If Twins Must Play 2026 on a Miserly Budget, They Should Blow Up the Roster and Build a Super-Farm

[Seansy]

I don't disagree with your premise but having a few counterfactuals against the rebuild argument would strengthen your case.

Plenty more rebuilds fail than succeed (ownership spending is part of the issue).

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not sure what a super farm looks like, 

You know who does know, though?  The Mariners and the Dodgers.  No team has more top-100 prospects than them.

The Dodgers know better than anyone that the old adage "money isn't everything" remains true today.  That's because they have both.  They have money.  And they have everything.

[Chembry]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Sorry, I was too abrupt. Jett is the player all Mets fans and East Coast writers are hoping meets the Twins wishes. He can run and hit at AA. My argument against him is he strikes out a ton, has an average arm, and is not above average defensively. Both Benge and Williams had a little struggle in AAA, but I prefer Benge. I prefer Tong to either of those guys. Prefer Clark over any Mets.

I agree that getting the talent will be very difficult. However, there are guys getting big bucks to do their jobs and I just want them to get it right.

When i looked back, I sounded crappy. Sorry. I'm a little worried the Twins trade for good  instead of great. Will try to be polite.

I think you are a bit misled on Jett Williams.  He has a career 22% K rate in minors, 23% at AAA.  While that's not great, it's not terrible would would be just above average in MLB.  I did read today that Jett Williams had two throws over 95 mph last year. That was more the the Mets team all of 2025.  His arm was only graded at a 50 on MLB pipeline, but 60 on BA.  He also has elite speed at >30ft/sec. 

https://www.mlb.com/mets/news/how-jett-williams-factors-into-mets-plans?t=mets-pipeline-coverage

I would prefer Benge as well, but I wouldn't be upset if he was part of the return for Ryan.  Especially with his positional flexibility.  

[bean5302]

Almost every team to make it to the World Series has undergone a significant rebuild/reconstruction in the past decade. You either do that or you have an exceptionally high budget or both.

The problem is I don't really think "Falvey" burning it down helps. The Twins have deserved only 1 playoff appearance in Falvey's entire tenure, and that's 2019. Otherwise, the team has been gifted playoff spots in what was the worst division in baseball. Since 2017 (changing now with the expanded playoffs) an 87 win team has less than a 10% shot at the playoffs. The Twins have only 1 season under Falvey with more than 87 wins. The teams he's built just aren't very good. They're "competitive" but not strong.

He and his front office have not good enough to recognize and develop talent. Topping it off, Falvey's fresh out of Bill Smith and Terry Ryan drafted talent to trade away or prop up his poorly built rosters so there might not be a lot of rebuild quality on the horizon.

I expect a Falvey rebuild looks an awful lot like a White Sox rebuild. We're hosed so long as Falvey remains in his position.

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Sorry, I was too abrupt. Jett is the player all Mets fans and East Coast writers are hoping meets the Twins wishes. He can run and hit at AA. My argument against him is he strikes out a ton, has an average arm, and is not above average defensively. Both Benge and Williams had a little struggle in AAA, but I prefer Benge. I prefer Tong to either of those guys. Prefer Clark over any Mets.

I agree that getting the talent will be very difficult. However, there are guys getting big bucks to do their jobs and I just want them to get it right.

When i looked back, I sounded crappy. Sorry. I'm a little worried the Twins trade for good  instead of great. Will try to be polite.

No way we trade for Jett in any event before we find out when we draft.  If we get the #1,  we will draft Chowolsky who is a true #1 SS prospect - way better than Jett and probably arrive just as fast. 

[nicksaviking]

57 minutes ago, ashbury said:

You know who does know, though?  The Mariners and the Dodgers.  No team has more top-100 prospects than them.

The Dodgers know better than anyone that the old adage "money isn't everything" remains true today.  That's because they have both.  They have money.  And they have everything.

And even if that money didn't buy the prospects, it did buy the best PoBO and supporting front office personnel and likely the best scouts, MiLB instructors and facilities in the league.

And of course it paid for the best PR team to hype those players onto such lists, if one were to believe in such conspiracies.......

[Vanimal46]

6 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Right now I put TC at 70 wins tops.

Dreamer

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Doc Lenz said:

Culpepper may be a rule 5 casualty. Keep Terrible Gasper on 40 man don’t protect Culpepper. Smart

It's insane if true

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

You know who does know, though?  The Mariners and the Dodgers.  No team has more top-100 prospects than them.

The Dodgers know better than anyone that the old adage "money isn't everything" remains true today.  That's because they have both.  They have money.  And they have everything.

