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Everything posted by Lonestar

  1. Is Arraez healthy and in shape? Can he regain the offensive luster he had in 2019 (admittedly with a livelier ball then)? Why is Gordon on this team? Who gets bumped from the rotation?
  2. Trout is no longer more durable and only plays CF because he pushed back on having Brandon Marsh (a markedy better defender) take over. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-center-field/
  3. What has to change is that guys have to stay healthy. If they do stay healthy and don't stink, the only way Balazovic, Winder and Duran don't pitch with the Twins this year is if one or more are traded for established pitching, hopefully relatively young. I think the Twins like Montas because of his front-line potential, 180+ inings, 2 years of team control, and maybe the possibility of extending him for less than Berrios' deal. Then again, the Rays want him for everything but possibly extending him and they have more to offer.
  4. You are perhaps right on Winder. We have spring training to find out. I would be reluctant to include him in a Montas deal. It's not necessarily wasting bullets in St. Paul to groom Duran as a starter in St. Paul. I don't think the Twins will be wasting bullets in St. Paul, given that their competitive window is very much open and seeing what they gave up to get Correa and Gray.
  5. IIRC, the Twins had a good record when Clippard and Wisler opened in a year they won the AL Central by 1 game.
  6. IIRC, Kepler's power in 2019 was legit -- that is, not solely attributable to the juiced ball. What I liked best about this story was that Max was working out with Alex and Dave Kirilloff. I'm OK with him until the Twins come up with 2 better overall corner outfielders.
  7. What Chris said. Based on Rodon's medicals in November, the ChiSox didn't offer Rodon a Qualifying Offer. I think Rodon is counting on (or hoping for) his medicals to improve by the end of lockdown. And how much competition will the Twins have if that is the case. You can't count on winning the bidding.
  8. I am convinced the Twins do not plan on trading JD in this offseason. Otherwise they would have called up Miranda in September. [I have high hopes for Miranda but to me it's not worth manipulating service time. If he pans out, sign him to an extension of sorts.] I would add the Blue Jays to the list of possible trade partners. Toronto fns love JD and he makes sense now that their contention window is open. I figure the Twins would have to eat almost $18M on JD's remaining contract and then they would only get a couple of guys from their 20-30. I don't see that happening, nor do I see them turning that savings into a long-term contract (like the 5-year commitment they made to JD). Here's hoping JD stays healthy and his production matches this year's xOBA,
  9. I'm not sure this has been corrected elsewhere but Jake Cave's contract is guaranteed according to Spotrac. He took the guaranteed money rather than go for more in arbitration, like Wisler 2 years ago. Only arbitration salaries are not guaranteed (not arbitration-eligible). Jake Cave signed a 1 year / $800,000 contract with the Minnesota Twins, including $800,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $800,000. In 2022, Cave will earn a base salary of $800,000, while carrying a total salary of $800,000. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/jake-cave-18466/
  10. Josh Donaldson's contract has nothing to do with it. Pohlads backing off from $140M payroll in 2020 may have everything to do with it.
  11. You can give incentives for hardware as well as games played. Give Buxton incentives for games played. Try having them partially vest after he reaches 140 games one year. Have them fully vest if he reaches that threshold the next year.
