Twins 4, Yankees 1: Snarling and Hurling

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan - 6 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HR (102 pitches, 63 strikes)
Home Runs: N/A
Top 3 WPA: Ryan (.220), Byron Buxton (.171), Kody Clemens (.128)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

Neither rain (a storm that delayed the game by almost two hours, with the Twins needing to get to the airport after the game to come home to Minnesota) nor heat (a trade deadline fire sale still hanging over the team) nor gloom of the future (the news, Wednesday morning, that the Pohlad family will remain in control of the Twins for the foreseeable) stays Joe Ryan from his appointed rotation spot. He took the mound in a damp and half-filled but constantly noisy Yankee Stadium on getaway night, and pitched like a man possessed.

Hot Schlittler and the Ryan Express
This game was the Twins' first chance to see Yankees rookie starter Cam Schlittler, and it did not start out as a fun learning experience. Firing a lively fastball that averaged 98 miles per hour and had some wiggle and adding two different breaking balls for good measure, Schlittle looked like a budding ace through the first three innings. He didn't allow a Twins baserunner that first time through the order. The top of the order couldn't get the ball out of the infield against him, and he racked up three strikeouts over the second and third innings.

Worked into just as impressive a lather by the time he spent waiting out the rain, though, Ryan was just as nasty. His stuff all had more velocity than usual, including his heater sitting 95 and nearly touching 98. The pitch also had good run, and though he didn't have great feel for anything else on the night, he scarcely needed it. Cody Bellinger connected for a long home run right down the right-field line, but otherwise, Ryan matched Schlittler through the early innings—then beat him in the middle frames.

Good Adjustments
As good as Schlittler looked the first time through the lineup, the Twins made an impressive round of adjustments and went into grind mode the second time they got to see him. Trevor Larnach led the top of the fourth with a seven-pitch walk that required him to foul off two high, hard, outer-third fastballs meant to put him away. Byron Buxton then worked an even longer at-bat, slamming a double to left at 114 miles per hour on the 10th pitch and wheeling Larnach around to third. Luke Keaschall, batting right behind Buxton in this one, then cashed in the chance by going up there swinging. He grounded out for the second time in the game, but this one brought home Larnach to knot the score at 1-1. Schlittler buckled down and escaped the jam without allowing Buxton to come home, but the tone had changed.

Ryan, on the other hand, only got stronger as the game progressed. He struck out the side in order in the bottom of the fourth, and that lively heater got three quick fly balls for outs in the fifth. Along the way, Ryan became more and more animalistic, more obviously than ever under the pale glare of the Yankee Stadium lights and with the infamously hot field mics lighting up over and over with his grunts and shouts on any pitch he didn't execute perfectly or that he felt should have been called a strike. Ryan's temperament on the mound is part of how he succeeds, but it also makes him a great showman. You can't turn away. He worked his gum mercilessly, screamed expletives a dozen times or more, and got into the habit of freezing to await called strikes he wasn't getting. He also, relentlessly, got outs.

The Twins broke through in a bigger way in the top of the sixth. With Schlittler out of the game, Buxton hit a Yerry De Los Santos offering blisteringly hard toward the hole at shortstop. Anthony Volpe managed to snare the ball, but first baseman Ben Rice couldn't handle his throw, and Buxton was aboard. Keaschall played a variation on that theme, with a hard-hit ground ball that hugged the third base line. Ryan McMahon would have had to make a perfect play and an exceptionally strong, off-balance throw all the way across the diamond to get an out against the speedy Buxton or Keaschall. He didn't even complete the first part of that mission.

That brought up Clemens, and it felt crucial that he get the runs home. Minnesota hadn't made much of that rally in the fourth, and had left Alan Roden on second after a stolen base in the fifth. De Los Santos hammered away at the bottom rail of the strike zone, but Clemens worked the count full and fouled off a good fastball at the knees on the outer edge. Finally, De Los Santos cracked and left a pitch up, and Clemens sent it leaning and bounding into the gap in right-center field. Buxton and Keaschall scored, and when Trent Grisham mishandled the ball, Clemens made it all the way to third base. 

There was still no one out, and Clemens was just 90 feet away, but after two quick and unproductive outs, the Twins were in danger of not maximizing their chance yet again. Royce Lewis took care of business, though, lobbing a fly ball down the left-field line against a Mark Leiter Jr. slow curve. Cody Bellinger had the speed and the room to make the play, but he wasn't sure enough of his position and pulled up slightly, worried about the sidewall. The ball fell in, and Clemens became the fourth run of the game for the Twins.