LAD's money can and does help them recover very quickly from a bad trade/draft.

[Chembry]

10 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

It's insane if true

CJ Culpepper is Rule 5 eligible, not Kaelen Culpepper.  Kaelen Culpepper isn’t rule 5 eligible yet.  He was just drafted in 2024.

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, Doc Lenz said:

What is Ryan’s worth? Late August or September Ryan that was terrible? How about López? How healthy is he really? Think people are over estimating what other teams may think.

Trade them all tear it down, tear down the stadium and move the franchise out. 

I don't know what other teams think. 

I also don't know if Bryce Eldridge can hit a major league sinker. 

Now what? 

 

[Doctor Wu]

14 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Can't give up on him yet but a lot of shine has come off the chrome this past year. 

Great description! 

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, LyleCole said:

AS I said a long time ago, rebuild is the way to go.  The trade value of Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan are at a maximum because they are coming off healthy seasons and their compensation levels are minimal to the teams that would be looking to acquire them.  I would add Ryan Jeffers to that group too.  

I would trade Lopez only if you get a solid offer.  Otherwise, keep Lopez and Bailey Ober and see if they can produce healthy results to start 2026.   Then move them to a contender.

The management MUST move the young prospects to the forefront.   Jenkins and Rodriguez should be in the opening day lineup.  Culpepper should be too.   I would keep Royce Lewis and hope that he can turn it around because he could still fit into any competitive timeframe.   Keep Brooks Lee as a super utility guy too.

As I have mentioned before, rebuilds take time.  Not every prospect you bring up is going to be a successful major league player no matter what their performance was in the minors.  Not every player will stay healthy.   One of the examples I use from the 1982 Twins Rebuild was the original center fielder they plugged into the lineup was Jim Eisenreich, who went from A ball to starting in centerfield for the Twins.  But Eisenreich unfortunately flamed out even, and it wasn't until 1984 that they brought Pucket up.   If they wait until 1983, or even 1984 to put Eisenreich into the lineup, it probably pushes Kirby back at least for some time.  

Get GROUP A of players up to the major leagues.  Find out who can play and who cannot.  Then bring in players to replace them from the farm.  

I agree with your overall sentiment. I'm a big fan of your posts and attitude. May you live long and prosper. 

Just want to mention that rebuilds don't have to take a long time.

Where you start matters. If the Team wants to back up another 1,000 miles to make it take longer... They can... they may not have to. They can also choose to drive 40 mph instead of 80 mph.

Thinking they wouldn't have room or if they would be unwilling to make room for a healhy Eisenrich and a young Kirby Puckett on the same 1984 roster is driving 40 mph and yes... it will lengthen the rebuild. 

It's all about identifying talent right now. If they pour enough players through... they'll find talent. Find out who's Dave Meier and who is Tim Tuefel.  

[MGX]

15 hours ago, NYCTK said:

You are right, there are few 50+ FV prospects. Only 23 by Fangraphs ratings, not even including Walker Jenkins who FG has downgraded to a 50 FV prospect. This tells you just how exclusive (and valuable) those prospects are, and Joe Ryan likely just isn't good enough to get one in return, one for one. 

Would have to be a very aggressive GM like San Diego (who don't currently have a 50+ FV) or Philadelphia. Maybe the Dodgers. But, for example, the Mets have one such prospect and I can say, definitively, that there is no chance the GM would make that trade. 

The Twins need to get a top prospect for Ryan or don't trade him, it's simple. They can't settle for what other teams are willing to trade. They have the leverage & need to use it.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

No way we trade for Jett in any event before we find out when we draft.  If we get the #1,  we will draft Chowolsky who is a true #1 SS prospect - way better than Jett and probably arrive just as fast. 

That sure could sway their plans.  However, they could put Williams at 2B, Keaschall at 1B, Chowolsky at SS, and Culpepper at 3B.  Jenkins / Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Martin / Roden in the OF and that's pretty promising.  If nothing else, that's a whole different level of athleticism.

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Sorry, I was too abrupt. Jett is the player all Mets fans and East Coast writers are hoping meets the Twins wishes. He can run and hit at AA. My argument against him is he strikes out a ton, has an average arm, and is not above average defensively. Both Benge and Williams had a little struggle in AAA, but I prefer Benge. I prefer Tong to either of those guys. Prefer Clark over any Mets.

I agree that getting the talent will be very difficult. However, there are guys getting big bucks to do their jobs and I just want them to get it right.

