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Lonestar

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Everything posted by Lonestar

  1. Lonestar
    Most people have Gordon ranked ahead of Turner now. That's a function of momentum and scrutiny. Gordon is in his honeymoon period. Turner's honeymoon was after two great years in the ACC. Now he has taken a BABIP hit and people question his stance and he is not consistently an 80 runner. Some people see Turner's speed and think of him as one dimensional. I see a guy who is great at putting his game changing speed into play. Some people rave about Gordon's arm even though MLB pipeline only gives him a 60. I remember Shawon Dunston. Saying Gordon's hit/on-base tool is better than Turner's is rather silly since Turner has put up good to great numbers for 3 in the #2 college baseball conference and Gordon is still in high school. Turner's numbers are as good as Knoblauch's and that's before you adjust for the change in bats or environment (better pitching). Nothing about Knoblauch was bottom of the order until he lost his abiity to throw to first. The advantage Turner has over Knoblauch (why he would be drafted higher) is that he plays average SS -- not plus like they project for Gordon. Fix Turner's stance and he is the guy you hope Gordon grows up to be, except he's whiter and faster. What is this noise about intangibles? Turner is more polarizing than most, but the truth is, after the top tier of Aiken and Rodon, you can throw a blanket over the next 8-10 guys and say pick one. And I would put Turner in that group with Gordon. Let's compare notes in 4 years.
  2. Lonestar
    We will never know what kind of pitcher Alex Wimmers would have been if he had not come down with Steve Blass disease and had TJS and at least one other surgery. And I don't think it's fair to mention Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Taijuan Walker without mentioning Karsten Whitson (1-9). Let us see how they pan out first. And remember if two of them do click you have beaten the odds.
  3. Lonestar
    Lefty? [Did you use crawford's cross-checker] And if he doesn't regain some luster in the college post season, he will drop farther than that after this weekend's start.
  4. Lonestar
    According to Dr. Andrews, if you throw hard enough to get drafted in the first round, TJS has to come into play. As far as pitcher injury nexus theory (~24 years), it's just that -- a theory with flawed data to support it. Pitching is an unnatural act that hurts the arm/shoulder/elbow. Ask John Smoltz or Scott Baker or Brad Radke. Pitchers break. The flaw in injury nexus theory is survivorship bias. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mystery-sabermetrics-still-cant-solve/ And of course none of the pitchers on Willi's list were within two years of the hypothetical nexus. A lot of Cape Cod guys fizzle because a lot of prospects fizzle.
  5. Lonestar
    I would say Freeland has a higher floor than Nola. He throws harder, his stuff is better, his control is comparable, BA thinks he has some projection left, and he is left handed. They share the same low arm slot, but no one has complained about Freeland's late release. Nola has an advantage in longer track record and tougher competition, but Freeland broke out last year in the Cape Code League and is building on that all this year. [FWIW the dearly departed Hoffman also broke out in last year's Cape but did not consistently show that this year.] Kolek is a thrower whose secondary stuff is far away. His control has been likened to Touki's (by someone) and Touki has shown much better secondary stuff. Touki has a very quick arm, is extremely athletic, and has lots of projection in terms of velocity as well as command and control. I agree Touki might have the highest ceiling. Most of us would agree on 8 of the top 10 and that's before we figure signability/slot. But that means 6 guys we like will be there at 5. Having watched last year's 1-1 Appel be reassigned to Extended Spring Training, I am quite content where we are. Personnally I would be disappointed with Nola (because of Freeland) and disgusted with Beede (because velocity and stuff is necessary but not sufficient). But I'm going to root for whoever the Twins draft. And follow my six with a great deal of interest.
  6. Lonestar
    I am just morbidly curious to hear a long-time scout compare him to Barry Larkin or Roberto Alomar offensively. Those two went on to have HoF careers -- I don't mean to make that comparison. But what were their hit/on-base tools like at 18? What were their projections like?
  7. Lonestar
    From MLB Pipeline You can read the rest of the article here. http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article/mlb/anthony-castrovince-young-pitchers-velocity-brings-rising-risk-of-injuries?ymd=20140509&content_id=74863322&vkey=news_mlb Discuss among yourselves.
  8. Lonestar
    You are missing the point. They debuted at essentially the same age -- my math error change is from 120 days younger to 245 days older. They both sucked for the first 600 plate appearances. One clicked at the end. One hasn't been given a chance. Given the alternatives, don't you think he should be given a chance now. What Kubel could have been before the injury is irrelevant. Parmelee likely won't be as good as Kubel was in his prime but there is a chance that he could. He definitely could be better than Kubel now. And next year. Etc.
