Twins Must Attempt to Follow Guardians' and Rays' Blueprints at MLB Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

It’s no secret that the Twins have long eyed the blueprints of front-office success from the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays. These clubs have delivered consistent regular-season excellence, carving out niches through shrewd trades, player development, and long-term sustainability. But when it comes to the MLB trade deadline, a pressure cooker of instant decisions and bold risk-taking, the Twins have largely hesitated, despite organizational ties to two of the sport’s savviest operators.

Derek Falvey arrived in Minnesota from the Guardians' front office, a system known for maximizing pitching and churning the roster efficiently. Manager Rocco Baldelli came from the Rays, where roster manipulation and deadline boldness are basically a front-office tradition. On paper, this pairing should have created a modern, nimble, and opportunistic Twins regime. But recent deadline inactivity has left fans wondering: where’s the boldness?

To find inspiration, the Twins don’t need to look far. The Guardians and Rays have shown it’s possible to improve the future while still chasing a division crown in the present.

Cleveland’s Deadline Calculus
In 2023, Cleveland executed one of the most talked-about moves of the deadline by sending starting pitcher Aaron Civale to the Rays for first base prospect Kyle Manzardo. Civale was a solid mid-rotation arm under team control through 2025, but the Guardians, recognizing they had young arms ready to step in, sold high and grabbed a top-50 prospect.

The same week, they moved Josh Bell and Amed Rosario while bringing in prospects like Jean Segura and Kahil Watson. These weren’t win-now deals, but they didn’t tank the season either. They were Cleveland’s version of asset optimization, realigning for 2024 and beyond without punting the present.

Fast forward to 2024, the Guardians were 23 games above .500 at the trade deadline. Still, Cleveland only added outfielder Lane Thomas and starting pitcher Alex Cobb. If there was a season to bet the farm, it would have been the 2024 campaign for Cleveland but they made minimal moves to keep their winning window open. 

The Rays’ Neverending Shuffle
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has made a science out of buying and selling simultaneously. In 2023, they acquired Civale, filling a rotation need without sacrificing MLB-ready talent. That same year, they made minor deals to acquire C Alex Jackson from the Brewers for RHP Evan McKendry and added righties Manuel Rodriguez and Adrian Sampson from the Cubs. Tampa isn’t swinging blockbuster bats but they’re constantly adjusting.

At the 2024 trade deadline, the Rays were above .500 but in fourth place in the AL East. Seeing the writing on the wall, the front office rebuilt their farm system by trading away multiple players. Not quite a year after their need to reinforce their injury-depleted rotation led them to acquire Civale from Cleveland, the Rays sent Civale to the Brewers for shortstop prospect Gregory Barrios. They also traded away Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Amed Rosario , Phil Maton, Zach Eflin, and Jason Adam.

It’s this constant churn that keeps the Rays competitive without ever fully cashing in or cashing out. It’s a strategy built on confidence in their development system and an understanding that the deadline is not just about stars, but about control and upside.

Will Minnesota Follow Suit?
Now, the Twins find themselves in a similar situation. They’re not out of the race, but they’re not juggernauts either. The 2025 team has flaws: the lineup can go cold, the bullpen has been taxed, and starting depth is always fragile. And yet, the front office did little in 2024 and even less in 2023 when needs were equally pressing.

This year, there’s chatter about dealing Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, or even expiring contracts like Willi Castro or Harrison Bader. But rather than signal a full teardown, these moves could be the Twins’ chance to emulate Cleveland and Tampa Bay: sell from positions of strength while retooling for 2026 and beyond.

Would they move Duran for a near-MLB-ready bat or a controllable starting pitcher? Could they flip Danny Coulombe for a high-upside prospect? The Guardians and Rays have shown it’s not just possible because it’s essential to their roster model.

The other key? Trusting player development. Tampa and Cleveland make moves knowing their farm can backfill. If the Twins want to join that tier, they’ll need to show the same confidence in their depth.

The 2025 Trade Deadline Litmus Test
The next few weeks offer a referendum on the Twins' front office philosophy. Falvey and Baldelli were brought in, in part, to replicate the disciplined, creative front-office strategies they saw succeed in Cleveland and Tampa Bay. But while the Guardians and Rays stay active and flexible, Minnesota’s recent deadlines have looked more like a waiting game.

