Joe Ryan and the Elephant in the Room

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

The MLB trade deadline is a little over two months from now, on August 3rd. That seems like a long time, but then again, Opening Day was that long ago and it feels like yesterday. As much as we might want to savor the current moment — a team playing well enough to stay relevant in a lackluster AL landscape, and a #1 starter who's unlocking yet another level of excellence — there are realities bearing down that the Twins front office cannot afford to brush aside.

Joe Ryan is pitching as well as ever. He was good before the elbow scare that forced him out of a game in early May. and he's somehow been even better since. His 2.1 fWAR leads all Twins players and ranks fifth among MLB starters.

If the Twins are to stay competitive and play meaningful games into September, as Tom Pohlad has decreed, they'll need Ryan to do it, especially if he keeps pitching like this. He's their best player. The quandary at hand: he's also their best trade chip, and their biggest opportunity to bolster the rebuild effort in profound ways.

While they might not like to utter the word, this team is rebuilding. They're transitioning from a fading old guard (Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner) to an impending prospect wave. At last year's deadline, they dealt several key relievers for players who — while varying degrees of MLB-ready — were targeted for their longer-term control. They have to be looking ahead, but maybe not THAT far ahead.

This is the emotional tug-of-war facing Minnesota's front office over the next two months. Ryan isn’t just the Twins’ best starter; he’s the kind of pitcher contenders empty farm systems to acquire. He’s under control through 2027. He misses bats, limits walks, thrives in big moments, and increasingly looks like someone capable of starting Game 1 of a playoff series for a true World Series threat.

Those pitchers rarely become available with this much control remaining. When they do, the return can reshape an organization.

That’s the cold logic. The perspective of the brain. But the heart might tell us that the Twins aren’t buried. They’re hovering around contention in an American League where mediocrity has become the norm. A good month could put them firmly in the playoff picture. 

Trading Ryan while meaningful baseball remains on the table would feel, to many fans and players, like surrender. Again. After years of payroll cuts, injuries, and organizational drift, it would be another unmistakable signal that the franchise is prioritizing tomorrow over today. Same old, same old under "new leadership."

Cold logic has its validity though. Pitchers are volatile assets, and Ryan already provided a scare this season. Having already seen Pablo López go down, the Twins know better than anyone how quickly the value of a frontline starter can evaporate. Ryan has previously dealt with shoulder and groin injuries, and every additional inning carries risk.

That’s what makes this such an organizational crossroads. The heart says you owe it to the clubhouse and demoralized fanbase to keep pushing forward in a surprisingly open AL field. The brain says this may be the rare moment when timing, value and market demand align perfectly to accelerate the next truly sustainable contention window. 

And the better Joe Ryan pitches between now and July, the louder that elephant in the room becomes.

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[Old Twins Hat]

Question:  If Ryan is "under control" through 2027, why do the Twins need to make the move at the deadline in 2026?

[mickster]

Value in a trade is greater at the deadline this year as an additional year of control is something teams will want.   Still a value next year, just not going to bring as much value back.   Personally I would love to see Tom P but the money where his mouth is and extend both Ryan and Pablo NOW.   Jeffers as well, although with him being a Boras client and having the year he was having - that ship may have sailed.   You can never have too much pitching and signing these two gives us plenty of depth to maintain a competitive team as the youngsters trickle in.    The possible WorkStopage next year is a real thing and will affect a lot along the way.  The Big boys will still go for it, but smaller market teams will have to play this close to the vest

[Jack Pine]

If the 2027 season is lost due to a strike it changes the equation.

[Nshore]

When they had Lopez, Ryan and Sonny Gray at the top of the rotation the Twins had the pitching foundation to really change their fortunes.  But through rich contracts and injuries that kind of set up is usually going to be a flash in the pan for lower budget teams.  Ryan probably already has his bags packed.

[Patzky]

Connor showed us last night that no matter how many dynamite prospects you might get for an established star, they will never be sure things (injury always the wild card). You want many possibilities, or a stone cold lock. I have every faith that Pablo will return this time next year and he good as he was previously. Financially which bullet to bite, and how will guys like Byron respond to any such move..

[tony&rodney]

31 minutes ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Question:  If Ryan is "under control" through 2027, why do the Twins need to make the move at the deadline in 2026?

