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Lonestar

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Everything posted by Lonestar

  1. Lonestar
    Nice first effort. Donaldson's salary does look low. Miller's salary is definitely low. 7-man bullpen may not work when 8-man is de rigueur.
  2. Lonestar
    Did we resolve that Roster Resource is wrong and that Graterol and Alcala are not Rule 5 eligible.
  3. Lonestar
    Brandon, your plan might work if the Twins can survive a 7-man bullpen instead of the de rigueur 8-man.
  4. Lonestar
    If the Twins have a 8-man bullpen and sign Cruz for DH and McCutchen for RF, that means they can only carry 3 other outfielders -- one being Rosario. The 3 candidates for 2 remaining positions are Buxton, Cave, and Kepler. Buxton and Cave have minor league options. Kepler does not. IMO Buxton will likely have to be optioned during the course of the season based on his poor command & control of the strike zone. Will it happen on Day 1 or later or at all? [i don't think they would carry Buxton as a 4th OF/PR/defensive specialist until he is out of options. He needs the reps and the work on pitch recognition and command & control of the strike zone.] Now if the Twins sign McCutchen as a RF/DH option, they can carry both Kepler and Cave. And better absorb the Buxton demotion or injury.
  5. Lonestar
    I am a big fan of Max, but I have finally realized (thanx to Doomtint's and wsnyde's dialogue) that he won't be more than he is until he fixes his swing and pitch selection. Send him to Driveline Baseball in Seattle or some equivalent.
  6. Lonestar
    Their CF sucks until proven otherwise. Their 3B sucks until proven otherwise. Those are holes. Their SS sucks at defense (proven) and some think the same deficiencies would follow him to 2B.
  7. Lonestar
    The Twins finished 85-77 in 2017 was the 2nd Wild Card team in the AL. The Brewers finished 86-76 in the NL and missed the Wild Card by 1 game. Stearns looked at his talent (including the #5 farm system) and the underlying data and decided to make significant moves. Falvine looked at their talent (including a #14 system IIRC, weighted towards the lower minors) and underlying data (including sequencing) and decided to be more guarded. After missing out on Yu Darvish, they did sign 4 multi-year deals (if by multi-year, you mean team control for more than one year): Reed, Rodney, Duke, and Morrison. Turns out Stearns was right … for 2018. Almost everything worked. Falvine were also right. The Twins were not ready. Players gotta play and they did not. Not only Reed, Morrison, and Rodney, but also Polanco, Kepler, Mauer, and the reinforcements from Rochester (Gonsalves, Gordon, Wade, Busenitz, Duffey, and Curtiss) did not play. Most especially Buxton, Sano, and Dozier did not play. Those 3 alone account for more than the drop off from 85 wins 2017 to 78 wins in 2018. Of course it took 91 wins to make the playoffs in 2018 and likely will take that amount in 2019.
  8. Lonestar
    I'm one of the biggest Anderson fans on the board and would have loved to see him in 2018, but it was not a crime to take one last look at Busenitz, Duffey, and Curtiss. But if they let him go in Rule 5, it will be a crime.
  9. Lonestar
    No. Carlos Gomez, Aaron Hicks, and Byron Buxton have convinced some of us.
  10. Lonestar
    Sano and Buxton both can be optioned next year. But unless you plan on optioning them on Day 1, building the roster gets tricky. It wouldn't be so bad if the Twins had one question mark, but they have two. It's not like you can stash viable 2+ Win replacements in AAA (unless you grow your own, and the Twins have none in the pipeline).
  11. Lonestar
    FWIW, Muelens speaks Spanish -- as do Montoyo and Espada.
  12. Lonestar
    Espada and Woodward are not available until their teams exit the post-season. Will that affect the search?
  13. Lonestar

    Bullpen BS

    Lonestar commented on mikelink45's blog entry in mikelink45's Blog

    I didn't look closely because he isn't averaging 1 IP per game. He's had success this year. Not so much in 2017 and his splits held down his trade value in 2016.
  14. Lonestar
    Didn't see this posted. Interesting insight from Rotographs: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/bullpen-report-september-17-2018/
  15. Lonestar

