5 Major Trade Candidates if Twins Decide to Reshuffle Their Core

[Nate Palmer]

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Major League Baseball (and the Minnesota Twins) are exactly four weeks away from the 2025 trade deadline. At this point, the Twins are within striking distance of a playoff spot. The problem is that when they haven’t been playing well, the performance has been very discouraging, which makes “buying” hard to endorse—and, as we will explore here, makes one wonder if the Twins have a core ready to compete for the playoffs, let alone make a deep run. With that in mind, it may be prudent for the front office to consider tearing down what was expected to be the core of this team and forming a new one for future seasons. 

Not everything will happen overnight. A core rebuild could happen quickly, as the Twins do have some quality pieces and would need to look to supplement that group better than they have been currently. A core rebuild likely cannot happen in full by the end of the month, but the Twins can get a strong start on the process.  

The most obvious thing that can happen immediately is a series of marginal moves: trading away players on expiring deals. Willi Castro, Chris Paddack, and Harrison Bader top that list. When we consider establishing a new core, this group and their trade value may not be enough, but the trades could prove valuable as a source of organizational depth that can develop into regulars, future trade targets, and, of course, the chance of a high-performing wild card acquisition. Moving someone like Bader out could also force the team to get a longer look at Austin Martin or DaShawn Keirsey Jr., accelerating the evaluation process (and perhaps, over the next year, accelerating turnover) for those prime-aged players on the fringes of the roster.

Changing the core, however, would require bigger and riskier moves, too. Here are some moves with larger consequences that the Twins could consider—ones that would shake up the core and help establish a new one.

Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner
As the two lefties came up through the minors, it always seemed it would be a miracle if both were genuinely able to work long-term on the Twins roster together. This deadline may be the perfect time to part with one player to find value in another. With the Twins' organizational depth, no player acquired for one of these two would need to replace them on the roster. 

For one, Wallner or Larnach would still exist on the roster, and would fill the role of a left-handed corner outfielder. Some well-regarded prospects could fill in at their positions (looking at you, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez) soon. This move also creates room for the Twins to identify a right-handed bat to insert into the lineup, something that this club desperately needs, and has needed for some time.

As far as which lefty to send out, that feels like a toss-up. While both are left-handed, Larnach and Wallner bring slightly different skill sets to the table. Wallner appears to have the highest chance of being a game-changing power bat, which may tip the scale for the Twins. Taking the best package available in this scenario is the best way to go. 

Royce Lewis
We know this story all too well. Royce Lewis can’t seem to stay healthy in a Twins jersey, or their affiliates' jerseys. Lately, even when healthy, he has struggled to produce. Lewis is just back from his most recent stint on the IL, and if he can regain any offensive form, it could be the prime opportunity for the Twins to part ways with him and reshape part of their core. 

A change of scenery could jumpstart Lewis's career. Moving him would also give the Twins more freedom to think about the future on the infield. If this sort of move works for Lewis, the Twins front office will undoubtedly hear about it for ages. (Anyone heard about this David Ortiz guy?) At the same time, there are currently plenty of question marks surrounding Lewis, and instead of reacting in fear, the Twins need to decide if they can afford to wait on Lewis and watch him not regain form. 

Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax
A trade of one of these two is the most obvious possibility this month, among the major options. At the same time, it may cut to the heart of fans the most, because these two have been largely blameless during the team's recent spiral. Relief pitchers are the most expendable players on any non-playoff roster, but they're also the easiest players to slot into contending ones.

Out of these two, I would have to believe the Twins would prefer to part ways with Duran. He would likely fetch the best package, and we must not forget that the decline in the top end of his velocity has been a concern over the past two seasons. Those concerns could be unwarranted, as Duran is putting together an excellent season. 

While Duran’s strike rate is down, his 1.69 ERA and 12 saves will undoubtedly catch the eye of a contending team looking to add a lockdown closer to the back end of their bullpen. Jax would be easier for many fans to stomach trading away, since he seems to have these blips where he gives up a series of games in a row before becoming a dominant reliever again. 

Last season, Tanner Scott was part of a package that netted the Marlins a top-50 prospect, along with three other Padres prospects. Lucas Erceg also found his way onto the Royals at the deadline in exchange for three prospects, including MLB.com’s number four-ranked prospect in the Royals system. Relievers can still fetch good packages at the trade deadline. Contenders want to be able to lock down games with as much certainty as possible. Duran has proved he can do it.

