Twins Must Attempt to Follow Guardians' and Rays' Blueprints at MLB Trade Deadline

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins, in my opinion, need to do my emulating of these teams in that they need to move more of their established players. But not as many of them as those teams. They still have significantly higher payrolls. I've been saying for a quite a while now that one of Lopez, Ryan, or Ober (if he comes back and dominates) should be traded this offseason for offensive help. That'd be the Cleveland/Tampa type move. Trade an established arm (Kluber, Snell, Glasnow) that's getting (or is) more expensive for multiple longer term pieces with higher risk but lots of reward.

The Twins need to stop losing so many guys for nothing, but they also have more spending power than those 2 organizations so they shouldn't be run exactly the same. It's a balance.

100% agree with this, one should go this off season, one next trade deadline, and one the following 26 (unless Ryan will take a short extension. That would reload the farm system with high end prospects and likely possible high end flyers that can be added to the team or used to fill needs.

They should offer Jenkins the Chourio contract (10 years 100 million?) and start him next year. They should already be talking to CC about 3rd base because Culpepper shouldn't be far behind Jenkins. 

If Festa, Matthews, SWR and others don't pan out and the Twins are still successful they could use some of their prospects and/or prospects they receive to fill the gap (kind of like the Lopez/Arraez trade). 

They need to stop loading the 40 man roster with back ups, Fitzgerald, Gasper, Julien, Miranda, Keirsey, McCusker, Martin, Camargo, Erod, Gillispie, Misewicz, Davis, Addams and dare I say France. That is darn need a third of their 40. (Yes, I get there needs to be a couple of spots for prospects and./or backups) But this many really? 

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Completely agree and I have voiced this position quite a few times here.  I would like to see them follow most of their practices and use the incremental revenue they have over these teams.  Ideally, they would have more of the type of players we want to extend which would result in them moving fewer established players.  It would only be a few less but the players we kept would hopefully be impact players.  Rameriz for example is a waaaay better deal than Correa.  He produces more for 60% of Correa's salary.

And now we've circled back to the development that drives this all. You have to develop a Jose Ramirez in order to extend them instead of signing free agent Correa. Extending internally developed stars before they hit free agency is how you get them for cheaper. Buy out arb years early. Like Atlanta. You're not going to get Acuna/Albies crazy deals, but you're going to get better than Correa deals. But the Twins haven't been able to develop an Acuna or Ramirez or Franco (before we knew he was a terrible person) worthy of an extension that would save them money.

Buxton, obviously, is on a steal of a deal (for his talent), but that's for a very different reason. Ramirez also took a discount to stay there, so he's a bit of an outlier, but the idea remains. Internally developed stars are the far easier way to cheaper deals.

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, Linus said:

So if the strategy is the difference that implies the other small or mid market clubs are unaware of what the Rays et al are doing. Don’t find that plausible. 

That is not an even remotely logical conclusion.   Other teams are VERY aware of practices followed in Tampa, Cleveland, and Oakland.   Many teams, even large market teams have adopted practices similar to those followed in Cleveland and especially Tampa over the last 10+ years.  However, other teams have different personnel with different opinions that result in different strategies.  Fans have different opinions on how to do things as well.  Many hate Cleveland's practices despite their success.

[Linus]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

That is not an even remotely logical conclusion.   Other teams are VERY aware of practices followed in Tampa, Cleveland, and Oakland.   Many teams, even large market teams have adopted practices similar to those followed in Cleveland and especially Tampa over the last 10+ years.  However, other teams have different personnel with different opinions that result in different strategies.  Fans have different opinions on how to do things as well.  Many hate Cleveland's practices despite their success.

That’s my point. Everyone is aware of what is going on. So they are choosing to do what they deem best or they are just better at executing the strategy they chose. 

[TwinsDr2021]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If people really believe most minor league players success is random, you need more of them that MIGHT succeed for any to do so (I don't believe it is random, at the top and bottom of the pool. But the middle? kind of, yes).