It’s easy to say you follow the Cleveland model. It’s harder to trade a solid big-leaguer for a prospect when your team is in playoff contention. But if the Twins want to act like the Rays and Guardians, now is the time to prove it, not with words, but with action.

Will Minnesota toe the line, reshaping their roster for today and tomorrow? Or will they once again stand still while others pass them by?

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What would you do at the deadline: buy, sell, or both? Share your trade ideas or frustrations with the front office below.

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[mikelink45]

I will be surprised.  We seem to hesitate at each opportunity and hesitation means others make moves while we stagnate.  Let's hope they surprise me. 

[dxpavelka]

Interesting that one of your examples is Cleveland being 23 games over .500 and in a position to bet the farm and not doing so.  Isn't that EXACTLY what Twins rubes hate?

[mluebker]

It’s pretty clear they’re not a championship team, so the real question is who, if anyone, are they willing to deal to maybe make the playoffs. I’m hoping the answer is, “Not much,” and that the next big deal we see is a new owner who wants to win.

 

[dxpavelka]

1 minute ago, mluebker said:

It’s pretty clear they’re not a championship team, so the real question is who, if anyone, are they willing to deal to maybe make the playoffs. I’m hoping the answer is, “Not much,” and that the next big deal we see is a new owner who wants to win.

 

LOVE the whole "the new owners will want to win" bit.  Good comedy.

[Sjoski]

Minnesota isn’t failing to follow the Cleveland/Tampa model because they won’t, it’s because they can’t.

Those teams trade from strength and develop surplus. The Twins don’t have the same luxury. 

 

 

.

[Sjoski]

14 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

LOVE the whole "the new owners will want to win" bit.  Good comedy.

"Hoping" was a key word you didn't include in your quotation copy. 

DXP is "hoping" the next big deal is, that in contrast to the current ownership,  the new owners will want to win. 

My hope is  the new owners know how to win. 

 

[chpettit19]

As of today, I would be incredibly surprised if there's more than a Trevor Richards type buy move or any kind of real sell move. I think they truly believe in this team being talented enough to win some playoff games and they won't give up that hope unless things fall apart over the next couple weeks. And even then I doubt they do major selling as they will put huge price tags on everyone and nobody will pay what they ask.

I fully expect another very boring trade deadline. As of today. Things can change over the next couple weeks. But right now it sure doesn't feel like they'll make any real moves one way or the other.

[arby58]

24 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Interesting that one of your examples is Cleveland being 23 games over .500 and in a position to bet the farm and not doing so.  Isn't that EXACTLY what Twins rubes hate?

That litmus test hasn't existed for the Twins in recent memory (being 23 games over .500 near the trading deadline). You'd have to go back to 2019 for that.

[shimrod]

The key is development. Twins don't do that. Waiver wire pickups from other organizations outplay our call-ups. The constant injury issues don't help.

 

[tony&rodney]

There is chasm between our ideas and suggestions, many of them ridiculed by those who prefer the status quo, and the viewpoint of the front office. I expect nothing to happen because the current roster has the full confidence of its architect.

Ownership gets referred to often in these discussions, which is mildly confusing. Unless one really believes that new ownership means signing Pete Alonso (he wants to stay in NYC) and/or Kyle Tucker, I don't see ownership as part of roster composition or any of these conversations. Owners are rarely involved or even familiar with all of the players within an organization. The front office exists to build the roster. Calvin Griffith was the owner (part at least) and the front office. He even went to an occasional high school and college game. He was familiar with every last player in the organization. Players went to his office to negotiate their salaries. That was a very long time ago. Today, Falvey and others make the decisions. All the Pohlads do is set the budget.

Falvey has stated his belief in this team and so it goes. chpettit19 stated it earlier and I agree - expect nothing. We can discuss ideas but don't expect change, which should also mean don't get upset with any thoughts or comments because these are just exercise.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I will be surprised.  We seem to hesitate at each opportunity and hesitation means others make moves while we stagnate.  Let's hope they surprise me. 

