Lonestar

How about giving Melky Mesa a split contract?

I don't think there is room for both Pelfrey and Milone on 25-man roster. There isn't room for either of them in the rotation unless someone breaks. I would start Meyer in AAA to delay his service time -- not for arbitration purposes but for free agency purposes. I would rather have almost 7 years of team control than just 6, especially with a Boras client. I like the idea of signing McCarthy and Anderson. May and Meyer will work their way into the rotation eventually. Hopefully Nolasco regains his value and can be flipped.

Why not do both? It's interesting to see how the Twins have gone from three CF's in the outfield (sort of, kind of) to none. Actually last year, it was more like 1 OF, 1 IF, and 1 DH in the outfield. I wonder what kind of defensive SS Danny Santana will become. Or what Sano will do to the defense at 3B or OF.

I agree. My point is: It might be better in their minds to move Arcia for Hunter than to move Arcia for Sano since they will likely have to play together more than 1 year. On a different tangent, I don't know whether to hope the Hunter signing was Pohlad's and St. Peter's idea or not.

Ryan has already hinted that Sano could/would play the OF. It makes sense that he play OF since Plouffe is a better 3B. It makes sense that he play RF since he is more athletic than Arcia and has a better arm. It still doesn't make sense to sign Torii.

Target Field might keep Rasmus from signing with the Twins. The Twins do play half of their games away from Target Field and many of those favor LHB's. A right-handed Rasmus on a three-year deal makes me think of BJ Upton. You do believe in selling high. Certainly Hughes' BB% and HR/FB figure to regress. Hopefully his BABIP regresses also, but some part of that is dependent on improving defense in CF. And LF. And maybe RF (moving Arcia to DH). Even with regression, I like Hughes. He is relatively young, cheap, above average, and possible to extend. I think I can get the same years for about the same money as I would give McCarthy. I would want to know what the king's ransom could be. What do you think? What is your back-up plan for CF? What do you think of Bourjos? What do you think it would take?

