Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Lonestar

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    493

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Lonestar

  1. Lonestar
    I'm not sure this has been corrected elsewhere but Jake Cave's contract is guaranteed according to Spotrac. He took the guaranteed money rather than go for more in arbitration, like Wisler 2 years ago. Only arbitration salaries are not guaranteed (not arbitration-eligible). Jake Cave signed a 1 year / $800,000 contract with the Minnesota Twins, including $800,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $800,000. In 2022, Cave will earn a base salary of $800,000, while carrying a total salary of $800,000. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/jake-cave-18466/
  2. Lonestar
    Josh Donaldson's contract has nothing to do with it. Pohlads backing off from $140M payroll in 2020 may have everything to do with it.
  3. Lonestar
    You can give incentives for hardware as well as games played. Give Buxton incentives for games played. Try having them partially vest after he reaches 140 games one year. Have them fully vest if he reaches that threshold the next year.
  4. Lonestar
    The Twins should commit to retooling or rebuilding. That depends on ownership and Byron Buxton. If Buxton signs an extension with the Twins, the competitive window is still open if the Twins avoid the middle ground between retooling and rebuilding. With Covid in the rearview mirror, it’s feasible that the Twins’ player salary payroll will be commensurate to 2020’s level = $139,491,000 and that only counted Maeda’s base salary and not his incentives. That means the Twins could have $140M player salary payroll plus Buxton’s incentives. That would mean the Twins could afford Buxton, guaranteeing him $19M and still have $53,000,000 to spend on 1 shortstop, 3 starting pitchers, 4 relief pitchers, a utility fielder and a 4th OF. They would have more to spend if Buxton’s guarantee was lower. Player salary payroll commensurate with 2020 is the only way to make sense of the Josh Donaldson signing. That’s why the payroll reduction in 2021 hurt so much. Admittedly the Twins are not coming off a 101-win season with the Bomba Squad but like I said, the Twins should avoid the middle ground while Buxton is in the fold. Invest in 2022 and the future.
  5. Lonestar
    It looks like a fair trade for Buxton. I wonder if Atlanta can't do better (after they lose the Series to the Astros)> I don't know where the values for Eduardo Rodriguez and Raisel Iglesias come from. They seem to be 60 cents on the dollar.
  6. Lonestar
    You are way underestimating Eduardo Rodriguez's salary.. He's going to get a qualifying offer. I think the AAV on a 3-4 year deal will exceed that *$18.4M).
  7. Lonestar
    Rather than look at the whole 40-man roster, let's start with the 14 that will be on minor league rosters. I know it seems bass-ackwards but this year I think it will help clarify. I think most of us can agree on these 6 who are already there -- Balazovic, Colina, Duran, Strotman, Rortvedt, and Stashak. I see Celestino starting the year as the 4th OF at MLB minimum salary. Then let's add the 4 prospects guaranteed MiLB berths to start the year -- Lewis, Winder, Sands and Enlow. Enlow can't be moved from the 40-man roster to the 60-day IL until catchers and pitchers report, so he counts. Then there is Moran. His results have been a mixed bag and the Twins will need relievers with minor league options, so I see him starting the season in St. Paul Then there are Miranda and Larnach. The Twins have decided to keep Miranda down for service time reasons. And Larnach did nothing in St. Paul to merit a return. That's 13. And the 14th spot goes to Jax or Dobnak. I don't see the Twins giving up on either of them. Again they want someone with options for the 6th starter. And I hope they do better than have both of them targeted for the 26-man roster.
  8. Lonestar
    FIFY They are still behind all of the playoff teams except the Yankees (and possibly the Mariners)
  9. Lonestar
    Assumptions: the Twins have $53M to spend Buxton is extended and not traded with a premium eating into that $53M Miranda is in AAA to delay his service clock, getting some OF reps Larnach is in AAA to rediscover his mojo C Garver 1B Sano 2B Polanco 3B Donaldson SS Nick Ahmed (in trade from D’Backs) LF Kirilloff CF Buxton RF Kepler DH Arraez Bench: Jeffers, genuine MIF, Celestino, Rooker (because of Miranda decision)
  10. Lonestar
    How do you give Price, Corbin and Strasburg F's and conclude Top FA starters are not risky?
  11. Lonestar
    By 2023? Royce Lewis. Anyway I expect he will still be a prospect because he will have ROY eligibility.
  12. Lonestar

    Just Dreamin'

    Lonestar commented on mike8791's blog entry in mike8791's Blog

    I think Falvine could have taken names and kicked butt if you would have given them $10M more to spend in 2021 (with Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda in place). I love the Rodon signing, but I suspect your salary is low. I would sign Alex Wood instead of Pineda. Have you noticed how much Kimbrel inhales for the ChiSox. My point is: You have too much tied up in a closer not name Liam Hendrick. Sign Andrew Chafin and save $6M+. Use the money for a real shortstop, like Freddie Galvis. And a real MIF like Endire Adrianza. Hand, Rosenthal, and Yates are past their Use By dates. Rosenthal will still belong to the .Athletics and is coming of TJS. Yates is also coming off TJS. For the same or less money, sign 2 semi-proven relievers like Tepera and McHugh. The question is: Does all of this put the Twins in position to justify Jeffers and Larnach for 3 years of Alcantara?
  13. Lonestar

    Just Dreamin'

