Lonestar

My board looks like this: Jay -- highest ceiling, highest floor Swanson Bregman Fullmer -- talked into it by John Sickels Tate Rodgers -- old for a HS senior and a less than anticipated season.Hopefully 2 of my 6 are available. At least I don't think I have to worry about Rodgers being there. I don't like Cameron -- too much emphasis on polish, and I don't like his demands and prefer not to deal with his advisor. I have Benitendi, Tucker, and Buehler in front of him.

And that's what Fangraphs said.

Chapman would cost more like Berrios http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jabo-what-could-the-reds-get-for-chapman-and-cueto/ Also, re-read this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-traps-that-the-twins-need-to-avoid/ And most of you guys are the negative/critical ones.

I am glad you started this, Stringer. He reportedly has a 4-pitch mix. I know he throws a fastball, curve, and changeup. I don't know what the 4th pitch is. His scouting report before the season (according to MLB Pipeline) is Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 55 | Overall: 45 Before the Twins focused in on power arms in the Draft recently, they had a penchant for strike-throwers with a feel for pitching. Duffey, the Rice Univesity product, certainly fits that description. Duffey has risen to the top of the organizational ladder by using his fastball-curveball combination effectively. His heater is average to a tick above, playing up when he pounds the bottom of the zone. He throws a solid average curveball to go along with it. Duffey has a decent changeup, but doesn't use it enough, something the Twins would like to see him do more of to be more effective against left-handed hitters. While he's walked fewer than two batters per nine innings, he can get in trouble when he doesn't keep the ball down consistently, which adversely affects his numbers. There might not be a ton of ceiling for Duffey, but he has the chance to be an innings-eating back-of-the-rotation starter in the very near future. No mention of a 4th pitch. Still something seems to have changed with the upsurge in K%. Is it his changeup? I would love to hear an updated scouting report. He was good enough to share closer duties at Rice with the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2012 - Chargois. What would happen if he returned to the bullpen? He also seems to be the ideal candidate to learn the splitter.

Ryan has already been quoted in the press and saying that Sano should be able to play the outfield. He is athletic for a big man.

The weakness is the bullpen. Last in the AL in xFIP and BB%.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Fulmer crack the top 5 which could make someone higher on the Twins board available. Please not Cameron. Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, and Bregman are in the top 5 of my board. I like Jay (assuming the only reason he is not starting is enertia).

In 676 plate appearances for AA New Britain, Morneau put up .293/.351/.475 slash stats. His BB% was 7.69%, his K% was 16.27%, and his Isolate Power was .182. He was a year younger, in a different park, in a different league, in a different generation. I still don't see an edge in walks or power. Let's see what happens when Kepler's sample is not so small. And again when he moves up a couple of rungs.

This is what I wrote yesterday. Too bad the comments don't move when a blog becomes an article. I picked Max to click this year based on his AFL showing. His BABIP is not sustainable at .367 and I suspect his K% is, too, at 9.5%. His current BB% is only 6.3%. His offense has been very much driven by his batting average. It is perhaps wishcasting, but I perceive an uptick in plate discipline and power lately. He will need more of that as his batting average regresses. I think he is just tapping his power potential. And his confidence has to be soaring. The good news is that he is hitting .316/.350/.474 against LHP's. But then again, that's only over 19 AB's. I'm not sure Kepler's defense is tenable in CF for two weeks. His fringe average arm might limit him to LF and 1B. I don't see a surplus in the OF yet. I am counting on Buxton. I have always hoped that Hicks abides. But if Arcia can't put up offensive numbers that make his defense tolerable, that leaves Kepler and Rosario. [And Sano.] With his peripherals, I think Kepler will eclipse Rosario.

If you love a healthy Kolby Allard (who is shorter), I think you would love Tyler Jay.

I heart Tyler Jay. At 6'1" (with smooth delivery, athleticism, and arm speed) I'm not concerned about his height. See Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez. Not seeing he will be as good as they were. Could be better than JO Berrios who is 6'0".

I picked Max to click this year based on his AFL showing. His BABIP is not sustainable at .367 and I suspect his K% is, too, at 9.5%. His current BB% is only 6.3%. His offense has been very much driven by his batting average. It is perhaps wishcasting, but I perceive an uptick in plate discipline and power lately. He will need more of that as his batting average regresses. I think he is just tapping his power potential. And his confidence has to be soaring. The good news is that he is hitting .316/.350/.474 against LHP's. But then again, that's only over 19 AB's. I'm not sure Kepler's defense is tenable in CF for two weeks. His fringe average arm might limit him to LF. I don't see a surplus in the OF yet. I am counting on Buxton. I have always hoped that Hicks abides. But if Arcia can't put up offensive numbers that make his defense tolerable, that leaves Kepler and Rosario. [And Sano.] With his peripherals, I think Kepler will eclipse Rosario.

