The Twins Have a Starting Pitching Crisis Brewing for 2028

[DataNerd]

The only way to really mess this up is to keep all of the expirings and deciding not to re-sign any of them.  Trade one of them and we can easily re-sign at least one of them, potentially 2 and this isn't an issue.

Current arb estimates, assuming we keep Ober, has the 4 making $44.5M next year.  Even with our payroll situation and assuming no salary floor changing that, we can still easily retain one.

[TNtwins85]

5 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

None of the four teams in the 2026 ALCS or NLCS had all of their current starters in line two years ago. In fact, a large percentage of their starters were acquired within the past 3 to 15 months and at least three of the best other pitchers, Misiorowski, Henderson, and Messick, had a lot of doubt about them at this time in 2024.

Worrying about the 2028 rotation at this time is useless anxiety, especially when you have five good internal candidates who have pitched in the majors already, plus several other candidates in the lower minors, and have many larger problems to solve before being a truly competitive team. 

Ok, so you write an article about what you think they should be focused on. What’s the crisis you see?

[Cris E]

18 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Everyone keeps saying this but it really hasn’t been. That’s why Maki was let go. On paper yes. At the end of the last 2 seasons based on the stats, no. The article was about the future of the rotation. Where’s the next Ryan? Lopez? Ober? Is there candidates? Yes, Bradley took a big step this year. Abel looked the part for a month and Prielipp held his own. They need more depth and that comes from the system and the system looks bare for ‘28. Guys step up for sure. Not very many stepped up this year though in the minors. 

Um, what? "The article was about the future of the rotation" and three young pitchers looked promising in the rotation but the system looks bare so Pete Maki needs to go?     "Not may stepped up from the minors" except for the 101 games started by guys 26 and younger. 

They had a top starter drop out of the rotation in Feb, Another prize acquisition threw 20 innings and was lost. Ryan lost a month or more. Ober lost a couple more steps physically.  Facing that Maki got Ober to a somewhat effective place throwing at high school velocity. He got much more out of Bradley than Tampa did. Matthews had a 2.57 ERA in ten home starts (with some problems on the road.) Preilipp was good in his first real year, and stayed healthy and effective while reaching a new personal inning high. 

The next #1 is not Pete Maki's problem. The major league pitching coach  has to be focused on this season, on the series, on the game, on the inning. The front office worries about next year. The player development guys and the coaches in the same state as those minor league players are responsible for bringing them along. 

 

[Cris E]

39 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Wouldn’t be any issues at all if they had pulled the trigger on trading Ryan for Tolle (and  Arias - the #2 prospect overall) and Jeffers for Elayason instead of being short-term delusional idiots.

If they had, this article would be about how we have the best young rotation in baseball.

Why wouldn't there be an issue?  This article was premised on the daft assumption that anyone without years of proven performance and a long term contract in hand is a hole in 2028. Tolle only has 29 career starts so he's clearly in the "the Twins will need to see more before treating him as a sure thing" column. And he's only there because we lose Ryan to acquire him so we're in an even deeper hole in 2027.

Your fantasy trade is not the problem or solution. The article is weak and would misread everything short of a star on a long term deal. As it stands we do have a potentially great young rotation, but acknowledging that means you can't get Crisis into the clickbait title.

[TNtwins85]

2 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Um, what? "The article was about the future of the rotation" and three young pitchers looked promising in the rotation but the system looks bare so Pete Maki needs to go?     "Not may stepped up from the minors" except for the 101 games started by guys 26 and younger. 

They had a top starter drop out of the rotation in Feb, Another prize acquisition threw 20 innings and was lost. Ryan lost a month or more. Ober lost a couple more steps physically.  Facing that Maki got Ober to a somewhat effective place throwing at high school velocity. He got much more out of Bradley than Tampa did. Matthews had a 2.57 ERA in ten home starts (with some problems on the road.) Preilipp was good in his first real year, and stayed healthy and effective while reaching a new personal inning high. 

The next #1 is not Pete Maki's problem. The major league pitching coach  has to be focused on this season, on the series, on the game, on the inning. The front office worries about next year. The player development guys and the coaches in the same state as those minor league players are responsible for bringing them along. 

 

You said the rotation has been a strength. Based on stats the last 2 years it has not. Ranked in the 20’s. If you are talking about 2023 then yes. That was the last time they ranked in the top half of baseball. So on paper yeah, sure it’s been a strength in recent years. In reality the last 2 years it has not been. They’ve ranked as a bottom 5-8 as a starting staff. As a reliever staff, and as a whole the last 2 years. Hence, they fired Maki. I wasn’t commenting on the article I was commenting on you thinking the pitching has been a strength when it has not been. 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, MeleMouth said:

This is a made-up issue, but congrats on using a good imagination to keep coming up with content.

The Twins already have five potentially decent starters for 2028 without doing anything.

Yeah, that's the problem.  5 isn't enough, and those 5 aren't good enough anyway.  That would be a bottom 10 rotation.

[Woof Bronzer]

Does anyone know if the Twins are still doing the "develop every pitcher to throw 3-4 innings" thing?  

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I expect when the time eventually comes to trade Ryan, we'll need to get 1 or 2 almost ready for the major starters in return.

I would be fine with just one. They got Joe Ryan and another arm for Nelson Cruz. Time to do that again.

[Cris E]

10 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

You said the rotation has been a strength. Based on stats the last 2 years it has not. Ranked in the 20’s. If you are talking about 2023 then yes. That was the last time they ranked in the top half of baseball. So on paper yeah, sure it’s been a strength in recent years. In reality the last 2 years it has not been. They’ve ranked as a bottom 5-8 as a starting staff. As a reliever staff, and as a whole the last 2 years. Hence, they fired Maki. I wasn’t commenting on the article I was commenting on you thinking the pitching has been a strength when it has not been. 

