What Comes Next for Twins and Joe Ryan?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

For the second time in three years, the Twins appear poised to take a player all the way through the arbitration process. Minnesota and Joe Ryan were unable to bridge a relatively small gap before the exchange of figures last Thursday, with the club submitting a $5.85 million salary and Ryan countering at $6.35 million. If neither side changes course, an arbitration panel will choose one of those two numbers, and that decision will determine Ryan’s pay for the 2026 season.

While teams and players are technically allowed to keep negotiating after figures are exchanged, the Twins have historically treated that deadline as a firm stopping point for one-year deals. That appears to be the case again here, meaning the next step is a hearing—unless a multiyear agreement unexpectedly materializes. Club policy does allow for longer-term contracts after the deadline, though there has been no indication that discussions are trending in that direction.

From a performance standpoint, Ryan’s case is straightforward. The 29-year-old just completed the best season of his major-league career, finishing with a 3.42 ERA while striking out 194 hitters across 171 innings. He made his first All-Star team and made 30 starts for the first time, firmly establishing himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm. That production came amid frequent trade speculation at last year’s trade deadline, which continued into the winter, though the front office has repeatedly said it does not intend to move core players right now.

This is only Ryan’s second trip through arbitration eligibility. A year ago, he and the Twins avoided a hearing by agreeing to a one-year, $3-million contract, his first significant payday after never earning more than $780,000 in a season. Even at the higher of the two arbitration figures this time around, Ryan would land right around $6 million for 2026, a sizable raise but a modest payday for a pitcher of his caliber.

Unless he is traded or signs an extension, Ryan will be arbitration-eligible again in 2027. He's not scheduled to reach free agency until after that season. In the short term, that gives the Twins control. In the longer view, it emphasizes the importance of how this relationship is managed now.

It is impossible to ignore the optics. The difference between the two sides is $500,000, a relatively small sum in today’s game. Ryan is widely regarded as one of the better starters in the league, and metrics back that up. FanGraphs estimates that he has generated more than $90 million in on-field value in his career, while earning just over $7 million. That gap speaks to how arbitration and team control suppress salaries, but when a team chooses to fight over such a narrow margin, it invites criticism, too.

The Twins do have precedent on which to stand. They have gone to hearings in the past (most notably with Kyle Gibson late in his tenure), in part to give the front office experience with the process. Minnesota’s last hearing was with Nick Gordon in 2024. Gordon filed for $1.25 million, and the Twins offered $900,000. Minnesota won, and Gordon was denied entry into the seven-figure salary club. With changes in leadership over the last year, it is fair to wonder if that institutional mindset still plays a role, even if there is no clear indication that Ryan’s case is being used as a training exercise.

There is also the human element. Ryan was candid following last year’s trade deadline sell-off, acknowledging that the stretch run was mentally challenging once postseason hopes disappeared. Illness affected several of his starts, and after one outing in Toronto, he admitted that summoning motivation was sometimes difficult.

“I felt like I was in shock for a couple of weeks after that, and then it kind of settled in,” Ryan said. “[My future] is so far out of my control. But it seems like the team is making good decisions from the front office and coaching staff down, to give ourselves a chance to win a couple more ballgames. … I think the team’s going to be in a really good spot going forward."

That lack of control remains. If the Twins fall out of contention in 2026, Ryan could once again find himself in the thick of trade discussions, either during the season or next winter. Conversely, if Minnesota hopes to extend him or keep him beyond his remaining years of control, the way this arbitration case plays out could matter. Hearings are adversarial by design, requiring the club to argue why a player does not deserve more. Even when the disparity between bids by the parties involved is modest, that process can linger.

Adding another wrinkle is a note from The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman. He shared on social media that a team source said that Ryan is not expected to make an appearance at TwinsFest. Ryan was on the preliminary list of players who were expected to attend, but his name has been removed without an explanation. 

For now, what comes next is straightforward. Unless there is a late pivot, the Twins and Ryan will present their cases to an arbitration panel, and one number will win. What that decision means for the relationship moving forward, and whether a dispute over $500,000 ends up costing the Twins something far more valuable down the road, remains uncertain.

