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Everything posted by Seansy

  1. Excellent work! Appreciate the time put into it. After the first 2 picks this was an easy A+ draft regardless of what came next. The VT shortstop is interesting to me given he outproduced Gavin Cross when they played together. Hopefully some other guys also end up becoming contributors too.
  2. From FG: Twins got 1 of 4 55-60 prospects at 8 https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0 Connor was ranked 27th (with tremendous variance) Schobel 66. The fact that he outproduced Gavin Cross on the same team has been an interesting factoid to learn about him. 2022 MLB Draft: Day One Recap | FanGraphs Baseball
  3. I think this analysis requires more columns for more categories. Perhaps BB% and some other ones. Strike % is fine but can be misleading as some players throw less strikes but give up fewer walks than other players that throw more strikes.
  4. I have many doubts on this. For 1, he obviously needs to ditch the cutter but he's been lucky on his fastball too. The regression on his fastball is to the NEGATIVE. His xba and xslg are both higher than his actual numbers for the fastball! https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/emilio-pagan-641941?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb His new splitter has been great but that's his only good pitch right now. Awful cutter, mediocre at best fastball, and a great splitter. I remain skeptical.
  5. I know this may not be a popular suggestion but Gordon has barely played the infield this year. He's basically a good defensive outfielder that is a below average hitter. His defense isn't good enough to offset the lack of offense. Especially with Celestino playing well. Maybe his numbers will improve soon but if they need a spot for Garlick and AK then Gordon and Soto make the most sense for position players to be removed. Otherwise just DFA Duffey to have 1 less arm in the BP.
  6. The ongoing struggles of Henriquez, Balazovic, and Sands has been disappointing at AAA. Hoping for Canterino to fix his walk issues too.
  7. I think it probably should of happened a while ago and once other players come back from the IL Buck should be added on it too.
  8. He should be DFA'D but he likely will get a phantom IL stint first and is still unlikely to be DFA'D afterwards.
  9. I am happy to see Larnach playing well and the underlying metrics all support his success as being sustainable and not luck based. My only 2 concerns are that 1) his whiff percentage and K percentage so high that he may more easily go into a slump because of how often he does not make contact. 2) His statcast numbers against breaking balls are bad despite some good BABIP luck and he literally has 0 hits against offspeed pitches. I would bet teams throw him more changeups and it will require an adjustment from Larnach to compensate for his abysmal results against the pitch thus far.
  10. I liked the trade at the time and nothing has happened to change my opinion now. The Twins likely won that trade but until we see the two prospects provide value it is TBD.
  11. A lot of older players dominating younger hitters. Hopefully promotions start happening soon to challenge some of these pitchers.
  12. AsI have said elsewhere. Keep Smeltzer in the rotation and move Archer to long relief as other SPs get healthy. Archer's stuff is fine 1st time through the order but craters the 2nd time through. This is why he should move to long relief instead of laboring through 4 innings in every start.
  13. We got both Celestino and Alcala for 1.5 years of Pressly. I know some people will complain that the Twins somehow would beat NY instead of getting swept with an unavailable "ace" and Pressly on the team but that trade is clearly a win for the FO given how well both players have turned out.
  14. I thought he might potentially replace Gordon as the utility player if Gordon cannot play SS as a back up. TBD...
  15. I have always been a big believer in the FO's work to find relievers over signing big money FAs. Whether it is developed internally or a minor league FA getting a chance, they have enough options to rotate through until someone sticks. Thielbar, Coulombe, Stashak, Duffey, Duran, Smith, Alcala, etc. have all had success through this process. Whether it is Austin, Sisk, Moran, Cano, or Hamilton etc. eventually they will find another guy or more to stick in the BP for the team.
  16. I think Smeltzer should be up and starting. Move Archer to a long relief role to piggyback off of another starter since he struggles multiple times through a lineup and keeps getting pulled quickly. Leave Canterino to develop as a starter.
  17. Rodriguez is definitely cheating but with both Stank and Festa promoted it makes picking a Low A guy tricky. Raya and Hajjar were both picks in the first 5 rounds. Either Perez or Fedko would be my picks for Low A even if they are old for the level.
  18. I would say none of these issues need to be addressed right now and aren't likely to be addressed at the deadline either. For 1B, Arraez can hold down the fort just fine. After him it will be some combination of AK when he starts hitting better or Sańo after a lengthy rehab appearance to get his timing back. LF is Larnach's spot. The pitching has been above average and aside from an injury I would rather the team stay pat. Don't forget Maeda will be back at some point this year!
  19. This is the most depressing injury news for the Twins this season in that AK's injury may be career ending/altering and would rob him and Twins fans of what looked like an outstanding career. All the best to him.
  20. I think calling him a 4th outfielder sells him short on both his prospect pedigree and production. He was never a global top 100 guy but as a big bonus international signing with good success in the minors he projected somewhere between a glove first back up CF if he couldn't keep up hitting to an either average or above average CF starter depending on his hitting. He should be treated as the primary back up CF to Buxton when he's out but one that also plays regularly against LHP in the corners with Garlick to give Max and Trevor an occasional day off. That should give him plenty of PA to maintain his hitting approach and be successful contributing to the team.
  21. My two favorite targets, Gausman and Rodón, have been incredible and would of been great additions but a lot of other big money free agents like Stroman and Semien have struggled so far this year. My reasoning for those two was that they didn't have a QO attached and I felt more confident they could replicate their results than Ray. Given how well the rotation has pitched so far and the addition of Correa it is hard to fault the result. If Bundy pitches well all season they have an option for him plus 1 more year of control for Gray. Archer is likely gone at season's end but I'm guessing they fill his spot long term with Winder. After next year Bundy and Gray should be replaced with some combination of Balazovic, Canterino, Sands, Henriquez, etc. depending on their performance in the minors. The pitching pipeline is finally starting to bear fruit!
  22. It certainly would be nice if they could keep him for longer than 1 year. We'll see how much is it blowing smoke when next offseason rolls around.
  23. I would rather make a lower cost trade for 1 of Manea, Freeland, or Elieser Hernandez. It doesn't have to be Montas/Manea or bust if the bidding gets out of control.
  24. Given how many higher upside SP prospects are behind him shifting Jax to the BP seems like the best chance for him to stick and be productive in the majors. Agree with this assessment 100%.
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