Seansy

As always it depends on the cost. If the Twins can keep their top 6 or 7 best prospects it is probably worth trading for him and offering him the qualifying offer to recoup some of the prospect cost to acquire him.

I would love to use Castellanos' contract as a contract dump with a pitcher like Gray or Castillo! Unfortunately that means no Cruz but given his age compared to Castellanos (2021 is his age 29 season) I think that is a worthwhile move given the reduction in cost to acquire a front line starter. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ I don't know how accurate this trade simulator is but it shows the cost for those two would be either 1 of Garver, Duran, Dobnak, or Balazovic or some combination of lesser prospects. I would happily trade any of those 4 to get Castellanos and Gray. If I had to pick 1 it would probably be Garver so Jeffers starts full time and we use a veteran back up like Castro. Now, it also says we could get those two for Smeltzer, Astudillo, and Maciel and that's just silly so take it with a grain of salt but I really think Castellanos' contract isn't terrible for what he is but since the Reds are trying to cut costs... This might be a sneaky pick up. Who knows, maybe the Pohlads REALLY want to go all in and approve bringing back Cruz for 1 year AND Castellanos plays LF for 1 year. Always fun to dream right

Good tidbit from Aaron this morning on the podcast with John was that the Twins were worried they would have to pay Wisler closer to 4-5 million if they went to arbitration because of his amazing ERA being prorated over a full season by an arbiter. I think that worry is a little overblown but if that's the sense they got from Wisler's agent it at least explains a bit better why they nontendered him.

Couldn't agree with you more Cody. The Twins FO really deserves a lot of credit for finding and acquiring undervalued pitchers and developing them into real difference makers for the team. Wisler, Duffey, Thielbar, Maeda, Odorizzi, Duran, Alcala, and Dobnak have all been acquired (except Duffey) and developed into major pitching pieces for the club. I trust Falvine to find more undervalued targets that can contribute to the team going forward.

Fantasy baseball does not equal real baseball. Cruz and Rosario are rated highly for fantasy baseball because they hit 3 and 4 on a good offense so they rack up lots of RBIs. The more important thing to look at is the OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) of the player compared to the average for their position as well as how good they are defensively. Rosario rates about average offensively for a LF and is generally considered below average defensively despite a strong arm because of lots of wild bad throws and less range than average. He also hurts the team on the basepaths with how often he gets thrown out with boneheaded baserunning decisions. The most similar player to Eddie statistically is Corey Dickerson, he's literally the most similar player on baseball reference, and Dickerson is a better career hitter and generally regarded as a better fielder. As a free agent last offseason Dickerson signed a 2 year 17.5M deal with the Marlins. Eddie is projected to get ~10-13 million in arbitration this year depending on how arbitration works with the shortened season. Given how little Dickerson got as a FA last year with NO COVID revenue issues as a somewhat better player to Eddie and the fact that the Twins think Kirilloff is ready to play on just a minimum salary for 600k, it makes sense for the Twins to get rid of Eddie to save that money to spend elsewhere. Since Dickerson got less than Eddie will make in arbitration this year and most teams are acting strapped for cash, very few teams will be interested in trading for Eddie when they know the Twins will almost assuredly non tender him and they can sign him for his "true market value" of 5-7 million instead. I hope this explains why most outside observers assume the Twins will non tender Rosario. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dickeco01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosared01.shtml

Not a fan of signing Anderson and I'm guessing Pilar will want to sign as a starter somewhere but otherwise I like your list

With the recent changes in the offseason here's my updated look at how the Twins can fill out their team while keeping to a 10% payroll cut. I tinkered with the numbers a bit (raising SP amounts, lowered Rogers figure, manually entered Gyorko) based off of what Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors put forth on contracts and arbitration. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o_RbVgIjFQ3oNfyy4uqecJONescFSiJ4WuSR1XJkm5c/edit?usp=sharing

With the recent changes in the offseason here's my updated look at how the Twins can fill out their team while keeping to a 10% payroll cut. I tinkered with the numbers a bit (raising SP amounts, lowered Rogers figure, manually entered Gyorko) based off of what Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors put forth on contracts and arbitration. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o_RbVgIjFQ3oNfyy4uqecJONescFSiJ4WuSR1XJkm5c/edit?usp=sharing

I like the idea behind it but Bauer seems more likely to take a long term deal as the best FA SP in the market this year. Unless the Pohlads say "F it, we're tired of not ever winning a playoff game. Go get him." he will likely sign elsewhere but it's fun to imagine and dream on the unlikely scenarios...