IMO it isn't random ( I agree with you on the top, middle bottom) the best players in the majors are guys with obvious talent and are up at a earlier age (Not all of those succeed, but they succeed at a much higher rate then guys that come up later) , guys that come up later and do succeed for a bit usually end flaming out earlier as well. (see Plouffe, Cordova, Ford, Jones, and hundreds of other examples) then guys that come up earlier and succeed. 

Obviously they are exceptions to this rule, but banking your team on these exceptions IMO lead to the Twins the last 4 years. All these players were brought up at or after age 24 (Cave, Palacios, Contreras, Hamilton, Gordon, Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Wallner, Martin, Helman, Keirsey, Castillo, Gasper, Solano, Garlick, Farmer,  McCusker, Clemens, Fitzgerald, Bride, France, and even Bader is on the edge)  With Sabato, Schobel, Winkel, Eeles, Parto, Holland, Ross, Ortega, Rucker, Fedko,  being the next hopefuls? 

Is it really a wonder this team can't hit consistently? on top of the guys brought up earlier have been hurt on and off, AK, Lewis, Lee, Keashall, CC, Buxton, Polanco. (Don't remember if Kepler was hurt, but the previous 3 years only played in 105, 130, 115 games. 

People hate that I bring up age all the time but how many of those age 24+ players have worked out, or has sustained and level of consistency for a period of time?  Bader? maybe, Wallner possibly, but not really (yet, hopefully), Larnach is a OK player? 

With all that said these type of players can be very useful and are absolutely needed (cost wise for sure). Clemens and Bader have been useful and decent if not better but should they be guys blocking a young prospect with a higher upside? Only if they are taking a spot or up on the active roster. 

[Major League Ready]

24 minutes ago, Linus said:

That’s my point. Everyone is aware of what is going on. So they are choosing to do what they deem best or they are just better at executing the strategy they chose. 

Even the Ray's, A's, and Guardians are not following identical practices, but they definitely operate differently than other teams.  Part of that is pure necessity.  They literally have 1/3 the revenue of the top revenue teams.  It goes without saying that they are effectively executing these strategies.

The Guardians rarely spend in free agency.  The Rays spend sparingly but get great value for the dollar.   Charlie Morton for example.   They managed to get a great free agent SP on a moderate AAV, two-year deal.  They also cycle through more (as they are called here) dumpster bin cast-offs than any other team.

Cleveland and Tampa have traded a lot of good players in their last year.  This strategy has arguably been the biggest difference maker for these organizations.  They have gotten 5-6 years of good production by trading players in their final year.  Look at Kluber as an example.  Texas got nothing out of Kluber and Cleveland got Emmanuel Clause.  This also how the got Clevinger, Carasco, Bauer, Sanatana, Haffner, and many others

[Linus]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

Even the Ray's, A's, and Guardians are not following identical practices, but they definitely operate differently than other teams.  Part of that is pure necessity.  They literally have 1/3 the revenue of the top revenue teams.  It goes without saying that they are effectively executing these strategies.

The Rays have been spent the FA dollars they have really effectively.  Charlie Morton for example.   They managed to get a great free agent SP on a moderate AAV, two-year deal.  They also cycle through more (as they are called here) dumpster bin cast-offs than any other team.

Cleveland and Tampa have traded a lot of good players in their last year.  This strategy has arguably been the biggest difference maker for these organizations.  They have gotten 5-6 years of good production by trading players in their final year.  Look at Kluber as an example.  Texas got nothing out of Kluber and Cleveland got Emmanuel Clause.  This also how the got Clevinger, Carasco, Bauer, Sanatana, Haffner, and many others

So they are better at executing their plan. 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

100% agree with this, one should go this off season, one next trade deadline, and one the following 26 (unless Ryan will take a short extension. That would reload the farm system with high end prospects and likely possible high end flyers that can be added to the team or used to fill needs.

They should offer Jenkins the Chourio contract (10 years 100 million?) and start him next year. They should already be talking to CC about 3rd base because Culpepper shouldn't be far behind Jenkins. 

If Festa, Matthews, SWR and others don't pan out and the Twins are still successful they could use some of their prospects and/or prospects they receive to fill the gap (kind of like the Lopez/Arraez trade). 