Shutting the Door
Ryan only seemed more agitated than ever when he retook the mound for the bottom of the sixth, working with a three-run lead. He evinced frustration with the high bottom of the zone against Aaron Judge and never let it go, but he didn't allow the Yankees to do any damage. He ended up getting two outs in the seventh inning, too, and stretching past 100 pitches, trying to act as his own bullpen in the absence of the one the team traded away last month. As it turned out, though, that pen had his back, anyway. Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa slammed the door on New York, amid the obnoxiously loud Yankee Stadium sound system but relatively little noise from the early-departing Bronx crowd.

This was a great team win. The long at-bats and great payoffs from Larnach, Buxton and Clemens showed the approach the team needs to establish as a standard throughout the batting order. The disruptive combination of exit velocity and foot speed created the game-winning rally, as Buxton and Keaschall continue to look like the spine of the team's future. Ryan was excellent, even on a night when (other than in terms of fastball velocity) his stuff wasn't. It's too little and too late, but it was the kind of game the team must use as a blueprint as they plan their future success.

What’s Next?
Bleary-eyed, the Twins will roll out of bed for a 6:40 PM CT game back at Target Field Thursday night against the Tigers. The combination of the Yankees (in typical fashion) scheduling a night game ahead of their visitors' travel and the rain delay will mean they don't get into Minneapolis until the wee hours of the morning. Luckily, they only have to face—oh. Oh no. Tarik Skubal (11-3, 2.35 ERA) starts for Detroit, opposite Bailey Ober (4-7, 5.16 ERA) for the home nine.

Postgame Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Hatch	0	0	0	0	99	0	99
Tonkin	0	18	38	0	0	0	56
Kriske	17	0	17	19	0	0	53
Ramírez	0	21	0	23	0	0	44
Adams	43	0	0	0	0	0	43
Ohl	0	0	36	0	0	0	36
Topa	0	15	20	0	0	26	61
Sands	9	0	9	0	16	0	34
Funderburk	0	0	9	0	13	6	28

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[Aggies7]

Terrible day for the franchise, but a great win against the Yankees. I will take a win over them every single time.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Well, 6 - 6 since the blow-up.  Bring on the Tigers, I guess.

[mnfireman]

Not gonna lie, thought the Bellinger HR was game the way its been going lately. Loved that the team rallied and won.

[Parfigliano]

Time to take Skubal down a couple notches 

[AlLagoon]

JMFR

[Nashvilletwin]

Ryan is going to return an absolute HAUL this off-season. 

[stringer bell]

Credit where credit is due—Funderburk and Topa have stepped up since the bullpen selloff.

I’ve noticed that Topa’s velo is up recently, and with the funky delivery, he’s got a pretty good chance to be effective.

Fundy needs to throw strikes and he’ll be fine. 

[thelanges5]

#extendjoeryan

[Nshore]

Ryan is one of the few rays of light for the fans in the darkness that this franchise has become.  That's why he must be traded far, far away.  The light MUST be extinguished.

[Peter]

Stop with the nonsense of getting rid of Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez!!!! They aren’t going anywhere!!! Twins will be just fine as there’s 2 new groups that will help push team over hump and win another championship!!! Great win last night-tough series with Detroit but after that it’s A’s and white Sox with chance to get over and stay over .500!!!

[mickster]

6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Ryan is going to return an absolute HAUL this off-season. 

He would yes, but would be better locked up to a 5 year deal and build around

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Peter said:

Stop with the nonsense of getting rid of Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez!!!! They aren’t going anywhere!!! Twins will be just fine as there’s 2 new groups that will help push team over hump and win another championship!!! Great win last night-tough series with Detroit but after that it’s A’s and white Sox with chance to get over and stay over .500!!!

Listen, I hope you're right. But why on earth should any Twins fan trust that the Pohlads won't stick the knife in us? Ryan is exactly the kind of player the team should be extending and making the foundation of their pitching staff, so I expect he'll get dealt for prospects as the world's most tone-deaf ownership tries to sell us that we should be happy about it.

A really nice win. I hate the Yankees. I still hate them more than the Pohlads, but the gap has closed significantly.

Buxton is having an excellent season. So fun to watch. Glad he's got a no trade, because they would have sold him and his very reasonable contract off too.

[mikelink45]

I know most of you hate WINS, but Joe is 12 - 5 a team that is 57 - 63.  Wins do matter and they reflect his quality.  It means pitching at least 5 innings, taking the mound regularly and not letting the other team dictate the game.  I love it.   He is number three in wins behind Crochet and Peralta!  Tied with  Rodon, Pfaat, and Pivetta.  Keep going Joe!

