What Will Minnesota Twins Do with Matt Wallner?

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Matt Wallner may have been the least of the Twins' issues in 2025, but the step back he took offensively didn’t help the floundering lineup. The offense needs a complete overhaul, with very few players locked into the plans moving forward. What do the decision-makers do with Matt Wallner?

Wallner’s struggles in 2025 were frustrating to watch. After a strong season-plus to begin his career, showing that he’s more than an all-or-nothing slugger, he regressed to being more of a three-true-outcomes player last season. Despite a career-low strikeout rate, he hit .202 while slugging 22 homers. Though he still walked nearly 12% of the time, the contact he made was not very valuable, unless the ball was going over the fence.

After two strong seasons of performing in the clutch, Wallner’s Win Probability Added went negative in 2025. He took a step back in his performance against fastballs. His hard-hit and barrel rates declined. After posting strong batting averages on balls in play throughout his professional career, his .228 mark in 2025 was well below average. A flatter swing led to both more ground balls and more high fly balls and pop-ups. The Twins clearly lost faith in him, as he was moved down in the lineup, and he never put together any consistent stretch at the plate.

With the lineup in need of a complete overhaul, it’s hard to say what the Twins will do to try to turn things around in 2026. Trevor Larnach is an obvious candidate to be shipped out, because of his lack of development and higher price tag. The team also acquired James Outman and Alan Roden as fellow left-handed-hitting, MLB-ready outfielders. They acquired left-handed hitting corner outfielder Henry Mendez, who will be on the 40-man roster in 2026. Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins will begin the season in Triple-A St. Paul. The team’s logjam of this player type opens the door for several potential moves.

A case can be made to trade Wallner. Defense has never been a strong suit for him, but especially with the number of outfielders on the way, he likely won’t be long for everyday playing time. He may be a long-term DH in the Twins’ eyes, and if another team views him as a usable outfielder, he may have enough value for the Twins to work out a deal. 

The team is also likely considering the possibility that Wallner has been found out by opposing teams. He was repeatedly overpowered at the plate in 2025, and if the Twins don’t think this is fixable, they may learn from past mistakes and decide to trade him before his value bottoms out, as it has for so many others in the organization in the last year.

That being said, Wallner’s “down year” still included a .776 OPS, good for 14% above league average. The way he got there may have been unsightly, but for a team so devoid of offensive standouts, it seems counterproductive to trade away one of their few above-average hitters. Regarding his defense, they are also lacking a regular DH, meaning Wallner could fill this role regularly while still getting some time in the outfield. If he returns to his pre-2025 production, Wallner would be one of the best designated hitters in the American League. He’s also still making the league minimum (or some amount close to it) in 2026.

It’s hard to see Wallner as an “off-limits” player this offseason, and if this front office can get what they consider good value in trade for just about any player, they’ve shown they’ll pull the trigger. While this process sounds good in theory, it’s worth questioning whether this regime can be trusted in evaluating talent at this point.

For a Twins offense that largely sank the team in 2025, one could argue that they would be wiser to target another player in a situation like Wallner’s, rather than trade one away. After an .877 OPS in 2023 and .894 in 2024, his big step backward still left him as an above-average hitter. He’s not without red flags or question marks, but some of his struggles in 2025 were complete aberrations in the context of his track record. If he can return to form in 2026, he would be one of the best hitters in a lineup that desperately needs him. The team should be acquiring and holding onto offensive upside, not trading it away.

This Twins front office has a history of being unpredictable, making it a real possibility this winter to trade away yet another productive local Minnesotan. The Twins may be right to consider doing so, but with the team’s lack of recent success both on the field and in evaluating their own roster, it’s hard to have faith in that decision if they decide to ship Wallner out this winter.

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What should the Twins do with Matt Wallner after a down season? Can they keep him and use him as a DH? Should they look to deal him before his declining stock hits zero? Let us know below!

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[Patzky]

As Unclutch as Moose was, he's still capable of production. The first base noise seems pointless; he has no history there and first is the last place for a subpar (Julien!) defender who has a hand in making so many outs. DH seems the likely spot but watch the off-season pickups. 

[chpettit19]

Hopefully get him back to the hitter he was in 2023 and 2024, but for about 150 games.

[mikelink45]

Trade him to the A's where he can pair with Rooker! Or trade him to Toronto where he can reunite with Varland. 