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Where are you at? Is it time to rebuild part of this core, or do you still have confidence in it? What moves would you make? Make it heard below! 

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[DJL44]

Trading Royce Lewis right now would be selling at the lowest of lows.

[dxpavelka]

The  only one of these moves that makes any sense is one of the two left handed hitting corner OF.  And only if the potential replacements are deemed ready by no later than the start of next season.  Making moves that only serve to create or exacerbate holes makes no sense.  

[BrokenCompass]

You have to look at this from the buyer's perspective. If you're a 1st or 2nd place team, are you desperate for a Matt Wallner or a Trevor Larnach to bat in the heart of your order right now? Probably not. They'd likely be platoon players or pinch hitters. Twins won't see much return for that. 

I don't think anyone's buying Royce Lewis, nor should the Twins sell when he's at rock bottom in his career. 

The Twins are really going to get a haul for Buxton or Joe Ryan, and maybe something for Duran. If you want a true rebuild, those are the guys are going to help with the foundation. The rest of the team is just window dressing. 

[Whitey333]

The Twins appear stuck in the middle and it's of their own doing. Of course the big question is ownership and a possible sale.  This team is going nowhere and is extremely boring to watch.  With a huge drop in TV revenues and declining attendance I works expect a payroll dump.  But who knows?

[tony&rodney]

In November of 2023 a trade of Royce Lewis to Seattle may have returned Bryan Woo. Would a trade now net Harry Ford? 

In a similar vein would Pittsburgh have listened to an offer of Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien for Chandler last November? What is Wallner's market today?

The two players who have value from the article are Duran and Jax. The Dodgers have so many pitchers. Could they be enticed to give up Dalton Rushing and a couple of oft-injured pitchers (River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan) for Griffin Jax, Christian Vazquez, and Emmanuel Rodriguez?

I have no idea what value the Twins place on players, much less how other teams view the Twins organization. I believe the Twins will stand pat, but I don't know if the last year has had any effect on the plan. Maybe it has but maybe it makes no difference.

[Twins reserve]

I do not comment often but I truly want to gage if my trade thoughts are even plausible to the many of experts on this site. 

The obvious trade for me is Duran to the dodgers for Dalton Rushing. Do you think either team would entertain this trade idea?

[arby58]

13 minutes ago, BrokenCompass said:

The Twins are really going to get a haul for Buxton or Joe Ryan, and maybe something for Duran. If you want a true rebuild, those are the guys are going to help with the foundation. The rest of the team is just window dressing. 

Buxton has a full no-trade contract and, from everything I've read, is happy here and wants to be one of those rare one-franchise career players. He and Correa aren't going anywhere.

I agree that Ryan is their most prized MLB tradeable asset at the moment - IF the Twins decide to shut it down, play-offs-wise, it would be interesting to see what kind of haul they could get for him.

[arby58]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

In a similar vein would Pittsburgh have listened to an offer of Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien for Chandler last November? What is Wallner's market today?

Somebody has to catch for the Twins - Wallner is as close to untouchable trade-wise as any tradeable position player.

[arby58]

5 minutes ago, Twins reserve said:

the I do not comment often but I truly want to gage if my trade thoughts are even plausible to the many of experts on this site. 

The obvious trade for me is Duran to the dodgers for Dalton Rushing. Do you think either team would entertain this trade idea?

The Baseball Trade Values Trade Simulator says that Duran has a surplus value of 19.1 and Rushing 43.1. According to that simulator, that trade isn't happening

[Cory Engelhardt]

Larnach and one of the relievers actually make a lot of sense. 

If they are truly selling and want a big haul, maybe they also look at one of their starting pitchers too?

[thelanges5]

Package Larnach or Wallner with some prospects to the Pirates for Mitch Keller. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Unless there is a directive from ownership to shed salary (not out of the question) or gut the team, the chances of trading Ryan are zero. Outside of the no-trade clauses, Ryan is the most valuable player on this team. Cost controlled, young, high-end SP are unbelievably rare in todays game. The only real thing I see happening while ownership is in flux is that Ryan gets a contract extension.