[shimrod]

24 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I hate the Yankees. I still hate them more than the Pohlads, but the gap has closed significantly.

Made me laugh

[Jeff K]

28 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Listen, I hope you're right. But why on earth should any Twins fan trust that the Pohlads won't stick the knife in us? Ryan is exactly the kind of player the team should be extending and making the foundation of their pitching staff, so I expect he'll get dealt for prospects as the world's most tone-deaf ownership tries to sell us that we should be happy about it.

A really nice win. I hate the Yankees. I still hate them more than the Pohlads, but the gap has closed significantly.

Buxton is having an excellent season. So fun to watch. Glad he's got a no trade, because they would have sold him and his very reasonable contract off too.

I hope like heck the Twins don't trade Ryan.  I have little hope for Lopez as the Twins actually have to pay him.  

[Whitey333]

Nice game Twins.  Winning 1 of 3 against the Yankees is par for the course.  Ryan keeps showingthat he should be extended and not traded.  

[Ole St Carleton]

Biggest reasons for this win: no Gasper, no Julien in the lineup. 

[DJL44]

Loved watching Keaschall hit the ball to the right side of the infield to bring the runner in from 3B. That situational hitting has been rare this season.

[hitterscount]

As  has been stated by many great baseball minds on this site.... the team was several position players and a manager like Pat Murphy,  away from WS contention. 

In half seriousness, why would you even entertain trading Ryan and Lopez. When you have quality starting pitchers and a strong BP you should be in every game, as long as you have speed , can play defense and make contact. The team has control on both players for two years. No way I trade them, I build around them.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I know most of you hate WINS, but Joe is 12 - 5 a team that is 57 - 63.  Wins do matter and they reflect his quality.  It means pitching at least 5 innings, taking the mound regularly and not letting the other team dictate the game.  I love it.   He is number three in wins behind Crochet and Peralta!  Tied with  Rodon, Pfaat, and Pivetta.  Keep going Joe!

wins are not the stat they once were, however what if Joe stays hot and gets to say 16-5 with a sub 2.9 ERA.   Does he get serious attention for Cy Young?

[Otaknam]

2 hours ago, Peter said:

Stop with the nonsense of getting rid of Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez!!!! They aren’t going anywhere!!! Twins will be just fine as there’s 2 new groups that will help push team over hump and win another championship!!! Great win last night-tough series with Detroit but after that it’s A’s and white Sox with chance to get over and stay over .500!!!

I hope you are right, but it would not surprise if either or both Ryan and Lopez are traded this offseason, and the team completes its rebuild by also dealing Buxton if he approves. The Twins DO have the potential for a solid and possibly strong starting pitching rotation next year, with a lot of young arms depth. But their success depends on Larnach, Wallner, and Lewis to get better. And for the youth movement to come through with Keaschall, Jenkins, EROD, Culpepper, and the starters they received by trade.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I know most of you hate WINS, but Joe is 12 - 5 a team that is 57 - 63.  Wins do matter and they reflect his quality.  It means pitching at least 5 innings, taking the mound regularly and not letting the other team dictate the game.  I love it.   He is number three in wins behind Crochet and Peralta!  Tied with  Rodon, Pfaat, and Pivetta.  Keep going Joe!

It's not that we hate wins, it's just the pitcher wins as a stat don't really tell you all that much about how good they are. I'm perfectly happy to have Joe Ryan rack up win after win, it's just not how I'm going to evaluate his individual season. I'm much more interested in his ERA, his xFIP, his WHIP, his HR/9, etc to compare how dominant he's been in relation to the rest of the league and how successful he's been as an individual.

[Nashvilletwin]

52 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

As  has been stated by many great baseball minds on this site.... the team was several position players and a manager like Pat Murphy,  away from WS contention. 

In half seriousness, why would you even entertain trading Ryan and Lopez. When you have quality starting pitchers and a strong BP you should be in every game, as long as you have speed , can play defense and make contact. The team has control on both players for two years. No way I trade them, I build around them.

I love Ryan and Lopez as much as the next guy.  They are both legit #1s and fun to cheer for as well.  It would be great if we built around them.

But that’s not the reality.  Why?

