5 Major Trade Candidates if Twins Decide to Reshuffle Their Core

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd love to obtain Rushing, but he is expensive. Duran won't do it alone, but if LAD is interested in an additional player, that could get it done. Or go with a 3-way trade for a more affordable option.

While it may be a thing that the Twins may have to add a player to acquire Rushing for Duran or Jax, it is also noteworthy that BTV has been wildly off on a ton of valuations. Really this is completely up to how the Dodgers view our relievers.

[shimrod]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

and a couple of oft-injured pitchers (River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan)

Twins FO just perked up. 

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Then Jenkins isn't nearly as good of a prospect as has been hyped and Rodriguez isn't a prospect at all.

Walker Jenkins has less than 100 PAs at AA and hasn't really impressed at that level yet. I am still very high on him, but don't expect him to be a savior in 1 year's time. 

As for Rodriguez...I just refuse to get hyped over a prospect with a K rate higher than Matt Wallner. In almost 200 PAs now, his K rate is over 35% at AAA. Which to me kind of suggests he's going to need even more time to get acclimated to major league pitching, making him a very frustrating player initially, even if he is a great defensive player which I continue not to be sold on.

So, yeah, I don't expect Rodriguez to be much of a contributor next year. Fingers crossed for '27 though. 

[Mike Sixel]

The twins have two lhh.... What is this obsession with RH batters?

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Mahoning said:

It's curious to me that so many people are eager to cast off France, Bader, and Paddack. France leads the team in Hits  and is playing a perfectly fine 1B. Bader provides speed and defense (see yesterday's game); Paddack gives his all every start. I would wrap those guys up with modest extensions, if they were willing. That would also raise their trade value. Trading Duran makes sense, and Rushing would be a dream.

 

Otherwise, I think they should do nothing, hope that some players raise their trade value with good second halfs, then plan for next year. The trade deadline should not be, in itself, a trigger.

I start with the premise that this year's team is unlikely to make the payoffs and even more unlikely to do anything if they squeak in. In my view, we are playing for next year more than this year.

If you start there, trading France, Bader, Paddack and Castro makes a lot of sense since they are on expiring contracts. They are assets that cease being assets when the WS ends. As I said on another thread, I would try to re-sign all but France now and trade them if you can't re-sign them or at least think you will in the offseason, France is a nice player, very average in pretty much every way.  That;s why Seattle cut him and he's the same guy in MN that he was in Seattle. 1B is the position that is in most need of an offensive upgrade. We have to do better for next year. 

The other reason to trade these guys is to open up playing time for others to see what you actually have for next year. Keaschall, Lewis, Lee, Larnach, and Wallner need to play every day if we're switching the core. Castro would be a nice addition to that core for the right price and we don't have a CF replacement for Bader so re-signing those two makes some sense at the right price. Matthews needs to pitch every 5th day and frankly Festa and SWR should too. These things don't happen if we have vets on expiring contracts playing out a non-competitive season. Maybe we get lucky and have a Detroit like run, maybe we fall on our faces. either way we learn a lot. We have to do this sometime, let's do it now.  

[The Great Hambino]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The twins have two lhh.... What is this obsession with RH batters?

Duh - LH hitters come unglued when facing a LHP, while RH hitters can comfortably face pitchers of any handedness

[Doctor Gast]

33 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

While it may be a thing that the Twins may have to add a player to acquire Rushing for Duran or Jax, it is also noteworthy that BTV has been wildly off on a ton of valuations. Really this is completely up to how the Dodgers view our relievers.

True T&R,  players' trade value will vary depending on the needs of each team. I'm not going by BTV, Rushing has been hyped up, IMO, LAD knows that they can get a boatload for Rushing & they are holding on to him for that special trade. Otherwise, he'd be gone by now, because he's blocked at catcher. If LAD comes knocking on the door. My 1st question is "How much do you want for Rushing?" & try to get the best deal. But Twins haven't done that well with LAD trades.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Pitchers get injured. I'm betting on a team not having 100% health. Next year it might be Lopez again. Or it might be Duran. Or maybe Ryan again. 

