Seansy

Sadly, this feels nearly inevitable at this point. Pohlad's pocket the revenue sharing money while they can before a potential lockout and salary cap/floor while selling the fanbase on a rebuild of young players they get by trading Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers. If Ober and Lewis bounce back they will be traded at the deadline too. God willing we do get a cap and floor so the Pohlads will be forced to spend.

I don't disagree with your premise but having a few counterfactuals against the rebuild argument would strengthen your case. Plenty more rebuilds fail than succeed (ownership spending is part of the issue).

Isn't Adam's being used mostly in relief? I think that's part of the reason he isn't getting as much hype as other prospects.

There is no downside for the Twins to sign him to a 2 year minor league deal. At this point, it is up to Matt to decide on his destination for FA, but I hope the Twins make the offer because he would deserve it given his efforts thus far to come back from injury.

Given our OFers injury history and that Keirsey has options he will be depth at AAA in case of injury. Just needs to keep making adjustments and be ready when he gets his next chance.

I have long been of the opinion that there is no such thing as an touchable player for trades. With that said, trading Lopez now would require a massive haul to justify trading him. There are a few large market teams with enough interesting top 100 prospects to consider it, but if the reaction isn't an obvious win for the Twins than they need to pass.

The #1 reason Ober won't/shouldn't get an extension is the 1 thing not mentioned in this article: Ober is already 29 years old with 3 years of team control remaining. Any extension will be for his age 32 and up seasons. Unless the Twins get a steal of a deal that pays him way less than he is projected to make they will go year to year with him until he is traded or becomes a FA. You could make the same case to extend Joe Ryan since he is a year younger than Bailey and also has 3 years of control left but for the same reasons he is unlikely to be extended. For contrast, Pablo is only a few months older than Joe and he is also signed for exactly 3 more years.

Dumped Paddack to create payroll room to add Coulombe as a LHP and meet the budget requirement of 130M. Topa starts in AAA to 1) prove he is healthy and 2) keep Henriquez since he is out of options to maintain depth. Might be able to dump Vazquez for a different back up C but I'm not confident any FA back up C on the market will be much better. C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M) 1B: Jose Mirands ($0.80M) 2B: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M) SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.80M) 4th OF: DaShawn Keirsey ($0.80M) Utility: Willi Castro ($6.20M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M) SP4: David Festa ($0.8M) SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M) RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M) RP: Michael Tonkin ($1M) RP: Ronny Henriquez ($0.8M) RP: Danny Coulombe ($2.20M) NA: Justin Topa ($1.3M) Payroll is 2.31% under budget

While this is a fair analysis of how much value the Twins FO has gained as of TODAY for offseason trades, I think it is going to get significantly worse over the next few years. Unless injuries totally derail both Gil's and Petty's careers I would bet both of those guys add plenty of value for their current teams. I also think the combination of Cruz and Sisk together could overtake Taylor's value over 1 year but that's still TBD. When you look at the ledgers, the Twins side of value is basically already maxed out. I personally would count DeBarge on the plus side of the ledger for the Gray trade even if he wasn't actually part of the trade. Outside of that, it's only Rayne Doncon, a decent prospect, but no sure bet to make the majors. If Petty and Gil both have decently long successful careers that 13.9 overall WAR figure could easily become a negative WAR total before too long... That's the problem in trying to assess trades of prospects for established veterans. 1 side of the ledger is frequently still TBD and creates a mistaken impression of the trade until that side is resolved.

The bigger issue is the drop in payroll. That's what's caused the ratios to get out of whack. Given how talented Buxton, Correa, and Lopez are we are still paying them less than their production by a good amount. Also, Correa's salary drops by 4.5M after this year too. Trading Vasquez, Paddack, and even Castro should take priority over trading any of Buxton, Correa, or Lopez if salary relief is needed.

Would be a collosal mistake unless they get back a massive overwhelming return. Correa's contract is extremely reasonable for a mid market team. They have other contracts to dump from underperforming players before ever considering trading Correa. Would signal to any other big FA to disregard MN as they value salary relief over winning.

Sadly, I doubt the Twins make any major league FA signings at all. They're already up against their payroll cap as is and even if they trade some combination of Paddack, Vasquez, and/or Castro it is more likely they add elsewhere than the BP. If they do add to the BP it's going to be in the bargain bin for 2-3M. Anything at 5M for the year is highly unlikely.