    Bullpen BS

    Lonestar commented on mikelink45's blog entry in mikelink45's Blog

    Ottavino would be worth it for the professionalism he would bring. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adam-ottavino-rebuilt-himself-in-a-vacant-manhattan-storefront/ Watson is a LOOGY and I'm not interested in that, let alone giving up talent for it at this time.
  16. Lonestar
    The Twins’ 2018 opening day payroll was $128,713,226. How much will they have available to spend for 2019? First they will have to cover the dead weight: $7.95M for Hughes, Santana, and Morrison. Then they have the guaranteed contracts: $24.5M Castro ($8M), Pineda ($8M), Reed ($8.5M). Then there are the arbitration candidates: $38.2M for Gibson ($11M), Odorizzi ($9M), Rosario ($7M), Kepler as Super 2 ($4M), Adrianza ($2M), Sano ($2.5M), Buxton ($1.5M), and May ($1.2M). That’s a total of $76.05M. YMMV and I claim no expertise (none) in estimating arbitration or extension salaries. Let’s not quibble about anything under $1M. Then there’s $5.4M for 9 pre-arbitration players : Polanco, Garver, Cave, Berrios, Hildenberger, Rodgers, and three relievers TBD. If next year’s payroll is $130M, that leaves $53.95M to sign a starting pitcher, a shutdown reliever, a 2B or SS (wherever Polanco does not play), and a 3B or 1B (wherever Sano doesn’t play) and a DH that can “replace” Sano or Buxton if they are optioned or otherwise sidelined. First-year extension premiums (if any) would have to come out of that remainder, also. If the Twins do not sign a free agent for any one of those 5 positions, the remainder would be reduced by approximately $.6M. For example, Tyler Austin is not counted above but could be part of the solution. Now ... How would you spend that $53.95M?
  17. Lonestar
    Who on that list is going to put up more than Kepler's 2.5 WAR (or whatever measure of value you choose) this year? Can they play CF? How many WAR do you think Kepler will put up next year? Or the next 4 years? How many years will they require? What will their performance look like throughout that term? How much more are they going to cost than Max's Super 2 salary? What do you think Max's salary will be next year? As is, the Twins have about $54M in salary cap space next year. Paying more for Kepler's position will eat into that. How are you going to afford a front-line starter candidate, a shutdown reliever or 2 or 3, a 2B/SS, a 1B and/or 3B (whatever Sano doesn't play). Who are you going to trade for? What's their expected WAR or other value?
  18. Lonestar
    Why do you say that? Left Fielders Gregor Blanco (35), Michael Brantley (32), Melky Cabrera (34), Rajai Davis (38), Daniel Descalso (32), Brett Gardner (35), Craig Gentry, Marwin Gonzalez (30), Jon Jay (33), Cameron Maybin (32), Gerardo Parra (32) Right Fielders Jose Bautista (38), Lonnie Chisenhall (30), Carlos Gomez (33), Carlos Gonzalez (33), Curtis Granderson (38), Brandon Guyer (33), Bryce Harper (26), Matt Joyce (34), Nick Markakis (35), Andrew McCutchen (32), Hunter Pence (36)
  19. Lonestar
    There is nothing wrong with Kepler's line vs LHP's this year: .254/.331/442/.777 Kepler needs to work on his launch angle IMO. For all of you that liked to complain about Dozier's pre-All Star splits, Rosario's post-All Star line is .233/.255/.341/.596. Dozier's pre-All Star splits were .242/.328/.417/.745 in 2017 and .246/.335/.450/.785 in 2016.
  20. Lonestar
    Starlin Castro has only played SS in 3 games in 3 years. He only has two years of team control left at $13.5M AAV. I don't see the fit.
  21. Lonestar
    Why did Anderson not make the top 5? Is it simply ERA? I hope they add Anderson and Reed to the 40-man roster -- especially Anderson.
  22. Lonestar
    Of course that means neither one loses his Rookie of the Year eligibility. For those of you hoping that at least Kirilloff will log significant MLB playing time.
  23. Lonestar
    He has two options left. I think it would be a mistake to boot him from the 40-man roster for the likes of DeJong or Curtiss or Duffey.
  24. Lonestar
    I like the idea of Jose Iglesias playing SS on a 1-year deal. That would move Polanco to 2B or better yet the bench.
  25. Lonestar
    Are you talking SS or 3B? Machado is a below average SS and above average 3B. What are you figuring for the Twins payroll next year? I figure the Twins have less than $50M to spend next year if their payroll is $130M. Many would like to see the Twins add a starting pitcher, a shutdown reliever, a 2B. Are you planning on the Twins contending next year (without those additions)? Will Machado sign for a non-contender?
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