Seansy

Sadly, this feels nearly inevitable at this point. Pohlad's pocket the revenue sharing money while they can before a potential lockout and salary cap/floor while selling the fanbase on a rebuild of young players they get by trading Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers. If Ober and Lewis bounce back they will be traded at the deadline too. God willing we do get a cap and floor so the Pohlads will be forced to spend.

I don't disagree with your premise but having a few counterfactuals against the rebuild argument would strengthen your case. Plenty more rebuilds fail than succeed (ownership spending is part of the issue).

Isn't Adam's being used mostly in relief? I think that's part of the reason he isn't getting as much hype as other prospects.

There is no downside for the Twins to sign him to a 2 year minor league deal. At this point, it is up to Matt to decide on his destination for FA, but I hope the Twins make the offer because he would deserve it given his efforts thus far to come back from injury.

Given our OFers injury history and that Keirsey has options he will be depth at AAA in case of injury. Just needs to keep making adjustments and be ready when he gets his next chance.

I have long been of the opinion that there is no such thing as an touchable player for trades. With that said, trading Lopez now would require a massive haul to justify trading him. There are a few large market teams with enough interesting top 100 prospects to consider it, but if the reaction isn't an obvious win for the Twins than they need to pass.

The #1 reason Ober won't/shouldn't get an extension is the 1 thing not mentioned in this article: Ober is already 29 years old with 3 years of team control remaining. Any extension will be for his age 32 and up seasons. Unless the Twins get a steal of a deal that pays him way less than he is projected to make they will go year to year with him until he is traded or becomes a FA. You could make the same case to extend Joe Ryan since he is a year younger than Bailey and also has 3 years of control left but for the same reasons he is unlikely to be extended. For contrast, Pablo is only a few months older than Joe and he is also signed for exactly 3 more years.

Dumped Paddack to create payroll room to add Coulombe as a LHP and meet the budget requirement of 130M. Topa starts in AAA to 1) prove he is healthy and 2) keep Henriquez since he is out of options to maintain depth. Might be able to dump Vazquez for a different back up C but I'm not confident any FA back up C on the market will be much better. C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M) 1B: Jose Mirands ($0.80M) 2B: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M) SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.80M) 4th OF: DaShawn Keirsey ($0.80M) Utility: Willi Castro ($6.20M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M) SP4: David Festa ($0.8M) SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M) RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M) RP: Michael Tonkin ($1M) RP: Ronny Henriquez ($0.8M) RP: Danny Coulombe ($2.20M) NA: Justin Topa ($1.3M) Payroll is 2.31% under budget

While this is a fair analysis of how much value the Twins FO has gained as of TODAY for offseason trades, I think it is going to get significantly worse over the next few years. Unless injuries totally derail both Gil's and Petty's careers I would bet both of those guys add plenty of value for their current teams. I also think the combination of Cruz and Sisk together could overtake Taylor's value over 1 year but that's still TBD. When you look at the ledgers, the Twins side of value is basically already maxed out. I personally would count DeBarge on the plus side of the ledger for the Gray trade even if he wasn't actually part of the trade. Outside of that, it's only Rayne Doncon, a decent prospect, but no sure bet to make the majors. If Petty and Gil both have decently long successful careers that 13.9 overall WAR figure could easily become a negative WAR total before too long... That's the problem in trying to assess trades of prospects for established veterans. 1 side of the ledger is frequently still TBD and creates a mistaken impression of the trade until that side is resolved.

The bigger issue is the drop in payroll. That's what's caused the ratios to get out of whack. Given how talented Buxton, Correa, and Lopez are we are still paying them less than their production by a good amount. Also, Correa's salary drops by 4.5M after this year too. Trading Vasquez, Paddack, and even Castro should take priority over trading any of Buxton, Correa, or Lopez if salary relief is needed.

Would be a collosal mistake unless they get back a massive overwhelming return. Correa's contract is extremely reasonable for a mid market team. They have other contracts to dump from underperforming players before ever considering trading Correa. Would signal to any other big FA to disregard MN as they value salary relief over winning.

Sadly, I doubt the Twins make any major league FA signings at all. They're already up against their payroll cap as is and even if they trade some combination of Paddack, Vasquez, and/or Castro it is more likely they add elsewhere than the BP. If they do add to the BP it's going to be in the bargain bin for 2-3M. Anything at 5M for the year is highly unlikely.

I'm going to assume everyone arb eligible is kept aside from Tonkin. Cutting AK only saves 1M over a min salary guy and I don't think the FO and coaches want to give up on him despite the injuries. There is a chance they trade Castro to save money but he's not getting DFA'D. The other main trade candidate is Paddack. Maybe a new ownership group saves the day but assuming everyone is kept that I listed and they fill the last 3 26man spots with minimum salary guys their ~payroll is around 135M. If payroll remains frozen at 130M that means someone will be traded to make up the difference and my bet is on Paddack right now. 40 man is going to be very interesting to follow. Lots of marginal guys that could be kept or cut. Lots of guys they could potentially add.

Great story you found! Well done!

Great idea Seth! Love it! Hopefully someone from the FO is regularly reading Twins Daily so they inquire on his availability.