Yeah, saw that. If he declines I would still look into it because the Twins don't lose a high pick as a revenue sharing receiving team but I would assume he accepts it. He's stated previously an interest in returning to SF too. Another interesting note is Jedd Gyorko is a utility option since the Brewers declined his option. Assuming he's in the 3-5M range he would be a solid target for the Twins too.

Here is the link to their Top 50 Free Agent List with player write ups, community estimated contracts and Fangraphs estimated contracts. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/ Looking through the list the names that jumped out to me as good targets based on their projected contracts, need for the Twins, and upside/projected production are as follows: 12: Michael Brantley 2 years/24M Good Cruz replacement if he signs a 2 year deal elsewhere. 14: Kevin Gausman 2 years/28M or 3 years/36M Good breakout year in 2020 and always had potential. Good value signing imo that may be undervalued by the short season. Could backload the contract if payroll is tight. 16: Andrelton Simmons 2 years/17M Ankle injury really hurt him offensively and defensively this year. This move makes more sense if the Twins want to make Polanco their super utility guy or move him to 2B and make Arraez the super utility guy. Might be more likely to sign a 1 year deal to rebuild value. 19: Tommy La Stella 2 years/14-17M Super utility player 20: Nelson Cruz 1 year 12M I'm only giving him 1 year guaranteed. If he get's a 2nd guaranteed year elsewhere I'm passing. 21: Trevor May 2 years/12M 2nd best rated BP guy. Insane HR/FB will regress. Love the guy and this projected contract is reasonable. I took him over Rogers at this cost in my payroll spreadsheet. 24: Jake Odorizzi 1 year/12M or 3 years/39M He looked good when healthy just never could stay healthy. Unlikely to get the long term deal he wants but who knows. Might be more likely to sign a 1 year deal to rebuild value. 25: Drew Smyly 2 years/17M or 1 year 5-10M I like Smyly a lot. Him and Gausman were the 2 players I picked for the Twins' 4th and 5th SP spots in the payroll spreadsheet and even at a larger cost than the Twins Daily writers projected I would still target them as my top 2 starting pitchers. 26: Kolton Wong 2 years/15M Surprise add to the list. Would play 2B everyday and move Arraez to super utility. 27: Mike Minor 2 years/14M Might be more likely to sign a 1 year deal to rebuild value. Would want to work him out first to make sure his velocity is ok. 34: Alex Colome: 2 years/14M Good reliever. 35: Jurickson Profar 2 years/9-15M Super utility guy 36: Trevor Rosenthal 2 years/13-16M Good reliever is healthy again. 37: Kirby Yates 2 years/10M or 1 year/7M Might be more likely to take a 1 year deal to rebuild value. Great when healthy. 39: Corey Kluber 1 year/9M Bounce back SP target 40: Joakim Soria 1 year/7M Solid reliever 42: Garrett Richards 1 year/7M Always injured but good when healthy (ala Rich Hill) 46: Robbie Ray 1 year/8M Bounce back SP target 48: Robbie Grossman 1 year/6M If the Twins miss on Cruz and Brantley or they don't want Brantley Robbie's improved defense and power plus his existing on base skills make him a great stopgap as a LF/DH. Not listed: Tyler Clippard 1year/3.5M Clippard is my #1 BP target. Consistently been very good for a long time, durable, very cheap and was excellent last year. He was as good or better than nearly all of the other top FA relievers, will cost half as much with no multiyear deal needed. Sign me up. Kike Hernandez 1 year/5-7M Much discussed super utility guy that may be more affordable than we thought to begin this offseason. Clippard and Hernandez weren't included in Keith Law's top 40 Free Agents list either. I didn't include Bauer because I don't think the Twins will pursue him, especially with the lost revenue of this past season. What do you guys think of Fangraphs' list and the players I highlighted as targets? What are the players you would target or avoid? Let me know your thoughts!

Pretty split so far but my vote would be to keep him unless his FB velocity remains at 90MPH or less. As we saw, he got batted around pretty badly at that velocity this year. If he's at 91+ he can, at a minimum, eat up bulk innings as a long reliever in the hopes you can help him work through his issues. Personally I hope they don't give up on him after 1 bad year but we shall see.