They need to stop loading the 40 man roster with back ups, Fitzgerald, Gasper, Julien, Miranda, Keirsey, McCusker, Martin, Camargo, Erod, Gillispie, Misewicz, Davis, Addams and dare I say France. That is darn need a third of their 40. (Yes, I get there needs to be a couple of spots for prospects and./or backups) But this many really? 

Oh boy, you're going to get some strong feelings on both sides of the Jenkins idea. If he crushes it for the rest of the year I'm all for it. I'd have Culpepper up in September to get his feet wet if he keeps going for another month+. 

I don't know that I'd already be planning on trading a second arm next deadline, but I wouldn't be totally closed off to it like I'm sure the majority of posters will be. It would depend on how the season is going. But the offseason after next year? Different story, especially if other arms are stepping up. Which is the whole reason Cleveland and Tampa are typically good. They keep back filling from their system. The Twins need Festa, Matthews, SWR, Raya, Lewis, whoever to claim spots.

Hard to speak on the 40-man thing. I don't think they expected Julien, Miranda, Martin, Emma, or France to be backups. The first 4 on that list are just examples of them needing to be better at getting the guys from their system who are supposed to be claiming starting or core roles to actually be starter or core players. But I don't know what the average 40-man roster looks like. Gasper was on one the previous year. I'm pretty positive you'll find a lot of Camargo types on them as 3rd catchers. And there's a billion relievers on the back end of 40-mans across the league being DFA'd and added and subtracted and moved around. Their refusal to move on from them sure feels like an extreme outlier, though. And part of that is the core of all of this, they simply don't have anyone to push them off the roster because they aren't developing at near a good enough rate. Culpepper should push Fitzgerald off by September to get his first cup of coffee, but they don't have many guys in the minors threatening those spots. Because they've been pretty awful at developing position players.

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, Linus said:

So they are better at executing their plan. 

Yes, they execute their plan.  No, it's not the same as other team's plans.  If you execute a less effective plan, you are still less effective.  You only want to acknowledge the part that fits your narrative.  

[TheLeviathan]

One thing I think worth pointing out, that rarely happens in these situations, is that if the Twins had been doing what is recommended here.....we may not be having this very conversation right now.

2021 the Twins were 73-89 and decided not to trade Sano, Polanco, Donaldson, Garver, Colume, Theilbar, or Duffy at the deadline.  They did move Happ, Cruz, and Berrios.  Half-assing that deadline cost the team potential talent that could be supplementing the roster right now!  Even if two guys from the trade hauls of those players had manifested we might be buyers rather than sellers.  (And if...by some terrible luck we had gotten NOTHING from those deals....we'd still be no worse off!)

That's the missed opportunity.  So much lost value and opportunity for guys that provided virtually nothing in the years ahead.  We clutched them so tightly and we're paying the bills now.

[TwinsDr2021]

59 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh boy, you're going to get some strong feelings on both sides of the Jenkins idea. If he crushes it for the rest of the year I'm all for it. I'd have Culpepper up in September to get his feet wet if he keeps going for another month+. 

I don't know that I'd already be planning on trading a second arm next deadline, but I wouldn't be totally closed off to it like I'm sure the majority of posters will be. It would depend on how the season is going. But the offseason after next year? Different story, especially if other arms are stepping up. Which is the whole reason Cleveland and Tampa are typically good. They keep back filling from their system. The Twins need Festa, Matthews, SWR, Raya, Lewis, whoever to claim spots.

Hard to speak on the 40-man thing. I don't think they expected Julien, Miranda, Martin, Emma, or France to be backups. The first 4 on that list are just examples of them needing to be better at getting the guys from their system who are supposed to be claiming starting or core roles to actually be starter or core players. But I don't know what the average 40-man roster looks like. Gasper was on one the previous year. I'm pretty positive you'll find a lot of Camargo types on them as 3rd catchers. And there's a billion relievers on the back end of 40-mans across the league being DFA'd and added and subtracted and moved around. Their refusal to move on from them sure feels like an extreme outlier, though. And part of that is the core of all of this, they simply don't have anyone to push them off the roster because they aren't developing at near a good enough rate. Culpepper should push Fitzgerald off by September to get his first cup of coffee, but they don't have many guys in the minors threatening those spots. Because they've been pretty awful at developing position players.