I have continuously said the Twins will have a punchers chance with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Correa, Buxton, and Lewis on the roster. Switch out Lewis for Jeffers, and this still holds true. Ownership needs the general perception to be that they care about the team. Destroying the quality components by trading or moving these guys will negatively affect the sale efforts.

Duran should be moved now. Highest value for the most replaceable piece. There is an argument for keeping Wallner and Castro (if they believe they can extend/resign him), but pretty much everyone else can be had for the right price.

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Somebody has to catch for the Twins - Wallner is as close to untouchable trade-wise as any tradeable position player.

The point was that player values are messy and it is arguable that Julien and Lewis have lost value since the 2023 season and Wallner has lost value since last season. The Twins are a risk adverse organization so I don't think anyone needs to worry about losing their favored players. The Arraez-Lopez trade was an exception.

I also stated that I have no idea how players are valued by either the Twins or any other team. The thought (not suggestion) of the Dodger trade now was wondering if the Twins would use current players with perceived high values.

Just curious why you named Matt Wallner as untouchable or did you mean there would be no interest in him from any other teams?

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Somebody has to catch for the Twins - Wallner is as close to untouchable trade-wise as any tradeable position player.

I would be interested to hear why you think Wallner is untouchable.  He has produced .2 WAR at this point of the season.  He was very good last year so I understand that prospective but untouchable?   

[Otaknam]

I think Duran should and will be traded if this downward spiral continues. An elite closer is a luxury if there aren’t enough games to close. And he’s not a rental player, so the trade package should be very good. And dealing either Larnach or Wallner makes sense because they are similar players, though Wallner may have more power potential. Either EROD or Jenkins could be ready as outfield replacements IF they can stay healthy,a big IF! 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Trading Royce Lewis right now would be selling at the lowest of lows.

Of course they are different players with far different past projections and hopes, but there was a similar comment last year about trading Julien. I would think Julien has seen a decline in his value from last year. Along those lines it is possible that Lewis can go much lower. 

Let us hope for a healed and healthy Royce Lewis playing at an effective level. However, I cannot predict the future.

[Western SD Fan]

This is the part of being a fan I am most fascinated with:  trying to be the GM without knowing all of the knowledge the GM knows in how to plan an organization for the next 1-5 years.  There are many things that concern me regarding this list or anyone that still has years left of arbitration left before free agency.

The team is still for sale at this moment, and I would find it frightening that a FO that may not be there would make sweeping changes that will affect the team for years to come.  I don't see many of our players with years left of arbitration that have enough built-up value to bring back any value in a trade that would help us in the near future.  Additionally, there is an expected lockout after the 2026 season.  The first potential work stoppage that will include the minor league players, as they are now part of the players union.  Any prolonged work stoppage may affect the minor leagues as well.  Think of another COVID type year and how that affected development of the minor leaguers.  

The players: 

Duran or Jax - I think we are fooling ourselves into thinking we are going to get a crop full of prospects for either one of them.  I also look at the Josh Hader trade from Milwaukee to San Diego.  Hader was traded a year later than a potential Duran trade, but was more well-established as a dominant closer, and yet still fell quite short of the kind of package we are expecting from a Duran trade. If we believe in this core, then you believe in a re-tooling for next year and Duran for next year is more valuable to you than what you would likely receive in a trade.

Larnach or Wallner - Larnach is a year closer to free agency and that always factors in your decision.  I don't see either one as really a strong enough trade piece to generate a useful prospect at the deadline.  This decision is better made for the offseason. 

Lewis - I'm not as worried as Lewis turning into the next David Ortiz as I am just making sure he is healthy, and we know everything we can get out of him prior to making a decision.  This may include seeing if he is willing to pick up a first baseman's glove in the offseason, especially if you believe in Keaschall coming back and being able to plug into 2B.  Lewis may end up being closer to Gio Urshela or Glyber Torres than Nolan Arenado, but we really won't know that until we have a full season where he is not injured for most of it.

We also have questions about Julien, Miranda, Martin, and others where they fit in the system going forward.  I'll end with this.  The Royals have brought up Jac Caglianone and seem to be committed to playing him on a daily basis, although he currently has an OPS+ of 21.  Do you think the Twins would do the same with Walker Jenkins or Emmy Rodriguez?  