A pitcher missing 3 months is hardly unexpected. 

Current pitching injuries 78 starters are o the 60 day, 40 with elbow or forearms listed as their injury.  16 are on the 15 day. Only 44 relievers are on the 60 day, 37 on the 15

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, BrokenCompass said:

So let me get this straight. You're saying the Twins should keep Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Correa, Buxton, and Lewis. And probably Wallner and Castro.

"Everyone else can be had for the right price" - what the heck's left? Nobody's giving up anything for players in the garbage pile of a 40-45 team. Sure, the Twins can sell off Ty France and Trevor Larnach and Harrison Bader, but they're not going to get more than a couple of A-ball lottery tickets for these guys. 

If you are expecting the Twins to get real prospects who can legitimately make an impact in the league for years to come, you've got to part with your good players. 

I think you need to read my entire post, instead of cherry-picking parts that fit your narrative.

I said keeping those 6/7 players will give the Twins a chance to be competitive. I also inferred that (IMO) trading off all of your best pieces would not be in the best interest of a team sale. Unless ownership dictates it, don't expect any major decisions one way or the other.

The guys I do advocate moving: Duran and Larnach, followed by Bader, Paddack and Castro (if they do not expect to retain him) would bring more back than A-ball lottery guys.

I said that an argument could be made for keeping Wallner and Castro, not that they were untouchable. As much as In would like to see Castro extended, as a soon-to-be FA, the likelihood is small.

It sounds like you believe the only option is a complete tear-down of the team, moving every player with value, and let the Twins languish at 70 wins for the next 3-5 years while they attempt to rebuild. I can respect that, I just don't agree with it. I doubt that a team buyer would be interested in that as well.

The Twins are in the middle of a strong youth movement at the moment: Lee, Keaschall, Festa, Matthews, Varland, with another 4-6 guys that are 1-2 years away. I would rather the team be somewhat competitive while they roll these guys in than be terrible.

[Wedman13]

5 hours ago, BrokenCompass said:

You have to look at this from the buyer's perspective. If you're a 1st or 2nd place team, are you desperate for a Matt Wallner or a Trevor Larnach to bat in the heart of your order right now? Probably not. They'd likely be platoon players or pinch hitters. Twins won't see much return for that. 

I don't think anyone's buying Royce Lewis, nor should the Twins sell when he's at rock bottom in his career. 

The Twins are really going to get a haul for Buxton or Joe Ryan, and maybe something for Duran. If you want a true rebuild, those are the guys are going to help with the foundation. The rest of the team is just window dressing. 

 

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

In November of 2023 a trade of Royce Lewis to Seattle may have returned Bryan Woo. Would a trade now net Harry Ford? 

In a similar vein would Pittsburgh have listened to an offer of Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien for Chandler last November? What is Wallner's market today?

The two players who have value from the article are Duran and Jax. The Dodgers have so many pitchers. Could they be enticed to give up Dalton Rushing and a couple of oft-injured pitchers (River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan) for Griffin Jax, Christian Vazquez, and Emmanuel Rodriguez?

I have no idea what value the Twins place on players, much less how other teams view the Twins organization. I believe the Twins will stand pat, but I don't know if the last year has had any effect on the plan. Maybe it has but maybe it makes no difference.

This post nailed it.  Buxton, Ryan, Duran.  That's the value.  No contender would give a bag of chips for Larnach, Wallner, Bader, etc...

[Wedman13]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I would be interested to hear why you think Wallner is untouchable.  He has produced .2 WAR at this point of the season.  He was very good last year so I understand that prospective but untouchable?   

The value posters here put on Wallner is so extreme.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

 

This post nailed it.  Buxton, Ryan, Duran.  That's the value.  No contender would give a bag of chips for Larnach, Wallner, Bader, etc...

While I'm hopelessly wishing the Twins find a way to score runs and wishing their players well, I'm totally flummoxed by those who see value to contending teams in many of the Twins. I would add Jax to the list of the 3 above. 