I think he still has real value.  If we have put up with Lee and Lewis and their production we owe Wallner another year. 

 

[Nshore]

Wallner starts with an extremely wide open stance and then kind of dives into the ball.  It seems like a good hitting coach could work with him on some improvement.

[Doctor Gast]

Makes for a lot of LHH cOfers Wallner, Larnach, Kersey, Rodon, Outman, & Mendez. I'd trade the whole bunch for an exceptional one & a promising young MLB-ready catcher, to go along with Emma & Jenkins. But Falvey likes to hoard those players so we are stuck with them.

[Parfigliano]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Makes for a lot of LHH cOfers Wallner, Larnach, Kersey, Rodon, Outman, & Mendez. I'd trade the whole bunch for an exceptional one & a promising young MLB-ready catcher, to go along with Emma & Jenkins. But Falvey likes to hoard those players so we are stuck with them.

Keirsey and Outman must be DFAd.

[Mike Sixel]

55 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Hopefully get him back to the hitter he was in 2023 and 2024, but for about 150 games.

Any team not contending for the WS would love to have him and give him a shot at that. 

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Makes for a lot of LHH cOfers Wallner, Larnach, Kersey, Rodon, Outman, & Mendez. I'd trade the whole bunch for an exceptional one & a promising young MLB-ready catcher, to go along with Emma & Jenkins. But Falvey likes to hoard those players so we are stuck with them.

You can't trade a bunch of nobodies and two real players for better players. That's not how it works. 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Any team not contending for the WS would love to have him and give him a shot at that. 

More fun to complain about him, demand his release, and then get to complain again when he succeeds elsewhere after getting that release because they "gave up on him too early" just like the complainer demanded.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You can't trade a bunch of nobodies and two real players for better players. That's not how it works. 

I was figuratively speaking, to show their low cumulative value for the Twins' needs. Although they all do have some value (LHH cOFers are in demand), there could be some interested in one or maybe 2 by a single team, but of course not all of them. We could trade Wallner or even Rodon to fill some needs. All others are now only basically thrown in. With all these redundant  players, Why does Falvey keep acquiring these mediocre, redundant players? I'll state again that Falvey loves to hoard these players, so trading isn't even an option.

[Blyleven2011]

50 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Any team not contending for the WS would love to have him and give him a shot at that. 

Coors field would love him ...

[PatPfund]

Unless/until he learns how to hit fastballs in the upper third of the zone, Wallner is a fringe major leaguer at best. And it's not like really big players speed up as they age, so he really needs to figure it out very soon if he wants a career. Which is more likely at 1B than OF (big target, not great in the OF; yeah he'd have to learn as many others have in MLB). Doubt there is much market for him; he likely turns it around next year or walks the Miranda Trail back to St Paul.

[Doctor Gast]

8 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Coors field would love him ...

I've been advocating Kepler or Larnach to CO for years.

[ashbury]

I'm ordinarily leery of slicing and dicing data and then taking it very seriously.  Small Sample Size is always lurking.  Still, Wallner's 2025 splits contain something I find at least interesting.

OPS  PA     Game Situation

.708  322   Within 4 runs

1.113    70    > 4 runs

That first line is a very inadequate offensive contribution from a corner outfielder.  70 PA, on the other hand, is a splendid example of a Small Sample.  And yet, what "saves" his season and gives him his seemingly productive .776 overall OPS is exactly during those 70 times when a home run here or there was arguably least likely to affect the game outcome. He was a monster at the plate once the game was more or less decided.

The opposing pitchers have some say in this too, and they obviously pitch every batter differently depending on a variety of factors.  Somehow, Wallner seems to have been more susceptible hitting well only in the cases where the pitcher says, "okay big boy, here it comes, try and hit it, the manager has me in here to eat some innings - I'll be in AAA tomorrow whatever you do."

Which reminds me to look up Joey Gallo's 2023 season, which I have pigeonholed as similar to Wallner's 2025.  Not quite.  With him it was more to do with which team was ahead:

OPS  PA     Game Situation

.598  75    Tie game

.572  120   Behind

.983  137   Ahead

Two very different ways these guys had, to put up overall OPS that seemed better than the situational eye test would have told you.  Already got the lead? Joey was your man that year.