---

Should the Twins have agreed to Ryan’s salary? What’s the long-term plan with Ryan and the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

View full article

[jmlease1]

It seems pretty reasonable to not ask a player you're going to an arbitration hearing to schlep up for TwinsFest? He's not actually under contract, things might be a little testy, why add to it by asking him to do TwinsFest?

The whole arbitration process is weird and a little stupid. It is doing what it's design to do: keep salaries down for young rising talent, while still guaranteeing systemic raises for players regardless of performance. But it doesn't make much sense from a logical standpoint when people think about an arbitration means in the regular context of the word.

A little surprised the Twins couldn't meet in the middle with Ryan and avoid the hearing, but who knows what's going on behind the scenes? Maybe Twins management was stupid and is trying to keep his salary under $6M for...reasons. Maybe his agent's negotiating position has been "$6.2M is our best and final". Maybe the MLBPA wants him to be a test case this year. Maybe Ryan wants out of MN because he's deeply offended about being pulled from a start and wasn't allowed to fire the pitching staff when Rocco was fired. Maybe Joe Ryan wants out because he loved Rocco and has been reading Twins Dailey and no longer wants to be associated with Twins fandom. Who knows.

The reality is, the Twins were never going to get Ryan to sign a below-market extension, and were never going to get Ryan to sign a long term deal without going to free agency. And with their current self-imposed payroll limitations they won't be competitive when he hits free agency. Sadly, this means he's probably getting dealt at the deadline this year or in the next offseason, which sucks, and makes me hate baseball just a little.

[twinfan]

Hopefully they will agree before arbitration. However, the Twins are mainly a cheaply run organization which could run a player like Ryan out of town. We seem to have a good core of starters right now and need bullpen help. I hope that even going to arbitration doesn't kill the relationship.

[bean5302]

Falvey's history is filled with the beat down of young players, and ruining relationships with his future stars. I mean, it's kind of a pattern. I'm not sure what he actually does well as the head of baseball operations.

[Woof Bronzer]

Nothing says "relentless pursuit of a championship" like nickel and diming one of your better players who is already unhappy.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think far too much is being made about Joe Ryan’s supposed disgruntlement with the MN Twins.  Probably the most controversial thing he has said was about being surprised and finding difficulty with motivation after the trade deadline.  That makes him. . . human.  I’m sure it was very tough seeing his friends and colleagues dealt away and having to continue to pitch for an obviously depleted team.  The fact that he came around to the party line about “positioning for the future” speaks volumes to his ongoing commitment.  He’s also no fool.  The better he pitches, the better his payday will be in the future.  Joe Ryan will be fine. If only the rest of the team were as big of a problem as he is. 

He’s going to arbitration as a rising pitching talent in the league.  This is not an uncommon development in MLB. That’s why arbitration exists.   Jose Berrios did the same thing (and lost).  He would like more money and while I think he likely deserves it based on his production, the team would like to not pay him more money.  At the end of the day, baseball is still a business and he is an employee trying to get the best payday he can.  I wish my job worked that way.  I think I could have made a little more money. 

[Nashvilletwin]

If there were any hope of signing him to an extension - and I mean any sliver of hope - the Twins would not be arguing over $500k with their #1 starter. That’s just not how you build good will with the all-star you theoretically want to lead the team when the next window opens.

Think about how Ryan must feel.  The orginazation frets over a well deserved $500k for arguably their most important player while paying Josh Bell $7MM. Seriously? Ryan can’t wait to get out of Dodge.  And you can’t blame him.

So much for Tough Talking Tom.  What a bag of wind. The first thing he should’ve done after taking over from the Nephew was to make nice with Ryan.  Want to show the fans what a great new sheriff you are? Then sign Ryan to an extension, even if it costs a bit more.  The fact that they are now haggling over $500k just show how irreparable the relationship with Ryan has become.

It’s just a matter of time before he is dealt. Be patient. It will happen. 

[old nurse]

Crying about Nick Gordon not making a million.  That works to destroy credibility of the blogger. 

