Why the Twins Are Looking to Trade for Help, Not the Future

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The dust is finally settling after MLB’s Winter Meetings in Orlando, and the Twins seem to have a more defined path forward. For weeks, the offseason was clouded by rumors surrounding Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Byron Buxton. That chatter quieted dramatically once Minnesota’s leadership met with the media. Instead of shopping their cornerstone pieces, the front office emphasized stability and a plan to keep the roster intact while searching for incremental upgrades.

If Minnesota does plan to make a notable move, it likely will not come from a traditional sell-off. There were not many teams signaling that they were ready to move established players for futures. As president of baseball and business operations, Derek Falvey explained, this time of year is geared toward more balanced swaps between competitive clubs.

“If two teams are both trying to compete and both have needs, and different ways, how can you swap them? It led to us in our Pablo acquisition a few years ago,” Falvey said. “They wanted Luis Arraez, and we wanted Pablo López, and that was ultimately a fit for us and a fit for them at the same time. It does not always happen like that, but we certainly are looking for that this time of year. We will see if we can execute.”

This concept is not new for the Twins. The front office has repeatedly leaned on MLB-for-MLB trades in the winter because the marketplace is fundamentally different from the one in July. In the offseason, most organizations still believe they can compete, which limits the number of clear sellers. A deal becomes more about matching needs rather than collecting prospects.

Falvey reinforced that point when he noted, “But it is not with a goal of trying to figure out how to push those guys out into the future in terms of players coming back.” The Twins want major league contributors, and they hope to exchange from areas of depth to address areas of need.

Minnesota’s recent history supports this approach. The Arraez-for-López trade stands as the most successful example, giving the Twins a frontline starter who immediately helped anchor a playoff rotation. Two winters ago, the Jorge Polanco deal fit a similar mold. While the Mariners sent notable top prospect Gabriel Gonzalez, the swap also included MLB players Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa. The Twins targeted players who could help right away and found a club that valued Polanco in a win-now environment.

This winter offers similar possibilities. Baltimore might be an interesting match after bringing in Pete Alonso to play first base. That decision could open the door for Ryan Mountcastle or highly touted corner infielder Coby Mayo. Mountcastle has one year remaining of team control but is coming off a career-worst season with an 83 OPS+ in 89 games. Mayo has a career 79 OPS+ in 102 big-league games and could be a good change-of-scenery candidate.

In the outfield, the Twins could look toward the Angels, who have already traded one outfielder this winter. Last season, Jo Adell broke out with 37 home runs, 98 runs batted in, and a .778 OPS in 2025. He remains under control for two more seasons and would give Minnesota the right-handed power presence it currently lacks. Philadelphia’s Nick Castellanos fits the same profile, though his remaining salary ($20 million) would require the Phillies to pay down a portion of the contract to make a deal work. He hit 17 homers last season, but was worth an 88 OPS+ and a -0.8 rWAR.

Some ideas are bolder. Twins Daily’s Nate Palmer explored a scenario that would send Royce Lewis to Washington for shortstop C.J. Abrams. It is the type of headline-generating move that always sparks debate, yet it also reflects how the MLB-for-MLB framework can create opportunities when teams are searching for the right blend of skill and long-term control.

Nothing is guaranteed as the Twins continue through the offseason, but their direction is now clearer than it was a week ago. They want to keep their core intact and make upgrades without sacrificing their ability to compete in 2026. If the next splash comes, it will likely come from a team looking for the same thing.

Should the Twins target any of the players mentioned above? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

View full article

[mikelink45]

It is really hard to judge the trades at this point.  Yes, we got good value from Lopez, but with his injuries would we have been better off with Arraez getting on base? 

Prospects are no value until they rise to the majors and succeed.  I think Harrison Bader was a terrific player and should do well as a FA.

Duran is now considered the top RP in the NL.  How do you replace him?  

Outman was not just bad for us, he was bad the previous year and looks like a one-hit wonder.

Out BP looks terrible - would Varland be better than Roden who has not blossomed and plays OF where we have Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzales ready to move up.

In modern Baseball the BP is at least as valuable as the rotation and we demolished ours. I need to see some strategy in our trades and so far, it is not visible to me. 

[thelanges5]

2 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It is really hard to judge the trades at this point.  Yes, we got good value from Lopez, but with his injuries would we have been better off with Arraez getting on base? 

Prospects are no value until they rise to the majors and succeed.  I think Harrison Bader was a terrific player and should do well as a FA.

