The Twins May Have Waited Too Long on Walker Jenkins

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

There is no way to know whether Walker Jenkins would have changed the Minnesota Twins' season. That is the uncomfortable part of this conversation.

Maybe he would have arrived at Target Field and struggled. Maybe the transition to the majors would have exposed areas of his game that haven't been tested at Triple-A. Maybe he would have needed a few weeks to adjust before becoming the impact hitter everyone expects him to be. Or maybe he would have helped the Twins win just enough games to change the shape of their season.

At this point, that possibility is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The Twins entered Thursday 64-70, four games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the American League's final Wild Card spot. Their playoff odds have fallen to roughly 10 percent after Minnesota was swept by San Diego and dropped two of three games to the Athletics.

And while there are plenty of reasons for the collapse, the Twins' decision to leave Jenkins in Triple-A is one that deserves another look. Not because Jenkins was guaranteed to be a superstar immediately. Because Minnesota had a glaring need for an impact bat, and its best option happened to be putting together one of the best offensive stretches in the organization.

The Situation Changed

When Jeremy Zoll explained earlier this month why Jenkins had not been promoted, his reasoning was understandable. The Twins wanted to make sure there was a legitimate opportunity for Jenkins to play every day. Calling up a top prospect only to have him sit on the bench isn't particularly beneficial for his development. Zoll also pointed to Kaelen Culpepper's promotion as an example of how opportunity matters when deciding when to move a prospect to the majors.

That is a reasonable philosophy. But baseball seasons don't stay static. The situation changed. By the middle of August, Byron Buxton was dealing with another hip issue. The outfield mix became less stable. Minnesota needed offense, and suddenly the theoretical opportunity for Jenkins was sitting right in front of the organization.

At the same time, Jenkins was making the decision harder with virtually every game he played. In the first 16 August games, he hit .415/.493/.800 with a 1.293 OPS, seven home runs and six stolen bases. He followed that by continuing to produce during the final week of the month, including another home run on Thursday.

At some point, keeping a player in Triple-A stops being about whether he has something left to prove. Jenkins reached that point.

Development Matters, But So Does Winning

The Twins deserve credit for being deliberate with Jenkins. He missed a significant portion of the season after suffering a shoulder injury, and rushing him back would have been irresponsible. Player development should never be dictated solely by public pressure.

But there is a difference between rushing a player and recognizing when a player has become ready. Jenkins' performance suggests he reached that stage. He had already been performing at Triple-A for months, and his August production was not simply a small sample fueled by a few fortunate games. He was showing power, plate discipline, speed and the ability to impact games in multiple ways.

The Twins also weren't operating as a rebuilding team. They bought at the trade deadline. They added Jeff Hoffman, Dean Kremer and A.J. Minter because they believed this team had a chance to play meaningful baseball in September. They promoted Culpepper because they believed he could help them win now.

That makes the decision to keep Jenkins in Triple-A more difficult to reconcile. You can't spend the final week of July and the first week of August behaving like a team trying to make the playoffs, then suddenly become entirely focused on preserving a prospect's developmental timeline when the roster needs help.

Did Jenkins Cost the Twins a Playoff Spot?

This is where the argument needs some restraint. Saying Jenkins definitely cost Minnesota a playoff berth would be impossible to prove.

The Twins have lost games for countless reasons. Their pitching has been inconsistent. Their best players have dealt with injuries. The schedule hasn't always been kind. And Minnesota has simply played poor baseball for stretches. Jenkins alone cannot fix that. 

But the question isn't whether Jenkins would have single-handedly carried Minnesota into October. The question is whether he could have provided enough value over the weeks leading into this collapse to make a difference. That's a much more reasonable question. The Twins were sitting in the Wild Card picture just over a week ago. Now they are four games back, with their postseason odds falling from nearly 40 percent to roughly 10 percent in just over a week.

When the margin is that thin, one or two wins can completely change the conversation. Maybe Jenkins gives them one extra hit. Maybe he makes one catch. Maybe he takes one extra-base hit away from an opposing pitcher. Maybe he doesn't do any of those things.

But Minnesota had an elite prospect producing at a ridiculous level in Triple-A while its major-league outfield was dealing with injuries and inconsistency. At some point, the risk of calling him up becomes smaller than the risk of leaving him there.

The Bigger Lesson

The Twins shouldn't regret being careful with Jenkins. They should regret not recognizing when the circumstances changed. There is a difference between protecting a prospect and protecting yourself from making a difficult decision.

Jenkins' long-term future is far more important than the final 30-plus games of the 2026 season. But the organization also spent much of the summer telling everyone through its actions that it believed this team could contend. That meant maximizing the roster. And Jenkins was becoming increasingly difficult to leave off it.

Maybe the Twins eventually call him up and he struggles. Maybe they call him up next week and his arrival comes too late to matter. That's baseball.

But when Minnesota looks back at a season that could end just short of the playoffs, Jenkins' time in Triple-A will be one of the obvious "what if?" questions. The answer may never be known.