  9. Lonestar
    Parmelee made his debut at 23.194 years (that's 194 days). So far in his career he has put up a .246/.322/.395/.717 line in 620 plate appearance. Kubel made his debut at 23.314 years and in his first 603 plate appearance put up a .253/.305/.406/.711 line (not counting HBP's). Kubel had 42 BB and 107 K Parmelee had 58 BB and 146 K.
  10. Lonestar
    It's not their fault that all 4 OF's are on the DL at the same time. It is their fault that they went with Bartlett and 3 catchers and 3 shortstops that they were stuck starting Escobar in the OF with no OF on the bench and Parmelee a phone call away -- a phone call that was not made.
  11. Lonestar
    Baseball America has their first mock up. Twins take Gordon after Cubs take Finnegan. Jackson at 1-6, Freeland at 1-7.
  12. Lonestar
    Turner had a nice week end. 11 AB | 9 H | 1 2B | 1 3B | 1 HR | 4 BB | 1 SO | 6 SB Season slash stats up to .330/.424/.523 BABIP now .329
  13. Lonestar
    If they sign their 1-5 pick, it's not as if they are drafting Ben Revere. A lot of guys are signed below slot because the slots are artificial. They are just a way of quantifying spending limits.
  14. Lonestar
    Nice outing by Trevor May. I like that you gave credit to the opposing pitcher (Josh Smith) by name.
  15. Lonestar
    Freeland sounds a lot like Rodon to me in that they should shelve the slider in the first year in the pros and work on their change ups and possibly curves. Got to love the Sale comp, but some part of that is delivery (as well as command, control, and stuff ratios).
  16. Lonestar
    Do you think he would be a below-slot signing.
  17. Lonestar
    What if Hoffman doesn't pitch again before the draft or sucks when he does? I can't remember. Would you start Jackson at catcher or move him to RF?
  18. Lonestar
    I'm not sure it's fair to compare a 22-year-old with 1.5 years of professional development with a 20-year-old with 0 professional development. The scouting reports I have read say that Freeland flashes a 70 slider. "Flashes" vs "Shown"? It certainly has potential to be a Plus Plus pitch. K. Zimmer was the best college pitcher available at #5. Freeland will likely be the best college pitcher available at #5.
  19. Lonestar
    So which BABIP is a better indicator: the .374 as a freshman, the .393 as asophomore, or the .304 as a junior. Turner has changed his stance, so that it is really affecting his hitting and he has played much of the year in the middle of the order of an anemic defense. He still has more walks than strikeouts, he has an IsoD of .091, and IsoP of.168. If he could split the difference on his BABIP, his line would look like last year's. If Rodon goes in the top 3, it's because scouts are thinking of the first two years, not this one. If Turner does not go in the top 10, it’s because scouts have forgotten the first two years. Turner doesn’t have momentum. It's natural that we focus on momentum.
  20. Lonestar
    Per your request, markos. Originally shared by cmb.
  21. Lonestar
    With Hoffman on the shelf, Jackson could be gone in the top 4. Jackson is the top hitting prospect. That doesn't make him the next Myer. John Manuel said it was a mistake to compare him to Myer. I had him #2 on my board before I read that If you draft Jackson, do you have him don the tools of ignorance -- that is, do you have him play catcher? I'm not concerned about speeding his path to the Show.
  22. Lonestar
    I'm glad you mentioned FGCU becauseFreeland has been comped to Florida Gulf Coast University's Chris Sale. In partdue to the handedness and the command/control, but also the arm slot and the slider. He might be a poor man's Chris Sale but he does have someprojectability left. Not a bad comp. With Hoffman sidelined, the first four look more and more [to me] like Aiken,Kolek, Rodon, and Jackson in some order. Boras would have to be factored in for anyone drafting Rodon and Jackson.
  23. Lonestar
    I think it's matter of degree. There's a difference between thinking a guy might grow out of SS and saying he won't play there in the pros. If they dreamed he could play SS, they wouldn't talk to him about catching.
  24. Lonestar
    I don't think they're comparable, Willi. According to Kiley McDaniel:
  25. Lonestar
    In Hughes' bad inning, he did not give up a HR or BB, if I remember correctly. Sounds like the confluence of BABIP and a nail that wouldn't let him throw his curve ball.
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