Lonestar

It's cool that the Dodger fans are still here. They must think: o Dozier is the best solution, and/or o this trade is likely to happen, and/or o this thread is as addictive for them as it is for us Thanx for your contributions to the thread

Cannot go with 13-man pitching staff and 3-man bench. Jettison D Santana and Grossman. Sign Bourjos. Insert Escobar at SS. Sign Aaron Barrett to split deal. Polanco plays 2B if Dozier is traded, super utility if he is not. Sign Drew if Dozier is traded. Dump Santiago's salary. Sign Brett Anderson to incentive-laden deal. Hope Park is ready and able.

Buehler throws harder than JDL. He throws two plus pitches (FB and Curve). According to Longenhagen, his cutter/slider projects to be plus. His change-up has the potential to be average or above. His best projections are above JDL's. Then again, he's undersized, already had TJS, and only pitched 5 innings at A or rookie ball last year. Would you feel better if the Dodgers offered him instead of JDL. It's hard to find a first baseman whose hitting (slugging) project as well as Bellinger and whose fielding is rated 70, especially one who has position versatility. the Dodgers as well as the Twins will have openings at 1B in two years. The difference is that the Twins will have Sano. KLaw for one said the Dodgers should not offer Bellinger or Verdugo. On the other hand, it sounds like you would prefer a pitcher to a 1B.

Huge disparity between Fangraphs' data and Brooks Baseball's

I don't think Gibson's problem is the 2-seamer. He increased the use of his 4-seamer from 19.8% to 27.8% at the expense of his slider and change up.

So Ben, what would you propose for a Braves offer that both teams could live with

How tall is he?

I don't see that much surplus value with Ervin. Now the Twins could eat part of his 2017 salary to create value and/or trade him to a team that has troubles signing free agent pitchers like the Rockies or Marlins. I would keep him until the trade deadline approaches, at least.

Great thread. 1. Who do you expect the Dodgers to consider untouchable? Technically, only Urias. Likely Bellinger because the starting point should be JDL and the two combined would be an overpay. JDL might also make Stewart unavailable because it eats too much into their 2017 rotation depth that they can stash in AAA. I don’t see Alvarez and Buehler available in the same deal. 2. How do you rank the pitching prospects? JDL, Alvarez, Buehler, Stewart, White, Sheffield, Sborz, Abdullah Stripling is not a prospect, but I like him more than Haley. In other words, there is likely a place for him on the 25 man roster. I think I would slot him after Sheffield. 3. How do you rank the hitting prospects? Bellinger, Verdugo, Diaz, Calhoun, Barnes, Toles, Lux, Ruiz. 4. Which of these role players (if any) would you be okay with as a 3rd or 4th piece: Barnes, Taylor, Thompson, Toles, Van Slyke? Part of this depends on who the 2nd piece is, assuming JDL is the first piece. I would love for Austin Barnes to be the third piece. I think he could be the regular catcher (although we likely won’t have to worry about that for 3 years) and I love his versatility. For those reasons, I doubt he is available. I could include JR Murphy in the deal, if necessary. Toles would be a great 3rd piece although not a great fit for the Twins with his platoon splits, given Kepler’s and Rosario’s splits. I think he ticketed to start against RHP’s for the Dodgers. I don’t see how the Dodgers can fit Van Slyke and Thompson on the same 25-man roster, but I think Thompson has an option left. I would much prefer Thompson as our 4th OF over Grossman. Toles is worth more than Thompson. Chris Taylor could be a 4th piece. Emphasis would be on 1st and 2nd piece. 5. Who are some interesting sleepers in the Dodgers system that you like? I don’t know if they qualify as sleepers based on the fangraphs’ write-up, but Mitch White and Keibert Ruiz would be nice adds. 6. Who are on your 'I don't want this player in a trade no matter what' list? According to everyone but Fangraphs, Calhoun is the Dodger’s 5th rated prospect at worst. That means he should be in consideration. My biggest objections to Calhoun are that he is a year away from being MLB-ready and being possibly flappable. Also the market is not kind to DH’s. So Calhoun would have to be a 3rd piece. Puig hit well since the end of May. He did everything the Dodgers asked in AAA and hit well upon his return. They put him on their post-season roster. I don’t think Puig is available as a 3rd piece. I would take him if I was happy with the 2nd piece. 7. What is your minimum acceptable trade? JDL and Alvarez or JDL, Stewart, White, and Ruiz or JDL, Calhoun, White and Ruiz 8. What is your dream trade? JDL, Alvarez/Buehler, White and Ruiz or JDL, Verdugo, White and Ruiz. 9. Would you consider it a failure if Dozier is in a Twins uniform on Opening Day? It depends on what the Dodgers offer and if we know what they offered. His trade value will never be higher. There is no comparable, affordable 2B on the market. There will not be a better match (in terms of need and talent) than the Dodgers. Forsythe will likely be available at the deadline. Baez might become available at any time. 10. What do expect Dozier's WAR to be in 2017 & 2018? 9 total WAR. $66M surplus value 11. If Dozier is traded to the Dodgers, what is your over/under for his home runs in 2017? 25