My goal is to field a competitive, sustainable, projectable team. Like everyone else, I want to improve pitching and defense. Unlike almost everyone else, I start Danny Santana in centerfield and Alex Meyer in Rochester. Don’t you want to know why? In a small sample size, Santana is a better SS than CF and I suspect that SS is his future (after Buxton comes up). But [1] Escobar is a better SS than Santana; Santana figures to improve after less than 1 year in CF; [2] Santana is a better CF and better hitter than Schafer; and [3] the price for Bourjos figures to be more than I want to pay. In other words, I am betting that Santana’s advantages are worth a year’s development at SS, even for a team that is likely 1 year away from seriously contending for the playoffs. I would keep Meyer in AAA until I delay free agency (not necessarily arbitration) 1 year. And I do my best to sign two starting pitchers better than Meyer and May are expected to be 2015. Sign Brandon McCarthy (3yr/$42M with $20M team option and $1M buyout) http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brandon-mccarthy-as-a-value/ Why McCarthy? He pitched 200 innings for first time. He added 2 MPH. There’s no compensation pick attached. It’s only 3 years and $42M. He makes Nolasco and Milone more available. Back-up plan: Offer Liriano 3/$36 with $18M team option and $1M buyout. Back-up back-up plan: Offer Justin Masterson 1/$9.5M + incentives with team option if he passes a rigorous physical (perhaps more rigorous than the CBA will allow) Sign Brett Anderson (1/$7.5M with $2M incentives, $15M team option and $600K buyout) Why? If/When healthy, Anderson is better than May or Meyer. Twins offer a clear path to slot in rotation and $8.1M guaranteed. Twins get possible second year of team control and negotiating leverage to extend. If Anderson is ready to go, May and Meyer can start the season in the bullpen or in Rochester. Back-up plan: Insert May. Meyer stays in Rochester until he delays free agency 1 year. Sign Luke Hochevar (1/$3.5M) Before there was Wade Davis, there was Luke Hochevar. If he regains form, Twins can flip him. Or retain him if Perkins falters. Back-up plan: Add one of May/Tonkin/Oliveros. Pass on Melky Cabrera (3/$39), Colby Rasmus (3/$36M), Alex Rios (2/$18M), Emilio Bonifacio (2/$12M). Years and total value are guesstimates by David Cameron. Absolutely pass on Torii Hunter at 2/$18M+ [or even 1/$8M or 1/$5M or 1/$.5M]. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-free-agent-predictions/ I changed my mind and would sign Aoki for 3/$24 if necessary, thinking I can trade him in a year or two. I like his OBP and defense. I would prefer 2/$18M On 21 August, I said I would sign Melky for 3/$39M. What changed? I’m spending more on pitching than I was thinking back then. David Cameron said he wouldn’t sign Cabrera for the expected 3/$39M. Back-up plan: Rios, if he will sign for 1/$10M but that would likely be in February. I would pass on Rasmus even on a one-year deal because he wants to be CF. Signing him would still leave a hole in LF. He is a doofus (at best) and an OBP hole. Sign Chris Denorfia (1/$2.5M) for platoon possibilities. If I haven’t signed Aoki or Rios by the time the music stops, I would trade for Andrew Lambo and platoon him with Denorfia. Sign Dean Anna (1/$550K). I love his versatility at SS/2B/3B/LF/RF. Makes Escobar available in trade. Makes Santana available for CF or LF or AAA if he falters. Possible platoon partner for Denorfia. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-best-signing-of-the-offseason-so-far-by-the-projections/ Trade Tommy Milone for something. He’s not a LOOGY. If I stashed him in AAA (where he was disgruntled last year), would I have to pay his arb salary? I see trading him after the music stops/before 25-man rosters are set. If available, draft Jarlin Garcia in the Rule 5 draft. Who’s added to the 40 man roster beside the 6 free agents named above? Buxton, Meyer, and Sano, of course. And Wheeler, Sean Gilmartin, and Levi Michael. And Deibonson Romero. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-minor-league-free-agents-by-the-projections/ Who’s gone? Swarzak, Duensing, Thielbar, Thompson, Fryer, Colabello, Nunez, Parmelee and Milone That’s 39 players on the 40-man roster, unless the Milone trade nets someone to be added or if Garcia is drafted. Rotation: Hughes, McCarthy, Gibson, Nolasco, Anderson Bullpen: Perkins, Fien, Hochevar, Darnell or Gilmartin or NRI/Rule 5 for LOOGY, Pelfrey (ridden like a rented mule), May, one of Tonkin/Oliveros/Meyer (after 1 month). A 7-man bullpen is an improvement over Gardy’s 8-man pen. Only one LOOGY is an improvement over two pseudo-quasi LOOGY’s. Four RP’s willing and able to go multiple innings Three RP’s capable of hitting 97+ MPH Starting lineup: Suzuki, Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Aoki, Santana, Arcia, Vargas Bench: Pinto, Anna, Schafer, Denorfia Total Payroll = $107,825,000 That’s consistent with what Pohlad has said and only 96% of what payroll was in four (4) years ago — 2011. If I miss on Anderson and Hochevar, payroll would be less than $97,375,000. Hopefully Nolasco regains his value so he can be flipped. Twins should still be in a position to extend Hughes as well as Dozier and Plouffe if they want to do so. Estimated Time of Arrival Meyer — May 2015 Buxton — September 2015 Sano — September 2015 Rosario — September 2015 Berrios — May-September 2016 Question: If I am going to spend $30,000,000 more than current commitments, why not sign Scherzer or Lester? Answer: Besides too much money for too many years for those two, I can get McCarthy and Anderson and Hochevar for the same price.

If the radar gun is right, he's hitting 91.4 mph.

I would rather have Gilmartin than Swarzak (in his second year of arbitration), Thielbar, Thompson, Fryer, Colabello, Nunez, Parmelee. Not the first time I haven't seen eye to eye with Terry Ryan.

I think some of us are underestimating Bourjos' trade value. If we are talking a starting pitcher to replace Miller, I did too. There is a great divide in opinion on Bourjos for real GM's, but with Buxton only a year away and the Twins being at least a year away from seriously challenging, TR and I would both likely be outbid.

I think it will take guaranteed money + incentives to land Anderson. And I would do it. I would hope to add a team option if he makes some of those incentives.