Duran is now considered the top RP in the NL.  How do you replace him?  

Outman was not just bad for us, he was bad the previous year and looks like a one-hit wonder.

Out BP looks terrible - would Varland be better than Roden who has not blossomed and plays OF where we have Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzales ready to move up.

In modern Baseball the BP is at least as valuable as the rotation and we demolished ours. I need to see some strategy in our trades and so far, it is not visible to me. 

Having no plans or at least not communicating any plans leads to rampant  speculation. I agree that it would be comforting for the leadership to show us some strategy. Having some financial flexibility only sounds good because of how far down the payroll has fallen. Dodgers paid $168 million in luxury tax. That will likely be $50 million more than the twins entire payroll.

[mluebker]

Their plan is to try to be just competitive enough to make a profit, with little or no reference to silly things like playoffs. 

[old nurse]

The Polanco trade. The centerpiece or reason for the trade always depends on the point the author wishes to make.  

[old nurse]

58 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Their plan is to try to be just competitive enough to make a profit, with little or no reference to silly things like playoffs. 

If they were doing just to make a profit, the roster would be all pre arb through.  Arb 1-2 players. There would be no need for half the coaches they hire nor 3/4 of the front office. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

It is really hard to judge the trades at this point.  Yes, we got good value from Lopez, but with his injuries would we have been better off with Arraez getting on base? 

Prospects are no value until they rise to the majors and succeed.  I think Harrison Bader was a terrific player and should do well as a FA.

Duran is now considered the top RP in the NL.  How do you replace him?  

Outman was not just bad for us, he was bad the previous year and looks like a one-hit wonder.

Out BP looks terrible - would Varland be better than Roden who has not blossomed and plays OF where we have Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzales ready to move up.

In modern Baseball the BP is at least as valuable as the rotation and we demolished ours. I need to see some strategy in our trades and so far, it is not visible to me. 

Fried,, Snell, and Burnes contracts last year compared to Scott, Trienen and Estevez’s contrives. Yup relief pitching is as important as starting when you look at the dollars spent.  Fried’s contract alone might be more than what was spent on all of the relievers signed last year.

A reliever with a five year history of being injured every year manages to stay healthy for 4 months with limited use was only going to bring back an extremely low chance lottery ticket. People can quit whining about the return for Stewart

[LastOnePicked]

Great thinking. This kind of innovative approach landed us MLB-ready talent like James Outman, Taj Bradley and Alan Roden. It moves the needle now, turning a 70-win 2025 team into a 70-win 2026 team. 

When Buxton and Lopez are rehabbing from IL stints during the Trade Deadline and Joe Ryan's anger is inflating his HR allowed ratio, we'll all be able to look back to this fateful decision during the Winter Meetings and compliment this FO on another excellent offseason, setting the table for sustained future success.

[rdehring]

Every day there are numerous articles about who the Twins should/could trade for player X.  I found today's piece by Cody interesting and expect that's what the Twins will be working on the next month or so.  But I look forward to the day when I come to TD and actually see that the Twins did something. 

Kind of like going out in the below zero cold to get today's paper and seeing that the Wild traded three very good young players plus a first round pick for one great defenseman.  Not sure how that's gonna work out. 

Will tomorrow be the day I see something like that from the Twins when I come to TD in the morning?

[terrydactyls]

7 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Will tomorrow be the day I see something like that from the Twins when I come to TD in the morning?

I doubt it.

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Every day there are numerous articles about who the Twins should/could trade for player X.  I found today's piece by Cody interesting and expect that's what the Twins will be working on the next month or so.  But I look forward to the day when I come to TD and actually see that the Twins did something. 

Kind of like going out in the below zero cold to get today's paper and seeing that the Wild traded three very good young players plus a first round pick for one great defenseman.  Not sure how that's gonna work out. 

Will tomorrow be the day I see something like that from the Twins when I come to TD in the morning?

The Twins will need to make some deals just to balance the roster better. They probably have to move an outfielder. Which one? That's a good question and probably dependent upon which team is interested in who and what they are willing to give up in return.  

I'm afraid that trades like this won't be enough but... the future is TBD.   

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

It is really hard to judge the trades at this point.  Yes, we got good value from Lopez, but with his injuries would we have been better off with Arraez getting on base? 

Prospects are no value until they rise to the majors and succeed.  I think Harrison Bader was a terrific player and should do well as a FA.

Duran is now considered the top RP in the NL.  How do you replace him?  

