Would Aaron Civale Be a Good Fit for Minnesota Twins Rotation?

[Matthew Lenz]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Brewers promoted top prospect Jacob Misiorowski this week, which resulted in a shuffling of their rotation. The odd man out was right-handed starter Aaron Civale, who has made five starts for the club this season. At 30 years old, Civale isn't ready to become a bullpen arm and has formally requested a trade from the club. He hopes to land with someone who has a spot in the rotation, per The Athletic.

As it turns out, their rivals just five hours east on Interstate 94 have a need in their rotation. After losing Pablo López and Zebby Matthews to injury, would it make sense for the Minnesota Twins to acquire Civale?

Civale has struggled even by the standards of a back of the rotation arm. He's only pitched 22 innings total in his five starts, though the brevity of those outings isn't totally his fault. The Brewers have a tendency to use a quick hook with their starters. In those innings, he's posted a 4.91 ERA with a 5.53 FIP and a lowly 12.8% strikeout minus walk rate. While he’s shown an ability to limit hard contact, he's been susceptible to the long ball, allowing five home runs in a small body of work. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher who pitches to contact, spacious Target Field (coupled with a solid outfield defense) would actually be a good fit for Civale.

The former Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians starter has seven pitches in his arsenal, with his cutter traditionally being most often used and best offering. However, that hasn't been the case thus far in 2025, as the pitch currently has a -3 run value (RV), his worst pitch, possibly due to a new shape that has less vertical drop compared to previous seasons. He also leans on a sinker (25.1% usage), 4-seam fastball (14%), and a curveball (13%) while mixing in an occasional slider, split-finger, or sweeper. Aside from his cutter in 2024, he's more than a year removed from any other pitch in his arsenal producing a positive RV. In short, there isn't a lot to be excited about with his profile, but the Twins may just be desperate enough to take a shot on a pitcher who has had success in the past.

Needing to replace López and Matthews in the big-league rotation, the Twins recalled David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson to take their places. Two weeks ago, the Twins had enough starting pitching that people started speculating whether they may turn some of their arms into big-league bats. Now, the Twins are one injury away from having to rely on an arm that either isn't ready for the majors (Andrew Morris or Cory Lewis) or one that hasn't sustained success (Randy Dobnak). While Civale may not be exciting, he may be needed more than we’d like to admit. Especially when considering the performance of our rotation of late.

Woods Richardson, who’s made one start since being recalled, was roughed up by a below-average Texas Rangers offense on Tuesday. In 4 ⅔ innings of work he gave up seven hits, six earned runs, and walked three while striking out four. His ERA now sits at 5.74 after struggling to start the season. While we don't want to overreact to a small sample, more concerning than Woods Richardson may be Bailey Ober. After a solid April and May, the towering righty has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two outings. The reason for concern, though, is his diminished velocity which started in Spring Training. His fastball velocity this season is down 1.2 miles per hour from 2024 and in his most recent start it was down an additional 0.3 miles per hour. He's made it work for the most part, though after today’s start he suggested he's “struggling with hip issues and mechanics.” Definitely something to keep an eye on.

On the other hand, Festa has been productive in four of his five starts with the Twins. He was knocked around by the Athletics when he was first recalled but that could possibly be chalked up to extenuating circumstances, like flying across the country on short notice to make a start. The big thing for Festa will be to consistently pitch relatively deep into ball games  - something that might be challenging for someone who has never pitched more than 124 innings in any one professional season.

Down on the farm, Morris has been inconsistent this season. In 11 starts with the Triple-A Saints, Morris has six with one earned or less but four starts with four earned runs or more. Lewis has been consistent in St. Paul, but not in the same way. Through nine appearances (six starts) the 25-year-old has a 9.42 ERA and 7.04 FIP. Finally, top prospect Marco Raya has also struggled with the Saints. While the Twins once were thought to have a plethora of pitching depth, that has been depleted in the matter of a week. One way or another, they're going to have to find depth externally and Civale may be just the right guy for the call.

No, Civale won't move the needle with Twins fans but it's hard not to see him as an upgrade over Woods Richardson. Given his production, profile, and contract it's likely he could be had for relatively cheap and the Twins would be remiss not to kick the tires on him.

