The Twins Could Walk Away as Big Winners at the Trade Deadline

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect

As the Twins have stumbled out of the All-Star break, it grows increasingly likely that they will be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline.

After last year's fire sale that shook up the roster, the Twins once again have several names that could be on the way out over the next week and a half. It isn't the position anyone in the organization hoped to be in; selling would be another sign that 2026 hasn't gone according to plan. However, there are long-term benefits that come with moving veterans and arbitration-eligible players. One of those benefits is how much money the Twins could potentially save from this year's payroll.

Ryan Jeffers, Joe Ryan and Trevor Larnach are all names generating plenty of attention on the trade market. Each would bring back a player (or multiple) that could fit into the Twins’ long-term plans, but there's another layer to the discussion that shouldn't be overlooked.

The offense would almost certainly take a step back in the short term without Jeffers and Larnach in the lineup. Ryan, meanwhile, has been the anchor of the rotation, and all three have spent their entire major league careers with the Twins. They drafted Larnach in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft and used their second-rounder on Jeffers. Ryan was acquired from the Rays in July of 2021 as the headliner in the Nelson Cruz trade and has developed into one of the American League’s best pitchers. Moving on from three guys who have been around for that long is a tough thing to do as an organization. But not only would the hypothetical returns for those players help shape the organization's future; they would also clear millions of dollars from the payroll.

All three are playing on one-year contracts. Ryan and Larnach each have a year of team control left in 2027, and Jeffers will hit the open market this winter. Despite the season being roughly two-thirds complete, there's little reason to continue paying those salaries if the organization no longer views this year's club as a legitimate contender. If those players don't fit into the long-term plans, there is value in moving them now rather than waiting.

Looking at their contracts, Jeffers is making the most of the three at $6.7 million this season. Assuming roughly two-thirds of that salary has already been paid by the deadline, the Twins would save approximately $2.23 million by trading him. Ryan and Larnach would add even more savings. Between those two players, the Twins would clear roughly another $3.5 million from this year's payroll. Now you're talking about just under $6 million saved immediately, and that's before even considering how much will be avoided by not having to pay their next contract.

The savings don't stop there, either. Veterans Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers are both playing on one-year deals and could very well be on the move if contenders come calling. Bell signed a one-year, $7 million contract. After accounting for his $250,000 signing bonus, he'll earn $6.75 million throughout the season. Rogers is making $2 million this year. Combined, that's just under $9 million in salary. With approximately one-third of the season remaining, moving both players would save the Twins nearly another $3 million from this year's payroll.

And what if someone like Bailey Ober got moved? Like Ryan and Larnach, he has one more year of arbitration eligibility and could draw interest from a team looking to strengthen the back end of its rotation. Trading Ober would save approximately $1.73 million this season, and as much as I’m sure we’ll all miss his electric 88 MPH fastball, it’s tough to imagine he fits in the Twins’ future rotation plans.

Put all of those moves together, and the Twins could (potentially) save around $10.5 million from this year's payroll by moving players who don't appear to fit into the organization's long-term plans. And that's before mentioning what might be the biggest benefit of all: adding another wave of young talent through trade returns. That's what this is really about. The Twins aren't simply trying to cut costs; they're trying to position themselves for the future. If the front office believes this core isn't capable of competing for a championship in 2026, maximizing the value of those assets becomes the logical next step.

Looking ahead to 2027, there are even bigger financial questions looming. Nobody knows exactly what that season will look like—or whether there will even be a season—with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement set to become one of baseball's biggest storylines over the next year. The biggest component of that has centered around implementing a salary cap and a salary floor. 

In the league's initial proposal, the salary floor would be set at $171.2 million. The Twins are currently one of 12 teams below that figure, and they're going to need far more than $10.5 million in savings to navigate whatever comes next. Minnesota's current payroll sits at roughly $106 million, leaving a massive gap between where it is today and where a potential salary floor could eventually be established. That's why, regardless of whether the Twins believed they were contenders this season, significant roster decisions were likely coming at some point anyway.

Shipping out key pieces at the trade deadline is never enjoyable. That's especially true for Twins fans, who just watched last summer's fire sale reshape much of the roster. But baseball is a business as much as it's a game. If moving players who no longer fit the organization's long-term timeline allows the Twins to save money, acquire future talent and better position themselves for whatever comes next, it's a difficult decision that may ultimately make the most sense. And once again, that's the situation the Twins find themselves in.