When i looked back, I sounded crappy. Sorry. I'm a little worried the Twins trade for good  instead of great. Will try to be polite.

It's alright. You have a lot of posts that don't post that way in the bank. 

I gave you the benefit of the doubt that you responded before you read my follow up post. 

I spend a lot of energy on this website trying to speak generally, conceptually. just to avoid the specific player subjective opinion rabbit hole. 

The problem with that. It's hard to find footing with my general thoughts without specifics so I find myself in that rabbit hole more than I care to. 

This just kind of shows what happens when specific players are brought in. 

I don't have a strong opinion of Jett Williams or Bryce Eldridge or any of them.

My strong opinion is... I want a young SS and 1B... I don't want to break camp with Kreidler or Fitzgerald on the 26 man roster. Especially on a 26 man roster that should be all about talent accumulation and major league talent identification. 

 

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

You know who does know, though?  The Mariners and the Dodgers.  No team has more top-100 prospects than them.

The Dodgers know better than anyone that the old adage "money isn't everything" remains true today.  That's because they have both.  They have money.  And they have everything.

And they still manage to find the room to find Max Muncy. 

Development + money = Bulletproof

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

No way we trade for Jett in any event before we find out when we draft.  If we get the #1,  we will draft Chowolsky who is a true #1 SS prospect - way better than Jett and probably arrive just as fast. 

If the Twins get the #1 pick. Jett Williams or Dante Culpepper 😁 should have no bearing on the selection of that pick.

You draft the best player. If it is Chowolsky... then that is who you take.

I'd strongly recommend making the draft a separate consideration and I wouldn't freeze or avoid accumulating talent today because you might accumulate talent tomorrow. 

If we end up with 4 SS's that can play... That's great news. Wonderful... Let's do it. We can pick the best ones, move some to different positions or trade them to another team that only has Brooks Lee and Ryan Fitzgerald on the 26 man roster. 

[MGX]

13 hours ago, LyleCole said:

One of the examples I use from the 1982 Twins Rebuild was the original center fielder they plugged into the lineup was Jim Eisenreich, who went from A ball to starting in centerfield for the Twins.  But Eisenreich unfortunately flamed out even, and it wasn't until 1984 that they brought Pucket up.   If they wait until 1983, or even 1984 to put Eisenreich into the lineup, it probably pushes Kirby back at least for some time.

I don't see how we can say Eisenreich was blocking Puckett. He had a health issue that took him out of baseball for a while. He debuted in '82 with a solid showing in 111 PA's, but in '83 he only had 8 PA's & '84 36 PA's. That isn't blocking anyone.

Meanwhile, Puckett was in rookie ball in '82 & A ball in '83, he skipped a level & went to AAA in '84 & debuted the same season. If anything Puckett was fast tracked to MLB.

The idea that players are blocked is exaggerated IMO. When a player is ready & plays well enough to force a promotion they'll get there chance. 

[karcherd]

The problem with a rebuild is do you trust Falvey to identify the correct players to get back in return.  Who does he have in the front office that knows how to scout and identify the players to seek and hopefully build a winner.  They have gutted the scouting staff and it is all analytics staff sitting behind a computer telling him who he should acquire.  How has that worked out so far.  We end up signing guys like France and Gallo or even Margot.

As for the coaching staff, we do have a new manager and some new coaches.  But there is also a fair amount of coaches that were brought back.  With the collapse of the last year and a half, you would have expected more turnover but Falvey thinks his process is working.  So again do you trust Falvey in a rebuild.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins must extract those top players even if they must add a player or two. 

We know the Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays are going all in as much as they are able to this offseason. I expect Detroit and Seattle to go hard to field their best team as well. There are other teams that will want to discuss with the Twins too. 

If the Twins cannot get those top guys they should hold them. Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait were ok acquisitions but the Twins need much better for any of Buxton, Lopez, or Ryan, especially Ryan. 

This.

The Twins did 'ok' at the deadline but considering the fire sale that they had, it would have been nice to land more talent than they did. I don't have confidence in this front office to trade Buxton, Lopez, and Ryan and a build a super farm system. In theory, sure. But, in practice, nothing indicates this front office can pull it off.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, karcherd said:

The problem with a rebuild is do you trust Falvey to identify the correct players to get back in return. 

Right now... I'd have to say. No I don't. 

At the same time... I'm not convinced that they actually tried. 

If they go back to strip mining prospects for parts. Wasting roster space on role players. I will cement that opinion. 

[Patzky]

13 hours ago, Doc Lenz said:

Then maybe people should use first names!

Daunte's inferno.