Chourio, Merrill, Volpe, Young and others weren't crushing just holding their own at a young age. IMO Jenkins is at the same level of prospect as them. 

I agree mostly with you on the 40 man, specifically about the pitchers, I included them to show how bad the 40 man is.  Erod getting hurt again wasn't in the plans, I am OK with his spot on there healthy or not (if he can stay healthy I am bringing him up after I trade Larnach), but them thinking Miranda, Julien Martin and France being anything more than backups is on them, the odds were against all 4 or them (or even 2) succeeding. Also, I get the third catcher spot I would imagine most teams third catcher is similar. 

I look at Culpepper like Jackson Holiday, get him up (most likely he will be blown away like Holiday was last year) and then start him in the minors and get him up if he hitting. (Not a fan of giving two unproven rookies the starting job out of spring training. 

They have to do a better job of finding out what they have in young players to built the core, them supplement with all of these unproven guys around the age of 25 or so, and if one or more pops they are sitting in a good position. (Kind of like the Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Rosario, Polanco, Arraez, with the Dozier being the surprise guy older guy succeeding)

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Yes, they execute their plan.  No, it's not the same as other team's plans.  If you execute a less effective plan, you are still less effective.  You only want to acknowledge the part that fits your narrative.  

I am with you that some teams have different plans. Where we disagree is that I believe all the FO are aware and choose differently, in other words they don’t agree with your assertion that there is one “best” plan. Maybe they are wrong and you are right. I simply believe the decisions made by a respective FO are the most important factor which is why so many FO people are poached from the teams you reference. FWIW I’m in agreement with you on the importance of prospects and prospect development as the key to success. Anyway Ive said my piece and won’t take it any further. 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

That’s my point. Everyone is aware of what is going on. So they are choosing to do what they deem best or they are just better at executing the strategy they chose. 

Things are rarely black and white so it's probably a combination of both things you list... plus other stuff we haven't even thought of. 

I have no idea what specifically is wrong inside the operation but something is wrong.

I'll start with a premise that could play a major role in there decision making. I could be right... I could be wrong but here goes. 

The Twins are going for it... right now... That's it... that's the premise...  and they have been going for it for many years now . That mindset is the path they have chosen... going for it and NOT quite getting there potentially causing a sacrifice of tomorrow.  

Nothing wrong with going for it... a rebuild isn't necessarily necessary. The problem is that the Brewers, Rays and Cleveland are also going for it with a completely different approach. 

I was guessing that the Brewers were going to rebuild after trading Corbin Burnes. They didn't. They just capably replaced Corbin Burnes with players from their system. They had faith in what they were doing on the development side. 

The Twins don't display that same faith toward THEIR own development. Why? I don't know but it's the crux of the problem in my eyes. Why is that? Is it their belief that they need seasoned players in order to consistently go for it and limiting opportunity from the farm or are they looking at their pile of players on the farm and not liking what they see. 

Either way... it's a development problem and ultimately we are low on pre-arb players while the Brewers have double the amount and still going for it.   

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Chourio, Merrill, Volpe, Young and others weren't crushing just holding their own at a young age. IMO Jenkins is at the same level of prospect as them. 

I agree mostly with you on the 40 man, specifically about the pitchers, I included them to show how bad the 40 man is.  Erod getting hurt again wasn't in the plans, I am OK with his spot on there healthy or not (if he can stay healthy I am bringing him up after I trade Larnach), but them thinking Miranda, Julien Martin and France being anything more than backups is on them, the odds were against all 4 or them (or even 2) succeeding. Also, I get the third catcher spot I would imagine most teams third catcher is similar. 

I look at Culpepper like Jackson Holiday, get him up (most likely he will be blown away like Holiday was last year) and then start him in the minors and get him up if he hitting. (Not a fan of giving two unproven rookies the starting job out of spring training. 