Maybe I should waste some time from 1-2 am looking to see if any team could use any of the other players. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

Duh - LH hitters come unglued when facing a LHP, while RH hitters can comfortably face pitchers of any handedness

75 percent of pitchers are RH. And the twins have two LHH ... Two. Very polite tone though. 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

The value posters here put on Wallner is so extreme.

He's been thirty to forty percent above league average as a hitter. That's not valuable?

[LA Vikes Fan]

One suggestion that interests me is to see if there's a market for Correa. Maybe trade him to NYY for Volpe or Lombard plus a real hitting or pitching, prospect at the AAA or AAA level, 1B or C preferred, although the Yankees don't really have any 1B prospect other than Ben Rice who is likely unavailable. The Mets might be another option. It's a timeline issue. Correa's got maybe through 2027 to be a real contributor. He may need to go to another team to be in contention in 2025 or 2026 so he may be open to the right kind of trade. I don't know that he has a lot of value outside of NY or LA given his contract, but it's certainly something worth exploring. . 

[Wedman13]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I think you need to read my entire post, instead of cherry-picking parts that fit your narrative.

I said keeping those 6/7 players will give the Twins a chance to be competitive. I also inferred that (IMO) trading off all of your best pieces would not be in the best interest of a team sale. Unless ownership dictates it, don't expect any major decisions one way or the other.

The guys I do advocate moving: Duran and Larnach, followed by Bader, Paddack and Castro (if they do not expect to retain him) would bring more back than A-ball lottery guys.

I said that an argument could be made for keeping Wallner and Castro, not that they were untouchable. As much as In would like to see Castro extended, as a soon-to-be FA, the likelihood is small.

It sounds like you believe the only option is a complete tear-down of the team, moving every player with value, and let the Twins languish at 70 wins for the next 3-5 years while they attempt to rebuild. I can respect that, I just don't agree with it. I doubt that a team buyer would be interested in that as well.

The Twins are in the middle of a strong youth movement at the moment: Lee, Keaschall, Festa, Matthews, Varland, with another 4-6 guys that are 1-2 years away. I would rather the team be somewhat competitive while they roll these guys in than be terrible.

You had me until Varland?

[NYCTK]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's been thirty to forty percent above league average as a hitter. That's not valuable?

Not if you don't think it's repeatable. I neither think he's as good a hitter as he was last season, nor as bad a hitter as he's been thus far this season. But I think a .230/.350/.450 hitter is obviously playable, but it really limits the value when he's a DH thrown into the field. 

I think he's fine. And a nice role player for a legitimate team, but I wouldn't shed a tear if he were traded away. 

[NYCTK]

12 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

One suggestion that interests me is to see if there's a market for Correa. Maybe trade him to NYY for Volpe or Lombard plus a real hitting or pitching, prospect at the AAA or AAA level, 1B or C preferred, although the Yankees don't really have any 1B prospect other than Ben Rice who is likely unavailable. The Mets might be another option. It's a timeline issue. Correa's got maybe through 2027 to be a real contributor. He may need to go to another team to be in contention in 2025 or 2026 so he may be open to the right kind of trade. I don't know that he has a lot of value outside of NY or LA given his contract, but it's certainly something worth exploring. . 

Trading away Correa isn't bring back anything much of value. The value of trading away Correa is getting a mediocre player on a bad contract off of your payroll. 

Mets aren't going to be very interested in adding Correa. Buxton on the other hand, they'd likely trade away 2 of their top 4 prospects, if not 3. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree with Bigfork in the sense that absent a sale, it's unlikely anything much is going to happen. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

13 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Trading away Correa isn't bring back anything much of value. The value of trading away Correa is getting a mediocre player on a bad contract off of your payroll. 

Mets aren't going to be very interested in adding Correa. Buxton on the other hand, they'd likely trade away 2 of their top 4 prospects, if not 3. 

