New StatCast Metrics Point to James Outman as Potential Breakout Star

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images ​

Every spring, a handful of players force organizations to make uncomfortable decisions. They may not have the prospect pedigree or the lengthy big-league résumé, but something in their profile demands a closer look. Sometimes it is a mechanical tweak. Sometimes it is an approach change. Increasingly, it is something that shows up in the data before it shows up in the box score.

That is where the newest public-facing metrics from Baseball Savant begin to matter more than ever. The Athletic recently highlighted Bat Speed, Swing Tilt, and Intercept Point as part of a growing toolkit that can help teams identify future impact hitters even in the smallest samples. These numbers are not perfect in isolation, but together they can start to paint a predictive picture of what a player might become before traditional production ever catches up.

Swing tilt, in particular, has become an increasingly useful piece of the puzzle. A higher tilt swing is generally more capable of lifting the baseball and doing damage on pitches located in the lower part of the strike zone. That aligns naturally with the movement profile of many breaking balls. It is not surprising that many of the game’s best power hitters generate their thump with a steeper bat path designed to create loft.

Of course, there is another path to offensive success. Hitters with lower tilt swings tend to produce more contact because that flatter bat path plays better against fastballs that enter the zone on a more direct plane. That trade-off between contact and power has historically made bat-path evaluation difficult across the league.

Multiple MLB front offices have wrestled with grading swings in a way that fairly captures both outcomes. The research group at Driveline Baseball sought to bridge that gap by separating bat-path evaluation into two metrics. Contact+ attempts to measure a hitter’s ability to consistently put the bat on the ball. Power+ focuses on their ability to drive it with authority.

When looking at last season’s leaderboards through that lens, one member of the Minnesota Twins quietly stands out as a sleeper candidate for more.

James Outman posted a 28 Contact+ alongside a 61 Power+. That profile aligns with what his career 34.5% strikeout rate already suggests. He is not built to be a high-contact hitter. The model sees it, and so do the results. However, the encouraging piece of the puzzle is the combination of bat speed and swing tilt that gives him a legitimate chance to impact the baseball when he does connect.

Outman demonstrated that power potential throughout his time in the minors, including a .945 OPS and 131 wRC+ at Triple-A last season. Those numbers are not just the product of favorable environments. They reflect a swing that is capable of generating damage in a way that traditional contact-oriented profiles cannot.

There is also a practical roster element at play. Minnesota could use a defensively capable fourth outfielder who can handle center field on occasion. Outman is out of minor league options, which means a strong showing this spring could force the organization to carry him rather than risk losing him on waivers. The other outfielders on the 40-man roster include Alan Roden, Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Gabriel Gonzalez.

There will likely be room for two of those names on the Opening Day roster, with Martin and Outman having the inside track at the start of spring training. In a roster battle that often comes down to marginal differences, a player with real underlying power traits can quickly become the more intriguing choice over a younger but lower-impact alternative.

The strikeouts may never disappear. That is the cost of doing business with a swing designed to lift and drive the baseball. But in an era where teams are increasingly comfortable trading some contact for impact, Outman’s underlying profile suggests there may be more upside than his surface numbers currently indicate.

Recently, I reviewed the Twins trade that brought Outman to Minnesota from Los Angeles. It was starting to look like this might be a trade that didn’t help either organization. However, if Bat Speed, Swing Tilt, and Intercept Point truly are as predictive as early research suggests, the Twins may already have a potential breakout candidate hiding in plain sight.

Can Outman be a breakout player for the Twins in 2026? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

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[TJSweens]

The best indicator that Outman has already played his best baseball is that Friedman traded him for a rental reliever. Friedman doesn't trade a meaningful talent for Brock Stewart. 

[Nshore]

A better statistical indicator is "release point" - as in release him immediately.

[Eris]

“The strikeouts may never disappear. That's the cost of doing business with a swing designed to lift and drive the baseball. But in an era in which teams are increasingly comfortable trading some contact for impact,“

if you look at the top 30 HR hitters from the 2025 season, only 2 players, Riley Greene and James Wood had a 30% K rate.  The results are same when viewed by ISO.  Similarly, looking at K% of qualified hitters from the 2025 season these max out at around 32% (Ryan McMahon and James Wood).  
 

My translation of this is that strikeouts matter and it is difficult being a productive and regular MLB player with a K% greater than the low 30s%.  As this Thread relates to James Outman, as he doesn’t provide elite defense I don’t see how there is a future for him in MLB unless he can substantially reduce his strike outs.  Data is from FanGraphs.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&sortcol=10&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

[Mahoning]

He is 29. He has proven himself useless with the bat. I like the flow and he may be a great guy, but, please. Whiff.

[mluebker]

Too much emphasis on what statistics guesstimate could happen and not enough focus on actual performance. Don’t the Twins already have enough guys who could be mediocre ballplayers if they’d just measure up to their statistical potential?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

through the eyes of statcast

 

translates to GUI

[MGX]

I follow both the Twins & the Dodgers & can say nothing appears to be different. In '23 it was a nice season, but since then it has been a continual struggle at the plate. In '23 his K% was 31.9% & was already discussed as something he needed to improve. Since then it's been worse - '24 - 35.3% & in '25 - 42.6%. Additionally, he is a poor fit for this team as there multiple options to fill his potential role of 4th OF. Why would any team keep Outman over players like Roden, G Gonzalez & especially E Rod. We need to find out what we have in those young players whereas we know what we have in Outman & at this point it's not good enough to make an MLB roster. 