They absolutely do not need to trade Joe Ryan at the deadline. There is a key piece missing to any discussion about moving Ryan in a transaction. What is the return? The Twins do not need more DH type players. They do not need any more back of the rotation pitchers. The club has a plethora of iffy LH hitting OF prospects. Finally, the organization has more than enough utility infielders. If the Twins can somehow finagle a top prospect from a team, even if a couple of Twins prospects are added to Ryan, make a deal. I don't want the team to add any more "maybe" players because just getting a draft choice is as good as those maybes. So .... strong return = yes .... weak return = no.

[Blyleven2011]

The Joe Ryan experience  , he definitely is a winner and given the team and fans everything a winner is expected to ...

Ryan is an asset and pitching has been our strength the past few years , do we have the pitching to replace Ryan if traded , I'd say yes if everyone is healthy ...

Do you trade Ryan for the future in prospects , you better get it right in a 5 for 1 trade ...

[Wedman13]

43 minutes ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Question:  If Ryan is "under control" through 2027, why do the Twins need to make the move at the deadline in 2026?

Surely don't have to but he's at a peak and every days diminished value.  Performance, injury, affordability.  Would you pay the same for a car 1 year older with 50k miles versus 1 year newer with 35k?  No.

im no expert, but its kinda negotiation 101

[rdehring]

Seems like an easy situation for management.  Talk to Joe in July with the intent to sign him to an extension.  If he and his agent say no, or their demands are unrealistic the Twins need to attempt to trade him before the deadline.  But only trade him if they get an excellent return, including a player or two who are ready to join the big club.  If they don't get that return, try again this winter at either an extension or trade.  Unfortunately, as mentioned above no one knows what will be happening this winter so a real decision is best made come July.

[mike8791]

 Well said, Nick!  What to do with Ryan is the key question for this FO.  If they think this team is a real contender this season, then they should keep him.  But in reality, this team, while playing better than most expected, is a pretender in 2026.  Their putrid offense and bullpen are all too apparent to even the most casual observer.  The Twins started rebuilding last August and should continue this trading season.  Maximize Ryan's value now and the Twins could greatly improve their chances next season, even without Ryan.  Adding some power bats and a closer would greatly bolster this team next season, especially w/Lopez's return, continued promise from Bradley, Abel and Mathews and perhaps the emergence of Rojas.

No idea exactly who the Twins should target as a trade partner, but from my vantage point here in Chicago, the Cubs seem an ideal target.  They badly need an ace to remain in the race and they have some nice offensive players on the verge.  Just to throw out a good package, how about Shaw, Long and Palencia for Ryan?  This trade would help both teams.  There are many more possibilities but this FO must do something to progress to the next level.  One thing we know they won't do and that is fork over big contracts for their star players or any other top FAs.  Trading Ryan is the only logical step they can take.

 

[Trov]

 

52 minutes ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Question:  If Ryan is "under control" through 2027, why do the Twins need to make the move at the deadline in 2026?

You will get a greater return this year because he would not be just a rental but you get the rest of this year and a full year next year.  Teams will be more willing to give up bigger prospects for that.  Additionally, when you have that full year, you can put in a qualifying offer so if he does sign elsewhere you get draft comp back, which increases what a team will give up in trade, if you only get for half year you do not get to put on the offer and he walks for nothing. 

[Dman]

Yeah the 2027 work stoppage does make you think twice about what to do with Ryan.  On the one hand it seems like they could move on from him with Pablo, Ober, Bradley, Abel, Matthews, Prielipp and Rojas in the wings performing at the MLB level. With SWR and a few others in long relief roles that could possibly be 5th starters in a pinch. If you trade Ryan for another close to ready arm plus extra the Twins would have plenty of quality arms to throw out there in a five man rotation with Quick, Soto and Hill hopefully working their way to AA this year they would also have some backup arms not too far away. 

Still replacing a bit of a unicorn arm who when dialed in, is ace quality is no easy task. And if you decide to get the most value you can for him at the deadline what is it that you would be looking for without worsening the log jams that are already there? In the infield we already have Lee, Keacshal and Lewis with Culpepper nearly ready, with first round pick Houston not too far away and Ben Ross who has been looking really good lately not to mention they :Like Kriedler a bunch, but maybe Ross takes that role? So who is moving out to make room for some new guy added by trade?