pass

Verdugo's scouting report Verdugo is advanced at the plate for his age, showing precocious feel for understanding the strike zone and recognizing pitches. He has a quick bat from the left side of the plate and figures to hit for a high average, though he makes contact so easily that it cuts into his walk totals. Scouts differ on his power ceiling, with some seeing the aptitude and strength for 20 homers per year and others wonder if he'll have enough pop to profile well if he shifts to an outfield corner. Verdugo spent the majority of his first two pro seasons in center field, making up for average speed with keen instincts. He definitely has the arm strength necessary for right field if he has to move, having hit 94 mph as a high school left-hander and registering 24 assists in 122 games last year. Makeup concerns dogged him in the Draft but club officials credited him with maturing and acting like a professional during his first full season. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

Now to disagree without being disagreeable. Are the Twins really so strapped for pitching that you would prefer Stewart to Verdugo? Who are those extra pieces that would cause you to make that deal?

I think there is too much emphasis on acquiring pitching (especially Alvarez) on behalf of most Twins posters and too much emphasis on protecting certain pitchers (Alvarez and Buehler) on the part of our Dodger visitors. I for one am tickled with DeLeon as a centerpiece or 1a. He checks the box for controllable pitching – a likely #3 with as much upside as downside. I can see the Dodgers not giving up both Bellinger and DeLeon. By everyone but Fangraphs, Verdugo ranks above Alvarez. If the choice came down to DeLeon + Verdugo or DeLeon + Alvarez, I would go with Verdugo unless the extra piece(s) made a difference. Verdugo would be ready in 2018.

Yes. Sign Willians Astudillo to a minor league contract with NRI

What are the other sites?

The Twins can keep Dozier. The Dodgers can make essentially the same offer for Forsythe that they are making for Dozier. Earlier we had a thread on the ideal trade for Dozier. Should not the question be (for Twins fans): What is the least you would take for Dozier?

How would you rank the Dodgers top 10 prospects?

Who was the Fangraphs pundit who said De Leon and Calhoun sounded right.

Tired of waiting for the Dozier trade? MLB Pipeline's Top 50 draft prospects http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=draft

Under the old CBA, didn't teams get different international spending caps based on their record and now they get the same amount. So in the first year of the new CBA, the Twins would be hurt because their spending pool and competitive advantage will be smaller than it would have been.

I have followed the whole thread and discovered this on a link to a Dodgers discussion board in the thread. I don't recall seeing this referred to here: Aaron Gleeman aka Dostoevsky tweeted this on 6-Dec People in two different, non-Twins front offices told me today [6-Dec] that they’re convinced Brian Dozier will be traded. Lotta Dodgers steam.

The catcher who replaces Turner in the organization

A PTBNL at this stage sounds like someone drafted in 2016 and not eligible for trade. Saying "possibly a PTBNL" doesn't sound final to me. By that I mean the two teams still have something to work out.

So Stewart might be in play. Cool.