They have to do a better job of finding out what they have in young players to built the core, them supplement with all of these unproven guys around the age of 25 or so, and if one or more pops they are sitting in a good position. (Kind of like the Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Rosario, Polanco, Arraez, with the Dozier being the surprise guy older guy succeeding)

I'm all for giving Jenkins a shot to start next year if he keeps doing well. But I'm not going to assume what he'll do the rest of the season. He's slugging .365 at AA right now. There are certainly some things to keep an eye on the rest of the year before I'm handing him an opening day gig. He still has to earn it with his play and not just my scouting report on him. If he ends the season slugging under .400 at AA I wouldn't want him anywhere near my major league roster.

Miranda had a 112 OPS+ last year and a 114 OPS+ in his previous healthy season at the major league level. In over 400 PAs both years. If that's not good enough to assume he can be a 7-hole hitter in a major league lineup, I don't know what you're looking for. Julien, Martin, and France are different stories, and I wasn't happy with the France signing at all. But Julien and Martin are the types of guys I want them to give ABs to over somebody like France. Martin isn't likely a starter type, but he may be a utility type. And there's absolutely room on a 40- and 26-man roster for a league minimum guy like that. And cutting Julien after 1 great year and 1 bad year without seeing if he could make the adjustment would've been an awful decision. His odds of being a starter were 50/50. Plenty of guys like him on 40-mans all over the league. I think complaining about Miranda, Julien, and Martin on the 40-man is incredibly aggressive. Those are guys you'd find on every 40-man. How deep do you think other teams are that they're cutting guys with OPS+ of 112 the season before or who had a 130 OPS+ their rookie year 2 seasons before?

I think our definitions of "starter" are different. There's starters, above average starters, and stars. There was very good reasons to see if those guys could be starters, and every reason to expect Miranda was a starter. Not stars or above average starters (mostly because their gloves would never allow them to be above average overall), but starters. 

 

[Linus]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Things are rarely black and white so it's probably a combination of both things you list... plus other stuff we haven't even thought of. 

I have no idea what specifically is wrong inside the operation but something is wrong.

I'll start with a premise that could play a major role in there decision making. I could be right... I could be wrong but here goes. 

The Twins are going for it... right now... That's it... that's the premise...  and they have been going for it for many years now . That mindset is the path they have chosen... going for it and quite getting there potentially causing a sacrifice of tomorrow.  

Nothing wrong with going for it... a rebuild isn't necessarily necessary. The problem is that the Brewers, Rays and Cleveland are also going for it with a completely different approach. 

I was guessing that the Brewers were going to rebuild after trading Corbin Burnes. They didn't. They just capably replaced Corbin Burnes with players from their system. They had faith in what they were doing on the development side. 

The Twins don't display that same faith toward THEIR own development. Why? I don't know but it's the crux of the problem in my eyes. Why is that? Is it their belief that they need seasoned players in order to consistently go for it and limit opportunity or are they looking at their pile of players and not liking what they see. 

Either way... it's a development problem and ultimately we are low on pre-arb players while the Brewers have double the amount and still going for it.   

No question - if you are developing players all things are possible. Want to trade a prime mlb player?  You can do it because you have someone ready to take his place. Need to supplement your roster with a big leaguer?  You’ve got prospect capital to make the deal. If you are not developing players none of this is possible. I guess I’m preaching to the choir here. 
Why don’t the Twins show faith in their prospects?  My guess is they have determined they aren’t good enough which says volumes about the things down on the farm. 

[TwinsDr2021]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Miranda had a 112 OPS+ last year and a 114 OPS+ in his previous healthy season at the major league level. In over 400 PAs both years. If that's not good enough to assume he can be a 7-hole hitter in a major league lineup, I don't know what you're looking for. Julien, Martin, and France are different stories, and I wasn't happy with the France signing at all. But Julien and Martin are the types of guys I want them to give ABs to over somebody like France

That is kind of my point, sure it would be OK to have a Miranda and/or Julien and see what they have because they never have been full time players. And I agree with what you are saying with Martin as well. The problem isn't those guys by themselves, it is they are surrounded by Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, Lee,  Clemens, France, Bader, Keirsay and others. That is 5 of 8 positions (SS, CF, and Catcher being the other three) on top of they always have to plan for a outside back up for Buxton because there hasn't been an internal option. And now for two years that back up option has been moved to another outfield position because of the flaws of internal options. 