You know the advanced stat that matched up with that eye test for both?  Win Probability Added.  Gallo's WPA in 2023 was -1.2, despite an offensive WAR that was above 1. Wallner's 2025 WPA was -0.5 despite an offensive WAR that was also above 1.  Both players dragged their team down with their negative offense, despite raw numbers that would lead you to think they had contributed positively.  WAR, built on the same components as OPS and more, treats every plate appearance as equal.

Every slugger hits a meaningless dinger now and then - it's the nature of the game - these guys found subtly different ways to maximize those. There's more than one way to suck during a season.

What's a player supposed to do when the game is out of reach or his team is already ahead, not try?  No, I'm not saying that.  And I'm not calling either player a "selfish hitter," whatever that means in baseball, either.  Just this: stats need to be examined carefully if results aren't matching up to what you think you're seeing.  (And it may still turn out you're "seeing" things the wrong way and the aggregate stats are more or less right.)

I don't question Wallner's toughness, mentally or physically - I always fall back on remembering him take an inside pitch on the chin and yet he was back in the lineup a couple days later.  And this situational stuff seems like an area where a new manager or batting coach might be able to help, more than with his mechanics or whatnot - indeed if injury wasn't an issue then perhaps his uniformly lousy September could have been due to trying to correct the situational problem and somehow only making things worse overall.  New personnel in the dugout could represent a fresh start mentally.

Here's hoping Matt turns things around in a way that shows up in wins rather than only the OPS he racks up.

 

[Vanimal46]

What a stupid argument. Wallner was solely responsible for the amount of runners he could bat in? He’s the only legitimate power threat this team has. He’s not going anywhere. And if he does that’s another box to check to fire Falvey immediately. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

If they keep him and he reverts back to form, good. He certainly can both dh and play right. But if they can turn him into a decent young catcher or something else they are looking for, it’d be a good idea to at least listen

[FlyingFinn]

Wallner has to fix his swing to cover the upper part of the strike zone. I'm not giving up on him. Sluggers seem to have holes in their swing. He hasn't been given enough time to fix this hole. We need a balance of sluggers and on base guys. Just because guys like Sano haven't worked out doesn't mean we dump every slugger after a year below expectations.

Mendez will not be added to the 40 man roster this winter. He's not playing any 1B in the AFL and thus is behind so many lh hitting corner OF's plus he doesn't have much power and hasn't played a single game at AAA yet.

[Vanimal46]

Evidently there are a few Wallner haters here. Who else on the current roster has the potential to hit 30 HRs? Power wins out in this league. If the Twins trade him he’ll be the next Brent Rooker 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Evidently there are a few Wallner haters here. Who else on the current roster has the potential to hit 30 HRs? Power wins out in this league. If the Twins trade him he’ll be the next Brent Rooker 

I mean Buxton clearly has that potential, but otherwise I fully agree.

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean Buxton clearly has that potential, but otherwise I fully agree.

Sure agreed with that. We are going to need more than 1 person to hit a baseball into the seats. 

[TNtwins85]

“What will the Minnesota Twins do with Matt Wallner?”

play him at DH and bat him 5-9 and no higher. Never in the OF. That should be the plan. Don’t stray from this plan. 

[Vanimal46]

58 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I'm ordinarily leery of slicing and dicing data and then taking it very seriously.  Small Sample Size is always lurking.  Still, Wallner's 2025 splits contain something I find at least interesting.

OPS  PA     Game Situation

.708  322   Within 4 runs

1.113    70    > 4 runs

That first line is a very inadequate offensive contribution from a corner outfielder.  70 PA, on the other hand, is a splendid example of a Small Sample.  And yet, what "saves" his season and gives him his seemingly productive .776 overall OPS is exactly during those 70 times when a home run here or there was arguably least likely to affect the game outcome. He was a monster at the plate once the game was more or less decided.

The opposing pitchers have some say in this too, and they obviously pitch every batter differently depending on a variety of factors.  Somehow, Wallner seems to have been more susceptible hitting well only in the cases where the pitcher says, "okay big boy, here it comes, try and hit it, the manager has me in here to eat some innings - I'll be in AAA tomorrow whatever you do."

Which reminds me to look up Joey Gallo's 2023 season, which I have pigeonholed as similar to Wallner's 2025.  Not quite.  With him it was more to do with which team was ahead:

OPS  PA     Game Situation

.598  75    Tie game

.572  120   Behind

.983  137   Ahead

Two very different ways these guys had, to put up overall OPS that seemed better than the situational eye test would have told you.  Already got the lead? Joey was your man that year.