  12. The Twins should commit to retooling or rebuilding. That depends on ownership and Byron Buxton. If Buxton signs an extension with the Twins, the competitive window is still open if the Twins avoid the middle ground between retooling and rebuilding. With Covid in the rearview mirror, it’s feasible that the Twins’ player salary payroll will be commensurate to 2020’s level = $139,491,000 and that only counted Maeda’s base salary and not his incentives. That means the Twins could have $140M player salary payroll plus Buxton’s incentives. That would mean the Twins could afford Buxton, guaranteeing him $19M and still have $53,000,000 to spend on 1 shortstop, 3 starting pitchers, 4 relief pitchers, a utility fielder and a 4th OF. They would have more to spend if Buxton’s guarantee was lower. Player salary payroll commensurate with 2020 is the only way to make sense of the Josh Donaldson signing. That’s why the payroll reduction in 2021 hurt so much. Admittedly the Twins are not coming off a 101-win season with the Bomba Squad but like I said, the Twins should avoid the middle ground while Buxton is in the fold. Invest in 2022 and the future.
  13. It looks like a fair trade for Buxton. I wonder if Atlanta can't do better (after they lose the Series to the Astros)> I don't know where the values for Eduardo Rodriguez and Raisel Iglesias come from. They seem to be 60 cents on the dollar.
  14. You are way underestimating Eduardo Rodriguez's salary.. He's going to get a qualifying offer. I think the AAV on a 3-4 year deal will exceed that *$18.4M).
  15. Rather than look at the whole 40-man roster, let's start with the 14 that will be on minor league rosters. I know it seems bass-ackwards but this year I think it will help clarify. I think most of us can agree on these 6 who are already there -- Balazovic, Colina, Duran, Strotman, Rortvedt, and Stashak. I see Celestino starting the year as the 4th OF at MLB minimum salary. Then let's add the 4 prospects guaranteed MiLB berths to start the year -- Lewis, Winder, Sands and Enlow. Enlow can't be moved from the 40-man roster to the 60-day IL until catchers and pitchers report, so he counts. Then there is Moran. His results have been a mixed bag and the Twins will need relievers with minor league options, so I see him starting the season in St. Paul Then there are Miranda and Larnach. The Twins have decided to keep Miranda down for service time reasons. And Larnach did nothing in St. Paul to merit a return. That's 13. And the 14th spot goes to Jax or Dobnak. I don't see the Twins giving up on either of them. Again they want someone with options for the 6th starter. And I hope they do better than have both of them targeted for the 26-man roster.
  16. FIFY They are still behind all of the playoff teams except the Yankees (and possibly the Mariners)
  17. Assumptions: the Twins have $53M to spend Buxton is extended and not traded with a premium eating into that $53M Miranda is in AAA to delay his service clock, getting some OF reps Larnach is in AAA to rediscover his mojo C Garver 1B Sano 2B Polanco 3B Donaldson SS Nick Ahmed (in trade from D’Backs) LF Kirilloff CF Buxton RF Kepler DH Arraez Bench: Jeffers, genuine MIF, Celestino, Rooker (because of Miranda decision)
  18. How do you give Price, Corbin and Strasburg F's and conclude Top FA starters are not risky?
  19. By 2023? Royce Lewis. Anyway I expect he will still be a prospect because he will have ROY eligibility.
  20. Lonestar

    Just Dreamin'

    I think Falvine could have taken names and kicked butt if you would have given them $10M more to spend in 2021 (with Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda in place). I love the Rodon signing, but I suspect your salary is low. I would sign Alex Wood instead of Pineda. Have you noticed how much Kimbrel inhales for the ChiSox. My point is: You have too much tied up in a closer not name Liam Hendrick. Sign Andrew Chafin and save $6M+. Use the money for a real shortstop, like Freddie Galvis. And a real MIF like Endire Adrianza. Hand, Rosenthal, and Yates are past their Use By dates. Rosenthal will still belong to the .Athletics and is coming of TJS. Yates is also coming off TJS. For the same or less money, sign 2 semi-proven relievers like Tepera and McHugh. The question is: Does all of this put the Twins in position to justify Jeffers and Larnach for 3 years of Alcantara?
  21. Lonestar

    Just Dreamin'

    Let’s see! $150M player salary payroll - $79M already committed (YMMV) = $71M available $10M Buxton incentives $20M Rodon (seems light as Ray is projected at $22.5M) $4M Alcantara arbitration (you may have forgotten this) $10M Pineda $15M Kimbrel $10M proven reliever $2M shortstop (stopgap) $71M planned
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