The Twins Could Walk Away as Big Winners at the Trade Deadline

[laloesch]

4 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

$10 million in payroll is a rounding error to the LAD.  Payroll disparity between teams has to be evened out in the next CBA.

Yep. Until the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, etc.,  are forced into payroll parity via a cap it’s never gonna be truly competitive 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

No offense Sam, but this just doesn’t make any sense from a money saving perspective. Saving $10.5 million is bubpkis money for an MLB team. The only reason that trading makes any sense is to get value for guys who don’t fit in your competitive time window. I would say that’s the best argument you could’ve made. It certainly applies to Jeffers. The problem is that while Ryan could get you a big haul, the other three guys aren’t gonna get you anything of value. None of them is worth an MLB ready talent or anyone ready next year. The best you could hope to do is get lucky on A ball guys who turn out to be something four years from now. More likely you will trade those guys for players who have to be nothing more than organizational filler. Almost as bad, you give a signal to the fans and the teams that you don’t think you’re gonna be competitive anytime soon, not this year, not next year, maybe 2028 if you’re lucky, but more likely 2029 or later. I just think a big selloff is not only a bad baseball move, it’s a bad business move.

I look at this is very similar the idea of trading serious prospects for guys like Sonny Gray or other aging, expensive players. We shouldn’t do that either. This team isn’t good enough to mortgage the future for. If you make trades, you make trades for controllable players or MLB ready prospects, and you trade guys you’re going to lose for nothing at seasons end like Jeffers.

I think the right move here is to do a little buying of controllable players, if you can get them, sell Jeffers because you don’t want him to walk away for nothing, and move on. If you got a couple of prospects, you think can help next year, get them up to the big club to get their feet wet. Ryan is the much tougher call, but I would keep him unless just blown away by a package that includes guys with an MLB track record and then trade him in the off-season. Otherwise, play this one out.

100%
They would save more by playing the rest of their home games during the day on the electricity bill at Target Field.

That would vastly reduce attendance from the meager attendance already.

the same goes for another sell-off. If there’s no reason to show up, why buy a ticket and buy a beer and a hot dog?

as the old saying goes, gotta spend money to make money

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Andy MacPhail said:

After gutting the team & blowing up the BP last deadline & doing nothing in the offseason; this team has done remarkably well, far better than most predicted. Many predicted that they'd compete with CWS for the cellar. Instead, they are somewhat competing with them for the division (They miss evaluating both teams) a lot can still happen. 

I was sharply rebuked saying Zoll has full control in what goes on with the team. IF that is case, then it's all on him in what hasn't been done yet & what kind of trades that will take place. That will dictate if we have a good deadline or not; & less in who we trade or not

Gutting the team? The only guys they traded were bullpen, really. 

They are playing almost exactly how they were predicted to play by most. On pace for mid seventies wins . 

[Hunter4848]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

100%
They would save more by playing the rest of their home games during the day on the electricity bill at Target Field.

That would vastly reduce attendance from the meager attendance already.

the same goes for another sell-off. If there’s no reason to show up, why buy a ticket and buy a beer and a hot dog?

as the old saying goes, gotta spend money to make money

You clearly underestimate the Pohlads understanding of running a MLB team...

[weitz41]

Well, someone had to go for the soft spot in Twins fandom....PAYROLL...

I do like your argument Sam. I just think that savings is more a moot point than anything else. For me it's the lack of reinvestment that makes cutting payroll thoughts so toxic. Outside of Skubal, there's not many difference makers in the 2027 free agent market. There's a good starter or two and plenty of better BP arms. I highly doubt 10 mil or more in 2027 saved will affect the Twins free agent signings for 2027. 

It's just been an odd season. The AL East isn't really all that dominate, The AL West teams may be worse than the AL centrals. The Red Sox and Tigers look like they've woke up. It's just not the time to waste recourses on a chance at 83 wins.