I'm going to assume everyone arb eligible is kept aside from Tonkin. Cutting AK only saves 1M over a min salary guy and I don't think the FO and coaches want to give up on him despite the injuries. There is a chance they trade Castro to save money but he's not getting DFA'D. The other main trade candidate is Paddack. Maybe a new ownership group saves the day but assuming everyone is kept that I listed and they fill the last 3 26man spots with minimum salary guys their ~payroll is around 135M. If payroll remains frozen at 130M that means someone will be traded to make up the difference and my bet is on Paddack right now. 40 man is going to be very interesting to follow. Lots of marginal guys that could be kept or cut. Lots of guys they could potentially add.

Great story you found! Well done!

Great idea Seth! Love it! Hopefully someone from the FO is regularly reading Twins Daily so they inquire on his availability.

Rodón and Correa are the two big FA targets I wanted the Twins to target this year. Gausman last year. Missed opportunities.

When older players are on the last year of their deal it is prudent to either trade them or extend them depending on how the team thinks the players are valued and how the team will perform in the coming year. Given that the team thinks they can compete in a weak AL Central I don't think they trade anyone during the offseason besides Max. I think extending Mahle makes sense given his youth but Gray might also be amendable to adding on 2 years to his deal. It's hard to say though given the crazy amount of spending this offseason if players will want to forgo FA next year but he seems like the type of person to favor stability over uncertainty. Beyond those 2 I think Pagan is addition by subtraction and gives other players in the system a chance to contribute and get experience with the big league club. Kenta is a possible trade candidate but only midseason imo, coming off a major injury he won't have much value. If the team sucks they can deal him to a contender if the team is competitive they can hold on to him and see about resigning him. Polanco is probably also a midseason trade candidate to give other guys like Austin Martin and Julien a chance to succeed in AAA before being promoted. Just like Kenta he can be dealt or held onto based on the team's performance. I think the Twins should also add a reliever or 2 in FA on a 1 year or 1 year + option deal to help shore up the BP after dumping Pagan to have available at the trade deadline like Fulmer and Phelps.

Defensive metrics have improved over time but they are definitely less reliable than offense ones. Rosie definitely fell off defensively in 2019 but bounced back after that so I think it really was the injury that hurt him most.

I was going off fWAR which shows a drop from 4.0 (a career high) to 0.9. Eddie had giant drops in both offensive and defensive production that year. You may recall he was playing with a hurt ankle (or some other injury in that area). Teams mostly didn't run on him due to his strong arm but his range was awful (likely due to the injury). His OPS was ~ the same from 2018-2019 but you have to remember that was the juiced ball year where offense was up across baseball. Having the same OPS actually dings him for not improving his numbers like the rest of the league. This explains his wRC+ dropping from 114 to 104. He went from good offense/mediocre defense to average offense (for a corner OF)/abysmal defender. He had a magical postseason and a great end of the season with the Braves but he had a .397 OPS in the first half of the year after they cut him! Nobody claimed him off waivers! He was awful last year too! Their career OPS comparison is .767 for Rosario and .744 for Kepler. The difference in value is in their defense.

Max has always provided at least 2 WAR every year since he became a regular in 2016. Outside of 2019 (3.8) he has never eclipsed 2.5 WAR (2020 could of extrapolated to over 3 WAR but with health who knows how many games he plays *shrug*). 1 WAR = ~8M dollar. His salary is 8.5M this year and 10M next year. The option will get picked up. Max has surplus value relative to his contract. If he is part of a deal for some kind of impact pitcher I am fine trading him but the number of people acting like he's just a salary dump at this point is absurd. I think Larnach should be penciled into 1 corner OF spot but with Wallner's poor defense and very high K% I am concerned about his adjustment to MLB pitching. I think he could use some more time in AAA to work on his defense and his swing. He should be depth at AAA in case of an injury to Max or Larnach rather than starting the year with the team. As Matt correctly notes, Larnach has struggled to stay healthy lately so having a good depth option at AAA makes more sense than plugging in Gordon to start if an injury happens. I would hold onto Max barring some trade proposal.

I think Nick has the right structure in place for what the contract looks like but it is missing 1 key piece to ensure it is enough to win the bidding. Deferrals. If Correa is dead set on beating Lindor's deal you might need to kick in an extra 2M a year in deferred money for X number of years to exceed Lindor's guarantee. Personally, my preference for big contracts would lean towards position players just because of the reduced chance of career altering injuries compared to pitchers. Nothing is guaranteed but as long as we are doing a crazy big deal investing in a great player it might as well be a great up the middle player.

Yes! Please do! ?

Ugh, this accidentally posted before I finished. How do I delete this?

C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Carlos Correa ($35.1M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5.0M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 9.57% under budget

Agree 100% her with you Ted. With Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Ryan, and Ober, plus the depth behind them with Winder, SWR, and Varland, the Twins absolutely should not sign another back-end starter. Front end starter or bust for me right now.