I used the options listed at Fangraphs and given how they've prorated so much else for the season for 2020 there is no reason for me to believe they wouldn't do the same for 2020 for a 4th option year. If anyone else can clarify feel free to do so but this is my current understanding.

I agree with your overview. I think the biggest thing the Twins need to do is find the good value moves they have had recently like Thielbar, Wisler, Dobnak, etc to help with filling out the rotation and BP so they can keep Cruz for 1 year. If Cruz gets a 2 year deal somewhere else (like the White Sox) you let him walk and they can replace his bat with someone like Brantley or maybe Grossman. The market seems like it will be really depressed given all of the options being declined so I think the cost to acquire interesting bounce back candidates like Kluber or undervalued guys like Smyley and Clippard will go a long way to filling out the roster as the team waits for their top prospects to matriculate through the system. Outside of bringing back Clippard and tendering Rogers I don't think the Twins need to spend a lot of money on the BP like a lot of other teams. Outside of spending big on a bat like Cruz the other big issue for me is getting a quality "10th" man to cover for Polanco and Donaldson given their injury history like Iglesias or Hernandez. I would spend most of my FA money on those two roster spots, Clippard, and a couple interesting bounceback/undervalued guys not on this year's team.

Anthony Bass and Justin Wilson for RP targets? I really like Smiley as an under the radar target.

Lewis Thorpe is out of options. The Twins either need to keep him on the MLB team as their 5th starter or as a reliever out of the bullpen or expose him to waivers when sending him down. Given his prospect pedigree I'm almost certain some rebuilding team will grab him and throw him out there to see if they can get something out of him if he gets exposed to the waiver wire so the question is as follows: If Thorpe doesn't impress at ST for a 5th starters job or even a BP role do you expose him to waivers or keep him and hope he you can fix his issues during the year? Let me know your thoughts!

Given Littel has an option remaining I'd hope they keep him on the 40 man if for no other reason to see if he can rediscover his form from 2019 at AAA.

Lopez and Hernandez don't seem like good targets unless you're willing to give up alot because they have 4 years of team control left AND broke out this year. Since Urena only has 1 year of arb left and Yamamoto has multiple years of team control but was awful last year and neither figures into their rotation plans for 2021 both of these players would be better targets for the Twins imo. Rosie + a C prospect for Urena is a solid opening offer if Rosie for Jon Gray doesn't happen. I'm not sure what the Marlins would want for Yamamoto but if his last option was used in 2020 (per FG) he could be a good option as a cheap 5th starter if they think they can improve his mechanics/pitch mix since the Marlins can't stash him in the minors.

I voted to keep him on the 40 man roster. He still has 1 option left so you see if he can bounceback and fix his issues next year so he can be a cheap, useful, middle reliever for the team going forward. He's also still plenty young too!

Here is what I got: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Prp6k25-99NVzLPsttNf2rLyRySGdR-OQ56w_RzoB14/edit#gid=0 I like Gausman and Smyly a lot at the projected prices provided in the spreadsheet. I think they provide the best value for SP at those prices. For DH I think Brantley is a great alternative if Cruz doesn't come back as he can spell players at the corner OF and is younger and possibly cheaper. For LF you could have Rooker/Cave platoon until Kiriloff is down at AAA for a couple months playing LF full time to be ready to play there long term. Brandon Warne's suggestion to trade Rosario for Jon Gray from CO could take the 5th spot in the rotation as well. If I'm going over budget anywhere it is to upgrade utility for someone better than Adrianza/Blankenhorn. Smeltzer is the long reliever at the 8th spot in the BP. Clippard is my top target for the BP given his track record, how good he was last year, and his low cost. Great value. May and Rogers are interchangeable but if we can find a decent trade option for Rogers so we can sign May that would ideal.

I like the idea behind targeting a pitcher like Stephenson in a trade with another team but as spycake notes it won't come from a team that is looking to contend like the Reds. Regarding the options for FA I like resigning Clippard a lot given his low cost and track record of success. May will likely be outside of our price range given the likely reduction in payroll next year but if that depresses the market enough he could potentially be viable to bring back. I think Andrew Chafin might be a good bounceback candidate that shouldn't cost more than 2-3 million tops. Justin Wilson and Anthony Bass are other good options to look at and potentially target as well.