Not sure I agree with you IF there is a real need at SS on a contending team. There might be that need for the Yankees. Correa would stabilize SS on defense for them and they don't need his bat to play higher than 6 or 7 in the lineup. He would actually improve that team playing instead of Volpe. The question is whether they would give up someone like Volpe plus a prospect or a good prospect plus a solid one. Not sure that Correa could fetch that but it's worth inquiring. LA and the Mets have no real need so they wouldn't be willing to pay much. 

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Not sure I agree with you IF there is a real need at SS on a contending team. There might be that need for the Yankees. Correa would stabilize SS on defense for them and they don't need his bat to play higher than 6 or 7 in the lineup. He would actually improve that team playing instead of Volpe. The question is whether they would give up someone like Volpe plus a prospect or a good prospect plus a solid one. Not sure that Correa could fetch that but it's worth inquiring. LA and the Mets have no real need so they wouldn't be willing to pay much. 

LOL. Fans have to be way better than this. Volpe is arguably a better player than Correa right now. Why would they trade Volpe for Correa unless they're betting heavily on a nebulous "veteran presence" premium? And you're here asking for Volpe AND a legit prospect? 

If the Yankees were trading for Correa, it'd not be to replace Volpe, it'd be to play 3rd and move Jazz to 2nd. So, if you want Oswald Pereza, I guess that'd be possible. 

But I repeat, there's not really any value coming back to the Twins in the event they trade Correa. He's a 2-3 WAR player on the wrong side of 30 that's owed $108 Million for the next 3.3 seasons of service. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

While I'm hopelessly wishing the Twins find a way to score runs and wishing their players well, I'm totally flummoxed by those who see value to contending teams in many of the Twins. I would add Jax to the list of the 3 above. 

Maybe I should waste some time from 1-2 am looking to see if any team could use any of the other players. 

I am already seeing Castro and Stewart in mock trades on other sites.

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

Duh - LH hitters come unglued when facing a LHP, while RH hitters can comfortably face pitchers of any handedness

There is no question that left vs left is the worst statistical matchup in regards to the platoon advantage. It is also true that left vs RHP is historically the best statistical matchup in baseball. 

It is not necessarily true that RH hitters can comfortably face any handedness. It's a 69 point drop. 

Here are the all time OPS Numbers: 

RHB vs RHP - .712 

RHB vs LHP - .781  

LHB vs RHP - .799 

LHB vs LHP - .687 

If 72% of pitching is RHP and 28% is LHP and you took those historical numbers X 72 and X 28 appropriately.

An all right hand lineup would historically produce .730 OPS against all major league pitching and an all left hand lineup would produce a .767 OPS against all major league pitching. It's better to have an all left handed lineup compared to an all right handed lineup.  

Now I get it. You can only safely platoon 3 spots taking up 6 roster spots to play the advantage and teams do that. Actually 4 if you have a right handed hitting catcher like Jeffers and you want to get him involved at the DH position in this whole platoon mess. Most teams don't do that... So we will stick with three.   

On Paper those 6 roster spots/3 lineup spots can historically average out to .793 collectively if fully utilized but that still you leaves you with 6 spots in the order not platooned where the left handed hitter has the advantage over the right handed hitter. 

So... In a nutshell from a historical standpoint... the perfect platoon system to play the numbers correctly to full advantage. Would consist of 9 left handed hitters and 4 short side right handed hitters if you carry a catching platoon split tandem. 10 LH Hitters and 3 Right Handed hitters if you don't.  

That of course... is just based on historical averages.

It is not based on the individual player... in order to have an average... you have players above that line and players below that line. Just because the historical average of LHB vs LHP is .687 doesn't mean you can't have a player who does better than that if allowed to. 

Those historical averages also don't account for injuries that blow the whole thing up. If you staff 3 short side platoon players to face only left handed hitters. Injuries will take those limitations away and now you have right handed hitters facing more right handed pitching than left handed pitching. This immediately negates the careful planned platoon advantage strategy. 

