5 Major Trade Candidates if Twins Decide to Reshuffle Their Core

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This one goes to 11.

One of the greatest movie lines of all time. Delivered perfectly by Nigel Tufnel. 

[DocBauer]

I'm really sorry, but for once I just don't have the time or mental strength to sit down and read everything presented here. Very unlike me, but it is what it is.

The Twins are in a weird place where we can debate a future owner, vs how much longer the Pohlads are in charge. Do the new owners, assuming new ownership in the next 6 months, recognize some really good things the current FO has done over the years and want to assist them more? Do they mostly sit pat and see what the FO does for 2026 and then make a decision? Or do they come in with sweeping changes?

Personally, I believe a new ownership should stick with what's in place and evaluate what's on hand. IMO, history has shown that's the smart way to take over any business. For instance, I think the Johnson lead scouting and draft department is really good. Falvey has implemented a lot of good changes throughout the MILB system. What might the current FO do with a little more $ flexibility initially.

Falvey has always looked to the present, as well as the future. He's NEVER done a Dombroski move of trading away a ton of prospects for a short term gain. Of course, he's also never had a huge wallet to add a lot in FA the way Dombroski had had either.

I don't oppose making moves. Maybe the Twins can trade and still add. But honestly, what does moving Bader, Paddack, and France really bring back prospect wise? Nothing more than a couple A level players.

You really want to trade away Duran, Jax, whoever? You want a complete rebuild? How has that worked in the past? How has that worked for the Orioles, the most recent team I can think of. It took YEARS to be viable again. But not every prospect has turned out, and they have no pitching. Their complete teardown hasn't really provided the results they wanted. And I'm even going to bring up the A's as any sort of example.

I trust the character of Falvey in regard to the long term outlook of the Twins. That's ALWAYS been his approach. And I have no doubt IF he made a grade or two, it would be in the best future of the Twins. But he also knows his butt is on the line, and he's not going to do something stupid for the Twins, or his own reputation. 

Current ownership is NOT going to add payroll, barring a huge surprise. And Falvey is just not going to tear things down. It's just not his nature.

Much like 2023, this team, despite being constructed weirdly, has a chance to rebound. If Matthews comes back decently, if SWR KEEPS looking solid, if Festa can find the consistency he showed in 2024, the rotation isn't sunk until Lopez returns. 

If Royce and Wallner and Correa suddenly remember who they are, things change offensively.

A lot of IF'S to be certain. But the Twins were hovering about .500 in 2023. Then they went on a run. Similar to 2023, this current team had a bad beginning, then a hot streak, and then finished poorly.

I am ABSOLUTELY against any kind up blowup and rebuild. Even my reluctant love for the Vikings being cursed has shown my recently that smart decisions can make a rebuild on the fly makes sense. The problem with the Twins is WHO IN THE HELL IS GOING TO OWN THEM IN 6 MONTHS.

And that's a difference in the trade deadlines. Falvey won't sacrifice a team he might be in charge of a year from now. And with a whole half season to play yet, how could you dismiss Festa and SWR improving and Matthews back and Lopez back in August? How about Lewis, and Waller and Correa getting their crap together? Keaschall back maybe making a difference? 

There's still a chance this team actually realizes their potential. But if they don't, and just cave over the next few weeks, I don't think this team is devoid of talent. But I'd rather follow the Brewers attitude and just let the kids play. Let Ohl and Adams have their shot. Go ahead and let Rodriguez get a shot of he's healthy. Maybe promote Kline from AA. 

If it's not working, change what you're doing.

I'm not saying the 2025 Twins are awful and destined for failure. There's a legitimate chance this team rebounds with the talent on hand. But I can also see a 2026 team that might need 2025 to get ready.

[purplesoldier4u]

Other than Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez, I'm not sure there are any players another team would give up premium talent for.

[Doctor Wu]

23 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The two players who have value from the article are Duran and Jax.

Yep, that's really about all of value we have to offer, at least without foolishly trading away a Ryan, Lopez, or Buxton. I imagine that at least one of those bullpen guys WILL be traded before the end of the month. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

18 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

You had me until Varland?

You could easily make an argument that Varland has been their 2nd best RP this season. Strong relievers are often failed starters. Varland belongs in the discussion.