I probably shouldn't include Lee because he is basically playing fulltime to see what they have in him (I agree with this decision) and if he continues to play the way he has, IMO he is the roving infield back up, if he improves give him 2nd or third. 

But if nothing changes the Twins will go into a third year in a row, with the same unproven players as they have the last two (Wallner, Larnach, Lewis, Julien, Miranda), I do get this team has been snake bit by injuries but the next man up usually is some cast off, or probably too old of prospect. Maybe things are changing with Erod, Jenkins, Keashall and Culpepper, but as of now they are all still hopeful unproven players to be added to the list of unproven players. 

By the time Detroit realized Castro wasn't a full time core player to build around (and pay) he was 25, the Twins haven't figured out what half their team is and they all (except Keashall and Lee) are 25 and some much older. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

That is kind of my point, sure it would be OK to have a Miranda and/or Julien and see what they have because they never have been full time players. And I agree with what you are saying with Martin as well. The problem isn't those guys by themselves, it is they are surrounded by Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, Lee,  Clemens, France, Bader, Keirsay and others. That is 5 of 8 positions (SS, CF, and Catcher being the other three) on top of they always have to plan for a outside back up for Buxton because there hasn't been an internal option. And now for two years that back up option has been moved to another outfield position because of the flaws of internal options. 

I probably shouldn't include Lee because he is basically playing fulltime to see what they have in him (I agree with this decision) and if he continues to play the way he has, IMO he is the roving infield back up, if he improves give him 2nd or third. 

But if nothing changes the Twins will go into a third year in a row, with the same unproven players as they have the last two (Wallner, Larnach, Lewis, Julien, Miranda), I do get this team has been snake bit by injuries but the next man up usually is some cast off, or probably too old of prospect. Maybe things are changing with Erod, Jenkins, Keashall and Culpepper, but as of now they are all still hopeful unproven players to be added to the list of unproven players. 

By the time Detroit realized Castro wasn't a full time core player to build around (and pay) he was 25, the Twins haven't figured out what half their team is and they all (except Keashall and Lee) are 25 and some much older. 

Ah, we are on the same page here. Yes, too big of a collection of "unknowns." Whether by their own doing (holding Miranda down in a lost 2021 season while he's destroying minor league pitching) or injury problems (Larnach, Lewis, and Miranda mostly). 

My bigger concern is that they appear to me to compound the problem of these unknowns with misjudging talent and caring more about securing the floor than raising the ceiling. I think Detroit made a mistake moving on from Castro because he's a valuable player, just not a core player. But the Twins make the opposite mistake in not moving on from guys in his range of talent because they believe they're core players. Kepler being the one that sticks out most to me recently. They claimed to have been open to trading him for years but never getting enough offered in return. Well, that probably means you overvalued him. And they kept hitting him at the top of their lineup (sometimes he was the best option, sadly) because they expected him to be better than he was. He was a fine player because of his glove, but he wasn't a core piece. They treated him like a core piece. 

I would've liked a shakeup to the position side for this season, but think it's completely and utterly vital for next year. Even if you think you're risking the next Big Papi. Too bad. Have to make some decisions and shake some things up and get new blood in here.

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

And now we've circled back to the development that drives this all. You have to develop a Jose Ramirez in order to extend them instead of signing free agent Correa. Extending internally developed stars before they hit free agency is how you get them for cheaper. Buy out arb years early. Like Atlanta. You're not going to get Acuna/Albies crazy deals, but you're going to get better than Correa deals. But the Twins haven't been able to develop an Acuna or Ramirez or Franco (before we knew he was a terrible person) worthy of an extension that would save them money.

Buxton, obviously, is on a steal of a deal (for his talent), but that's for a very different reason. Ramirez also took a discount to stay there, so he's a bit of an outlier, but the idea remains. Internally developed stars are the far easier way to cheaper deals.

As Fonsie would say: Exactamundo. Or was that Laverne or Shirley? 

If you want to extend Jose Ramirez you have to develop Jose Ramirez. 

And in addition to that... you have to be able to afford the extension. 