[Jeff K]

Yup, I don't care.  He has proven he is not a major league player.  Cut him.  And don't let him take up a slot with St. Paul.

[Whitey333]

OMG another example of analytics on steroids.  Yes even the goofiness is affected by dreamed up and stretched out stats designed to make a player look a lot better than he is.  Who cares if he doesn't have options left?  Who cares if they cut him and lose him for nothing?  Let him go.  

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

“The strikeouts may never disappear. That's the cost of doing business with a swing designed to lift and drive the baseball. But in an era in which teams are increasingly comfortable trading some contact for impact,“

if you look at the top 30 HR hitters from the 2025 season, only 2 players, Riley Greene and James Wood had a 30% K rate.  The results are same when viewed by ISO.  Similarly, looking at K% of qualified hitters from the 2025 season these max out at around 32% (Ryan McMahon and James Wood).  
 

My translation of this is that strikeouts matter and it is difficult being a productive and regular MLB player with a K% greater than the low 30s%.  As this Thread relates to James Outman, as he doesn’t provide elite defense I don’t see how there is a future for him in MLB unless he can substantially reduce his strike outs.  Data is from FanGraphs.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&sortcol=10&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

He is with TC.  For a nothing player that's out of options that's a great undeserved path to a MLB roster.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

My fear in all of this type of analysis is holding on to Outman for fear that he becomes a Rooker, Dovetailing with the Diamond Centric article on the development curve.

Outman is at least a decent fielder, but with the glut of lefty corner outfielders in the bigs and the imminent arrival of outfield prospects, something has to give. This team has to offload one or more of them. If that’s Outman or Larnach, or Martin, none of those 3 should have big league time over Roden

[MinnInPa]

someone needs to check their eyes

[miracleb]

An easy call.  If he has a fabulous spring training he SHOULD be the 4th outfielder.  If just an average spring training, he will easily pass thru waivers and we can park him in St Paul.

[The Great Hambino]

Unless these figures changed significantly at the end of last year after he came over from the Dodgers, Outman's track record isn't exactly a glowing endorsement of their predictive abilities.  As has been said upthread, he was given away by the Dodgers for a broken reliever.

He really needs to hope that the Twins don't see Roden or Martin as viable medium-term CF options.  Being the only one in the system that's not Buxton or someone subject to service time manipulation is his best path to making the opening day roster

[USAFChief]

This is the most important article written about the Twins first half in history.

[killertwinfan]

It’s painful to review this lineup.  It’s all we can do at his point. Unfortunately, it only makes the outlook more dreadful.  

[NYCTK]

For this season the decision is obvious - you trade Buxton and then it doesn't matter that Outman is lying around. But that's not happening, so in reality it doesn't really matter that much. Martin and Roden aren't actually CF so having a CF around isn't a terrible idea.

I'm not going to get upset at a fringe roster player on a 72 win team. 

[Coach Wheels]

11 minutes ago, killertwinfan said:

It’s painful to review this lineup.  It’s all we can do at his point. Unfortunately, it only makes the outlook more dreadful.  

Optimism is not growing roots in my summer thoughts on this baseball team. 

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, miracleb said:

An easy call.  If he has a fabulous spring training he SHOULD be the 4th outfielder.  If just an average spring training, he will easily pass thru waivers and we can park him in St Paul.

He's already proven he can beat up on the AA and AAA pitchers you often see in spring training. He can't make consistent contact against MLB-level pitching. He's a waiver-wire level talent.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Nshore said:

A better statistical indicator is "release point" - as in release him immediately.

Okay that was pretty funny. 

[Senior Softball Guy]

If Byron does get injured, then you can bring up Emma. I would bet  the farm OUTman  passes through waivers. His AB's were not just bad they were brutal. 

[TJSweens]

7 minutes ago, Senior Softball Guy said:

If Byron does get injured, then you can bring up Emma. I would bet  the farm OUTman  passes through waivers. His AB's were not just bad they were brutal. 

Seriously, could there be a worse name for a hitter?

[Cris E]

I always wondered if it was true that big power, uppercut swings need to play more often to stay effective. It seems guys like that have to live on the edge of perfection to get hits, and stepping in once or twice a week for a half dozen ABs would make that really hard. If Outman is going to be a fourth OF and PH then you have to wonder if that's the right profile for that bench role. 

[Cris E]

Just now, TJSweens said:

Seriously, could there be a worse name for a hitter?

Well the Twins were the team that brought Balfour to MLB....

[saviking]

But don't you have to actually make contact with the ball for the swing plain to work ..

[Over The Hill Again]

Man I just hope we’re not talking next spring about the 350 PA’s Outman got ala 2024 Margot…

[Parfigliano]

24 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

Seriously, could there be a worse name for a hitter?

Or a more accurate one.

[OregonTwinsFan]

Outman is terrible. DFA and release him.

[LambchoP]

The only thing that matters are ACTUAL numbers, and Outman is not a starter. He would maybe even pass through waivers. He has no business taking at bats away from Martin, Roden, E Rod, Jenkins, Gonzalez, etc....