[D.C Twins]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Yep, that's really about all of value we have to offer, at least without foolishly trading away a Ryan, Lopez, or Buxton. I imagine that at least one of those bullpen guys WILL be traded before the end of the month. 

Castro absolutely has value... you will be pleasantly surprised by the return!

[mluebker]

Unless you believe in miracles, "within striking distance of a playoff spot" shouldn't be a factor in whether the Twins should be sellers. I don't know anyone who believes this Twins team could go all the way, so all a playoff slot would do is put a little extra money in everyone's pocket before the inevitable disappointment.

At this point, it makes more sense to do a strategic trade or two that might actually strengthen the team next year. I usually bitterly oppose trading pitching, but Duran? Sure. Maybe he even gets to pitch for a team that goes all the way.

On the other hand, better to keep Willi Castro as the one jack-of-all-trades teams need these days. But the rest?

Any deal that could be made to get a reliable, bona fide, every-day starter at pretty much any position in the infield except short would be a big step in the right direction. No more guys journeymen who are adequate at a handful of positions but not good enough to be a regular at any of them. We've see how that works out.

[dxpavelka]

On 7/3/2025 at 7:11 AM, BrokenCompass said:

You have to look at this from the buyer's perspective. If you're a 1st or 2nd place team, are you desperate for a Matt Wallner or a Trevor Larnach to bat in the heart of your order right now? Probably not. They'd likely be platoon players or pinch hitters. Twins won't see much return for that. 

I don't think anyone's buying Royce Lewis, nor should the Twins sell when he's at rock bottom in his career. 

The Twins are really going to get a haul for Buxton or Joe Ryan, and maybe something for Duran. If you want a true rebuild, those are the guys are going to help with the foundation. The rest of the team is just window dressing. 

1st or 2nd place teams generally aren't looking for bats for the heart of their order right now.   They are in 1st or 2nd place because they already have those bats.  They are looking for depth and role players and situational hitting of some sort or a guy who can get hot for them at just the right time.  The right team with the right need might well give something useful.  Not gonna get a Juan Soto type return but should get something.  Need to make sure we're not making trades just to make trades though.

 

[gman]

I'm pretty sure the thought of leaving has occurred to Correa already. He has a big check coming no matter where he goes, I'm sure he realizes the career hi-lites he's missing by staying in Minnesota. I wouldn't doubt he's been expected to get traded to a contender since he signed the contract. He wanted the guaranteed money first.

Probably Buxton has had similar thoughts, maybe not as long. He's knew he needed to be able to stay healthy first. You don't see him trying to plow into fences as much as he used too. Big plus, is as opposed to Correa, is that Buxton only gets paid amounts equal to a very mediocre starting outfielder unless he has a tremendous season.

[NYCTK]

22 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

All of this discussion regarding a rebuild is nonsense unless the team is sold first.  I have a strong feeling that nothing of significance happens at the trade deadline this year because the owners will not want to do anything that could diminish the sale price.

Nothing done with the roster is going to have any effect on the sales price. 

Unless they take on Xander Boegarts contract I guess. That is a healthy additional debt. 

[harmony55]

On 7/3/2025 at 5:22 AM, tony&rodney said:

In November of 2023 a trade of Royce Lewis to Seattle may have returned Bryan Woo. Would a trade now net Harry Ford? 

In a similar vein would Pittsburgh have listened to an offer of Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien for Chandler last November? What is Wallner's market today?

The two players who have value from the article are Duran and Jax. The Dodgers have so many pitchers. Could they be enticed to give up Dalton Rushing and a couple of oft-injured pitchers (River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan) for Griffin Jax, Christian Vazquez, and Emmanuel Rodriguez?

I have no idea what value the Twins place on players, much less how other teams view the Twins organization. I believe the Twins will stand pat, but I don't know if the last year has had any effect on the plan. Maybe it has but maybe it makes no difference.

Podcaster Jim Riley has proposed a trade of Royce Lewis to Seattle for catcher Harry Ford:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8k19YrZ2JA

... at 15:55.

Currently holding the final AL Wild Card slot, would Seattle consider Royce Lewis an upgrade over rookie Ben Williamson, a glove-first third baseman (with an RBI double in Saturday's 1-0 win)?