[Trov]

I can see why the Twins will fight over such a small amount.  If they cave and give into player request every time then they lose their leverage in trying to get a good contract in their opinion.  However, I fully agree fighting over this small amount for a guy that has greatly out earned his contracts over the years sours that relationship. To me, this increase the expectation he will get traded this year as no way will he sign long term with Twins after this. 

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

If there were any hope of signing him to an extension - and I mean any sliver of hope - the Twins would not be arguing over $500k with their #1 starter. That’s just not how you build good will with the all-star you theoretically want to lead the team when the next window opens.

Think about how Ryan must feel.  The orginazation frets over a well deserved $500k for arguably their most important player while paying Josh Bell $7MM. Seriously? Ryan can’t wait to get out of Dodge.  And you can’t blame him.

So much for Tough Talking Tom.  What a bag of wind. The first thing he should’ve done after taking over from the Nephew was to make nice with Ryan.  Want to show the fans what a great new sheriff you are? Then sign Ryan to an extension, even if it costs a bit more.  The fact that they are now haggling over $500k just show how irreparable the relationship with Ryan has become.

It’s just a matter of time before he is dealt. Be patient. It will happen. 

The exact ammounts they were haggling over is unknown. The amount they were asking for in negotiations could be far different. The arbitration number represents what the agent thinks they can get out of someone else making the decision. There is a difference

 

[Woof Bronzer]

5 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

If there were any hope of signing him to an extension - and I mean any sliver of hope - the Twins would not be arguing over $500k with their #1 starter. That’s just not how you build good will with the all-star you theoretically want to lead the team when the next window opens.

Think about how Ryan must feel.  The orginazation frets over a well deserved $500k for arguably their most important player while paying Josh Bell $7MM. Seriously? Ryan can’t wait to get out of Dodge.  And you can’t blame him.

So much for Tough Talking Tom.  What a bag of wind. The first thing he should’ve done after taking over from the Nephew was to make nice with Ryan.  Want to show the fans what a great new sheriff you are? Then sign Ryan to an extension, even if it costs a bit more.  The fact that they are now haggling over $500k just show how irreparable the relationship with Ryan has become.

It’s just a matter of time before he is dealt. Be patient. It will happen. 

Tough Talkin' Tom had the one tough press conference and has since disappeared.  Maybe he held himself accountable to his own words and decided not to go big after all and simply go home instead.  That's what I call relentless!

 

[jmlease1]

38 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Falvey's history is filled with the beat down of young players, and ruining relationships with his future stars. I mean, it's kind of a pattern. I'm not sure what he actually does well as the head of baseball operations.

This is simply made up. No real evidence that Falvey consistently beats down young players or ruins relationships. The Twins operate in relationship to arbitration like the vast majority of teams in MLB and there's basically nothing in how they behave that's significantly outside the norm.

[Peter]

He’s not going anywhere!!!

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think far too much is being made about Joe Ryan’s supposed disgruntlement with the MN Twins.  

There are a lot of people projecting their feelings onto Joe Ryan.

[bean5302]

11 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

This is simply made up. No real evidence that Falvey consistently beats down young players or ruins relationships. The Twins operate in relationship to arbitration like the vast majority of teams in MLB and there's basically nothing in how they behave that's significantly outside the norm.

Berrios, Buxton, and Lewis have all been vocally unhappy with the front office. Buxton even filed a grievance against the Twins in 2018, before he was angry again with them in 2021 before the trade deadline.

Falvey's front office has been linked to the "championship belt" awarded to the front office which is most successful at surpressing player salaries in arbitration.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/mlb-awards-championship-belt-during-arbitration-symposium.html

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/888513/2019/03/29/ready-to-strike-tomorrow-how-one-20-trinket-captures-the-strife-within-a-10-billion-industry/

Time and time again we see arbitration avoided with salary values well under projected for this club. I don't think that just happens out of the blue. There are business reasons to do it, but a one size fits all approach isn't appropriate in my mind anyway.

[NJM]

I'm likely in the minority but I think he should be traded at his highest price, we could get a haul for him and it would open another rotation spot for the younger guys. 

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are a lot of people projecting their feelings onto Joe Ryan.