The easiest solution to all of these numbers is this: JUST GET HITTERS WHO CAN HIT! Left/Right it doesn't matter. In the case of a tie... take the left handed hitter over the right handed hitter Or... Or... Just get nothing but switch hitters and you'll never have to think about any of this ever again.       

[USAFChief]

11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

There is no question that left vs left is the worst statistical matchup in regards to the platoon advantage. It is also true that left vs RHP is historically the best statistical matchup in baseball. 

It is not necessarily true that RH hitters can comfortably face any handedness. It's a 69 point drop. 

Here are the all time OPS Numbers: 

RHB vs RHP - .712 = 51.2 

RHB vs LHP - .781 = 21.8 = 73.0 

LHB vs RHP - .799   = 57.5

LHB vs LHP - .687 = 19.2 = 76.7

If 72% of pitching is RHP and 28% is RHP and you took those historical numbers X 72 and X 28 appropriately.

An all right hand lineup would historically produce .730 OPS against all major league pitching and an all left hand lineup would produce a .767 OPS against all major league pitching. It's better to have an all left handed lineup compared to an all right handed lineup.  

Now I get it. You can only safely platoon 3 spots taking up 6 roster spots to play the advantage and teams do that. Actually 4 if you have a right handed hitting catcher like Jeffers and you want to get him involved at the DH position in this whole platoon mess. Most teams don't do that... So we will stick with three.   

On Paper those 6 roster spots/3 lineup spots can historically average out to .793 collectively if fully utilized but that still you leaves you with 6 spots in the order not platooned where the left handed hitter has the advantage over the right handed hitter. 

So... In a nutshell from a historical standpoint... the perfect platoon system to play the numbers correctly to full advantage. Would consist of 10 Left Handed Hitters and 3 Short Side Right Handed hitters. 

That of course... is just based on historical averages.

It is not based on the individual player... in order to have an average... you have players above that line and players below that line. Just because the historical average of LHB vs LHP is .687 doesn't mean you can't have a player who does better than that if allowed to. 

 

Those historical averages also don't account for injuries that blow the whole thing up. If you staff 3 short side platoon players to face only left handed hitters. Injuries will take those limitations away and now you have right handed hitters facing more right handed pitching than left handed pitching. This immediately negates the careful planned platoon advantage strategy. 

The easiest solution to all of these numbers is this: JUST GET HITTERS WHO CAN HIT! Left/Right it doesn't matter. In the case of a tie... take the left handed hitter over the right handed hitter Or... Or... Just get nothing but switch hitters and you'll never have to think about any of this ever again.       

Maybe adjust your sarcasmeter.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Maybe adjust your sarcasmeter.

On this subject. I'm pretty pegged

[Vanimal46]

It’s the unpopular opinion, but it might be time for a sit down with Buxton. And ask if he really wants to spend the rest of his prime playing career on a team due to rebuild. Or if he wants to be an impact player on a true contender? 

That seems fair from a professional courtesy standpoint. There are several contenders that would love to acquire him… Mets, Yankees, Braves, Phillies 

[The Great Hambino]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

75 percent of pitchers are RH. And the twins have two LHH ... Two. Very polite tone though. 

To be clear, I was being sarcastic.  Thought I was making it clear with the duh, apparently I wasn't.

 

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

To be clear, I was being sarcastic.  Thought I was making it clear with the duh, apparently I wasn't.

 

Got it. Sorry for missing that!

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s the unpopular opinion, but it might be time for a sit down with Buxton. And ask if he really wants to spend the rest of his prime playing career on a team due to rebuild. Or if he wants to be an impact player on a true contender? 

That seems fair from a professional courtesy standpoint. There are several contenders that would love to acquire him… Mets, Yankees, Braves, Phillies 

I'm not sure anything matters until CC and Lewis are gone. 22 percent of the lineup not hitting ever, and they can't plan around Lewis s health. But I'd likely feel him for a huge package. But I'd not be happy about it. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

On this subject. I'm pretty pegged

This one goes to 11.