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Everything posted by Seansy

  1. No way Stroman takes 4/80 after what Gausman and Ray signed for. He will want a MINIMUM of 5/100 and it will likely take much more per year to sign him given his durability and longer track record of above average production than Gausman or Ray. Otherwise it is a pretty solid plan!
  2. I think our best bet is to trade for Luzardo or Hernandez from the Marlins. They have more starters than they have spots for them to pitch and the acquisition cost for either of those two players will be significantly less than it would for a 1 year rental from Oakland or a 2 year contract for a Reds starter. If we sign one of Stroman/Rodon trade for one of Luzardo or Hernandez and either sign a 3rd starter like Pineda/Duffy or trade for Odorizzi as a salary dump from Houston then we should have enough pitching to compete this year without trading any of our promising young pitchers that will start appearing at MLB level in '22 and '23.
  3. Given how expensive the prospect cost is for just 1 year I would say we should pass. Better to look for another Maeda/Odorizzi type of trade than overpay for 1 year of a good pitcher when the team might not be good enough next year.
  4. I want to see Ryan, if Dobnak can bounceback, and maybe Strotman. Done with Barnes, Gant, and Jax. Stop calling up guys like Gibaut and Vincent over Moran. Really starting to wonder what the plan is right now...
  5. Rooker in LF, Miranda at 3rd, DH JD, Sanó at 1B. Arraez rotates to give everyone a day off so he plays regularly.
  6. I would rather get Mauricio instead of Baty but they are close to equivalent. Matt Allan is one guy I would like to target BECAUSE of the injury. Value lower due to the increased risk. Can Rocker be traded once the Mets sign him?
  7. While I would agree our self scouting failures have been big missed opportunities (Anderson, Wade, etc.) I can hardly fault the team for not protecting Baddoo in the Rule 5 draft. Struggled at High A ball in 2019 and had TJ. No play time last year. Just shrug your shoulders at that one. I also hate how much people overrate things like Escobar or Pressly in those trades. Escobar was traded from a non playoff team (with 0 additional years of control!) for what is now one of our global top 100 pitching prospects. Pressly refused to make the changes the Twins asked him to do but did so once Houston traded for him. 1.5 years of him for 6-7 years of Alcala and Celestino. I've would do both of those trades again in a second and so should every other Twins fan. Any production they have AFTER they sign extensions SHOULD NOT be counted as part of their production after they are traded.
  8. I'm curious which pitchers people want the Twins to target with the money saved from trading JD? Rodon, Scherzer, Kershaw, Gausmann, Stroman, Thor, and Lynn are the first few names that come to mind to me that are free agents but I could be forgetting some.
  9. My preference would be either of packages 1 or 2 but it's possible those teams won't want to sell low on those TJ arms and we'd have to take a package like the 3rd option.
  10. Oh they would probably do that. I was just saying you aren't getting both for just Berríos.
  11. You won't get both for just Berríos. I like package #2 from the Mets best.
  12. The only way this trade comes close is if the Twins keep Sano AND take Hosmer's entire contract. Even then San Diego may still say no.
  13. I have to disagree regarding Luis Gil. Cave wass DFA'D by the Yankees and the Twins decided to jump the waiver wire by offering Gil for Cave. While that would be defensible if Cave worked out I'm worried about his drop-off the past couple years and the seriousness of his recent injury. I remember reading at fangraphs they were surprised the Twins chose to trade something to acquire him. Since it was skipped it is worth mentioning that Ynoa wasn't a great find by Atlanta but pure luck. They wanted J.T. Chargois but medical stopped it so they ended up with Ynoa as a last moment replacement. Nobody was banging the table for him for Atlanta. Still a whiff on our end.
  14. Personally I think Donaldson should be kept if the Twins plan to compete next year. I see no reason for the Twins to NOT try to compete next year so they should hang onto him. They have enough to pay Berrios and Buxton starting in 2023 with extensions if they pay them a little less in their first year of the deal to offset for Donaldson's contract or depending on how they tackle FA over the next two years. With so many young position players coming up on their cheap rookie contracts they should be able to make it work. Donaldson has the option/buyout for 2024 that will work itself out based on his play. If Miranda continues playing on fire I could see Donaldson being moved to create space for Miranda/Arraez at third base but ONLY if it is for something of value in return and NOT just a salary dump. Hard to see which teams are really interested in a deal though.