Do you think the Twins should pursue the Civale? What would you give up for him? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Mark G]

I would guess that the coaches and trainers are evaluating Ober as we speak as to whether we can keep running him out there or shut him down for awhile.  If the decision is to put him on the shelf I would be in favor of a veteran arm to go with the young ones we will put in for the unknown future, depending on the cost, of course.  If nothing else he could share some experience with the younger ones and eat some innings that the pen doesn't need to eat.  

[Otaknam]

It’s worth a shot. SWR can’t be trusted, and, at best, can govern you 4-5 innings. If Civale can be acquired for a low level prospect, why not? That gives Morris, Lewis, and Raya more time to figure it out. And ,with his head scratching contract based on minimal success, isn’t a major league pitcher IMO. 

[Matthew Lenz]

44 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I would guess that the coaches and trainers are evaluating Ober as we speak as to whether we can keep running him out there or shut him down for awhile.  If the decision is to put him on the shelf I would be in favor of a veteran arm to go with the young ones we will put in for the unknown future, depending on the cost, of course.  If nothing else he could share some experience with the younger ones and eat some innings that the pen doesn't need to eat.  

Yep, I think that's the perspective to take. It's not exciting but if he can eat innings that's really what the Twins need right now to tread water.

[Coach Wheels]

43 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I would guess that the coaches and trainers are evaluating Ober as we speak as to whether we can keep running him out there or shut him down for awhile.  If the decision is to put him on the shelf I would be in favor of a veteran arm to go with the young ones we will put in for the unknown future, depending on the cost, of course.  If nothing else he could share some experience with the younger ones and eat some innings that the pen doesn't need to eat.  

I agree, Ober isn't right and hes most likely headed to the IL for rest if nothing else. 

A rotation without Pablo til late August (maybe) and Zeb, leaves Festa, Ryan, Paddock, and SWR as the guys; that's not good enough. Texas absolutely owned us for 18 innings this week, we need help

[MinnInPa]

worth a try ..just dont give up anybody worthy..maybe an A ball player batting .222

[IndianaTwin]

"His ERA now sits at 5.74 after struggling to start the season."

 

By "struggling to start the season," you mean that he had a single crummy start before going on the IL. In his four starts since coming off the IL he has a 3.32 ERA. 

-----------

EDIT: chpettit caught that I cut and pasted the wrong sentence. The part I just bolded is a summary of Civale's season. 

[tony&rodney]

First off, nobody is likely to say no to adding Civale if viewed in a vacuum. He could be ok pitching for the Twins or fail miserably. So adding a guy like Civale is worth a shot.

There are, however, notable obstacles. Do the Twins want to add any salary? Everyone will have their thoughts but my guess is "NO' on someone like Civale. Who are you going to send to Milwaukee? Julien or Miranda works for me. I just don't think Civale is worth any player or prospect of notable skills. I also find it hard to believe that Milwaukee will trade him for nothing. The Brewers will find someone willing to give them a usable player or prospect.

Salary and cost to acquire puts this as an extreme long shot. If I'm the Pohlads I say no. If the Pohlads say yes and I'm Falvey I offer Miranda and / or Julien.

[Patzky]

51 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

It’s worth a shot. SWR can’t be trusted, and, at best, can govern you 4-5 innings. If Civale can be acquired for a low level prospect, why not? That gives Morris, Lewis, and Raya more time to figure it out. And ,with his head scratching contract based on minimal success, isn’t a major league pitcher IMO. 

I'd like Civale like I liked Fedde when the Sox were shopping him. The second didn't happen and I don't see the first happening either.

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

"His ERA now sits at 5.74 after struggling to start the season."

 

By "struggling to start the season," you mean that he had a single crummy start before going on the IL. In his four starts since coming off the IL he has a 3.32 ERA. 

This stat is about SWR. And he's had more than 1 crummy start. And has had 0 IL stints this season. The Civale ERA was given earlier in the article.

[MMMordabito]

Cheap Pohlads probably won't allow it.