Who really knows what the FO will do , so it's a surprise if they do and it's a surprise if they don't ...

I'm really tired of hearing that our FO follows the Tampa and Cleveland blue print  ...

I like leaders , not followers , to be a leader you have to be creative and initiate your own procedures to out smart your opponent to be winners ...

Our FO lacks the skills to be a leader , got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them and they haven't shown me any of that in their tenure  ...

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There is chasm between our ideas and suggestions, many of them ridiculed by those who prefer the status quo, and the viewpoint of the front office. I expect nothing to happen because the current roster has the full confidence of its architect.

Ownership gets referred to often in these discussions, which is mildly confusing. Unless one really believes that new ownership means signing Pete Alonso (he wants to stay in NYC) and/or Kyle Tucker, I don't see ownership as part of roster composition or any of these conversations. Owners are rarely involved or even familiar with all of the players within an organization. The front office exists to build the roster. Calvin Griffith was the owner (part at least) and the front office. He even went to an occasional high school and college game. He was familiar with every last player in the organization. Players went to his office to negotiate their salaries. That was a very long time ago. Today, Falvey and others make the decisions. All the Pohlads do is set the budget.

Falvey has stated his belief in this team and so it goes. chpettit19 stated it earlier and I agree - expect nothing. We can discuss ideas but don't expect change, which should also mean don't get upset with any thoughts or comments because these are just exercise.

Oooohhhhh, Kyle Tucker would be great. Let's get him.

[Doctor Gast]

 Falvey & Baldelli have copied CLE & TB in how they handled their pitching. But everything else, regretfully, they have copied NYY. Ideally, if they had copied the FO of their mother club, they'd have better-developed overall players to trade & to substitute those who are substituted.

But I agree that MN should change who they copy themselves after & be more like their mother clubs. Their mother clubs would make small trades to fill their needs, no matter where they are in the season.   I agree our rotation is fragile, so when Lopez went down, why didn't the Twins trade for Aaron Civale or obtain Kyle Gibson to fill that void? & stop that June swoon by shoring up our rotation. We could have turned around & made a profit by trading them at the deadline if they weren't needed. The trade deadline can be profitable if you are selling. Can we trade a Duran at the deadline & or some expiring contracts & still compete? IMO, we can if we can locate our real needs & fill them. IMO, if we trade Duran, hopefully Raya & Prielipp can step up in the MLB BP.

Should the Twins sell at the deadline? IMO, no & I don't think we will because Falvey isn't good at it. Unless a creative sweetheart deal is dropped in his lap, that includes a young & promising MLB-ready catcher who will help us now & in the future, regretfully, we should stand pat.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

23 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There is chasm between our ideas and suggestions, many of them ridiculed by those who prefer the status quo, and the viewpoint of the front office. I expect nothing to happen because the current roster has the full confidence of its architect.

Ownership gets referred to often in these discussions, which is mildly confusing. Unless one really believes that new ownership means signing Pete Alonso (he wants to stay in NYC) and/or Kyle Tucker, I don't see ownership as part of roster composition or any of these conversations. Owners are rarely involved or even familiar with all of the players within an organization. The front office exists to build the roster. Calvin Griffith was the owner (part at least) and the front office. He even went to an occasional high school and college game. He was familiar with every last player in the organization. Players went to his office to negotiate their salaries. That was a very long time ago. Today, Falvey and others make the decisions. All the Pohlads do is set the budget.

Falvey has stated his belief in this team and so it goes. chpettit19 stated it earlier and I agree - expect nothing. We can discuss ideas but don't expect change, which should also mean don't get upset with any thoughts or comments because these are just exercise.

I think that ownership's setting the budget is rather big deal.  Also, we have heard over the years that any move impacting the budget significantly must be approved by ownership.  Which in my mind makes very accountable to the success of the team.

[SF Twins Fan]

Here is Falvey speaking recently to Jon Heyman.  It does seem like he's open to trading any and all players if the right offer is made.

[terrydactyls]

How in the world are the Twins a "mother club"?  Aren't the Twins the "mother club" for all their minor league teams?