This year Lewis has posted 0.1 fWAR and a 74 wRC+ in 35 games while Williamson has posted 0.5 fWAR and a 79 wRC+ in 66 games. FanGraphs projects Lewis with 1.1 WAR and a 108 wRC+ in 55 remaining games while projecting Williamson with 0.5 WAR and an 85 wRC+ in 41 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/royce-lewis/20437/stats?position=3B

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/benjamin-williamson/33197/stats?position=3B

Baseball Trade Values assigns Lewis a surplus value of $15.5 million and Ford a surplus value of $19.4 million.

Could the Mariners find a better return for Ford?

 

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Podcaster Jim Riley has proposed a trade of Royce Lewis to Seattle for catcher Harry Ford:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8k19YrZ2JA

... at 15:55.

Currently holding the final AL Wild Card slot, would Seattle consider Royce Lewis an upgrade over rookie Ben Williamson, a glove-first third baseman (with an RBI double in Saturday's 1-0 win)?

This year Lewis has posted 0.1 fWAR and a 74 wRC+ in 35 games while Williamson has posted 0.5 fWAR and a 79 wRC+ in 66 games. FanGraphs projects Lewis with 1.1 WAR and a 108 wRC+ in 55 remaining games while projecting Williamson with 0.5 WAR and an 85 wRC+ in 41 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/royce-lewis/20437/stats?position=3B

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/benjamin-williamson/33197/stats?position=3B

Baseball Trade Values assigns Lewis a surplus value of $15.5 million and Ford a surplus value of $19.4 million.

Could the Mariners find a better return for Ford?

 

Interesting. While I often watch a fair amount of minor league baseball in addition to the Twins, reality intervenes in the form of time and other responsibilities (which are less than ever in old age). Thus I don't pay any attention to BTV or bloggers, not that I have anything against such a practice. I prefer watching the players than clips, commentaries, and statistics, although one cannot help but be aware of various stats. My comment on the shifting values was more directed at how any team makes decisions about improving their ball team. I was a proponent of trading both Julien and Lewis at the close of the 2023 season only because I felt the Twins needed to upgrade their team and these two guys had sky high values relative to what I perceived as their future worth. I thought the same about Matt Wallner in November of 2024, but these crazy guesses were not popular and there is never any guarantee about returns. It's all wild speculation.

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Podcaster Jim Riley has proposed a trade of Royce Lewis to Seattle for catcher Harry Ford:

Vets with expiring contracts for prospects, not young talent for prospects.

[DannySD]

2026 is the last year with this affordable core of Ryan-Ober-Duran-Jax-Jeffers, so it makes sense to try to contend again with offensive upgrades around the edges and a prospect or two mixed in. It also seems to be the Twins way to trade them at next year's deadline, before their arb numbers get too high, and hope for the best return-wise.

2025 is a year to try new things. Trade Paddack, let Jax try the rotation for a couple months. Bring up offensive prospects for the stretch run. 

Lewis has two options, he should be in AAA just like everyone else if he's not producing, but there's no reason to trade him. Keashall, E-Rod, Martin, and others could all produce a higher OPS and comparable defense right now. 

I like the ideas of trading Larnach and Bader, and extending Willi Castro. Trade Castro only if he brings back something good (like a Joe Ryan type of deal). 

Castro, Coloumbe, maybe Paddack or Topa could bring back someone with a big league shot. 

If anyone is David Ortiz on this version of the Twins, it's Matt Wallner. Plus he's a local. 

 

 

[BrokenCompass]

On 7/4/2025 at 12:05 PM, dxpavelka said:

1st or 2nd place teams generally aren't looking for bats for the heart of their order right now.   They are in 1st or 2nd place because they already have those bats.  They are looking for depth and role players and situational hitting of some sort or a guy who can get hot for them at just the right time.  The right team with the right need might well give something useful.  Not gonna get a Juan Soto type return but should get something.  Need to make sure we're not making trades just to make trades though.

 

What are they going to give up for a pinch hitter? Just a couple single-A lottery tickets, just farm fodder. 

You want pieces that will be useful in the future, you gotta give up someone good. 

[dxpavelka]

35 minutes ago, BrokenCompass said:

What are they going to give up for a pinch hitter? Just a couple single-A lottery tickets, just farm fodder. 

You want pieces that will be useful in the future, you gotta give up someone good. 

You give up someone good you LOSE someone good.  You create new holes.  Far more often than not the team trading away the best player in the deal loses the trade.