You know the advanced stat that matched up with that eye test for both?  Win Probability Added.  Gallo's WPA in 2023 was -1.2, despite an offensive WAR that was above 1. Wallner's 2025 WPA was -0.5 despite an offensive WAR that was also above 1.  Both players dragged their team down with their negative offense, despite raw numbers that would lead you to think they had contributed positively.  WAR, built on the same components as OPS and more, treats every plate appearance as equal.

Every slugger hits a meaningless dinger now and then - it's the nature of the game - these guys found subtly different ways to maximize those. There's more than one way to suck during a season.

What's a player supposed to do when the game is out of reach or his team is already ahead, not try?  No, I'm not saying that.  And I'm not calling either player a "selfish hitter," whatever that means in baseball, either.  Just this: stats need to be examined carefully if results aren't matching up to what you think you're seeing.  (And it may still turn out you're "seeing" things the wrong way and the aggregate stats are more or less right.)

I don't question Wallner's toughness, mentally or physically - I always fall back on remembering him take an inside pitch on the chin and yet he was back in the lineup a couple days later.  And this situational stuff seems like an area where a new manager or batting coach might be able to help, more than with his mechanics or whatnot - indeed if injury wasn't an issue then perhaps his uniformly lousy September could have been due to trying to correct the situational problem and somehow only making things worse overall.  New personnel in the dugout could represent a fresh start mentally.

Here's hoping Matt turns things around in a way that shows up in wins rather than only the OPS he racks up.

 

Matt Wallner costs the league minimum next year. Is he worth that? Look, you bring up good points about how he can and should improve, but what are we talking about? Power bats costs $$$$ in Yelp restaurant terms. 

[chpettit19]

Just now, Vanimal46 said:

Sure agreed with that. We are going to need more than 1 person to hit a baseball into the seats. 

Blasphemy! Play the game the right way! Bunt. Steal bases. Championships will roll in! <- Heavy sarcasm.

2023 Wallner hit .249 with power. 2024 Wallner hit .259 with power. Dropping him because of a bad year and not giving him the chance to bounce back is absolute insanity and we'd have the exact same posters on these boards complaining for years about "giving up on him too early" when he is putting up .850+ OPS numbers for somebody else. If he hits .200 again next year, that's when you start talking about what his future here looks like. Especially if one of the other lefties actually prove to be worthy of an MLB spot.

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Blasphemy! Play the game the right way! Bunt. Steal bases. Championships will roll in! <- Heavy sarcasm.

2023 Wallner hit .249 with power. 2024 Wallner hit .259 with power. Dropping him because of a bad year and not giving him the chance to bounce back is absolute insanity and we'd have the exact same posters on these boards complaining for years about "giving up on him too early" when he is putting up .850+ OPS numbers for somebody else. If he hits .200 again next year, that's when you start talking about what his future here looks like. Especially if one of the other lefties actually prove to be worthy of an MLB spot.

You get it. Talking about what to do with him when he’s barely 1 year into his MLB service time is absurd. 

[AceWrigley]

9 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sure agreed with that. We are going to need more than 1 person to hit a baseball into the seats. 

Yes, but it would be nice if he hit them when the game was still in the balance.

[Parfigliano]

Wallner makes league minimum and has legitimate ( hopefully with guys on base this year) 30+ HR potential. 

He isn't going anywhere.

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, AceWrigley said:

Yes, but it would be nice if he hit them when the game was still in the balance.

Well that’s probably not going to happen much in 2026. We’re on our way to another 90+ loss season thanks to a crap bullpen. 

[Vanimal46]

@RpRjust gonna get out ahead of this. No one has said he should play defense which is your specialty. There’s this special position in MLB called the designated hitter, which the Twins do not have anyone in mind to put in that crazy spot. Perhaps that is Matt Wallner. 

[Parfigliano]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Well that’s probably not going to happen much in 2026. We’re on our way to another 90+ loss season thanks to a crap bullpen. 

Last years popular opinion projected TC to have a top bullpen.  We all know they definitely did not. 

This years consensus opinion seems to be for a bullpen that sucks on toast.  Maybe they can buck popular opinion again.