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[Patzky]

Ten million saved.  Really. You gotta pay somebody, can't just run around with four empty roster spots. We're paying Carlos Correa that much not to play for us (or play at all, it turns out)

Cutting just to save, I thought we were past that point. Not a good look.

[Nshore]

They probably will sell - which means it'll probably be at least 3 years before they're even competitive again - which also means I have to massively cut down on the sugar and alcohol if I'm going to live to see it.

[DJL44]

Looking out for the profits of the billionaires is a lonely place these days. Often that ‘courage’ is rewarded by those same billionaires.

I don’t know why anyone is worried about the Twins being able to cover a salary floor spending level. The increased revenue sharing will guarantee a profit.

[LA Vikes Fan]

No offense Sam, but this just doesn’t make any sense from a money saving perspective. Saving $10.5 million is bubpkis money for an MLB team. The only reason that trading makes any sense is to get value for guys who don’t fit in your competitive time window. I would say that’s the best argument you could’ve made. It certainly applies to Jeffers. The problem is that while Ryan could get you a big haul, the other three guys aren’t gonna get you anything of value. None of them is worth an MLB ready talent or anyone ready next year. The best you could hope to do is get lucky on A ball guys who turn out to be something four years from now. More likely you will trade those guys for players who have to be nothing more than organizational filler. Almost as bad, you give a signal to the fans and the teams that you don’t think you’re gonna be competitive anytime soon, not this year, not next year, maybe 2028 if you’re lucky, but more likely 2029 or later. I just think a big selloff is not only a bad baseball move, it’s a bad business move.

I look at this is very similar the idea of trading serious prospects for guys like Sonny Gray or other aging, expensive players. We shouldn’t do that either. This team isn’t good enough to mortgage the future for. If you make trades, you make trades for controllable players or MLB ready prospects, and you trade guys you’re going to lose for nothing at seasons end like Jeffers.

I think the right move here is to do a little buying of controllable players, if you can get them, sell Jeffers because you don’t want him to walk away for nothing, and move on. If you got a couple of prospects, you think can help next year, get them up to the big club to get their feet wet. Ryan is the much tougher call, but I would keep him unless just blown away by a package that includes guys with an MLB track record and then trade him in the off-season. Otherwise, play this one out.

[Eris]

“After last year's fire sale that shook up the roster,”

Last year’s deadline moves involved trading relief pitchers and players on expiring contracts. Left untouched were the plethora of underperforming position players for which decisions will need to be made (e.g., Wallner, Lewis, possibly Lee and Martin). The Twins roster as currently constructed has only Jeffers and possibly Buxton who are above average both offensively and defensively. This is not the roster of a championship team. 

[big dog]

The Pohlads and this kind of approach have just beaten me down. I'm seriously thinking of trying to forget the Twins, the girl I always loved who hasn't loved me back in 20+ years. In fact, she makes fun of me by telling me she'll go out with me but never actually doing it.

Time to find a small-market team that is actually working. Go Brewers!

But we all know I will come crawling back the next time the Twins smile at me with a potentially good trade or a, gasp, mid-level FA signing. Then I will get stepped on again.

[Linus]

1 minute ago, Eris said:

“After last year's fire sale that shook up the roster,”

Last year’s deadline moves involved trading relief pitchers and players on expiring contracts. Left untouched were the plethora of underperforming position players for which decisions will need to be made (e.g., Wallner, Lewis, possibly Lee and Martin). The Twins roster as currently constructed has only Jeffers and possibly Buxton who are above average both offensively and defensively. This is not the roster of a championship team. 

This. I have no desire to continue down this road of mediocrity with the same mediocre players. This lineup needs a big shake up. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

This article semi got to the point - the question is are Twins will to sell off aggressively again.  Jeffers will get pretty good return. Larnach could get a solid player. Ryan is the big ticket and I just don’t see it.  Now I would hate to see this but have to acknowledge that Gomez could be trade chip as well.  Maybe Lewis.  The old team, is being torn down to the studs for a full rebuild. It’s something that’s been needed.  
 

2027 will be the restart.  I don’t think they can be competitive immediately.  
 

Maybe the Twins go on a winning streak prior to the deadline continuing my schizophrenic views on buying or selling. Ultimately for the long run on a season where we couldn’t win it all we did play some competitive baseball. We have been reminded again that you can rebuild a bullpen but it takes time.  The worry is will our fans be as apathetic to the team as the white Sox fans were. We are a year or two behind them on the rebuild process. 

[um_stevenel]

If you’re going to say that cutting payroll benefits the Twins, you need to show an actual benefit to the Twins organization that will eventually improve the performance on the field, because as a Twins fan site, what we predominantly care about is the major league team.