[MinnInPa]

only Duran would bring anyone worth making a difference....any of the others we would just be getting more AAA claiber players..  pass ...these players wouldnt help any team push for the playoffs

[Trov]

No way should you look to move Lewis right now, unless a team blows you away with an offer, but with his value about as low as can be no way.  No player is untouchable but bad moves trading guys at their low point in value. 

In terms of the corner OF they have little value.  Wallner right now not hitting, so he has little value and Larnach has been fine, but not elite.  Neither will net anything other than a middle pen guy that is just above a DFA pickup, or a low level lottery ticket prospect. Unless you are an elite hitter at corner OF, they are a dime a dozen.  Even elite fielding corner guys are easy to replace. Yes, Wallner has shown elite power when he is on, so a team may take a flier on him, but knowing he will not net much, unless a team really thinks they can get him right again and willing to over pay for him.  I get we have plenty of guys that can fill in, but that is my point, so do many other teams. 

Jax or Duran would be selling moves, not reshuffling moves.  If the team thinks they can make the playoffs you do not trade elite pen guys because in the playoffs you need them more than any other time. You need to make sure you can lock down as many innings as you can.  It is not just about the 9th, it is about knowing that if your starter can go 5 or 6 solid, you got guys that will lock down the end. If either get traded the team is saying, we are selling, unless you can get a guy in return that is close and can replace and add some prospects.  However, why would a team have a guy that is nearly as good as what we are giving up in a trade? 

[Mahoning]

It's curious to me that so many people are eager to cast off France, Bader, and Paddack. France leads the team in Hits  and is playing a perfectly fine 1B. Bader provides speed and defense (see yesterday's game); Paddack gives his all every start. I would wrap those guys up with modest extensions, if they were willing. That would also raise their trade value. Trading Duran makes sense, and Rushing would be a dream.

 

Otherwise, I think they should do nothing, hope that some players raise their trade value with good second halfs, then plan for next year. The trade deadline should not be, in itself, a trigger.

[Doctor Gast]

Very interesting & complicated subject with a lot of variables.

We had a great core of Correa, Buxton, Lopez, Ryan, Lewis, Castro, Duran, & Jax with a decent support core that did well in the '23 postseason. The '24 & '25 Twins' goal should have been to build off that core & make sure we were deep, strong & healthy up the middle & the rotation. Julien was their choice to man the keystone, 1st mistake. 2nd, they did not replace Sonny Gray. 3rd, they didn't allow the internal support core to grow. 4th, no viable 3rd catcher to support a worn-down catching position

'24 & '25 were failures. Should we continue to tinker with the core? My gut says no. But the Twins need a new identity, so I'm open to trading support core either Wallner or Larnach or Duran if we are confident that we have someone who can competently step in to replace them. I'd be reluctantly open to trading Castro if we can't extend him. Reluctantly, because he provides good depth at crucial positions. #1 priority is to obtain a promising MLB-ready 3rd catcher. Can we trust Falvey to pull off such a trade? If not we should hold until an ownership/ FO change.

 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

The Baseball Trade Values Trade Simulator says that Duran has a surplus value of 19.1 and Rushing 43.1. According to that simulator, that trade isn't happening

I'd love to obtain Rushing, but he is expensive. Duran won't do it alone, but if LAD is interested in an additional player, that could get it done. Or go with a 3-way trade for a more affordable option.

[Western SD Fan]

5 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

It's curious to me that so many people are eager to cast off France, Bader, and Paddack. France leads the team in Hits  and is playing a perfectly fine 1B. Bader provides speed and defense (see yesterday's game); Paddack gives his all every start. I would wrap those guys up with modest extensions, if they were willing. That would also raise their trade value. Trading Duran makes sense, and Rushing would be a dream.

 

Otherwise, I think they should do nothing, hope that some players raise their trade value with good second halfs, then plan for next year. The trade deadline should not be, in itself, a trigger.

I'm not sure it's so much casting them off as it is just the reality of team that could be selling at the deadline.  Bader has a mutual agreement so there is a chance we could resign him next year.  My hope for Castro is we can do what the Tigers did with Flaherty; trade him to a contender with the understanding that we want to resign him in the offseason.  France may still be here at the end of the season as I don't see him having much trade value.  Paddack will likely want what the market will command as he is running out of years left in the MLB.  Even bad starters are getting $12-17M, which I think will be more than the Twins will be willing to pay as I would rather see that money go towards an extension on Ryan.

