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  1. I think Nick has the right structure in place for what the contract looks like but it is missing 1 key piece to ensure it is enough to win the bidding. Deferrals. If Correa is dead set on beating Lindor's deal you might need to kick in an extra 2M a year in deferred money for X number of years to exceed Lindor's guarantee. Personally, my preference for big contracts would lean towards position players just because of the reduced chance of career altering injuries compared to pitchers. Nothing is guaranteed but as long as we are doing a crazy big deal investing in a great player it might as well be a great up the middle player.
  2. Ugh, this accidentally posted before I finished. How do I delete this?
  3. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Carlos Correa ($35.1M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5.0M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 9.57% under budget
  4. Agree 100% her with you Ted. With Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Ryan, and Ober, plus the depth behind them with Winder, SWR, and Varland, the Twins absolutely should not sign another back-end starter. Front end starter or bust for me right now.
  5. I like Festa as a sleeper pick. It is rare for prospects outside of the first few rounds to succeed at the MLB level (except for overslot prospects that fall due to signability concerns e.g. Julien) but he certainly put himself on the radar this year with his performance. It is worth noting that his BAA and WHIP both went up quite a bit in High A versus Low A and Low A is a pitcher friendly league so I would only list him as an honorable mention but given his stuff he has a non-zero chance at breaking out further. If you could guarantee me that Canterino is healthy for his career I would say he has the best chance of being an ace but sadly the odds are stacked against him for that right now. Prielipp is currently their most likely ace prospect right now and I wouldn't underrate his chances of hitting that ceiling given he showed his stuff recovered pretty well in his predraft workouts. I have said it before and I will repeat it that snagging both Lee and Prielipp in the same draft this year is an absolute coup for the FO and they should be commended for taking advantage of those players being available to them. Even if Prielipp never amounts to anything due to injuries it should remain undisputed that the pick was a good one given his upside at that pick.
  6. It is Rodon or bust for me to acquire that #1 starter for next year. I wouldn't shortchange how good of a year Gray had for the Twins this year either though. Mahle could also be good if healthy too. Ideally, the sign Rodon and can still extend Gray and Mahle to decent contracts for the following years.
  7. Joe Ryan has already made the Cruz deal look amazing but I agree he can unlock another level with some further development of his offspeed pitches. Given how good his FB is with the deception it has I think his floor is probably a low # 3 starter but if he unlocks more he could easily be a very good #2 pitcher.
  8. I like Narvaez the best as a LHH. Pairing Jeffers with another RHH is just setting him up for failure as either the back up or co starter.
  9. Solid list. Appreciate the write up. I assume when you refer to a role in '23 you mean they start figuring into the Twins' plans as prospects? No way they debut with the big-league club next year.
  10. No, don't trade him when his value has cratered. Give him a chance to bounce back fully next year than assess his fit on the team from there. Unless some team wants to pay for him as a top 50 global prospect I would rather wait and see how he bounces back given his strong finish to the year.
  11. Good article. Worth remembering that most prospects either never make The Show or just get a brief cup of coffee. Even top prospects frequently don't pan out.
  12. If they can sign him to a Harris II type deal? Sure. Otherwise wait until the end of next year to ensure the league doesn't adjust to him and he fails to adjust back.
  13. Excellent work! Appreciate the time put into it. After the first 2 picks this was an easy A+ draft regardless of what came next. The VT shortstop is interesting to me given he outproduced Gavin Cross when they played together. Hopefully some other guys also end up becoming contributors too.
  14. From FG: Twins got 1 of 4 55-60 prospects at 8 https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0 Connor was ranked 27th (with tremendous variance) Schobel 66. The fact that he outproduced Gavin Cross on the same team has been an interesting factoid to learn about him. 2022 MLB Draft: Day One Recap | FanGraphs Baseball
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