1. They simply are going to cost too much money.  This team is in cash preservation mode. Period.

2. We have control for two more years. But in all likelihood there is not going to be much baseball, in any, played in the second of those two years.  There is absolutely no chance we have the financial resources to resign either of them in 2028.  Zero. So our control - and expected service - is really only one year 

3. We will get a king’s ransom for each of them this offseason - probably more than we could’ve got this past trade deadline.   Those players will be instrumental in building an exciting young new core of cheap, controllable players for a 2028-2030 run - which is the business model the Twins are now (forcibly) pursuing.

4. A new CBA coupled with a lower controllable payroll and an exciting group of emerging talents is EXACTLY the situation the Pohlads are trying to create over the next two/three years in order to effect a sale at a higher price.

Sorry, but Ryan and Lopez will be moved during the offseason. Sad, but in all likelihood, it’s the way things will be. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Ryan is exactly the kind of player the team should be extending and making the foundation of their pitching staff,

Honest question, is extending a starting pitcher who you have control until almost age 32 (at the end of 2027 he is 31, turns 32 on June 5th in 2028) the smartest move by a "Mid" market team?  And what would that cost the Twins to buyout his first real chance a money?  Pablo got 4/73 and will be a FA again at the same age Ryan is the first time. I honestly don't see how the math works out for either of them. (I would think the twins would want something like Pablo in terms of years, and Ryan will want something closer to Burnes in terms of years and money)

When you bring up pitchers at age 24-26, you hope they turn out like Ryan/Jax/Duran and trade them for big packages (When and what year you do this could be up for debate) and never really pay them and let somebody else pay for the wrong side of age 30 contracts, or Sands, Varland, Ober types where they end up legit major league pitchers and hope to spin them for something prior to being free agents, or they just crap the bed and you move on (Winder, Balazovic. Enlow)

SWR is the age of a pitcher you may try buying out a year or two. Other than Keaschall NOBODY and I mean NOBODY on the Twins roster should be considered for an extension. 

[karcherd]

The problem with trading Ryan and/or Lopez is the person responsible for making the trade.  I don't want to see them traded.  But I am afraid it will happen but to me trusting Falvey to get a good return is an exercise in futility.  He will get players with a "tweak here and there" they might become a contributor.  If we trade them we have to get proven major league players back and top prospects ready to break through and I don't see that happening with Falvey in charge.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I love Ryan and Lopez as much as the next guy.  They are both legit #1s and fun to cheer for as well.  It would be great if we built around them.

But that’s not the reality.  Why?

1. They simply are going to cost too much money.  This team is in cash preservation mode. Period.

2. We have control for two more years. But in all likelihood there is not going to be much baseball, in any, played in the second of those two years.  There is absolutely no chance we have the financial resources to resign either of them in 2028.  Zero. So our control - and expected service - is really only one year 

3. We will get a king’s ransom for each of them this offseason - probably more than we could’ve got this past trade deadline.   Those players will be instrumental in building an exciting young new core of cheap, controllable players for a 2028-2030 run - which is the business model the Twins are now (forcibly) pursuing.

4. A new CBA coupled with a lower controllable payroll and an exciting group of emerging talents is EXACTLY the situation the Pohlads are trying to create over the next two/three years in order to effect a sale at a higher price.

Sorry, but Ryan and Lopez will be moved during the offseason. Sad, but in all likelihood, it’s the way things will be. 

2 and 3 are in direct conflict with each other. If they aren't worth anything to the Twins due to a lost 2027 season, then they aren't worth anything to any other teams for the same reason.

I don't agree with #1. Joe Ryan is cheap and Pablo Lopez is getting paid way below market rate. If the Twins can't afford these guys then they will NEVER be able to build a contender. You can't contend with 26 players with less than 3 years experience on pre-arbitration salaries.

[Nashvilletwin]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

2 and 3 are in direct conflict with each other. If they aren't worth anything to the Twins due to a lost 2027 season, then they aren't worth anything to any other teams for the same reason.

I don't agree with #1. Joe Ryan is cheap and Pablo Lopez is getting paid way below market rate. If the Twins can't afford these guys then they will NEVER be able to build a contender. You can't contend with 26 players with less than 3 years experience on pre-arbitration salaries.

Nope, you’re wrong.  There will be a host of team willing to go all in to win in 2026 and still have first crack at long term control over both players post 2027.   The market will be robust for both of them. 

[Peter]

For the last time!!! Lopez and Ryan will NOT be traded!!!! Not happening!!!

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Nope, you’re wrong.  There will be a host of team willing to go all in to win in 2026 and still have first crack at long term control over both players post 2027.   The market will be robust for both of them. 

Robust, but the return will be for a 1-season, expiring contract pitcher.