I like Brandon Warne's idea of swapping Rosie for Gray. Pretty fair trade idea since they are both nontender candidates. He could take the 5th spot if we sign Odo or Gausman as our 4th starter.

Here's my rough offseason outline: I think Rosie is either tendered and later traded or is non tendered. Either Rosie or Cave/Rooker(Pillar?) platoon will hold down LF until Alex is used to playing exclusively LF in AAA for a couple of months. He gets called up after that and hopefully takes over there for the next 7 years. I would also be interested in signing Kevin Pillar as Buxton insurance given Buxton's injury history. For utility it will probably be either Gordon or an outside FA. I'm done with Marwin and Ehire. Maybe Blankenhorn could reprise Marwin's super utility role? More bat first than defense obviously. I want them to sign 2 starting pitchers and have Dobnak as the 6th starter in Rochester in case of injury. Odo and Hill are fine to bring back on 1 year deals. If Bauer truly wants a 1 year deal he would be my top FA target besides Cruz. If we have to sign Cruz for 2 years to keep him I would do it. He's so integral to the lineup and the clubhouse. Obviously prefer to keep it to 1 year with maybe a vesting option or a highish buyout on the option but we need to keep him. I count 6 BP arms we can count on in Rogers (move him off closer and use him mostly against LHB), Duffey, Thielbar, Wisler, Stashak, and Alcala. Assuming we go back to a 26 man roster next year that leave's two spots open. I think May will sign a multiyear deal elsewhere for as much money as he can get. Biggest FA contract to a reliever Falvine gave out was 2 years to Addison Reed and with the question marks on revenue for next year I doubt they will meet May's asking price. Signing relievers to long term deals rarely work out and the Twins keep finding guys for cheap from all sorts of places that the money can be better spent elsewhere. Hopefully they can bring back Clippard. Romo's option should be declined but they can try to bring him back for less if he's interested. Otherwise they have 2 spots to fill for either Clippard/Romo or different FAs. Chalmers and Colina need more time to develop in the minors but they will be the next wave of young BP arms to join as injuries inevitably hit. Finally with Jeffers I would start him at AAA and sign a back up C for Garver to start. If Garver continues to struggle offensively for a prolonged period or gets injured again Jeffers is ready to step back in to catch full time. Garver has 2 options remaining so if he struggles offensively again he can go down to AAA to try to get himself right. As you can see, outside of possibly LF and back up IF I don't have any of the Twins' young players with the team to start the year but I expect with injuries that most of them will inevitably get called up during the year. If you start the year with all the young players on the opening day roster and they struggle or get injured there is no depth to fall back on because they are already up with the team! That's my view at least.

I think Rosie is either tendered and later traded or is non tendered. Either Rosie or Cave/Rooker platoon will hold down LF until Alex is used to playing exclusively LF in AAA for a couple of months. For utility it will probably be either Gordon or an outside FA. I'm done with Marwin and Ehire. I want them to sign 2 starting pitchers and have Dobnak as the 6th starter in Rochester in case of injury. Odo and Hill are fine to bring back on 1 year deals. If Bauer truly wants a 1 year deal he would be my top FA target besides Cruz. Don't forget Thielbar for the 6th spot in our 8 man BP! I think May will sign a multiyear deal elsewhere for as much money as he can get. Biggest FA contract to a reliever they gave was 2 years to Addison Reed and with the question marks on revenue for next year I doubt they will meet May's asking price. Hopefully they can bring back Clippard. Romo's option should be declined but they can try to bring him back for less if he's interested. Otherwise they have 2 spots to fill for either Clippard/Romo, different FAs, or internally with Chalmers/Colina.

It is really frustrating as a fan to hear about injury issues after their season ends rather than during the lead up to the postseason. It ends up just sounding like excuses when we know that's not the case. Is Rocco's habit of saying NOTHING about injuries some kind of competitive advantage thing or is he just a big Belichek wannabe? We knew about Buxton's concussion and shoulder but now he has some unexplained issue that they won't elaborate on? We knew about Kepler being injured previously but it was still bothering him? He also was banged up at the end of the year last year too. Same thing for Garver. Polanco's ankle was a problem that was never mentioned until the end of the year TWICE! Last year and this year again. At this point we have to wonder if ANY of our core players will ever enter the playoffs healthy enough to produce. How F'ed up is that??? I never even knew Arraez had a history of knee issues for so long so I appreciate the info.