  15. Catcher Agreed. Only trade Garver for an overwhelming offer. He can mix in at DH and 1B to keep his bat in the lineup when he's not catching. First Base First one I'll disagree on. Sano has negative trade value right now. You cannot trade him for anything. You would have to include cash/prospects to move him right now. Keep him to mix in for 1B, DH, and 3B for next year. Try to fix him this year. If he cannot be fixed you buy him out after next year. Hopefully he starts hitting again for trade value next year. AK is the primary 1B but Sano needs a chance to fix himself too to rebuild trade value. Second Base Polanco has a lot of value because of his contract. He looks like he'll be a good defender there long term. Keep all 3 of him, Arraez, and Gordon. If someone wants to blow you away for Arraez or Polanco they can be traded but otherwise I'm keeping them. Shortstop Agreed. Trade Simmons if someone wants him like the Reds. Either Gordon or Polanco can play shortstop the rest of the year. Third Base Disagree again. Donald's contract has negative value in a trade so he's basically just a salary dump right now. No reason to trade him if you plan to compete next year. Still an overall good defender and good hitter. Miranda will be available to take over if/when he gets hurt next year at AAA. Arraez is another option to cover for him too if he gets hurt. Left Field Agreed. Larnach is the LF for the next 6 years. Center Field I'm trying to extend Buxton to keep him long term instead of trading him. Hard to trade right now with the injury and he's just so freaking talented you have to roll the dice on his health. 5/100M guaranteed with incentives for games/innings played that max out at making him one of the 10 highest paid players in MLB if he plays 150 games worth of innings is what I'd offer him. I'd be willing to go up to 7/150M guaranteed or 10/175M depending on what he is looking for in a contract (value decreases on the back end for guarentees and incentives). Celestino becomes the primary back up for him when he gets injured. Right Field I'm willing to move Max for a similarly good haul as Polanco for the same reason. Great value on his contract. Not just giving him away because he provides great defense and speed on the bases. If he gets moved AK becomes primary RF until Sano is traded or his contract runs out. DH Adios Cruz! It's been great having you. Rooker takes his roster spot as part of a DH rotation/tryout. Starting Pitching I'd try to move Berrios for a haul this trade deadline. His value will never be higher to trade, he's dead set on becoming a FA, the SP market for trades is very thin this year. Now is the time to pounce. Pineda also gets moved for the same reason although his return will be much smaller. I'm probably keeping Maeda unless I get blown away by an offer. His value likely isn't the best right now since he was pitching so poorly to start the year. Happ I'm dumping for whatever I can get to get him off the roster. Give Barnes or Winder a shot to see what they've got. Relief Pitching Shoe and Colome get dumped so we can try out other players like Jovani Moran, Yennier Cano, and possibly others for bullpen spots for next year. Don't care what I get for them. Just get rid of them. I would trade Rogers and the Doof for a good deal but I'm not expecting to get blown away for them. Should be similar to the Pressley deal as far as value (turned out to be a good trade imo). Definitely trade Robles too. Keep all of the younger guys like Alcala, Stashak, etc. Summary My goal in trades is to bring back the best talent possible regardless of level or position. I'll be targeting starting pitchers and shortstops with a maybe a relief prospect or two mixed in. I'll be targeting prospects at lower levels like Low and High A because of the increased value I can get in trades for those guys this year due to injuries and teams hanging on to their prospects at AA and above. If I trade Berrios, I'm expecting at least 1 and maybe 2 top 100 prospects depending on where they are in the top 100. Unlike most of the other guys I might trade I'll be targeting a higher upside SP prospect as high eventual replacement in the rotation that replaces Berrios if I trade him. Pearson, Gore, Baz, SWR, etc. None of these guys should be off the table in the right deal for Berrios and maybe 1 more guy like Cruz, Pineda, or a reliever thrown in. Ideas for specific trades can be found here:https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=491
  16. Obligatory "Will is stronger than your doubt" comment needed from Dusty... lol.
  17. For me I want them to get the best prospect they can get regardless of the level they are at. The main reason they got Duran is because he was in Low A at the time so he was much farther from the majors which means a higher risk of whiffing on the prospect. They also picked him up before he broke out when his value was lower too compared to now when he's a top 100 guy. Same thing happened against the Twins with Ynoa and Gil when they traded them away.