And you can't afford the extension because your roster is filled with players in arbitration or one year free agent necessities because you are light on players that don't cost money. 

For a team going for it... Why is trading Joe Ryan a legitimate discussion? It's a legitimate discussion because Arb raises are going to eat up the majority of money coming off the books and we still have 7 to 9 roster holes that need to be filled.

So the answer is to:

A. Trade Joe Ryan to free up cash to fill the 8 other holes that need filling.

B. Trade Duran and Jax to free up the cash to keep Joe Ryan and still have the problem with the 8 other holes that need filling. 

C. Sell everything not nailed down. Buxton and Correa are nailed down and surround those two with the future in an all at once fashion. 

If the answer is C... I'm going to ask for a new front office to lead us through this since the reason answer C is the option is because of their development failure. An influx of players that need development in the hands of people who are not developing is like turning the faucet on with the drain wide open. 

One last point... that fits what we are talking about. How does Dombrowski get fired in Boston? He won a world series and gets fired. How is that possible? It's possible he got fired because he had left himself with nothing coming from the farm... while payroll continued to increase. Payroll was maxed out... the team had a down year. The owner asks him how to fix it and he has no choice but to ask for more money because he burnt down the cheaper option avenue. 

Enter Bloom to reset the franchise. Which he does despite some additional down years as the Red Sox are now in the process of bringing in multiple high end players making the minimum. 

Bloom will get the Cards farm producing... Bank on it. Dombrowski is doing well in Philly but seems to be a little more attentive to the farm this time around. 

 

[DocBauer]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins, in my opinion, need to do my emulating of these teams in that they need to move more of their established players. But not as many of them as those teams. They still have significantly higher payrolls. I've been saying for a quite a while now that one of Lopez, Ryan, or Ober (if he comes back and dominates) should be traded this offseason for offensive help. That'd be the Cleveland/Tampa type move. Trade an established arm (Kluber, Snell, Glasnow) that's getting (or is) more expensive for multiple longer term pieces with higher risk but lots of reward.

The Twins need to stop losing so many guys for nothing, but they also have more spending power than those 2 organizations so they shouldn't be run exactly the same. It's a balance.

A good thing is the Twins have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax, and Duran all through 2027. The bad news is the control for them all dissolves pretty much the same time.

The silver lining to 2025 at this point is more time for SWR, Festa, and Matthews to get more opportunity to gain experience and grow. And there's a couple more arms that could be ready next year, or 2027, even if we don't include Soto or Hill in that group.

I believe they leaned in to college arms so strong in this last draft because that was the deepest part of the draft, and not as "quick fix" options. It just turns out as a lucky coincidence that it works out that way.

Personally, I like Larnach even though he's not a star player. Wouldn't it be awesome if Rodriguez could stay healthy and just take over his spot and make him tradeable?

But I agree that any major moves of controllable players should take place in the offseason. Not only have they done better overall in such trades, but it gives the younger players more time this season to develop. Again, I reference how the Brewers might be an even better example than Cleveland or Tampa.

[twinstalker]

You can't just say you want to be like TB and Cleveland, you have to also have the smarts to make the decisions they make, and you have to have the same level of development.  Having 1-2 from those organizations in your own doesn't make you as smart as the guys they weren't ready to let go to a team like Minnesota.

[Riverbrian]

23 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

 I want them to try young players in their system (if they don't think those players exist, they should resign).

This is such a good sentence and it should be repeated over and over. This sentence speaks volumes. 

If they don't think they have the players on the farm. They should tender their resignations because apart from wins. Having the players in their system is the single most important job that they have.

If the players don't exist... they haven't done the job required. 

 

   

[KirbyDome89]

20 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

If we want to add in the ability to be fortune tellers....Manzardo being a replacement level player is a cheaper upgrade over what Civale has provided.  0 is still better than -1.  

But the pedestal is there because that's the process that has a chance to work.  The fact it isn't working right now a year and a half later doesn't necessarily make it the wrong one.  They got good value in those moves.  Ultimately, they dealt a starter taht was having a good year but with an iffy track record (who wound up mostly being terrible since the trade) for a top 50 prospect.