In the outfield We have a lot of prospects waiting for their turn in Roden, Rodriguez, Gonzalez and our number one prospect Jenkins.  Not to mention we still have Buxton, Larnach, Martin, and Wallner.  With other guys like Fedko and Mendez that could fill in.  Unless they are getting rid of guys there's no room in the outfield right now.

So what would you trade Ryan for that you need more than Ryan at the deadline?  It would have to be a young (HS) top 25 prospect most likely. Someone or someone's to come up with the next wave.  Still they could just hang onto Ryan and go for a comp pick after the 2027 season as well and get their high school guy then.

I'm just not sure what they can get that would be worth losing Ryan.  I'd guess more young pitching, but it's incredibly hard to develop that into a Joe Ryan type pitcher.  Still he is an asset and the Twins will have to decide how they feel about competing this year and in 2027 to decide if they value the prospect haul they could get versus what could happen this year and in 2027.  We'll see what they decide to do.

[Trov]

It will be interesting what happens over the next couple months to see how the team feels about keeping him all year and possible off-season trade or resign.  Falvey would have tried to sign to like a 3 year deal, of which would be rejected and he would have delt him most likely.  Will the new FO give a longer offer? 

Based on Ryan's age he will be 31 at FA time, he will most likely be seeking 5 plus year deal.  I personally, would never want to give a pitcher of his age that long of a deal.  If we are competitive this year going into July I could see the FO keeping him around all year and reevaluating in the off-season. 

If you can get him on a Lopez type extension 3 years at cost you willing to pay I would look to lock him up, but history says most pitchers do not live up to their contracts after age 30 if they sign long term deals.  The main ones that do are HOF level guys generally. 

[JD-TWINS]

Can the Team stay where they are at currently through July 15th? …..,,,not fighting for the Division but within 3-4 games of the 5th-6th Wild Card.

If Jeffers is back at 85% of what he’s done to date in ‘26, it’s a big shot in the arm.

If Abel or Festa is able to pitch at a competent level by July 15, something good happens to the PEN………,probable that Prielipp gets moved to pitch more often but just an inning or two at a time……or, if it’s Festa, he’s in the PEN.

Nothing is etched in stone ……. nobody knows if the pessimists are correct or if the optimists are correct? IF they are “in the mix” in 45 days, will Tom Pohlad promote buying a BAT via trade as the deadline approaches?

Nobody trades an everyday position player of value if they are in the race …….. nobody is trading for Ryan that’s not in the race…….. “prospects” to another team to allow for a real possibility at the Playoffs this season, to me the only way to be “competitive” through September……if anyone cares?

To me, Arcia & Gray can handle SS for 4 months or until Culpepper is called up. Keaschall isn’t going anywhere in ‘26 (ride or die w/him). So, Kreidler is the OF depth along with another step shown last night, Clemens in CF ……… pretty clear sign that nobody with a TC hat wants to see Outman in the line-up any longer!

Gonzales back up for a DFA’d Outman once he’s eligible to come back …,… 10 day waiting period?

Gotta happen. CLEMENS in CF last night - pretty clear sign!!!

[farmerguychris]

Tom says he's willing to spend money on the team when appropriate.  This is the kind of guy we'd be wishing we had if he played elsewhere - spend the money to keep him.  You don't let talent get away if you actually care about winning.  Do we really want to go back to being a farm team for big market clubs?

[GNess]

It is understood that lower budget teams and under performing teams trade off their veteran assets at the deadline for a collection of prospects in the future hope that these prospects will produce a winner down the line.

However, the success rate with this strategy (or formula) is mixed at best. It requires an ability to evaluate, project and develop young talent. It is open for debate that the Twins can successfully execute such a strategy, in particular  the development piece.

Many clubs are resistant to trading away their best players and maintain a core to. build around.

I would argue that Ryan if he is interested in staying with the Twins as a core asset going forward the Twins should find a way to pay him. (The new CBA will hopefully enforce a much higher floor for salary spending per team.)

