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The Milwaukee Brewers promoted top prospect Jacob Misiorowski this week, which resulted in a shuffling of their rotation. The odd man out was right-handed starter Aaron Civale, who has made five starts for the club this season. At 30 years old, Civale isn't ready to become a bullpen arm and has formally requested a trade from the club. He hopes to land with someone who has a spot in the rotation, per The Athletic.
As it turns out, their rivals just five hours east on Interstate 94 have a need in their rotation. After losing Pablo López and Zebby Matthews to injury, would it make sense for the Minnesota Twins to acquire Civale?
Civale has struggled even by the standards of a back of the rotation arm. He's only pitched 22 innings total in his five starts, though the brevity of those outings isn't totally his fault. The Brewers have a tendency to use a quick hook with their starters. In those innings, he's posted a 4.91 ERA with a 5.53 FIP and a lowly 12.8% strikeout minus walk rate. While he’s shown an ability to limit hard contact, he's been susceptible to the long ball, allowing five home runs in a small body of work. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher who pitches to contact, spacious Target Field (coupled with a solid outfield defense) would actually be a good fit for Civale.
The former Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians starter has seven pitches in his arsenal, with his cutter traditionally being most often used and best offering. However, that hasn't been the case thus far in 2025, as the pitch currently has a -3 run value (RV), his worst pitch, possibly due to a new shape that has less vertical drop compared to previous seasons. He also leans on a sinker (25.1% usage), 4-seam fastball (14%), and a curveball (13%) while mixing in an occasional slider, split-finger, or sweeper. Aside from his cutter in 2024, he's more than a year removed from any other pitch in his arsenal producing a positive RV. In short, there isn't a lot to be excited about with his profile, but the Twins may just be desperate enough to take a shot on a pitcher who has had success in the past.
Needing to replace López and Matthews in the big-league rotation, the Twins recalled David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson to take their places. Two weeks ago, the Twins had enough starting pitching that people started speculating whether they may turn some of their arms into big-league bats. Now, the Twins are one injury away from having to rely on an arm that either isn't ready for the majors (Andrew Morris or Cory Lewis) or one that hasn't sustained success (Randy Dobnak). While Civale may not be exciting, he may be needed more than we’d like to admit. Especially when considering the performance of our rotation of late.
Woods Richardson, who’s made one start since being recalled, was roughed up by a below-average Texas Rangers offense on Tuesday. In 4 ⅔ innings of work he gave up seven hits, six earned runs, and walked three while striking out four. His ERA now sits at 5.74 after struggling to start the season. While we don't want to overreact to a small sample, more concerning than Woods Richardson may be Bailey Ober. After a solid April and May, the towering righty has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two outings. The reason for concern, though, is his diminished velocity which started in Spring Training. His fastball velocity this season is down 1.2 miles per hour from 2024 and in his most recent start it was down an additional 0.3 miles per hour. He's made it work for the most part, though after today’s start he suggested he's “struggling with hip issues and mechanics.” Definitely something to keep an eye on.
On the other hand, Festa has been productive in four of his five starts with the Twins. He was knocked around by the Athletics when he was first recalled but that could possibly be chalked up to extenuating circumstances, like flying across the country on short notice to make a start. The big thing for Festa will be to consistently pitch relatively deep into ball games - something that might be challenging for someone who has never pitched more than 124 innings in any one professional season.
Down on the farm, Morris has been inconsistent this season. In 11 starts with the Triple-A Saints, Morris has six with one earned or less but four starts with four earned runs or more. Lewis has been consistent in St. Paul, but not in the same way. Through nine appearances (six starts) the 25-year-old has a 9.42 ERA and 7.04 FIP. Finally, top prospect Marco Raya has also struggled with the Saints. While the Twins once were thought to have a plethora of pitching depth, that has been depleted in the matter of a week. One way or another, they're going to have to find depth externally and Civale may be just the right guy for the call.
No, Civale won't move the needle with Twins fans but it's hard not to see him as an upgrade over Woods Richardson. Given his production, profile, and contract it's likely he could be had for relatively cheap and the Twins would be remiss not to kick the tires on him.
Do you think the Twins should pursue the Civale? What would you give up for him? Join the conversation in the comments!
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