[DJL44]

He could probably add marginal value in the near-term over Woods-Richardson. However, when Zebby Matthews returns, SWR will be headed back to the minor leagues. Now you have Civale on the team, so they'll be forced to either cut their brand-new acquisition or send Festa down to the minors. In that situation you have a veteran re-tread blocking a more talented minor leaguer who might actually be part of the team's future. I've read thousands of words on Twins Daily from people who are really tired of seeing below average veterans block rookies from getting playing time.

They don't desperately need Civale right now, they'll probably need him even less later. If they happen to need a 5th starter in the future it shouldn't be that hard to find some other veteran off a bad team's roster.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

worth a try ..just dont give up anybody worthy..maybe an A ball player batting .222

Now this explains the Alcala trade.  The Twins traded Alcala for some trade bait to land Civale who will lead us to mediocrity.

[Road trip]

I suppose Civale is still better than Dobnak, and has a higher floor than an untested player like Morris, but given that he has a large contract and is going to cost some kind of prospect in a trade it is hard to be very enthused. 

If 2023 Civale is still in there somewhere he has value, but the past two years he's pitched like a #5 starter.  That isn't the type of player a financially stretched organization should invest a lot in when there are internal options that might be nearly as good.  If our internal options fail I'd rather trade a real prospect(s) for a pitcher that is a difference maker than invest capital in what looks like a pitcher on the downside of his career.

[thelanges5]

Civale going to ChiSox. Per John Heyman

[hitterscount]

He can put up numbers similar to what Ober did yesterday… so no thanks and thank you to the CWS for taking him. This is about to get ugly in a hurry. The offense is not going to help and the starting rotation is fading. As the competition in the next several series is getting tougher hanging around.500 would be a win.

[Greglw3]

I think they should aggressively try to strike a trade for him for someone like Aaron Sabato or Rubel Cespedes. Since he’s pitched better again with Milwaukee, I’d try to acquire him right now, then extend him 1 year with a team option for a 2nd year.

[Western SD Fan]

Welp.  This moved rather quickly.  I guess this comment is for the sake of the conversation.  I would have liked to see this trade happen.  Not only for the reasons stated above as an innings eater, an extra insurance policy for the rest of the staff in case they needed to put Ober on the IL or send SWR back down to St. Paul and hoping he could have been acquired cheaply.  I'm not sure how cheap he could have been acquired though as he is the only starter on the market today.  One final comment would have been the Twins could have used the same strategy they did with Jamie Garcia in 2017.  They traded for him when they thought they were in contention and when they thought they fell out of contention, they traded him again.  The Twins would have had a month to see whether they could figure it out, plenty of time to see if Civale would have stuck.

[Rosterman]

Yipes. White Sox grabbed him. Got rid of someone like, say, the Twins sending Milwaukee Miranda or Julien eprhaps.

 

Maybe the Twins should've grabbed ANTHONY DESCLAFANI WHO RCENTLY OPTED OUT AND SIGNED WITH ARIZONA. DOESN'T HE OWE US A BAG OF BALLS OR SOMETHING FROM LAST SEASON?

[LA Vikes Fan]

Moot point I guess if Civale is already going to the Pale Hose. Still, we're probably going to need somebody. I think Ober is looking at an IL stint soon to try to get his hip right. The Twins have 28 games left before the ASB break gives them 4 days off July 14-17. That's 5 starts from Ober's spot. May be he tries one more but I think he goes on the IL by at least June 20 to get a month off to get healthy.  

So who's that somebody? As the article points out, Lewis and Raya have been awful in AAA. McCaughan has been . . . ok?. . . and Dobnak pretty bad. I understand that Trane Baker just came up from AA but his stats there at least look promising. There some guys in AA with good stats, but I don't know anything about them. Do any of you  guys think any of them are ready?

Short of an overpay trade for Sandy Alcantra, it looks like we're going internal. My guess is McCaughan is going to get a chance unless Baker or Morris is deemed ready. Maybe McCaughan and Adams as an entry/piggyback for that spot? This could get ugly fast. Good thing we're hitting  . . .

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

This stat is about SWR. And he's had more than 1 crummy start. And has had 0 IL stints this season. The Civale ERA was given earlier in the article.