It's important to understand the expected offensive performance of a corner OF vs a SS. Rosario 37.1 K% 2.9 BB% .107 Isolated Power Escobar 23.1 K% 1.9 BB% .101 Iso P Santana 26.4 K% 1.4 BB% .089 Iso P Last year Ecobar's BB% was 5.2% and Santana's was 4.4%. I support sending Santana to AAA.

FWIW, it's the questions that were bland (except for the one about what went wrong with 4 losing seasons). But yeah, I'm not surprised Ryan (or any GM) gives bland answers in an interview.

Please consider this principles: 1.While pitching is an inherently unnatural motion, throwing a pitch does not necessarily do permanent damage to a pitcher's arm. It's only when fatigue sets in (and a pitcher's mechanics start to waver) that continued pitching can result in irreversible injury. 2.There is a certain number of pitches that a pitcher can throw before that fatigue sets in. 3.Once a pitcher is fatigued, each additional pitch causes more damage, and results in more additional fatigue, than the pitch before. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2633 32 pitches in an inning is fatiguing.

Tyler Ladendorf, the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2008, has made it to the majors as a 2B-SS-CF for the Athletics after 6 years in the minors. Last year was his first season in AAA where he put up a .297/.376/.407 line playing for Sacremento. He did have a 50-game suspension last year for a drug of abuse. I remember how I hearted Tyler Ladendorf in 2008. The Twins traded him for Orlando Cabrera in 2009.

I am optimistic that Allen would read this kind of analysis and do something with it.

Glen Perkins in fangraphs interview http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-glen-perkins-a-twin-his-fip-and-math/

I found this on Ian Happ from Kiley McDaniels dated 29-Jan. I don't know if this has been shared here yet. Definitely someone I want to keep an eye on. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/draft-video-breakdown-ian-happ/

Pinto threw out 17 out of 42 in the AA and AAA in 2013. That's 40%. I wonder why Pinto was victimized by so many offspeed pitches last year. Is that an aberration or special cause? Has anyone mentioned the umpire who said the difference in Pinto's framing was like night and day before he was sent down last year and after he was called up?

He's a catcher. Why not let him catch in meaningful games in A ball until the short season starts. Then make a decision.

What do you do if his AA line is .236/.344/.571/.915, he is striking out 30% of the time, and his 3B defense is as good as it was in 2013?

The OF is not crowded yet. Buxton has a pretty high floor, but there are serious questions about Hicks Rosario, Kepler, and Walker. Even with Arcia, there is the question as to whether he should DH or whether he should eventually platoon. Plouffe at 3B is much less of a question than any of those guys.

With their World Series run, the Royals should be sitting on a ton of money. With Shields' market shrinking, is their a possibility that the Royals sign him for a one-year deal?

IMO, catchers are called "backstops" for a reason. It's their job to keep the ball from rolling to the backstop. Catching defense is way overated because they play up the middle, they are involved on every pitch, and their defensive position is hard on their offense. [That doesn't mean that Doumit's defense was acceptable.] Consider pitch framing. If some of these catchers like Rene Rivera add so much value with their pitch framing, then their pitchers must stink. Here's the thing: Somewhere out there in cyberspace is a quote from an umpire that said there was night and day difference between Pinto's framing when he was sent down last year and when he came back up. His pitch framing should be serviceable. Until last year, Pinto was good at throwing out base runners. If there is no special cause, I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt. I honestly don't know what is so hard about calling pitches, especially when pitchers can wave off the call. Is it Pinto's English? I expect the Twins pitch sequencing to improve with the new pitching coach. [Look for Kyle Gibson to break out.] It would be helpful if bullpen coach Eddie Guardado was fluent in Spanish. So that basically gets us down to passed balls and blocking pitches in the dirt. Just how bad is Pinto at blocking pitches and allowing passed balls? Is he improving? The average AL catcher put up a .675 OPS. The unweighted OPS of the 6 AL catchers who qualified for the batting title was .709. I expect Pinto to beat that number by .100 once he settles in. That would allow for a lot of passed balls and unblocked pitches. Maybe some can do the math on that. If the Twins don't give up on Pinto too soon, the biggest thing that would keep him from displacing Suzuki would be Vargas' failure at DH.