Outman was not just bad for us, he was bad the previous year and looks like a one-hit wonder.

Out BP looks terrible - would Varland be better than Roden who has not blossomed and plays OF where we have Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzales ready to move up.

In modern Baseball the BP is at least as valuable as the rotation and we demolished ours. I need to see some strategy in our trades and so far, it is not visible to me. 

I get that prospects are suspects until they actually do something, but you simply can't say they have no value. Even if they're no contributing to the MLB club yet they at a minimum have trade value.

I highly doubt we would have been better off with Arraez than Lopez; Arraez simply hasn't been very good the past 2 seasons and hasn't gotten on base at high levels (certainly not high enough to make up for his lack of pop) since 2023. 

Varland absolutely would be better than Roden, but he was traded (with France) for Rojas and Roden, and Roden was not the centerpiece of the deal. He just wasn't.

Yes, the bullpen is very important in modern baseball, but it's also been shown to be the area that's the easiest to build cheaply. The Twins have done it before, the Rays do it all the time. I don't think the strategy is that hard to see: they traded relievers for starters, under the belief that starters are harder to find and more impactful, trusting in their ability to find the next Brock Stewart off the scrap heap, create the next Varland by converting a struggling starter, etc. Clearly it was both a value play in a lost season, but also a budget move: with the Cheap Pohlads resetting payroll down in the $110-115M zone, they're not going to pay a reliever $10M.

We'll see if it works; they need guys who struggled last season to really step up to have a chance.

[LambchoP]

What would it take to get Coby Mayo? He's young with years of control. Would it be too big of a gamble though? The kids hit well and hit for power in every stop of the minor leagues but hasn't shown anything in the majors. We don't need another Gasper.....

[rv78]

Indication from Falvey, if you read into what he is saying, is that the Twins will only get back someone of equal value in trade. makes sense, but what it also says is that Falvey is admitting he cannot get the better of a deal. That he can only pull off a trade if he gives up what the other team wants to get what he wants. Trading from a position of strength, or in the Twins case, means depth. The only strength they have is Buxton, Ryan and Lopez and they are supposedly off the table. The only position of strength/depth they have is in the outfield. Outside of Buck, and probably Jenkins, their outfield strength is mediocre. So that tells you what they will get in return. More mediocrity.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Every day there are numerous articles about who the Twins should/could trade for player X.  I found today's piece by Cody interesting and expect that's what the Twins will be working on the next month or so.  But I look forward to the day when I come to TD and actually see that the Twins did something. 

Kind of like going out in the below zero cold to get today's paper and seeing that the Wild traded three very good young players plus a first round pick for one great defenseman.  Not sure how that's gonna work out. 

Will tomorrow be the day I see something like that from the Twins when I come to TD in the morning?

The guys in charge need to be willing to make a mistake. Nobody can know the outcome of trades for years unless something really drastic or stupid happens. The Wild brought in one of the top ten players in the NHL. That trade is brilliant and it could blow up on the Wild. There isn't any position player close to available like that no matter what in MLB. However there are options. I have put this elsewhere - trade Joe Ryan ++ (Kendry Rojas, Alan Roden) to WS A's for Leodalis De Vries. That would be a definite gamble and we have no idea if the Athletics would listen. Another idea with less impact would be to trade Ober for Mayo. I'm still very hopeful of the Twins making an attempt to severely overpay for Jared Jones from Pittsburgh. The point is that there are options. My hopes have been scaled way back from November. I'm still hopeful of 2-3 trades and the signing of 2 relievers. However, I really doubt the Twins consider signing any relief pitcher of note.

[CRF]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

Great thinking. This kind of innovative approach landed us MLB-ready talent like James Outman, Taj Bradley and Alan Roden. It moves the needle now, turning a 70-win 2025 team into a 70-win 2026 team. 

When Buxton and Lopez are rehabbing from IL stints during the Trade Deadline and Joe Ryan's anger is inflating his HR allowed ratio, we'll all be able to look back to this fateful decision during the Winter Meetings and compliment this FO on another excellent offseason, setting the table for sustained future success.

THIS...is genius!

[LastOnePicked]

"the front office emphasized stability and a plan to keep the roster intact while searching for incremental upgrades."

I mean, I'm beating this to death and I'll stop soon, but just imagine writing this about a team that has made the playoffs once in five years, with absolutely dismal returns over the last two.

This is a bottom 5 organization in all of MLB. Full stop.