I'll take that process all day long.  I'll put it in real terms....if the Cubs offered Owen Caisse for Bailey Ober....I take that trade.  I'd take Luke Keaschall for Bailey Ober right now.  I have no problem with that pedestal.

I'm guessing almost every FO is following a process with a chance to work. Moving an arb eligible player for a prospect in and of itself isn't some genius transaction. The results do actually matter here, especially if we're going to point at Cleveland and say "be them," or argue that they've kept themselves afloat competitively with their moves over the last few deadlines. They just committed a year's worth of playing time in exchange for replacement level production, they had to turn around and trade for a broken SP the very next deadline, and they're still sinking playing time into an OF who is a negative WAR player. I don't want to be Cleveland....

If we want to say the jury is out because Manzardo hasn't had enough time, ok, but I'll say it again, Cleveland isn't a team I'm interested in emulating. If it's just about the constant offloading of arb eligible talent for prospects that seems like a zero sum game at best, unless you're very consistently selling poison pills. 

 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm guessing almost every FO is following a process with a chance to work. Moving an arb eligible player for a prospect in and of itself isn't some genius transaction. The results do actually matter here, especially if we're going to point at Cleveland and say "be them," or argue that they've kept themselves afloat competitively with their moves over the last few deadlines. They just committed a year's worth of playing time in exchange for replacement level production, they had to turn around and trade for a broken SP the very next deadline, and they're still sinking playing time into an OF who is a negative WAR player. I don't want to be Cleveland....

If we want to say the jury is out because Manzardo hasn't had enough time, ok, but I'll say it again, Cleveland isn't a team I'm interested in emulating. If it's just about the constant offloading of arb eligible talent for prospects that seems like a zero sum game at best, unless you're very consistently selling poison pills. 

 

To draw your conclusion you have used an artificially narrow line of testing.  That testing, as you constructed it, woupd lead to a 100% failure rate when applied to any team and any process.  Including "Be the Dodgers and have a gazillion dollars"

If your test yields a demonstrably flawed coclusion of total, 100% failure....the test is flawed.

[jorgenswest]

I have thought about the Guardians and Rays. I think the 2024 Tigers had a better plan.

[mluebker]

On 7/17/2025 at 6:28 AM, dxpavelka said:

LOVE the whole "the new owners will want to win" bit.  Good comedy.

Yeah, but it feels better than, “Griffiths and Pohlads: breaking our hearts since 1961.”

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, mluebker said:

Yeah, but it feels better than, “Griffiths and Pohlads: breaking our hearts since 1961.”

it'll just be a different name inserted

 

[mluebker]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

On 7/19/2025 at 7:12 AM, mluebker said:

Yeah, but it feels better than, “Griffiths and Pohlads: breaking our hearts since 1961.”

it'll just be a different name inserted

 

I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Until we open the box, it’s Schrödinger’s ownership group.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, mluebker said:

I guess we’ll have to wait and see. Until we open the box, it’s Schrödinger’s ownership group.

Did a little research.  In this century, no team has sold and won a championship in less than eight years.  MOST have not been nearly that successful. 

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

To draw your conclusion you have used an artificially narrow line of testing.  That testing, as you constructed it, woupd lead to a 100% failure rate when applied to any team and any process.  Including "Be the Dodgers and have a gazillion dollars"

If your test yields a demonstrably flawed coclusion of total, 100% failure....the test is flawed.

Smh, so teams like Sacramento, Miami, or Pittsburgh aren't making arb eligible for prospect swaps? Context matters. Results matter.

If you're a fan of what Cleveland did the last few deadlines, if you like the way they look, and you want the Twins to emulate them then I've glad you've found some path to happiness with this directionless franchise we choose to follow. 

[mluebker]

20 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Did a little research.  In this century, no team has sold and won a championship in less than eight years.  MOST have not been nearly that successful. 

Still sounds like “wait and see” to me. Pohlad bought the Twins in 1984 and they were world champions in 1987. And from the perspective of a guy who’s been a Twins fan since 1961, even waiting eight years sounds better than the 34 years we’ve been waiting since they last time they did it in 1991.