don't really want them to give Dozier away.  I think that's a luxury they have, but if a reasonable return comes calling I would pull the trigger.  I really don't think it will happen, but wouldn't be shocked if it did either.

[Brandon Warne]

Dozier is a luxury in two senses: he's a solid player on a ridiculously good contract. It's almost Denard Span 2.o. Can't throw that away. 

[leopoty]

I would trade Dozier or Polanco, whichever gets me the best value. 

[ashbury]

I would trade Dozier or Polanco, whichever gets me the best value. 

I trade away whichever gets me the least value. Unless my own scouts tell me the other team is crazy. Because, I am in talent acquisition mode, not talent distribution mode.

 

Trading the best among options is how we gave up on Garza instead of Slowey or Blackburn. A smart team offered more for Garza, and we snapped it up, cackling all the way home at our good fortune.

 

I also don't need to make it a one for one trade. I trade the less valuable second baseman, plus a pitching prospect I'm not totally in love with, for a pitching prospect I do love, if one is made available to me by a team in need at second. Or I send Turner plus the second baseman for a stud catcher, if that other team likes Turner well enough and needs help at 2B. Et cetera. The second baseman has to be the key to the trade for the other team, since that's our surplus, but then we sweeten the deal at the position the other team's giving up, plus perhaps another prospect in the 20s on our ranking.

[ashbury]

 I like Polanco and would like to see what he can do, but is he not better than Brian Dozier.  

This has come up several times from several posters, and IMO misses the point. I don't think anyone is saying Polanco is better than Dozier at the moment, and it's fair to question even whether his ceiling is as high as Dozier is at now or will remain for a few more seasons.

 

The right question to me is

 Dozier

versus

 Polanco + whatever we get in return for Dozier

 

If trading Dozier (plus whatever prospects I would have to package alongside) were to net us a major league ready pitcher, we would survive whatever dropoff at 2B resulted. Ditto for a real upgrade at catcher, assuming my scouts aren't sticking to their guns about Murphy profiling as better than a backup at this point.

 

I realize a stud starting pitcher doesn't grow on trees, and isn't willingly parted with by any team. Good trades are hard to put together - anyone can slap together two pitching prospects and get someone's bullpen piece. It's what I would focus on, anyway, and I would look at Dozier as the centerpiece for a team in need, plus any and all prospects outside of my top several in order to pry loose what I want. We have quantity in the farm system, we need to upgrade to quality with two or three key trades. Now I'm repeating myself.

 

Here's a non-repeat: it comes down to trusting your own scouting and your own talent evaluation; if that trust isn't justified then you are engaging in Brownian motion, and in the long haul will come out behind. This is supposed to be Terry Ryan's strength as the old scouting director. I challenge Terry to close his career with a bang, by making some trades his successor will value.

[Mr. Brooks]

That's sort of my point though, how does moving Dozier and Nunez make you more likely to win next year? I ask that as someone who really, really likes Polanco and frequently advocates for Escobar as well.

This team has to stop pretending they have any chance of winning next year.

This will turn into a decades long debacle if they don't finally commit to a true and full rebuild.

Start making decisions to compete in 2019.

I know that's a painful reality, but it's better than living in denial and being bad for 20 years.

[KGB]

Similar to the Cubs trading Samardzija, the Twins need to realize that they are not contenders and if they want to build something they need to trade players who have value. Holding on to Dozier when you are losing 90 plus games a year is a waste.

[Brandon Warne]

 

This team has to stop pretending they have any chance of winning next year.
This will turn into a decades long debacle if they don't finally commit to a true and full rebuild.
Start making decisions to compete in 2019.
I know that's a painful reality, but it's better than living in denial and being bad for 20 years.

 

Commit to a true rebuild now? Now? No way. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Polanco is better than who right now? Even with Dozier's early season slump he is still 7th in WAR for all 2nd basemen since the beginning of the 2015 season. I like Polanco and would like to see what he can do, but is he not better than Brian Dozier.

No, he's not. Dozier has, once again, turned into an elite second baseman. Yes, he's streaky. That's somewhat unfortunate but he still posts the numbers.

 

The question isn't whether Polanco is better today; he's not. The question is whether Polanco + prospects are better in 2018, maybe even 2017.

 

And suspect that answer is "yes".

[LaBombo]

 

Commit to a true rebuild now? Now? No way. 

The Twins have stumbled along for five years now in a half@ssed "rebuild" based almost entirely on acquiring a few veteran mediocrities while mostly just losing games and waiting for prospects to mature despite sometimes making decisions that indicate a low priority being placed on that maturation process.

 

To show for that strategy the Twins currently have the worst record in the A.L. and a negative run differential more than twice as low as that of the next worse team.

 

Other than a still highly-rated minor league system that has yet to deliver on its promise, the Minnesota Twins organization stands in utter ruin at the moment.

 

If muttering about contending while waiting for homegrown youngsters to flourish and shuffling veteran placeholders in and out has been an utterly predictable failure as a strategy for half a decade, what indication is there that it's about to succeed now?

 

[Obsvr]

The question isn't whether Polanco is better today; he's not. The question is whether Polanco + prospects are better in 2018, maybe even 2017.

And suspect that answer is "yes".

I don't know about that. I'm not a dozier bobo but I don't think you trade a borderline elite 2nd basement (albeit streaky) and pin your hope on prospects. We know that most prospects don't turn out, so the odds of hitting on Polanco and all the pieces you get in return is unlikely. He's on a favorable contract for awhile, he has to be in your plans.

 

The reality is that "total system failure" is spot on and that means free agent and minor league have failed. Everybody wants to unload Dozier, Santana, Nunez, and Suzuki.

 

The trade market is isn't there for 2b this year, so nobody is going to sell out to get Dozier.

 

Nunez won't command much, decent year but you know next year will be down from this year and so does every GM.

 

Santana is at best a good number 3 on a contender, but good number 3's wont likely command a high level impact prospect. Unless he's in rookie or A ball.

 

Suzuki might have the most value, but defensively isn't good and as a half season rental won't command as much as you might think, since pitching and defense wins championships and his defense essentially negates what offense he adds, especially in a small sample size like mlb playoffs.

 

They are in a pretty deep hole, one that unfortunately probably needs a new FO and a fresh perspective to get out of.

[Mr. Brooks]

Commit to a true rebuild now? Now? No way.

Well enjoy 20 years of bad baseball then.

I don't know what team you are watching, but this team is awful and is going nowhere soon.