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Of course they are different players with far different past projections and hopes, but there was a similar comment last year about trading Julien. I would think Julien has seen a decline in his value from last year. Along those lines it is possible that Lewis can go much lower. 

Let us hope for a healed and healthy Royce Lewis playing at an effective level. However, I cannot predict the future.

For a pre-arbitration player, It's hard to decline past zero.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

It's curious to me that so many people are eager to cast off France, Bader, and Paddack. France leads the team in Hits  and is playing a perfectly fine 1B. Bader provides speed and defense (see yesterday's game); Paddack gives his all every start. I would wrap those guys up with modest extensions, if they were willing.

Extensions of players who are impending free agents are very rare. Those players will go to free agency and test the market. If the Twins want to bring them back, they will have their chance during the offseason. In the meantime, the only value they have for the franchise is as a trade chit.

[Dman]

I don't think Bader and Paddack bring back much.  If Bader could knock down a few more home runs and up that average a little he could be very valuable, but once again his bat is dragging down his value.

Paddack has pitched poorly, really well and then poorly again and might be back to pitching well.  I would try to sell him as an elite pen arm\long man to teams.  His lack of consistency will bring down his price if anyone wants him at all.

Coulombe should fetch something good.  He has litterly been the definition of shut down lefty.  They brought him into the toughest situations and he has wriggled them out of a lot of tough spots.  That feels like top 10 prospect territory to me.

Castro also should bring back great value.  his near .800 OPS puts him just outside the top 50 for qualified MLB hitters, he can play multiple positions well and give you a decent bat.  If you want injury insurance for your playoff run I'd say Castro is a better version of what Zobrist was and he commanded a lot when traded.

One of Larnach and Wallner need to go.  Whether it is Rodriguez or Gonazalez or Keaschael or eventually Jenkins.  Someone is taking that spot.  I don't know if they can get anything for him at the deadline.  Might have to wait for the offseason but someone has to go and I think Larnach is the one.

While I know Lewis can hurt his hamstring tying his shoe. Selling at a low point with so many years of control left for so little money just doesn't make sense.  At worst he is just a sunk cost at this point at best he rebounds and the Twins have a good cheap player.

I don't love the idea of trading Duran, but if he can get one or two differencing making assets I would do it.  Not all that long ago the Cubs traded their number one Prospect to the Yankee's for a dominant lefty closer.  I would think Duran alone or Duran and pieces should be able to get something similar.  He is in his prime.  It is a big durable body that can throw 100 if he wants to.  He has 3 years of control left counting this year.  That should command a lot.

[NYCTK]

This team is putrid. No one is untouchable. 

An attempt at being timid sellers in an effort to be an 85 win team in 2026 is a half measure. Play for 2027. If you don't think a player will be a major contributing player in 2027, try to ship them off. 

I keep hearing so much about this incredible pitching pipeline. You know what that does? That means Joe Ryan's last year of control (and $12-15M salary) aren't that valuable. Same goes for Ober, Duran, Jax, and Stewart. Any failure to shop them is malpractice. 

Jeffers is a free agent come '27, which means the Twins should shop him. Larnach would be last year of control and is IMHO already a non tender candidate. Shop him. 

The Blue Jays and Marlins shipped off 8 guys last trade deadline. That should be the expectation for this team. 

This core failed, so it's time to change direction. 

No half measures. 

[arby58]

59 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I would be interested to hear why you think Wallner is untouchable.  He has produced .2 WAR at this point of the season.  He was very good last year so I understand that prospective but untouchable?   

I meant to say Jeffers, not Wallner. The other catching options are worse - he has comparative advantage. BTW, Baseball Reference has him at 0.5 WAR for the year; Vazquez is 0.1 , is six years older and a free agent after this year. Who else do you think will get you positive WAR?

[arby58]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The point was that player values are messy and it is arguable that Julien and Lewis have lost value since the 2023 season and Wallner has lost value since last season. The Twins are a risk adverse organization so I don't think anyone needs to worry about losing their favored players. The Arraez-Lopez trade was an exception.

I also stated that I have no idea how players are valued by either the Twins or any other team. The thought (not suggestion) of the Dodger trade now was wondering if the Twins would use current players with perceived high values.

Just curious why you named Matt Wallner as untouchable or did you mean there would be no interest in him from any other teams?

Sorry, meant to say Jeffers.