Oops -- I cut and pasted the wrong sentence! Thanks for the catch. 

 

The summary of Civale's season was correct, however -- a bad start, an IL stint and four starts with overall decent numbers, albeit in shortish starts. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Probably time to pull this off the top of the front page, with Civale going to the White Sox

[IndianaTwin]

10 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Probably time to pull this off the top of the front page, with Civale going to the White Sox

Agreed, though in going to the Sox, I'm guessing he's still on the market. Seems likely he'll get flipped again by the end of July. 

[TopGunn#22]

The fleeting opportunity to trade for Civale has passed.  Maybe they look at someone like Tyler Anderson from the Angels.  It would be nice to have ONE LH starting pitcher.  The problem with that is Anderson is in the final year of a contract that pays him $13 million this season.  The Twins would be picking up about half.  It's doubtful the Pohlad family would do that.  

I'm done with the SWR as a SP idea.  But I DO think he could be a reasonably effective middle relief-long man who comes in and pitches 2 or maybe even 3 innings.  If he's not on board with that (and at this stage of his career that's a clear possibility) then I would look to package him with Julien to get someone else's AAAA SP who would have more ability/ceiling than SWR.  

I think Festa and eventually Matthews will be fine as full time members of the Twins rotation.  But right now, the Twins need to IL Ober and get him healthy.  I wouldn't rush him back under any circumstances.  Ober is either our solid #3 in the rotation or the best option to trade to get something of significance.  Lopez and Ryan, to me are untouchable and big parts of future successful Twins teams.  

[Jeff K]

Sadly, there is trouble in paradise.  Amazing how the Twins went from a surplus of starters to needing help.  I think it's going to be a struggle until we get some starters back.  Ober certainly appears like he is going on the DL.  Twins are going to need Ryan, Paddack and Festa to step up to the plate.  Beyond those 3...it's pretty troublesome.

[AKTwinsFan]

Either way, if we dont start getting RBIs it's not gonna matter much anyhow. While giving up that many runs we only had like 12-13 runs while giving up 34! That's not a legit contender that's pro vs. amateur. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Western SD Fan said:

Welp.  This moved rather quickly.  I guess this comment is for the sake of the conversation.  I would have liked to see this trade happen.  Not only for the reasons stated above as an innings eater, an extra insurance policy for the rest of the staff in case they needed to put Ober on the IL or send SWR back down to St. Paul and hoping he could have been acquired cheaply.  I'm not sure how cheap he could have been acquired though as he is the only starter on the market today.  One final comment would have been the Twins could have used the same strategy they did with Jamie Garcia in 2017.  They traded for him when they thought they were in contention and when they thought they fell out of contention, they traded him again.  The Twins would have had a month to see whether they could figure it out, plenty of time to see if Civale would have stuck.

Reportedly going to.. the White Sox for Andrew Vaughn. Now we know what it would have taken. Probably Miranda and a throw in.

[Western SD Fan]

23 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Reportedly going to.. the White Sox for Andrew Vaughn. Now we know what it would have taken. Probably Miranda and a throw in.

This is from Baseball Trade Values.  Unless the CWS sent some money with Vaughn, it seems like we could have swung something like this.  I also wouldn't give up on Civale yet.  I expect the CWS to flip him before the trade deadline, so we get to see his progress on someone else's team before taking a run at him again.  Maybe by then, the rotation will be a little clearer on what we need.

[IndianaTwin]

Interesting tidbits from Civale's baseball-reference.com page, by the way. His "most similar by ages" score at age 27 and 28 is Joe Ryan. His "most similar through age 29" scores have Michael Pineda at No. 2 and Anthony DeSclafani at No. 3. 

At least I thought it was interesting. I guess interesting is in the eye of the beholder. 

[LambchoP]

I think we will see Morris and/or Maccaghen before anyone from outside the organization. I do think that at least one veteran SP is going to be acquired if the Twins decide they want to try to chase a wildcard spot. A rotation of Ryan, Paddack, Festa and SWR is not only not good enough, but it will blow out our bullpen by August probably.