[Eris]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Ideally, if they had copied the FO of their mother club, they'd have better-developed overall players to trade

I agree with your assessment. What do you think is lacking. Is this about talent evaluation. Is there an issue with player development. My perception is that Tampa and Cleveland make very few poor trades and almost always seem to sell high on the players that are traded. The one exception might be the Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz trade. 

[Dman]

I think this whole process is a decision tree and depends on what your "goals" are.  Is your goal just to make the playoffs?  Is it to make your team competitive enough to go far into the postseason?  Will the trades you make selling at the deadline make enough of a difference for the future of the team or not move the needle?  I think you have to figure that out to understand how this FO wants to operate.

Given what they have done in the past and what many posters on here remind me going back to the 87 Twins just get into the playoffs and anything can happen once you are in. While that's a fine theory with some proof behind it there is a lot of evidence that shows you need to have a really solid team and a little luck to do well in the playoffs. 

The Twins made it to the playoffs quite a bit in the 2000's, but had the longest playoff losing record in the sport and I think sports history.  Just getting there hasn't been enough for quite a while. Sure there is always the hope that everything clicks for your team and nothing does for the other team.  You can say they were a pitch away, a hit away an inning away from changing things, but you have to have a deep lineup, playoff caliber starters and these days at least three elite pen arms. to do some damage.  It takes a solid all around team to win in the playoffs.

Given how they operate it seems to me that Tampa, Oakland and Cleveland appear to be looking at more than just making the playoffs. They are trying  to construct their teams to win in the playoffs.  They also are trying to do it on a shoe string budget.  To do it I think you have to create a large core group\wave of players that would come up together around the same time. They aren't all going to work out and you might have redundant players and holes to fill.  With small budgets you have to trade for what you need when you decide you need it.  To make it all work you have to take big risks on prospect talent and then big trades to fill holes.

And that is where things get tough for me as the Twins don't seem to be particularly adept at trading.  They have some wins like Joe Ryan, but honestly a fair number of losers.  It kind of feels like this FO is once bitten twice shy after going big with the Lopez and Mahle deals.  I just don't think they are saavy enough to pull deals like that off. Also I do think this FO is just fine making the playoffs and that is success for them and for a lot of us. With that goal in mind I don't see them selling at the deadline.

[Woof Bronzer]

The Twins have "long eyed" the Guardians and Rays because they are cheap, not because they are successful winning organizations.  Modeling your team on 2 franchises that have combined for 0 World Series in 75 years is just such a loser mentality.  

The model for the Twins, if they can't come up with intelligent strategies of their own that fit with this market, should be the Cardinals.  

[Maybe Next Year]

Why bother trading for prospects. We won't call them up anyway. All we do is pick up washed up  retreads that have been released from other teams.

[jorgenswest]

I think the key here is the two years additional service time. How often have the Guardians been on the fringe of the playoffs and traded a player with two additional years of service time? Is the sweet spot for return vs control remaining one extra year? Ryan Jeffers is in that sweet spot.

Conversation about Ryan, Duran and Jax seem a year premature.

[BillyBallLives]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Falvey has stated his belief in this team and so it goes. chpettit19 stated it earlier and I agree - expect nothing. We can discuss ideas but don't expect change, which should also mean don't get upset with any thoughts or comments because these are just exercise.

Or, you could put it this way:

Falvey believes in the roster like a 6 year old kid believes in Santa Claus, even when he doesn't get what he wants for Christmas. 

[LambchoP]

I'm betting on another boring deadline with maybe one waiver wire deal. They will cite "returning talent" like Lopez and Keaschal as the reason for not needing to add to the team. I wish they'd at least trade off expiring contracts and try to load up for next season.

[AKTwinsFan]

I say extend Ryan, look to maybe deal Columbe. Duran and Jax are too valuable to the success of Minnesota for a post season run. With Detroit losing their last 4 games of the season we can start off the second half with another 10+ winning streak. Things could get interesting if Matthew's and Lopez return soon. Gabriel Gonzalez might be a trade piece for any acquisitions. 

[Trov]

I have long said for small to mid-market teams this is the best way to stay relevant for years.  Will you ever be "favored" to win? No.  However, you will continue to be relevant and can make some moves if needed to get into the playoffs hopefully and get on a hot streak.