Yeah, this isn't a unique situation to Ryan and the Twins, this happens all across the league.

It may be petty and unreasonable and mostly used as a tool to dampen the possible real paydays that will come in the following years, but Ryan and his agent know this is how the game is played by the bean counters who are trying to give the bean collectors as many beans as humanly possible.

[South Dakota Tom]

I sense, too, that the Twins believe that suppressing Ryan's 2026 salary (and, thereby, the incremental increase in his 2027 last-trip-through-arbitration salary) increases his trade value.  If there's no extension, I don't foresee a settlement, sadly.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

58 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are a lot of people projecting their feelings onto Joe Ryan.

ABSOLUTELY!

[D.C Twins]

Good Lord... Pay the man the exta 500,000... He has and will certainly earn it. 

Pohlad's doing Pohlad things... 

[Woof Bronzer]

52 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are a lot of people projecting their feelings onto Joe Ryan.

He is supposed to be happy with how the season ended?  

If you were a professional ballplayer who desperately wanted to win, would you be happy with the direction of the Twins?

 

[Mahoning]

When Tom Pohlad took over he commented that when the Twins "rightsized" the payroll to the tune of $30 million, it seemed like a good decision at the time, but they had failed to consider both the short-term and long-term consequences. Are they at it again?

[GNess]

Labor v Management is a part of almost all employment situations. However, the Twins going to the mat to save relatively little with one of their best players speaks volumes as to why they have been mostly stuck in self-imposed mediocrity for many seasons.

 

[Rosterman]

I fear the relationship has been burned. Unless the Twins would be offering a five-year contract (or maybe six buying out arbitration) starting at around $120m, he will be gone. Right now, both Ryan and the Twins are hoping he is injury free, which would hurt his value if injured for the Twins trading him, or at least delay a big payday. 

That's a gamble for someone who has really good worth in regards to return right now. He will still have that worth, as long as healthy, in spring training. And would also be a dynamite tradechip by the deadline.

But I don't see solid love. Brings back memories of Frankie Viola who was glad to get out-of-town. By Santana, who just wanted to be paid a fair price. Looking at Jose Berrios, who was low-balled. By Sonny Gray, who just wanted to finish an inning and have some run support.

Right now, the Twins have 14 rotation arms on their 40-man roster. At least two could be swiftly transferred to the bullpen. There are another 3-4 set for 40-man consideration come 2027.

 

[HerbieFan]

This confirms it....the Pohlads and their mouthpiece Falvey are not on tone deaf toward Twins fans but also the players.  It's 500K for crying out loud.  Give him the money.

[Omardog]

WHY IS THIS DIFFICULT?  Give Joe his money, convince him the team has turned a corner and is now serious about winning, negotiate a proper extension and get busy with the roster!   What's so hard about that agenda?

[ziggy]

I'm not a math guy (I was told there wouldn't be any math) but $500,000 is a lot of money, roughly 8% of the deal.  It's easy to spend someone elses money.

The Pohlads are not billionairs because they tossed away 8% of anything in any deal, quite the opposite.

Go big or go home Tom is following the family motto by saying one thing and doing another. Almost like he is a politician or salesman. 

It's been 35 years since they won a championship, I don't expect another one in the next 35 with their business model. 

Attitude is everything, and theirs is on full display.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, Omardog said:

WHY IS THIS DIFFICULT?  Give Joe his money, convince him the team has turned a corner and is now serious about winning, negotiate a proper extension and get busy with the roster!   What's so hard about that agenda?

If they give Joe his money, then they're out of money and the rest of the roster has to be rookies and waiver wire crap.

[TJSweens]

The Pohlad's are surpassing themselves as cheapskates on this one. $6.35M for an all star starting pitcher is an extreme bargain and the Twins are haggling over $500K. At the same time, they are minimizing his trade value. They should have worked out a multi-year deal by now. 

[Linus]

I love Joe Ryan but the Twins need to trade him now. Call up San Fran and get Eldridge and a couple prospects. Start making meaningful moves that add good players to our lineup. In no way would I give Joe $130 or whatever he is going to get for his age 30-35 seasons.