    Lonestar commented on mike8791's blog entry in mike8791's Blog

    Let’s see! $150M player salary payroll - $79M already committed (YMMV) = $71M available $10M Buxton incentives $20M Rodon (seems light as Ray is projected at $22.5M) $4M Alcantara arbitration (you may have forgotten this) $10M Pineda $15M Kimbrel $10M proven reliever $2M shortstop (stopgap) $71M planned
  14. Lonestar
    What do you read into BJ Boyd's promotion?
  15. Lonestar
    Thompson and Wilson would be approximately fair for Pineda alone.
  16. Lonestar
    It's not the front office's fault per se. It's ownership's fault for not increasing the payroll when the Twins were in a window of contention. When you have $27M (after adding Cruz) to spend and you spend $10.5 on Andrelton Simmons (a move almost universally applauded), you are left with Happ, Colome, and Robles. The Twins won't even have as much to spend next year as they did this year.
  17. Lonestar
    Nick is right about the recent apparent improvement in Hamilton's control. In his last 8 appearances dating back to June 25, he has pitched 15.1 innings, striking out 22 and walking only 4 for a 40.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, and K-BB% = 33.3%. In 6 of those 8 appearances, he pitched 2 or more innings. Obviously cherry picking but then again it appears something has changed. Make him the next addition to the 40-man and 25-man roster.
  18. Lonestar
    Cano gave up 3 runs on July 20, raising his AAA ERA from 3.21 to 4.50 and now 4.58 vs the 1.47 in AA. His xFIP has gone from 1.79 to 3.48. His K% has gone from 34.6% to 27.7% and his K-BB% has gone from 28.4% to 19.3%. This is not compelling evidence for a promotion to MLB, especially when you figure he doesn't have to be added next year and that there is going to be a 40-man roster crunch this off-season.
  19. Lonestar
    How well did that work in 2021? Duffey is getting by on smoke and mirrors if you look at his K%, BB%, HR/FB and BABIP. And a competitive teams needs 4 shutdown relievers, not 2. It would be good to find someone they can more or less count on for next year. Maybe then they could send Alcala to St. Paul to get fixed and/or experience some success.
  20. Lonestar
    Depending on who the Twins trade (and trade for) or otherwise jettison, there could be a lot of flexibilty on the active roster in August and September.
  21. Lonestar
    I don't think Cano has to be added to the 40-man roster next year, so I don't expect the Twins to add him this year unless he forces his way. His AAA stats are not that compelling yet.
  22. Lonestar
    Baez had a strained groin that limited his effectiveness and K% in "regular" season. How much do you think Chatwood will sign for? You know the Twins love his spin rates but will they pay that much for a long reliever? Call To The Pen pegged Foltynewicz for a NRI to a bad team. In 2018, his average FB was 96.8 MPH; in 2019 it was 94.9; in 2020 it was 91.4 (but rumored to be in the 94's by the end of September). Unless he is throwing 96+ in that showcase, i can see giving him a split contract with a NRI and a signing bonus that doesn't have to be prorated and maybe on opt out. Moreland has a career wOBA of .328. Hard pass. You mentioned Petit's appearances. In those, he has averaged more than an inning an appearance. My concern is the decline in K%. He made $5.5M last year. Maybe for Clippard money this year. Robertson's career OBP is based on 1 year that is not like the others. But you got him on my radar. He could be a candidate for a split contract with a NRI and a signing bonus. I had targeted Villar. He signed for $8.2M in his 3rd year of arb. Do you think he can be had for $3M? Same question for Freddy Galvis? I love the thought of signing Wood for a deal like the Dodgers did as 5th starter assuming I can make the other moves I want. I don't know if he would fit in the budget, especially if the 4th starter is James Paxton or Corey Kluber.
  23. Lonestar
    I was excited about the possibility of signing Profar until I realized how bad he was on dirt. Hard pass. Hernandez is versatile and perhaps the second best defensive 2B out there (next to Wong) but he is also the short side of a platoon when the Twins have plenty of RH hitters. Much of his versatility will be lost because the Twins don't have the movable parts that the Dodgers do. Is he worth $7M? If YES, do the Twins have it? Is he worth $2-4M more than Freddy Galvis? Taylor is not on the trade market. Nor is Marte. And if he was, Marte would cost more than Blake Snell would in trade -- almost Larnach + Duran + Balazovic..
  24. Lonestar
    Two thoughts: 1. Many underestimate the acquisition cost of a front-line starter. 2. Front-line starters are cheaper to acquire in the off-season than they are at the deadline. Here's a pretty good website for analyzing trade value: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/ Both teams would like to give up less surplus value than they receive in return in the off-season. Here’s the surplus value for some “front-line” starters available according to that website. YMMV $52.4M Blake Snell $36.4M Joe Musgrove $35.9M Sonny Gray $20.1M Yu Darvish $15.1M Lance Lynn In order to obtain Snell, the Twins would have to give up Larnach ($30.0M), Balazovic ($17.1M) and Wallner ($6.0M). At least. The Rays would prefer Larnach and Jeffers ($28.0M). At least.
  25. Lonestar
    I would love signing Profar given Donaldson’s calves. I think you’re right that Profar will go for a starting job elsewhere. I like the idea of someone like Rosenthal -- namely Trevor May. And Falvine do(es) spend money on relief pitchers. See Addison Reed. Yates makes sense in a vacuum but with limited funds available, I would rather spend $2M more on a surer thing (or two). Yates makes sense for the Dodgers. I love Taijuan Walker. He demotes Dobnak to fifth starter (at best), he might surpass Pineda, and he would be here 1 year after Pineda leaves.
×
×
  • Create New...