I would sign Rasmus for 1/$12M but I've read he is more likely to get $24-$36M. I heart Hicks, but even I have targeted him for Rochester. What is your backup plan for Hicks? I like Pinto and think he will take over C (or maybe DH) before the end of the year. I think you are overly sentimental regarding Colabello. But the Twins are going to need someone who can fill in for Mauer - not necessarily on the active roster. Plouffe can do that for 1 game. If Masterson is all that's available at the end, 1/$10 can't hurt. I think he's more of a backup plan. But then I'm occasionally wrong. You are allowed 1 LOOGY. Neither Thielbar nor Milone are LOOGYs.

Sano hasn't faced live pitching in a year. He doesn't figure to be up until September. Plouffe figures to be a better defender at 3B than Sano. In fact, Sano may not be acceptable at 3B. The Twins have another vacancy for Sano to fill -- either LF or RF, depending on Arcia. The Twins don't really have another 3B in the pipeline. I would have to be swept of my feet to trade Plouffe now.

I am not confident, either. That's why I asked the question. I didn't ask if the Twins should do it, although I find them interesting.

What would it take for the Twins to obtain Pete Bourjos from the Cardinals as a 1-year placeholder for Byron Buxton in CF? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cardinals-continue-being-smart-acquire-peter-bourjos/

Tommy Milone is a super 2. He has an option left, but appeared to be disgruntled last year when optioned by the Athletics. His velocity was down from 87.8 MPH as a rookie to 86.5 last year. He's not a LOOGY as his career line vs LHB's is .258/.310/.489/.729, JR is threatening to start him. Is this just noise to build up his trade value? What would be a fair trade for Tommy Milone?

Eddie is not ready IMO. He is not controlling the strike zone or hitting for power. I would nontender Nunez myself. Give that roster spot to a bonafide OF. I like Nori Aoki myself although I would have to be prepared to flip him during or after his second year. Chris Denorfia would be better than Nunez. Or find someone in the trade market.

What did you give up for Bourjos?

I would try to add Roberto Alomar instead of Ozzie. Alomar's hitting approach was much more sound. He did have the one spitting incident (with a special cause) whereas Ozzie was Ozzie. Alomar played with Molitor. I don't know how they got along. Of course Alomar has trhat special assistant job with Toronto and likely lifetime job security as well as opportunities to coach, so it might not work. It's easy to say you would sign Yasmani Thomas. How much would you be willing to pay? What's your back up plan? There are a lot more guys on the bubble than Niko and Parmelee, especially with Schafer's small sample size and Oliveros, Achter and Thompson already added. You may have posted this elsewhere, but who are you adding to the 40 man roster and who are you voting off?

Melky Cabrera, 3 years, $13M per with a clause that pays $1M if traded

According to ESPN, the Twins only have 39 on their roster now. I agree with SD that they don't need to get to 39 after the additions. If they do sign someone, they can pick who to drop. I started with who to add. My definites are Sano, Meyer, Rosario, Gilmartin, and Oliveros. That's 5. We could have some interesting conversations about Adam, Wheeler and Cole Johnson. I don't think Adrian Salcedo has gotten enough mention with his peripherals. And Levi Michael might force himself into the conversation with a good AFL. As of now I would go with Adam and Salcedo in additon to the first 5. 5 + 2 - 1 vacancy = 6 Burton, Schafer, Colabello, and Florimon are easy cuts as is one of Deduno or Pino. I'm guessing it's Deduno since Pino has better control and two option years. Ibarra seems like nothing special, so after dropping him the Twins are down to 40. That's what I think the Twins will do.

Well done, Andy. Hopefully the picture would have been brighter with a full year of development for Sano and Buxton. I do think you understated how bad the defense is.

Mid-season scouting reports on prospects and near-prospects would be great. Has Pinto's catching improved? What's the word on Mitch Garver?

I just discovered the box scores under Schedule and from there I can get to the recap. Now I can stop going to ESPN first. And now your guys with the Minor League Report can stop writing up the MLB game. It doesn't fit the subject and often it's not especially when done.

My biggest concern about Suzuki (besides blocking Pinto) is that the Twins will play him too much, wearing him out. That has happened in the past. The Twins need a much better backup, preferably one with some versatility like Pinto or Hermann. On a side note, it's interesting that the Twins have trusted the development of Meyer and May to Pinto and Hermann. I wonder what Meyer and May have to say about Pinto's catching.