 

 

[terrydactyls]

The front office should be talking to Ryan's agent about an extension right now.  That's the biggest question the Twins have about what to do at the trade deadline.  If the extension is possible, sign him.  If they so no, then put him on the block now and create a bidding war.  If Ryan leaves, the Twins might only lose half of this season, but, in all likelihood, only about half of 2027.  If the Twins wait until the offseason, Ryan's value drops immensely.  How much would another team give up for just half a season?

@DMAN asked what would the Twins look for in a trade (and he may be completely correct, but I feel differently 😀).  He stated that in the infieldthe Twins already have Lee, Keaschall, and Lewis with Culpepper in the wings.  Lewis and Culpepper are in the minors and Lee and Keaschall might soon join them.  The Twins need improvement (defense also).  In the outfield, he says the Twins already have Buxton (injured), Larnach and Martin (decent players) and Wallner (in the minors).  The Twins could use help (the prospects are still a huge unknown).  The pitching looks to be in decent shape for 2027 and beyond.  

So, in conclusion my fellow readers, if an extension is out of the equation and if a strong offer is put on the table, I feel the Twins should take it.  And thus, the wandering thoughts of an old man who remembers Reno Bertoia at 3B opening day 1961 have come to an end.  Now I have to go yell at some kids to stay off my lawn.

[mickster]

2 hours ago, Nshore said:

When they had Lopez, Ryan and Sonny Gray at the top of the rotation the Twins had the pitching foundation to really change their fortunes.  But through rich contracts and injuries that kind of set up is usually going to be a flash in the pan for lower budget teams.  Ryan probably already has his bags packed.

I still think that the Rocco way of managing his SP went a long way to Sonny wanting out.

[NYCTK]

22 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The front office should be talking to Ryan's agent about an extension right now. 

Don't disagree. 5 years 150 million is the conversation. If the Twins aren't anywhere near that then the conversation is over. 

[Mike Sixel]

51 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Tom says he's willing to spend money on the team when appropriate.  This is the kind of guy we'd be wishing we had if he played elsewhere - spend the money to keep him.  You don't let talent get away if you actually care about winning.  Do we really want to go back to being a farm team for big market clubs?

It's how Tampa and Milwaukee are thriving. Trading guys and getting guys back that are cheap. This ownership group has been cutting costs for three years do we think they'll sign a pitcher into his mid thirties? 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, mickster said:

I still think that the Rocco way of managing his SP went a long way to Sonny wanting out.

And yet, that was gray's best year and got him paid.....

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, GNess said:

It is understood that lower budget teams and under performing teams trade off their veteran assets at the deadline for a collection of prospects in the future hope that these prospects will produce a winner down the line.

However, the success rate with this strategy (or formula) is mixed at best. It requires an ability to evaluate, project and develop young talent. It is open for debate that the Twins can successfully execute such a strategy, in particular  the development piece.

Many clubs are resistant to trading away their best players and maintain a core to. build around.

I would argue that Ryan if he is interested in staying with the Twins as a core asset going forward the Twins should find a way to pay him. (The new CBA will hopefully enforce a much higher floor for salary spending per team.)

 

 

What's the success rate for mid market teams not trading guys? Frankly, it's not good either. 

[Tibs]

Everything I've read has said Joe Ryan has no interest in an extension. If that's true, the only logic to keeping him beyond this trade deadline is if you think the Twins have a shot at the World Series before his contract is up. Does anyone here think that is a possibility?

I would hate to see him go as he's a great player and I enjoy watching him pitch. Obviously depends on the return and all those caveats. For organizations like the Twins trading players in this scenario is exactly how we have to operate. Hopefully get multiple good prospects in return with one or two ready/close to MLB ready. Then it's time for the younger guys to fill in the rotation.

[Nick Nelson]

17 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Don't disagree. 5 years 150 million is the conversation. If the Twins aren't anywhere near that then the conversation is over. 

Are we convinced this is the right path forward, even if he's willing to accept it? The track record of paying 30+ year old pitchers that kind of money is not good. Large-market teams can afford it, which is why they're basically the only ones who make such deals.

Even if payroll goes up somewhat that's a big fraction annually going to one aging starter, for a franchise that (rightfully) prides itself on pitching development. 