Still, watching the Twins stumble through an injury-plagued August while Jenkins tears apart Triple-A pitching makes one thing increasingly clear: The Twins probably didn't need Walker Jenkins to become a star this summer. They simply needed to find out whether he could help them win. And they may have waited too long to find out.

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Did the Twins wait too long to call up Jenkins? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[Parfigliano]

The season will not end "just short of the playoffs."  Seasons end will have TC at least 8 games out of the playoffs.

[thelanges5]

I do think that he should’ve been called up sooner. Definitely would’ve made an impact, but wouldn’t have been able to save the season by himself. Baseball is not a sport where one guy can make or break the team. 20 or so other guys are slumping at the same time. Mostly the same guys, same time of year, same results. Third year in a row. 

[PuckettPond]

It looks like we found our Kirby Puckett replacement in CF. A 5 tool player plus being well groomed showing pride in himself & the team. Hippies belong in the 1960's not on a baseball field. Pride, respect & self worth starts @ the barber shop. Support your local barbers. Go Twins!

[LastOnePicked]

Fair article, Cody. Gleeman had some very good takes on this issue over the last month or so, and his answer is that the Twins most certainly could have found room for Jenkins to play regularly. Would that have made all the difference? Who knows. Momentum and "vibes" are a weird thing in baseball. 

I'll say this - for a team claiming to go "all in," it was frustrating to see them revert to their nibbling ways. Not unexpected, but frustrating.

I think the bigger issue is Buxton's health. When he goes down and the Twins don't have another solid option in CF, the team just seems to wilt. I thought back to the last time the Twins were somewhat successful (2023), and it seems like having Michael A. Taylor and his Gold Glove as Buxton's replacement really, really helped.

You just can't build a playoff push around guys who can't take the field in August/September.

[D.C Twins]

At very least they needed him as an actual CF when it was clear that Buck was hurting.

I'm a big fan of Keaschall and hope that he can develop/find a defensive position but he should have NEVER even touched CF for his entire careeer. 

[D.C Twins]

15 minutes ago, PuckettPond said:

It looks like we found our Kirby Puckett replacement in CF. A 5 tool player plus being well groomed showing pride in himself & the team. Hippies belong in the 1960's not on a baseball field. Pride, respect & self worth starts @ the barber shop. Support your local barbers. Go Twins!

Get off my lawn!!!!!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Jenkins callup sooner would have helped, also having another position player on the bench instead of Alex Jackson would have helped too.

Clemens and Larnach have been two of the coldest hitters for the last month, while Roden has been one of the hotter. Why the hell was Jackson put back on the roster, instead of Jenkins?

it would have been very easy to have Jenkins Roden, Buxton in the OF, put Keaschall at 2nd. Buxton needs a night off, slide Keaschall to RF and play Clemens at 2nd.

i just don’t get it

[Saxophone Joe]

This team lost so many games in August (and post all-star break) by not doing the little things right in all phases. That’s my bigger “what if?” over this stretch. Probably wouldn’t have mattered if Jenkins had been called up imo. Alas, we’ll never know. 

Also seems the Twins were determined to have his debut at home (for PR), and we had a 9-game road trip to start the month.

[LyleCole]

Here has been a common theme of the Twins organization for a while, through many front offices and managers:

They are afraid of calling up prospects and they do not do well and they are simultaneously afraid of calling up prospects and they flourish.

The second clause is all financial because then they lose a year of control and will have to pay them.  The Dodgers and Yankees do not have these concerns.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, PuckettPond said:

It looks like we found our Kirby Puckett replacement in CF. A 5 tool player plus being well groomed showing pride in himself & the team. Hippies belong in the 1960's not on a baseball field. Pride, respect & self worth starts @ the barber shop. Support your local barbers. Go Twins!

Hippies?

[Old Twins Hat]

Nah, the Twins just aren't good enough this year.  Again.

Hoping they got a good start on their core for next year.  

May Culpepper, Jenkins and Lee be all-stars in the next window of contention.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Hippies?

I took that as a shot at Buxton’s haircut/braids but the incredulity still stands.

what does hippies and haircut have to do with baseball?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

So just for verification- the team called up both Culpepper and Jenkins and there winning % has gone down. What would have calling the, up a week or two earlier have done?

[jaimedude]

The biggest question has to be why they released Alex Jackson only to bring him back two days later. He never plays and it is clear returning Buxton to active roster was a mistake detrimental too his health. Larnach and Clemens have not been good  this month at the plate and Larnach has never been adequate in the field. When this team needed to move Larnach and Jeffers at trade deadline if they were planning on keeping Jackson, Jeremy Zoll blinked. It should have never got out to the media Twins had a trade fall through with Houston for Larnach. This has been a poor year by Twins front office from a talent perspective. This is now three consecutive years the Twins have had an absolutely miserable August on the field and from a health perspective. Three consecutive years of total collapse in August. Twins front office needs a complete overhaul, and re-evaluation of talent and what is needed to build a sustainable winner. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

The season will not end "just short of the playoffs."  Seasons end will have TC at least 8 games out of the playoffs.

And two extra weeks of Jenkins might have moved the needle all the way up to… 7 games out of the playoffs. 