  18. Love this trade idea. Sending the Rays some cash and getting them out from under KK's contract will definitely help in getting some quality prospects. Very similar to some Twins/Rays trade ideas I have posted on that website previously
  19. I think Falvey has delivered the pipeline of pitching talent but it's just been delayed due to COVID cancelling the minors season last year and all of the injuries now in the following year. Canterino, Enlow, Sands, Ober, Winder, Duran, etc. are all guys they have acquired and developed since taking over. We would usually have only ONE, MAYBE TWO, guys like that in the system in any given year in those "rebuilding years" from 2011-2016 and that was WITH drafting high for guys like Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart. I definitely think Falvey has held up his end of the pipeline even if we're only just barely starting to see the fruits of those labors. The trades (Levine) and FA have been more of a mixed bag. You have to give Levine credit for Cruz given their past history in Texas but a lot of their top targets that they missed out on have looked great elsewhere (Darvish, Wheeler, Semien) while their back up targets haven't been as good (JD, Simmons). Some trades like for Odorizzi and Duran have been good but others like Ynoa, Gil, etc. have been bad. The Pressley trade was hated at the time but Celestino and Alcala both look like quality current/future big leaguers. Mixed bag that will grade much more negatively after their whiffs with Happ, Colome, and Shoemaker this year. I'll chalk up their pitching FA whiffs this year to bad luck/variance and give them a mulligan but if they whiff again next year I'll likely have lost faith in them at that point.
  20. I would rather keep them both but if we have to pick one I'd extend Buxton and trade Berrios. Give me the MVP candidate and I'll roll the dice on health. Berrios should fetch a HAUL at the trade deadline otherwise they can hang onto him for another year.
  21. Both option 1 and 3 seem fine. The Chi Sox should be paying a PREMIUM for an intradivision trade. Isn't that what we always keep hearing from national reporters? I'm asking for either Kelley or BOTH Thompson AND Dalquist for Cruz and some cash sent to the Sox. Might have to throw in a reliever like Robles or Alex (if they want him back) but that should be a doable trade. Otherwise the Rays are the other team that we know is/was interested in Cruz for trade.
  22. Agree but I think either Burrows or an injured guy like Stashak or Smeltzer will take Robles' roster spot when traded. Hopefully, Alexander and Happ gets dumped too for someone else like Winder and Moran/Cano.
  23. Hi John, Are you including buyouts for payroll? Sańo is only owed 9.25M for 2022. His 2.75M buyout is only for the 2023 team option. Not sure if Alexander's buyout is included either. Spelling error on Garlick too.
  24. Only trade Garver if you get a great haul back. When healthy he was back to 2019 form and given his multiple years of team control he SHOULD bring back a big haul of great prospects back. If not, keep both here. Personally I think they need to play every day as we saw them struggle this year when paired together. With that in mind you either have Jeffers at AAA in case of injury for a year or two until Garver is gone or you keep both up and mix Garver in at 1B and DH. With AK and Sano on the roster that leaves a bit of a crunch for all 3 to play at those spots. Unless Sano turns it around he might have to be dumped in the offseason to make room at DH/1B for AK, Garver, and maybe the rest of the DHing is a rotation of guys like JD and Rooker. Here is what the position player roster might look like next year assuming Buck doesn't get traded: Larnach LF Buxton CF Kepler RF JD 3B FA SS Polanco 2B 1B Kirilloff C Jeffers DH Garver Bench: Rortvedt C, Arraez and Gordon Super utility, Rooker/Cave Backup OF Assuming they get a good FA SS that's going to be a great lineup imo.
  25. My position with both Berrios and Buxton is the same. Extend them if they will sign a "reasonable" extension (~5/100M tops for Berrios and ~6/150M tops for Buxton for me imo) or trade them at the deadline while their value is at its peak. If you cannot get get good value on a trade you can still just hang on to them and try to extend them in the offseason one last time. The Twins should be able to get at least 1 if not 2 top 100 prospects for each. Ideally you get a future CF replacement like Pache and future rotation piece like Gore, Pearson, SWR, or Baz back to replace the guy you trade away, then use some of the money saved to sign a quality FA or two like Gausman/Stroman/Baez/Correa and combine all of that to reload for 2022. Call it Tampa Bay 2.0 because the Twins payroll isn't THAT low.
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