I'm for most of the trades you suggest. I'd hold onto Royce. Trade the rentals. They might fetch a BP arm or two for 2027. Ryan only if it's 2 top 100 prospects plus. Promote some of the AAA guys. Play it out, they could still make the playoffs. 2027 be in it for a WC, 2028 be in it for the division.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

38 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

You clearly underestimate the Pohlads understanding of running a MLB team...

Tom gets it, even if you dont

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/tom-pohlad-strong-words-winning-205459609.html

[Hunter4848]

20 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Tom gets it, even if you dont

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/tom-pohlad-strong-words-winning-205459609.html

The pohlads love a sucker like you!!

[shimrod]

18 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Tom gets it, even if you dont

It's all bluster and bravado until he actually strokes the check. 

Someone more media savvy than me can insert the Judge Smails meme. 

 

[Cris E]

5 hours ago, StiltedGopher said:

Make best offer possible to Jeffers right now.  Jeffers is a high quality catcher and while we can be optimistic about our catcher prospects, realistically they are a couple years out.  I realize there is no chance the Twins will sign Jeffers, but this would be the strongest commitment they could show to the team and fans that they are committed to 2027, 2028.  

Now for reality under the Pohlads, Jeffers is gone after this year.  Trade him now get something, hopefully a useful player for 2027/28.  

Jeffers has only made about $16.8m in his career. He's 29, he's on top of his game, he's one of the best available catchers on the market this winter and he hired Scott Boras to make him some money. Even with a QO there's no way he forgoes the 5 year deal this winter for whatever he can get. And with the CBA open there's no guarantee that the QO compensation remains as lucrative as it is now (ie between rounds 1 and 2.)

Between that and Caratini playing well enough during the hamate injury, I think most folks are comfortable trading him now in ways that they cannot see trading Joe Ryan. So we send him out.

That leaves Joe Ryan and a couple other pieces in play that might draw a real return, like a solid hitter in Larnach or *maybe* a Josh Bell or Austin Martin.  The rest will not bring back much at all unless paired with prospects, and so we should mostly consider them as roster spots to be managed (or guys we like that could benefit from a change, eg Wallner.)

I keep Ryan because I really think some form of floor or minimum payroll tax is coming and he's a guy I'd prefer to pay now as family rather than try to replace on the free agent market. I send Jeffers out and I pair some others like Martin or Lewis with youth to get controllable SP and bullpen arms. I keep an eye open for a good young 1B that can thump. 

They can win at the deadline by making room for the incredible talent they have backing up in St Paul, by not throwing away this gift of a terrible AL in 2026, and by building on what they've learned in 2026 as they go into 2027: Keaschall is an OF, Taj is a front of rotation guy. Morris will be really good in the pen. Lee is not your SS. Lewis is not your 3B.  Wallner seems done. Larnach is a good platoon OF. Not all of these are news, but they were hypotheses that needed proving this year.  There's still time to write the book on Martin, Rodan, Lewis at 1B, and get a read on more kids. 

 

[Sjoski]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

$10 million in payroll is a rounding error to the LAD.  Payroll disparity between teams has to be evened out in the next CBA.

I second that! 

The disparity in MLB is absurd:

The Dodgers' luxury tax bill alone (around $160 million+) is bigger than the entire active payrolls of about a dozen MLB franchises, including the Twins.

[Sjoski]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gutting the team? The only guys they traded were bullpen, really. 

They trade Harrison Bader, Willie Castro, and Carlos Correa.....3 everyday players... 1/3 of the line-up..... How many guys do you have to trade to officially "gut" a team? 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Sjoski said:

They trade Harrison Bader, Willie Castro, and Carlos Correa.....3 everyday players... 1/3 of the line-up..... How many guys do you have to trade to officially "gut" a team? 

Fair. One of those guys was actually here past last year, which is what I thought you meant, that it was gutted for this year? But if you meant for last year, yes.