The way I see it. cutting $10 million from the payroll benefits the Pohlad family, not the Twins. It would only benefit the major league team if the Pohlad family somehow reallocates that money to better use for the team.  

Are they going to go $10 million into the red on next year’s roster? 

Are they going to start spending huge on the international market? 

Are they going to spend $10 million on upgrading their facilities somewhere that they were otherwise unable to do?

Are they going to start signing players to extensions that they might not otherwise do? Will they ink Walker Jenkins to an eight-year contract next week after these trades?

In their 40+ years of ownership, I am not aware of them *ever* doing anything remotely like that. Payroll has frequently  been $10s of millions below the league average payroll, and to my recollection. only a handful of times has it gotten to league average, only to quickly be slashed. 

Without stating the benefits to the major league team, they could give these players away for effectively nothing and the benefit of your argument would still be there. And we’d just be treated to lesser quality baseball for the rest of the summer and a lesser chance of making the playoffs and doing something there.

It’s unclear to me how moving further *below* a potential salary floor is a smart move, for one example. 

I know this will sound harsh, but I don’t know a subtle way to dance around it, You don’t have to make billionaire’s arguments for why they should hoard more money for them. You don’t even have to launder their arguments for them. We all understand that Major League Baseball is a business. We know the Twins will not regularly compete with the Yankees and Dodgers for free agents. But there’s a reason professional sports teams never open the books when they come begging for public money for their stadiums, and it’s not because they’re embarrassed at how much they’re losing.

[Parfigliano]

$10 million in payroll is a rounding error to the LAD.  Payroll disparity between teams has to be evened out in the next CBA.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are hurting for position players that can deliver average to above average defense, can run the bases reasonable well, and hit. The current roster has a number of guys who are adequate at hitting, a few that can run, and maybe only two who are good gloves. The talent level is thin. It doesn't do much good to bemoan past inaction (which I have in the past) or present difficulties. The front office needs to make some difficult choices.

I believe that all discussion of a potential lockout next year and any cap talk is pointless because assumptions are made that are distant at best and result in more delay of any real attention to improving talent. Additionally, looking over the list of position players who will be free agents after the close of the 2026 season is dismal. There is no more new frontier. The Twins have to make their own fortune here. MLB is seemingly more balanced than I can remember. Every night there a pile of games that end in one and two run wins/losses. While many are calling for parity in revenue income, the relative parity in play has already arrived. We can say that Sacramento and Minnesota are mediocre teams but both a just a hot streak away from the playoffs, which we have already seen from the declared dead and out of it Red Sox this season. The change in position players and the Twins fortunes are in the hands of the current front office.

[rdehring]

Interesting.  The good news and only thing I know for certain is that in nine days we will know what they did, or didn't do.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins are hurting for position players that can deliver average to above average defense, can run the bases reasonable well, and hit. The current roster has a number of guys who are adequate at hitting, a few that can run, and maybe only two who are good gloves. The talent level is thin. It doesn't do much good to bemoan past inaction (which I have in the past) or present difficulties. The front office needs to make some difficult choices.

I believe that all discussion of a potential lockout next year and any cap talk is pointless because assumptions are made that are distant at best and result in more delay of any real attention to improving talent. Additionally, looking over the list of position players who will be free agents after the close of the 2026 season is dismal. There is no more new frontier. The Twins have to make their own fortune here. MLB is seemingly more balanced than I can remember. Every night there a pile of games that end in one and two run wins/losses. While many are calling for parity in revenue income, the relative parity in play has already arrived. We can say that Sacramento and Minnesota are mediocre teams but both a just a hot streak away from the playoffs, which we have already seen from the declared dead and out of it Red Sox this season. The change in position players and the Twins fortunes are in the hands of the current front office.

The talent is coming it’s just delayed.  You have offensive and plus defensive players ready for the next jump.

SS- Culpepper and Marek Houston.  This might be the best combo of shortstops the Twins have had in the system. Kaelen will come up and be a better defender than anyone else other than maybe Kreidler. Houston is proving he has legit 70 grade defense and both can hit.  
 

Of- Jenkins, Rodriguez - they both need to stay healthy but both are elite when they do. 
 

Catcher - Lackey has played an inning in the org yet but expectations are high. He said he will get a week in Cedar Rapids to ramp up then go to Fort Myers. If it goes well AA is definitely on the menu for next year.  
 

Mendez, Gonzalez, are waiting in the wings.