[MeleMouth]

Calling up Jenkins in 2026 one second before he was clearly ready for the majors at the possible expense of his long-term development would have compounded the category error the Twins made by trying to treat 2026 as a competitive year. It would be one more "let's pivot from our long-term plan to meet some short-term need." If they can't stick with a long-term plan even for their best prospect in 10-20 years, then they'll never win anything.

[HarmonK03]

22 minutes ago, jaimedude said:

It should have never got out to the media Twins had a trade fall through with Houston for Larnach

In fairness, I think that came from the Houston side, normally trades that fall thru like this don't get leaked.

[Wedman13]

41 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Calling up Jenkins in 2026 one second before he was clearly ready for the majors at the possible expense of his long-term development would have compounded the category error the Twins made by trying to treat 2026 as a competitive year. It would be one more "let's pivot from our long-term plan to meet some short-term need." If they can't stick with a long-term plan even for their best prospect in 10-20 years, then they'll never win anything.

For whatever my opinion is worth, this is a great post and perspective 

[wesnewy]

Should he have been called up sooner? Yes. But did anyone really expect the Twins to be here at this point in the season? This team has been really fun when they are winning, but they always seemed doomed to regress to the mean especially on the offensive side of things. I don't think Walker would have saved us from that, though I personally would have liked to see him get the call after Buck's first post-ASG hip injury.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Hey, we can all speculate on whether calling up Jenkins earlier would have made a difference. I personally don’t think so because I don’t think lacking an impact bat was the biggest problem we’ve had over the last month. The problem is our starting pitching has completely fallen apart. This year is just like last year in that sense. Ryan has a great first half, nowhere to be seen in the second half and in some ways a detriment. Once he goes, we are kind of in trouble. Bradley is a good solid mid rotation starter, and who knows, might be more by next year. But he he’s not that now.  Ober is getting by with duct tape and baling wire, Prielipp is gassed.Matthews is actually pitching pretty well, but by that I mean, he’s an adequate fourth or fifth starter. Everybody else who could help is hurt and that’s not even mentioning that we lost our number one starter before the season even started. The Starting pitching fell apart, the bullpen isn’t strong enough to carry a weak starting staff, the offense fell off, and we hit the pits. Oh well, to next year. 

[CRF]

No doubt, the guy looks like a real stud. Too bad it won't make any difference this season. Let's all hope there's a 2027 season to watch him. 

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So just for verification- the team called up both Culpepper and Jenkins and there winning % has gone down. What would have calling the, up a week or two earlier have done?

Gotten us a better shot at a higher draft pick in the lottery?

[sun]

It's not impossible to prove that Jenkins could have made a difference. The season isn't over and if the Twins do make the playoffs then it will have been proven. It's not too late to keep hope alive until the fat lady sings. Just quit the whinning and watch to see if the Twins can win enough games.

[ashbury]

I took a deep dive into analyzing Jenkins's major league career, and if my math is right the Twins are 0-2 in games he has appeared in.  Would his presence earlier in the season by itself have turned things around for the team?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say no.

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Hippies?

I'm hoping it's satire because I'm having trouble squaring the notion of some clean-cut, self-respecting young athlete with a chubby Kirby Puckett rolling into the clubhouse with sacks of McDonald's for all. He was a fine ball-player and he was well loved, but not a paragon of the modern ascetic clean-living professional athlete lifestyle of this century. (Aside from a good haircut: he did have that.)

[jkcarew]

I think they should have brought him up sooner. Seems obvious.

But the club is  4 games, and behind multiple teams from a playoff spot right now. They’re much closer to 13th place in a 15 team league…a bad 15 team league…than they are to a playoff spot. Only a Twins fan/writer could call that “just short”.  Unrealistic to think any one player could have fixed all that. But he should have been called up because he’s better than who you were playing, and from the back end of June, that included an obviously broken Buxton. Period. His status as the face of the future just made it more stupid.

[Whitey333]

Im very glad he is finally here.  Nowhere let him play every day no matter how good or bed until the season is over.  The notion that they didnt have a spot for him is ludicrous.  If you have a prospect as highly touted as him you dont wait for an opening, you create one. Thats what real organizations do.  

[TheLeviathan]

They should have brought him up sooner.  Along with Wallner, Culpepper, Erod, etc. when they realized back in July that they were pretenders.  

We're going to need to sober up on what this team is.  It's too late for the front office to make the right moves, but we as fans don't have to stay delusional about some magical moves that would've kept this team in it.  They weren't going to keep hitting like Tony Gwynn with runners on which was the only thing keeping them alive in a terrible AL.  It was also highly unlikely that everyone else was going to stay terrible.  All we got is this team regressing to what their run differential has been telling us since April: They're not good.  They should be building for the future.

That's why Jenkins should be up.  Playoffs or contention was always a bad basis for decision making this year.

[mikelink45]

I had to laugh when I saw the headline - has there been a question headline with a more obvious answer?  I will go ahead and say it anyway - Yesssssssssssssssss

If I need a reason - look at the players who have been used - Gray, Kreidler, Jackson, Martin, Roben and tell me which of them has more talent or potential.  Then look at Larnach and his second half slump or Lewis and his awkward strikeouts.