And yet somehow, "stability" and "incremental upgrades" are seen as good things?! This insanity has got to stop sometime, doesn't it? I thought this organization had finally realized where things stood at last year's trade deadline, but I guess not.

It's sad, because all of this delusional thinking is going to push actual winning baseball, actual contention further and further down the road.

[Nashvilletwin]

11 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

"the front office emphasized stability and a plan to keep the roster intact while searching for incremental upgrades."

I mean, I'm beating this to death and I'll stop soon, but just imagine writing this about a team that has made the playoffs once in five years, with absolutely dismal returns over the last two.

This is a bottom 5 organization in all of MLB. Full stop.

And yet somehow, "stability" and "incremental upgrades" are seen as good things?! This insanity has got to stop sometime, doesn't it? I thought this organization had finally realized where things stood at last year's trade deadline, but I guess not.

It's sad, because all of this delusional thinking is going to push actual winning baseball, actual contention further and further down the road.

Agree. I just can’t believe the Nephew is so stupid as to subscribe to this strategy.  

[HerbieFan]

Sad but true.  I've reached a point where I don't buy into a single thing Falvey says.  He talks to media like he thinks the fans are stupid.  I suspect he's acting on the wishes of ownership, but the statement about not trading any of Buxton, Ryan, Pablo and then about "adding" wreaks of someone who thinks such statements will sell tickets.  Bottom line is this....even with these "adds" he talks about we're still talking about a payroll roughly $30-35 million LESS than two years ago.  That's not "adding".

[Eris]

The challenge the Twins have is they have multiple positions that need to be improved from the 2025 season. These are 1B, 3B, LF, RF, and backup catcher. One trade doesn’t solve this problem. Martin deserves a shot in left based on his end of the season performance. Although much has been made of the mid-season sell-off, the Twins have not addressed the underperformance at most of their positions.  They have to many position players who can’t play defense or don’t hit or both. Wallner or Larnach to 1B makes more sense than a Mountcastle trade. 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

"the front office emphasized stability and a plan to keep the roster intact while searching for incremental upgrades."

I mean, I'm beating this to death and I'll stop soon, but just imagine writing this about a team that has made the playoffs once in five years, with absolutely dismal returns over the last two.

This is a bottom 5 organization in all of MLB. Full stop.

And yet somehow, "stability" and "incremental upgrades" are seen as good things?! This insanity has got to stop sometime, doesn't it? I thought this organization had finally realized where things stood at last year's trade deadline, but I guess not.

It's sad, because all of this delusional thinking is going to push actual winning baseball, actual contention further and further down the road.

Here's the equation that needs to be solved if the Twins are to compete. 

57 win roster (2025) + ???? = 82-87 win competitor (2026)

All I've heard so far for filling in the ???? is:  bullpen (without mentioning how to build a bullpen from scratch with little payroll); Lopez will be healthier (1-2 additional wins); and, my favorite, "I don't think it's a 57 win roster" (choosing to ignore facts you don't like will get you more wins somehow?).

I also keep banging this drum, but the peak year for this roster was 2023 and 87 wins.  To get to 87 that year, take this current roster, add an ace starter, an HOF shortstop, two all star relievers and a decent pen, and an extra $40 mil in payroll for complimentary pieces.  

Delusional.  

[Blyleven2011]

23 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Here's the equation that needs to be solved if the Twins are to compete. 

57 win roster (2025) + ???? = 82-87 win competitor (2026)

All I've heard so far for filling in the ???? is:  bullpen (without mentioning how to build a bullpen from scratch with little payroll); Lopez will be healthier (1-2 additional wins); and, my favorite, "I don't think it's a 57 win roster" (choosing to ignore facts you don't like will get you more wins somehow?).

I also keep banging this drum, but the peak year for this roster was 2023 and 87 wins.  To get to 87 that year, take this current roster, add an ace starter, an HOF shortstop, two all star relievers and a decent pen, and an extra $40 mil in payroll for complimentary pieces.  

Delusional.  

Keep banging the drum , it makes some of  us feel better,  but some it makes them more miserable ....

[mnfireman]

54 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I also keep banging this drum, but the peak year for this roster was 2023 and 87 wins.  To get to 87 that year, take this current roster, add an ace starter, an HOF shortstop, two all star relievers and a decent pen, and an extra $40 mil in payroll for complimentary pieces.  