Personally, I think the options are: trade him or plan to offer a QO following 2027. But as mentioned by commenters above, there's just so much uncertainty with next season and the CBA that there's major risk in not charting a decisive path now.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Others have correctly summarize the conundrum. The hard part for me is that if you trade him at the 2026 deadline to get prospects; not established major league players, prospects. That inevitably sets back the contention timeline by at least a year or two. Now maybe that's the reality anyway but I think this team is actually closer than that now. What this team really needs is an established middle of the order bat plays anywhere except centerfield, and a proven closer. We will not get either of those things if we trade Joe Ryan at the deadline. The most we will get are to prospects who could potentially become those two things in time with the amount of that time being in question.

If it were up to me (and it clearly is not), I would take a different strategy. I would sign both Ryan and Lopez for at least three years if they would take that in five years if I had to do it and I would be willing to pay each of them $25-$30 million a year because that's the going price for pitchers of that quality. I would commit to those 2 and Bradley as the rotation core for the next 3-5 years. I would then trade one or two young up-and-coming type starters to a non-contending team that has a middle of the order bat to trade. For example, Mick Abel for Xavier Edwards or Heliot Ramos, maybe even two of them like Abel and Ramos for Zack Neto and Jo Adell or something like that.  In other words, trade young cost controlled pitching for young cost controlled hitting. Be a deadline buyer, not a seller. Run a payroll that has 3 guys making 60% of the money - Ryan, Lopez, Buxton - and use the young hitters around them.  

If we can't do that, then I say wait for the off season to trade Ryan. The CBA negotiations may complicate things unfortunately, but in a normal off-season that's the one chance we would have to trade a Ryan for an established middle of the order bat plus a decent closer. We will not get that the deadline.

[farmerguychris]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's how Tampa and Milwaukee are thriving. Trading guys and getting guys back that are cheap. This ownership group has been cutting costs for three years do we think they'll sign a pitcher into his mid thirties? 

I get that.... But what have Tampa and Milwaukee achieved by operating that way..... Neither have ever won a world series.  Isn't that the goal?  We have a known commodity in Ryan who can be a starter in the playoffs - if we trade him, we're hoping to get someone as good as Joe, but there is no guarantee the player we get in return ever even plays in the majors.  Has this Front Office proven they can be trusted to get a good return for Joe - I think that is a valid question.

[LA Vikes Fan]

6 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Are we convinced this is the right path forward, even if he's willing to accept it? The track record of paying 30+ year old pitchers that kind of money is not good. Large-market teams can afford it, which is why they're basically the only ones who make such deals.

Even if payroll goes up somewhat that's a big fraction annually going to one aging starter, for a franchise that (rightfully) prides itself on pitching development. 

Personally, I think the options are: trade him or plan to offer a QO following 2027. But as mentioned by commenters above, there's just so much uncertainty with next season and the CBA that there's major risk in not charting a decisive path now.

By the way, I think this accurately expresses the real advantage big market teams have, especially the Dodgers. It's not just that they can pay for expensive players, it's that they can pay for several expensive players and absorb injuries to those players. Look at the Dodgers rotation. They are paying $25m plus to Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, neither of whom is pitching currently. Glasnow has never pitched more than 134 innings in a season, Snell more than 134 innings only twice in his 10 year career. The Donders can afford to pay them even though they know they are unlikely to get more than half of a season out of either because they can also pay Yamamoto, Ohtani, and Sasaki, and either fill in with guys making $15-$20 million a year or from their farm system. They can pay for Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernandez without worrying how they will be impacted if one of them (like Betts this year) gets hurt or has a bad year. They just have a bigger margin to work with which makes consistent contention much more possible.

[LA Vikes Fan]

One other question. Has Ryan ever said he's unwilling to sign an extension with the Twins? I've seen that written here but I don't recall ever seeing Ryan himself or his agent say that, or say that he doesn't want to stay in Minnesota. That may be because I've just not seen everything so please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm wondering if he really is just not interested in staying or if that's just an assumption people are making. 

Obviously, if he's not interested in staying or signing an extension this gets to be a much easier decision. If there is no chance of keeping him, and the only question is can you get a better return at the 2026 deadline, the 2027 off-season, or the 2027 deadline. Then you find out what's available this year at the deadline and if it's not overwhelming, wait and trade him in the off-season.

[Patzky]

40 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And yet, that was gray's best year and got him paid.....

You're never sure but I'd take Joe 27 and Pablo 27 over Sonny 27