If you constantly make win now moves you deplete your farm system, which is used to not only fill your own needs, but to be used to fill needs through trade.  When the system is bare you run out of trades.  Moving guys at peak value, assuming you have someone that can fill in, maybe not as good, but with not much regression helps keep that. 

I could see some moves of pen guys with control years for the right returns, or starting pitching.  The question is not if the player is good, but how much better are they than their replacement you have, and what kind of return can you get.  

In terms of position players, Castro would be one of the guys to sell on, but being he is FA after this year his return will be less.  Larnach or Wallner are both guys you can trade but neither are lighting the world on fire, and Wallner has several years of control.  Both play a position that is easy to fill so they have less trade value as well.  France is not just worth much and teams will not give up anything for him. The Vasquez could fetch something, if the Twins ate the money, if not most teams would not give up much. Jeffers has value, but who do we have to replace him, nothing really, so unless there is another trade to fill that hole it leaves us behind for next several years.  Clemons you could maybe get a lottery ticket prospect due to how he is doing, but he lacks the track record for much value.

Every other position player either will not net much of return, or you want to keep for now. However, I could see some shifting moves of moving some of our middle infield depth to get a catcher for the future, then trade Jeffers for some pitching, and trade the pen guys or a starter to supplement the farm. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

The Twins have "long eyed" the Guardians and Rays because they are cheap, not because they are successful winning organizations.  Modeling your team on 2 franchises that have combined for 0 World Series in 75 years is just such a loser mentality.  

The model for the Twins, if they can't come up with intelligent strategies of their own that fit with this market, should be the Cardinals.  

The only team in the bottom half of revenue that has won the WS in recent memory is the Royals.  Do you want the Twins to model their practices.  The Royals rank dead last in win percentage over the past 20 years and they have won 90 games in a season exactly once, the year they won the WS.  They built most of that roster by sucking really bad for many years and getting high draft picks.  The WS measure is a very poor anecdotal measure given how rare it has become for teams in the bottom half of revenue.

[Parfigliano]

27 minutes ago, AKTwinsFan said:

I say extend Ryan, look to maybe deal Columbe. Duran and Jax are too valuable to the success of Minnesota for a post season run. With Detroit losing their last 4 games of the season we can start off the second half with another 10+ winning streak. Things could get interesting if Matthew's and Lopez return soon. Gabriel Gonzalez might be a trade piece for any acquisitions. 

I don't think Lopez will pitch another MLB inning this year

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The only team in the bottom half of revenue that has won the WS in recent memory is the Royals.  Do you want the Twins to model their practices.  The Royals rank dead last in win percentage over the past 20 years and they have won 90 games in a season exactly once, the year they won the WS.  They built most of that roster by sucking really bad for many years and getting high draft picks.  The WS measure is a very poor anecdotal measure given how rare it has become for teams in the bottom half of revenue.

People really can't seem to remember this. 

I have a lot of things I'd like this team to do differently, but model KC and similar teams is not one. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

I agree with your assessment. What do you think is lacking. Is this about talent evaluation. Is there an issue with player development. My perception is that Tampa and Cleveland make very few poor trades and almost always seem to sell high on the players that are traded. The one exception might be the Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz trade. 

IMO, our evaluation team does a fine job, especially in the draft. They have switched their focus to more athletic players. IMO, the problem with player evaluation comes when management steps in & makes choices based on their standards. There were many players that I thought were replaceable & we could have sold high on them but management chose to keep them & they have tanked. They often make choices depending on their analytics & overlooking physical concerns & underlying problems. Their analytics put more focus on HR development than fundamentals like defense, baserunning, bunting, etc. IMO, they are starting to see their problem but it's hard to change their mindset that they have used for years & it's too easy to fall back on their old ways. Plus a lot of their players they have developed are based on the old mindset & are not able to transition very well to the new.

IMO, selling is lot easier than buying & is less tricky. The Ryan/ Cruz trade, IMO, was not a bad trade: TB had pitchers & they needed a slugger, Cruz fit the bill. Cruz was comfortable here in MN, with his nap room, & he produced. Cruz just did not adjusted well to the trade.