'23 might be the high-water mark for this roster group, but your HOF SS had the worst season, by bWAR, of his career. What they got was career years from Jeffers, Castro, Julien, Lewis, Farmer, Wallner, and Solano; a big bounce back year from Kepler, and solid, steady play from MAT in CF. Polanco, despite injuries, was on pace for the third-best bWAR season of his career. They also had very solid SP, with five guys making at least 20 starts (of those, only Ryan had an ERA+ that was less than league average (97)), and had the second most bWAR in MLB (Ober had the highest bWAR in his career, Gray and Lopez each had the second best bWAR of their careers). They also had an above average BP (Duran, Pagan, and Stewart were very good), with the seventh best bWAR in MLB that season. 

They need a lot of things to go their way to have a successful '26 season by W-L record, but player development could be big the season.

[Otaknam]

Ober or SWR for Coby Mayo is an intriguing trade. Ober has been an effective number 3/4 starter when healthy. SWR is a number 5 starter who does fine in that role, giving 5 innings and at times 6 innings. The Twins do have unproven starter depth that needs to be tested so they better know what they have. Mayo would be the first baseman and provide a right handed power bat they need. And Mayo is redundant after the Orioles signed Alonso. So trading from a position of depth, though somewhat unproven, and taking a swing at Mayo makes sense to me. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

Ober or SWR for Coby Mayo is an intriguing trade. Ober has been an effective number 3/4 starter when healthy. SWR is a number 5 starter who does fine in that role, giving 5 innings and at times 6 innings. The Twins do have unproven starter depth that needs to be tested so they better know what they have. Mayo would be the first baseman and provide a right handed power bat they need. And Mayo is redundant after the Orioles signed Alonso. So trading from a position of depth, though somewhat unproven, and taking a swing at Mayo makes sense to me. 

Do you like Mayo or Mountcastle better? Mayo has the high upside allure but a bad MLB track record. Mountcastle has faded the last 2 years, bit has shown he can hit MLB pitching. Tough choice

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, rv78 said:

Indication from Falvey, if you read into what he is saying, is that the Twins will only get back someone of equal value in trade. makes sense, but what it also says is that Falvey is admitting he cannot get the better of a deal. That he can only pull off a trade if he gives up what the other team wants to get what he wants. Trading from a position of strength, or in the Twins case, means depth. The only strength they have is Buxton, Ryan and Lopez and they are supposedly off the table. The only position of strength/depth they have is in the outfield. Outside of Buck, and probably Jenkins, their outfield strength is mediocre. So that tells you what they will get in return. More mediocrity.

A team seeking to sell or buy generally does worse in a trade. Patience is a virtue. Not many here seem to have it

[Mahoning]

For this team to be any good the stars have to align perfectly (which seems to be the front office's "plan" every year.) Buxton has to repeat; Royce Lewis has to become a genuine star; Lopez and Ryan have to win 15 each; Alan Roden has to be the .300 hitter he was in the minor leagues; Keaschall has to avoid a sophomore slump; Wallner has to hit 30 homers; at least two more stout relievers have to be found; they have to steal bases like crazy.. It COULD happen . . . 

[old nurse]

15 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Do you like Mayo or Mountcastle better? Mayo has the high upside allure but a bad MLB track record. Mountcastle has faded the last 2 years, bit has shown he can hit MLB pitching. Tough choice

Alan Roden has better AAA numbers than Mayo. He struggled in Toronto in a brief stay there, struggled here before injury. Mayo struggled in a brief stay in Boston.  If they traded for him and he struggled here there might be an explosion. The only reason to trade for either of them is to give up only a high high risk, high reward prospect from the lower levels 

[old nurse]

1 minute ago, Mahoning said:

For this team to be any good the stars have to align perfectly (which seems to be the front office's "plan" every year.) Buxton has to repeat; Royce Lewis has to become a genuine star; Lopez and Ryan have to win 15 each; Alan Roden has to be the .300 hitter he was in the minor leagues; Keaschall has to avoid a sophomore slump; Wallner has to hit 30 homers; at least two more stout relievers have to be found; they have to steal bases like crazy.. It COULD happen . . . 

The stars aligning is how any mid market teams wins.   That is pretty much true for some of the large market teams.  The stars aligned twice for Houston to get Verlander for nothing 

[mluebker]

On 12/13/2025 at 8:12 AM, old nurse said:

If they were doing just to make a profit, the roster would be all pre arb through.

They can't tear the roster all the way down to the ground without losing even the fans who make excuses for them. If you have a better take on the great job the Twins are doing, I'd love to hear it.