[Whitey333]

At this point it makes sense to tear it down all the way.  Move Ryan, Jeffers, Lopez, and Buxton while you can get something good for them.  As far as our farm system being so great so many ofbthose can't miss prospects have either missed or underperformed already.  Throwing names like Jenkins and Walker and Culpepper and others as if the are major league superstars already is ludicrous.   They haven't proven anything yet.  People ask about not developing superstars in our system.  Did I miss something?  Joe Mauer was drafted number one overall and is now in the hall of fame.  How soon we forget lol.  But I agree they don't do it too often.

[TroyVang]

As sad as I am to say it, I think you are right. When the American colonies were considering independence, John Adams wrote, "If we finally fail in this great and glorious Contest, it will be by bewildering ourselves in groping for the middle way." I see a rebuild in the same way. Trying to rebuild while holding on to two or three vets just probably won't work. It will just make them and us all sad. Tear it down and start again. Baseball is the one sport where you can truly do it.

As you may have guessed, I teach American History haha

[tony&rodney]

43 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Daunte's inferno.

I used to read that book again every 15-20 years but I'm overdue. A friend once told me I really needed to learn to read it in the original language, but it has always made me laugh out loud, every single time.

[Riverbrian]

48 minutes ago, TroyVang said:

As sad as I am to say it, I think you are right. When the American colonies were considering independence, John Adams wrote, "If we finally fail in this great and glorious Contest, it will be by bewildering ourselves in groping for the middle way." I see a rebuild in the same way. Trying to rebuild while holding on to two or three vets just probably won't work. It will just make them and us all sad. Tear it down and start again. Baseball is the one sport where you can truly do it.

As you may have guessed, I teach American History haha

I love posts with examples like that. A good analogy, parable, allegory, exemplum, metaphor, fable, simile always makes the post more interesting. 

Winston Churchill once said: The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences.

Revelations 3:16: So, because you are lukewarm and not hot or cold, I am about to spit you out of my mouth.

I agree with you but I'm also of the opinion that it's OK that Horatio Gates attacks Saratoga with Buxton playing the role of Benedict Arnold. In order to prevent him from becoming what Benedict Arnold would become in American History.   

[KikiMN]

What has the farm system produced in the last 3 years?  Improvements need to be made there if this young talent is going to succeed. 

[Otaknam]

It’s hard to argue against trading Buxton, Lopez and/or Ryan, given that the team will not be contending for anything other than young players getting experience. Byron and Lopez are the logical trades because of contracts. So it wouldn’t surprise if they are gone this off season, with Ryan gone at the trade deadline. They need at least two from Abel, Bradley and Rojas to show solid progress as ML starters to judge the 2025 roster blowup as successful IMO.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I must respectfully disagree that the team should be dismantled  and start over, even if the payroll is low. We must ask ourselves: "What is the real goal here?" If it is to lose 100 games each year, for the next 2-3 years while attendance tanks and the fan base dwindles, and apathy reigns, then cancel your season tickets, cancel spring training trip plans, cancel trips to Minneapolis. However, for most of us at Twins Daily, baseball is more than just entertainment. It is Byron Buxton rounding second base and heading to third base for a triple. It is Ryan Jeffers diving to catch a popup. It is the total Joe Ryan experience. It is a Pablo Lopez interview.  It will be LaTroy Hawkins in the bullpen, mentoring young pitchers. It is Rod Carew and Tony O and Cuddy and Torii and TK at spring training. It is not life or death. It is not always, "Wait until next year." It is now, this off season, this spring, Spring training, opening day, the smell of freshly cut grass, beating the Yankees, getting to know the players, watching the games with Dick ( retired, what a great guy) and Cory, Justin, Trevor, Denard, LaTroy, Roy (retired),Torii, Tim, Katie, Audra and Perk. Watching the Twins' players hustle, make plays and just play baseball.  We fans form bonds with these players, even though we don't really know them...we still feel like they are friends that  we enjoy spending some time with. I recognize that I am somewhat biased because I am 80 years old and my time as a Twins' fan will probably be over sooner than your time as a Twins fan. I became a Washington Senators fan over 70 years ago and moved my fanhood to Minneapolis when the Senators moved there.  I feel that in many ways I am wiser now that I ever have been and I am happier than ever. "The past is but a memory and the future is only a dream; only the present is real." As Robert Frost wrote: "Be happy, happy, happy/ And seize the day of pleasure." Now I'm going for a solo walk in the beautiful farm country and woods of North Carolina and I will be thanking God for such a wonderful day.