In 2026 the Twins finished 12th of 30 with 2.1 WAA from their starters according to Baseball-reference. They are not a bottom 5 rotation, that's ridiculous.  Now the bullpen finished at #22 with -3.7 WAA, but that's because they didn't do their work over the winter and came to camp empty handed.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2026.shtml

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

Call me stupid but I thought there was alot to like in Kremer last year. I'm not talking about a headliner but more someone who could replace Ober in the 4 or 5 slot. 

And resigning him after this year wouldn't break the bank. 

I agree, and Kremer has a track record as a solid 4th or 5th starter.  I think Ryan and Ober are the best choices to try and trade this off-season; however, it all depends on what the trade market can bring.  

[jmlease1]

28 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Ok, so you write an article about what you think they should be focused on. What’s the crisis you see?

This crisis this franchise has is turning high draft picks into consistent contributors. Too many prospects aren't getting past suspect stage, and we won't compete without more of those being more than 1 year wonders (if they make it at all). Need guys like Culpepper, Jenkins, Rodriguez to take the next step, Keaschall & Bradley to replicate 2026, etc. Have a few guys like Abel get healthy and step in.

Guys like Wallner, Julien, Lewis, SWR and Martin not being able to replicate/advance was a real step back.

Injuries are going to hit, but hopefully we have fewer career-wreckers on that front too. Injuries are certainly the other crisis point: yes, everyone will have some...but reducing the numbers, having fewer season (or career) enders may not be fixable, but it's always going to be an issue because as a franchise we're unlikely to have the level of depth where losing multiple key contributors for long periods is something that we can overcome effectively. That's a tougher solution to find, but watching for it matters. Losing prospects like Miranda and Kirilloff to career-wrecking injuries certainly has hurt a lot. (and hopefully the ones to Festa and Abel aren't to that level)

[Twins GFP]

1 hour ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

This article is about 2028, not next year. Lopez, Ober, Kremer and Ryan are all free agents in 2028.

That leaves the Twins with Bradley, Prielipp, Abel, Matthews and Rojas, and really that is one starting pitcher with any real track record (Bradley). If 27 isn't about finding out what Prielipp, Abel, Matthews and Rojas have to offer as starting pitchers, 28 will be a crisis and the Twins will likely be looking at signing multiple starting pitching. That may not be the end of the world, but it sure seems like it would cost a ton to fill a rotation with FA's, but not having any high price offensive players, it might not be that bad either. 

If you read my comment, you would know that i did not bring up Ryan and said they should.... wait for it... re-sign one of Lopez/Ober/Kremer. My comments were 100% for 2028, not 2027.

[Hrbowski]

More Twins Daily AI slop. This is honestly getting embarrassing, guys. Why not have people write articles that they actually thought through with their own independent analysis? Content for the sake of content is demeaning the value of this site.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Sign Michael King to a 4 or deal to lead our rotation. In '28, he could be followed by Taj and Prielipp. Not a bad top 3 IMO. 

 

[CRF]

Geez...let's get through 2027 (hopefully there is one) first, before worrying about 2028.

[HerbieFan]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Brewers would be figuring out how to trade all four starters with expiring contracts for new talent.

Or they would have developed enough mlb ready arms to replace them.  Beating a dead horse....another remnant of the failed Falvey tenure is the failure to develop pitching.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Watching the playoffs makes me want more flame throwing lefties for the Twins.

[Rosterman]

Not really. Just the need to get work for the next group next season, depending on how it all works out.

Lopez and Ryan are tradebait no matter he situation.

Kremer and Ober are not in furture plans.

So have to find a way to get Abel, Matthews, Prieloff into the mix, not to mention Rojas. Finding space in the bullpen to keep them at the major league level is a possibility,

Either way, mid-season will see some changes.

The bigger question is Bradley. You have to committ to an extension or he becaome another Berrios or Ryan, wokring towards free agency in search of bigger dollars elsewhere.

And, remember, you can always spend to get a BIG name arm, an innings eater, or just a run-of-the-mill multi-year contract starter with an overpaid contract (which the Twins commonly do).

2028: Bradley, Abel, Prieloff, Matthews, Rojas. I can live with that with Festa, Gallagher, Quick and a couple of other fast trackers in the wings. And that is before you might add someone via free agency or trade.

If thew Twins could've only traded Jeffers, Bell, Larnach or others to get, perhaps, that 7th or 8th starter (a la Ryan with the Rays, Bradley, too) instead of basically nothng. Development is still the key. Coaching second. Major league experience a MUST!

[rdehring]

Count me among those most concerned about 2027.  The first five you list are all exciting young prospects that should pitch a lot of innings in 2027.  And they all have some, albeit limited major league experience.   

Of the four veterans, seems to make sense to extend Lopez and trade two of the other three.  Hopefully, the return will include one very good bullpen arm who will help next year.  Two veterans, plus the five young guns should give the Twins one of the better staffs in baseball going into next year.  As for 2028, guys my age can only hope we are still here seeing what our team is putting on the field.

[mikelink45]

The world series has not begun and we are worrying about the 2028 rotation?  What will the articles be in December, January and February?  

 

How about something current like what teams can learn from Tampa, Cleveland, Milwaukee.  Will there be a sea change?  Lewis and Wallner are victims of the three true outcomes fad with emphasis on the strike out part of the equation.  

Will these playoffs start a new trend?